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Corona Virus in Chiang Mai


Kelsall

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Let us look at this with a bit of perspective. This particular strain seems to be a type of flu virus. In the US alone, 80,000 people died from the flu last year. Worldwide it is 291,000 to 646,000 people annually! The flu attacks the immune and respiratory systems, and those that are older, weaker, or the youth seem to be more susceptible. It is usually respiratory issues, linked to the flu. So far, with 6,000 cases and around 130 deaths, this is a mere blip on the screen, in terms of the devastation that the typical flu virus wreaks annually. So, no need to panic. Only a 3% mortality rate, and mostly older folks. 

 

However having said that, there is no avoiding panic, on the part of the public. And since Thailand is making zero effort to limit the amount of incoming tourists from China (numbers are everything here), it is bound to spread more, and tourism is going to take a massive hit. What the grossly incompetent authorities do not seem to get is that quantity over quality is never a good thing, unless you are selling one dollar items at a swap meet. It just lowers the quality of the experience for all. The tourism industry is teetering on the edge of a tragic drop, and has already been devastated by this highly destructive administration. All it needs now is a spread of this virus. It could crush millions of families dependent on tourism. 

 

Why take a chance? Who can trust the Thai authorities, and what they say? Why trust them? What have they done to earn that trust? And how many flights from China, are still coming into Thailand daily? That is a scary thought. I like the Chinese people, but do not want to be anywhere near them right now! My guess is that most of the world's people feel the same way, at this moment. 

 

An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

 

The CDC said between 291,000 and 646,000 people die from seasonal flu-linked respiratory illnesses. Earlier projections from the WHO of deaths from seasonal flu — 250,000 to 500,000 per year — “are outdated,” according to the study published Wednesday in The Lancet. 

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/cdc-says-more-people-die-of-influenza-worldwide-than-who-estimated

 

In a typical season most flu-related deaths occur among children and the elderly, both of whom are uniquely vulnerable. The immune system is an adaptive network of organs that learns how best to recognize and respond to threats over time. Because the immune systems of children are relatively naive, they may not respond optimally. In contrast the immune systems of the elderly are often weakened by a combination of age and underlying illness.

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-flu-actually-kill-people/

 

 

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Edited by spidermike007
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Just now, spidermike007 said:

So far, with 6,000 cases and around 130 deaths, this is a mere blip on the screen,

You have just stated that it is over 10 times as lethal as the regular US flu. I am assuming this in not what you want to say.

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1 hour ago, Dcheech said:

You have just stated that it is over 10 times as lethal as the regular US flu. I am assuming this in not what you want to say.

  Thank you.  Finally, we can get over this "but the regular flu kills more people each year".  It does but it also infects a hell of a lot more people each year.  The coronavirus mortality rate is significantly higher than "the regular US flu".  

Edited by TheAppletons
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2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

So far, with 6,000 cases and around 130 deaths, this is a mere blip on the screen, in terms of the devastation that the typical flu virus wreaks annually. So, no need to panic. Only a 3% mortality rate, and mostly older folks.

Good post, but this is just the beginning. This started what just in the past month? What will the stats be in 6 months? As others have reported, Sars lasted almost a year.

People are starting to panic and it will just get worse.

Edited by bkk6060
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Just now, bkk6060 said:

Good post, but this is just the beginning. This started what just in the past month? As others have reported, Sars lasted almost a year.

People are starting to panic and it will just get worse.

Of course they will - they all read and believe every word on Fakebook

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There is little point comparing the number of flu cases to those of a new virus, that still shows exponential growth despite the precautionary and very restrictive measures (e,g. millions under travel ban) applied.

 

It is encouraging though that the mortality rate is significantly lower than what we've seen with SARS and MERS.

Edited by XGM
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1 hour ago, Dcheech said:

You have just stated that it is over 10 times as lethal as the regular US flu. I am assuming this in not what you want to say.

No. It is not even close to the standard flu levels of mortality. Far lower. This appears to be a low grade virus.

 

During the 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. During the past five seasons, the average number of weeks this indicator was above threshold was 11 (range of 7 to 15 weeks). Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm

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Maya/Nimman.

Eerie feeling here today around lunch time.

There were people eating at the bottom food court at Maya.  The top food court which is usually crowded maybe 4 people.

The rest of the place was basically empty.  Even Starbuck's empty.  Streets around Nimman not many people. The bottom photo is the main Nimman road usually many people walking to lunch or coffee.

I have never seen it like this.

Could be the low period after Chin. New Year?

Or the virus scare?

 

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26 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My misses just cancelled a table for ten at a restaurant popular with Chinese (near Ruam Chok Rimping).

She says no point in taking the risk. It would have been a free meal for me, but I'm OK missing it.

Get it to go.   ????

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2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

My misses just cancelled a table for ten at a restaurant popular with Chinese (near Ruam Chok Rimping).

She says no point in taking the risk. It would have been a free meal for me, but I'm OK missing it.

Ruam Chok Rimping Chinatown? Has anybody given any thought to Chinatown, London? All those casinos and eateries? I hear from the UK no preventative measures in that area yet. Heathrow began screening a fortnight ago but we know that's not full proof. Not sure about Hubei travellers to the UK, not as many as here I bet.

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china learned to be open about the outbreak /after the sars outbreak/ like here they kept it quiet 

i wish they will be open here/ not so far /telling local people to only allow Bangkok to put out reports

i was here on sars outbreak taksin told them to keep quiet as would affect tourist coming here 

i went to stay in Malaysia /they were open /thinking about there people /it hurt there economy real bad 

as a friend there had to shut her hairdressing shop  /when i came back here they were still silent about sars outbreak they should know all virus  outbreaks  have to be reported to w/h/o/

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

 

 

Hot off the press: 

This bodes poorly for white folks,  but much worse for asians.
 
 
East Asians have more receptors (over 5 times more) favoring the viral process, specifically ACE2-expressing cells.

 

East Asian A=1.00
African A=0.988
South Asian A=0.82
American A=0.79
Europe A=0.66
Edited by samuttodd
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My wife told me that a Chinese woman died in CM a few days back.  Makes me wonder if the Thai press and the English-language press are publishing different stories.  Anything and everything to protect 'tourism'?   And yet every expat here is considered a national security risk.  But the welcome mat is still out for the sought after Chinese big-spenders.  Amazing Thailand.

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On 1/24/2020 at 2:29 PM, Krataiboy said:

Don't panic!  You're far more likely to die on Thailand's deadly roads than as a victim of the latest "global epidemic".

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/01/24/man-who-pushed-sars-dud-now-pushing-new-chinese-virus/

But I also agreed with this.  Your much more likely to die or be messed up for life by driving on Thai roads.  60 people a day die and how many hundreds injured on Thai roads each day!  - and nobody bats and eye-lash.  Keep it in perspective. 

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imho, there is not enough solid data, yet, to engage in apocalyptic extrapolation; there is enough data to warrant the mobilization of resources going on now, and intense use of public health services, scientific scrutiny, etc.

 

While we don't know all the behind-the-scenes activities in China, it does appear that they are handling this in a very different way than they handled SARS.

 

One thing for sure is that a variety of actors (states, groups) are spinning/fabricating the news we get with a variety of agendas.

 

As Rene Dubos pointed out in his seminal 1959 book, "The Mirage of Health," one of the major factors (equal to antibiotics, he proposes) in the decline of the mortality rate from tuberculosis/pneumonia in the 1920's was the mutation that made the virus less deadly.

 

To know we do not know is not ... ignorance. To not question what we read, hear, and observe is ... stupidity. To stop being curious is  ...fatal. To infer a piece of hail falling on our head is the sky falling is ... human nature ????

 

o:37;

 

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2 hours ago, Throatwobbler said:

In two weeks time this will have blown over and people will have stopped talking about it.

 

It seems reasonable to assume the dead won't be talking about it.

 

~o:37;

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