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Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

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40 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No,  it does not make the global mortality rate 2.3%. As you rightly point out in the later part of your post scientists estimate that the actual number of infected people is much greater than China has stated, around 100,000. A mortality of around 100 would mean that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 0.1%, exactly the same as influenza.

 

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

 

Indeed SARS had a mortality rate of 10%, but you forget that, crucially, it failed to spread among humans to the same degree as influenza.

 

The same goes for MERS. Like MERS and SARS the coronavirus originated among animals and is not yet adapted to spread among humans, something the influenza virus has done for many hundreds of years. Hence the much wider and consistent spreading of influenza. If influenza kills 500,000 people a year and you were not worried, why are you now worried about the coronavirus? It has the exact same mortality rate as influenza. I do not understand why you seem so concerned.

 

Yes, R naught estimates were as high as 5, but the accepted figure is now 3. Either way, these are all guesstimates about an unknown figure. A figure which can not be truly known until the pandemic is over.

 

Of course for those personally affected it's a crisis. Is it a crisis for me and you? No. What are the chances you and I will be personally affected? Slim to unknown. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. Certainly not as likely as dying of influenza. By a long shot.

 

And btw, I don't believe the Chinese wanted to cover this up, all their actions point to the exact opposite. They're doing what they can. It is too early to know if their measures will have any effect or not. 

 

Either way, if you were not worried about 500,000 deaths each year from influenza, why worry about 100 deaths from a new animal flu mutation? It does not seem proportionate.

 

Anyway, that a virus is infectious during the incubation period is nothing new, it is just unusual for a respiratory disease. Yes it makes containment harder. But even the last real pandemic in 2009, well it had over 500,000 deaths, again flu, but the world carried on and most people don't even remember it now. 

 

This is a media and social media panic. Not a crisis, unless you are personally affected. It  c o u l d  cause a financial crisis if the social media and media panic continues to be spread, in spite of all the evidence.

We are ALL personally affected by this simply as members of the global community.  Maybe our physical health is not threatened...yet.  But what about sense of well being and personal safety, what about our emotional reaction to this.  What about our sense of compassion for those who ARE being affected by this in a very real and physical way right now?

 

Those things play a big role in everyone's life, and something like this challenges the peace of mind of any caring individual, whether or not it is happening in your own backyard.

 

This is indeed a disaster!  Aside from the dead and those infected by the virus to date, over 50 million people's live have been affected with lockdown and quarantine.  That fits the definition of "disaster" in my book.

 

What has happened in China could easily spread to Thailand, or the United States, or anywhere in the world especially when those in political power make stupid or compromised decisions such as the Chinese did in this case.

 

China could have circumvented this disaster last month but ignored the potential seriousness of the first reported cases in Wuhan.  Now it becomes the problem of the global community when it needn't have been.

 

You seem to downplay the significance and potential of pandemics like this or SARS.  I do not.  I am not saying that the Wuhan coronavirus will be a disaster of epic proportions but any novel virus like this easily has the potential to be just that if proper actions are not take quickly and decisively.

 

The Chinese government blew it big time!  How will the Thai government respond with this problem truly on our back doorstep?  How will other nations respond?  THAT is the real question and my real concern.

 

As regards SARS, The only reason it was not a epic crisis is mainly that transmission of the virus did not occur during the incubation period but only occured after symptoms presented themselves.  Such is not the case with 019-nCoV.  To me, that's a real concern.  How can you deny the potential of what this virus could do on a global scale if things got out of hand?

 

FYI, I'm not getting any of my information from social media or sources pandering for ratings through sensationalism.  Most of what I read is from various global national health organizations and recognized scientific journals. 

 

I am very selective about what I consider to be reliable sources, and it sounds like you are too.  Not really sure why we have such a difference of opinion on this to be honest

 

 

Edited by WaveHunter

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God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

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5 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

That, essentially, is the crux of the whole problem in China, not only with this virus but many other things happening in China such as their interaction Hong Kong  and Taiwan, their Belt and Road Initiative, etc... . 

 

CCP Party goals and the Chinese concept of "face" always seem to override moral responsibility.  Sad really because China is really a great nation and so are its' people.

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21 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

We are ALL personally affected by this simply as members of the global community.  Maybe our physical health is not threatened...yet.  But what about sense of well being and personal safety, what about our emotional reaction to this.  What about our sense of compassion for those who ARE being affected by this in a very real and physical way right now?

 

Those things play a big role in everyone's life, and something like this challenges the peace of mind of any caring individual, whether or not it is happening in your own backyard.

 

What has happened in China could easily spread to Thailand, or the United States, or anywhere in the world especially when those in political power make stupid or compromised decisions.

 

That's exactly what happened in China last month when the government ignored the potential seriousness of the first reported cases in Wuhan.  Now it becomes the problem of the global community when it needn't have been.

 

You seem to downplay the significance and potential of pandemics like this or SARS.  I do not.  I am not saying that the Wuhan coronavirus will be a disaster of epic proportions but any novel virus like this easily has the potential to be just that if proper actions are not take quickly and decisively.

 

The Chinese government blew it big time!  How will the Thai government respond with this problem truly on our back doorstep?  How will other nations respond?  THAT is the real question and my real concern.

 

As regards SARS, The only reason it was not a epic crisis is mainly that transmission of the virus did not occur during the incubation period but only occured after symptoms presented themselves.  Such is not the case with 019-nCoV.  To me, that's a real concern.  How can you deny the potential of what this virus could do on a global scale if things got out of hand?

 

FYI, I'm not getting any of my information from social media or sources pandering for ratings through sensationalism.  Most of what I read is from various global national health organizations and recognized scientific journals. 

 

I am very selective about what I consider to be reliable sources, and it sounds like you are too.  Not really sure why we have such a difference of opinion on this to be honest

 

 

We are not affected in a serious way, though are we? We are not dying of lung disease. We are not locked down in Chiang Mai. So yes, we may not be able to buy pollution masks anymore, but my sense of well being is in  no way diminished nor my feeling of personal safety. And as much as I struggle to conjure up an emotional reaction to complete strangers in Wuhan struggling with lung disease, I fail miserably. We are not seriously affected, are we?

 

Let's say it does happen in Thailand. We have 100 deaths of lung disease in Chiang Mai. Or whatever figure it may be. Provided it is well within the 500,000 global total we saw in 2009 how will it affect me more than a few road deaths? It will not. 

 

Even if a pandemic of serious proportions happens globally our socieites are large enough, robust enough and advanced enough to survive. As we have seen time and time again with pandemics.

 

See, I don't think there will be a disaster of epic proportions. This is an animal flu virus mutation. We saw with Sars and Mers, they don't go for long. Even if they do, there are for more dangerous things. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

God forbid the Chinese Gov't lose face by admitting that there may be a problem.

They have admitted there is a problem. They're doing what they can.

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41 minutes ago, samuttodd said:

 

 

 

From the dean of Medicine

 

 

Well in all seriousness that does it for me.  This guy knows what he's talking about and notice that both of them are wearing masks.  They're the experts and they must think masks are a good idea.

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28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

They have admitted there is a problem. They're doing what they can.

 

Have they admitted the real extent of the problem though ?? Are they doing everything that could be done to prevent further spreading ??

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31 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Even if a pandemic of serious proportions happens globally our socieites are large enough, robust enough and advanced enough to survive. As we have seen time and time again with pandemics.

 

You don't mind a little cul, then ?

 

33 minutes ago, Logosone said:

See, I don't think there will be a disaster of epic proportions. This is an animal flu virus mutation. We saw with Sars and Mers, they don't go for long. Even if they do, there are for more dangerous things. 

 

Glad to see an optimistic psychic in these parts, relieved to know that this virus' unique (for coronaviruses, so far) ability to infect before symptoms appear (incubation period) should not concern us.

 

~o:37;

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49 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Have they admitted the real extent of the problem though ?? Are they doing everything that could be done to prevent further spreading ??

 

Too early to say. I can tell you in a few months or a year.

 

41 minutes ago, orang37 said:

 

You don't mind a little cul, then ?

 

 

Glad to see an optimistic psychic in these parts, relieved to know that this virus' unique (for coronaviruses, so far) ability to infect before symptoms appear (incubation period) should not concern us.

 

~o:37;

 

What is the biggest drain by far on any country's resources? Pension payments. Every country has to incur gigantic debts in the capital markets just to pay what the elderly claim in pensions. To say nothing of the spending on health, the vast majority of which goes on the elderly. The biggest issue, fiscally speaking, is that the old are living longer and growing in numbers, and living at the cost of the young, and younger taxpayers. And out of the blue, voila, a number of viruses that disproportionately, almost selectively kill off these elderly. You can't make this stuff up.

 

What my opinion is of this, it does not matter in the big scheme of things. But it is a curious coincidence, don't you think?

 

I'm not a psychic, but given the fact that SARS, by all accounts far deadlier than Cov, killed 800, given the fact that both SARS and MERS failed to infect at a rate even remotely resembling that of influenza, and that the very real and gigantic influenza pandemics, say of 2009 killed around half a million people, a fact that is barely remembered now, I think it is safe to say that the likelihood of a disaster of epic proportions has arrived in the form of Cov is exceedingly slim. I'm not losing sleep at night over this. Maybe you are, but I think that will prove to be an overreaction. Just my view.

 

And btw, it is not unique for a virus to infect during incubation. It is just unusual for a virus that leads to respiratory disease. Sure, it does not help in the containment, but even if the worst happens and there is a large pandemic the likelihood of the Cov coming close to the kills of influenza is very, very small. 

 

So if we were not worried before about 500,000 deaths EVERY year due to influenza, why should we panic over 100 or so deaths from Cov? I don't think we should.

Edited by Logosone

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Problem, reaction, solution.   Mass vaccinations coming. Travel restrictions etc.

 

Go look at flight tracker. Wuhan is not locked down. Smoke and mirrors psyop. The elites are not going to release something they can't control.

 

People are going to get sick but it's activated thru the eye. See how they kind of tell the truth and say it's transmitted by the eye?  People will get sick from their screens/smart phones that can create symptoms. image.png.c6304998fca8d0670a2ea62687a0cfc5.png

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As is historically the case, China is very good at reacting to a crisis but very poor at preventing one.

 

China has a very poor track record at dealing proactively with such issues as the current Wuhan coronavirus. During the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003, officials covered up the extent of the crisis, delaying the response. The Chinese government has promised far more transparency this time, and the World Health Organization has praised its cooperation with scientists, yet mistrust of the local and national authorities, compounded by missteps and mistakes in handling the current situation, runs deep.

 

China’s initial delay in reporting cases back in early December are an example of its rigidly hierarchical bureaucracy which discourages local officials from raising bad news with central bosses whose help they might need. And it silos those officials off from one another, making it harder to see, much less manage, the full scope of spiraling crises.

 

By the time that the central government hears about it, it’s already become a huge problem.

 

The Wuhan coronavirus, like other health crises before it, is bringing out some of the deepest flaws and contradictions in a Chinese system that, for all its historic feats, remains a work in progress.

 

Those flaws, which have long frustrated Chinese leaders, appear to have played a role in everything from the pace at which officials responded to the coronavirus outbreak, to China’s yearslong inability to address the health risks that experts have long warned could lead to an outbreak just like this one.

 

While the country is now mobilizing a nationwide response — one of the system’s strengths — the incident is already a lesson in the political weak points that can bring grave consequences for China and, as infections spread, the global community.

 

When you look at the coronavirus, it looks a lot like what happened with SARS. It involves a very similar template.

 

The SARS epidemic, which killed hundreds of people in 2002 and 2003, initially spread unchecked when local Chinese officials minimized early reports.  Their fear was not public unrest, it later emerged, but getting in trouble with the party bosses who controlled their careers.

 

Guan Yi, a professor of infectious diseases in Hong Kong who helped identify SARS, has accused Chinese authorities of once more delaying action, including obstructing his own efforts to investigate the Wuhan outbreak, and his informed opinion of the current situation is not too encouraging.  In fact it is quite dire.  Google it!

 

This is a continuous theme in central-local relations in China. You do not want to be the one to bring bad news.  It leads officials on both sides of the center-local divide to do many counterproductive, irrational things.

 

At the same time, China’s quasi-imperial system leaves the top party bosses in Beijing with little direct power over what happens in the provinces — policy proclamations are sometimes ignored or defied — other than promoting or punishing subordinates.

 

The two ends of the system are engaged in a constant push-pull dynamic, putting them occasionally at odds — particularly in moments of crisis, when each is looking to blame the other.

 

This has been an issue throughout China’s modern history.  Once a clear problem has emerged, it’s very good at diverting resources (i.e.: building a 1,000 bed hospital specifically to deal with the Wuhan coronavirus IN ONLY 10 DAYS) but it’s not good at dealing with emerging problems. So it’s built to be reactive instead of proactive.

 

This needs to change.  When it comes to pandemics such as this, we are ALL part of a borderless global community and we should ALL share concern.

 

Edited by WaveHunter
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9 hours ago, CobraSnakeNecktie said:

Problem, reaction, solution.  

 

Go look at flight tracker. Wuhan is not locked down. Smoke and mirrors psyop. The elites are not going to release something they can't control.

 

People are going to get sick but it's activated thru the eye. See how they kind of tell the truth and say it's transmitted by the eye?  People will get sick from their screens/smart phones that can create symptoms. image.png.c6304998fca8d0670a2ea62687a0cfc5.png

I ain't saying you are wrong, Absolutely dead on with the Hegelian dialect.    but I believe any mucous membrane or body tissue that secretes fluid makes a favorable environment for passing viral pathogens (bacterial and microbial too).    Sinus tissue,  all of the digestive tract,  the eyes, and reproductive gear.

 

It is time for full body condoms and more than arm length distance dancing partners.

Edited by samuttodd

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Thank you for your insight about China WaveHunter. It is a good way to learn about the country.

 

You have to see the good things. Also about coronavirus. We can finally wear a mask without looking weird. Without people thinking we are strange people. Thailands non-stop burning season leaves me no option. But finally, Thai people accept us wearing a mask and think it is because of the virus.

 

The main reason I wear a mask outside is the air pollution. Luckily I have around 70 masks here from my last shopping trip. I am reading it is difficult to get them now, though I am not sure if that is true or hysteria.

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I was all set to go out and paddle the kayak,  but today the air is choking and thick with nasty blue smog.   What a drag.

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