URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, impulse said: But is the disease the disaster, or the panic? We won't have long to wait for that answer. Maybe China have over reacted and caused mass panic or maybe they haven't. I so want the panic scenario to be the true story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impulse Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, zydeco said: But there is a flu vaccine. Which every year becomes obsolete, and the new one is based on all the people who present themselves sick. Like they're working on now for this coronavirus. As bad as SARS was, it killed less than 1000 people worldwide. That was a coronavirus. Edited January 25, 2020 by impulse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelsall Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, impulse said: But is the disease the disaster, or the panic? You have a point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elkski Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Its prefab buildings for a quick hospital. Probably come with medical gear and bed and linens like that giant cruise ship that's being built. But still requires a big power drop and water and sewar system. Sad part is its needed. Sounds like CCP blocked and withheld information for first 3-4 weeks on this including arresting some who posted about this new sickness. I don't think WHO has caught on yet. I thought the twitter post by the Harvard epidemiologist was good. So many unknowns but the RO of even 2.5 is 2 times the flu and sars was like .75 so 3.8 is 8 times wars plus he felt it was way to late for containment. If you read it correctly the mathematical models show that containment is one of the most important things to prevent the initial Spike. He basically said oh my God the cat is out of the bag and we have no vaccine and the kill rate is pretty high as well as the high RO. One of the initial cases infected 14 people including medical staff. So this virus has what is called Super shredder patients. I do realize the common flu kills many people each day and I will keep that in mind and I hope this blows over with minimal impact But 40 million in lock down?? There was also a CNN reporter who talked about how they snuck out in the early morning hours because they had eight hour notice of the quarantine and they flew out with many thousands and thousands of people. If you saw some of the videos with what looks like 500 people in the hallways of a hospital willing to stand there to try to get served yelling and screaming some of them falling down they weren't faking their symptoms so they could be in the last place you would go to prevent infection. These cities are all many times bigger than Bangkok how many hospitals does Bangkok have so how many hospitals had panicking people coming in like this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traubert Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 47 minutes ago, zydeco said: Such a deadheaded response, because you didn't go back to read my original message. My response at that time was that this virus was different from traditional flu because regular flu does have a vaccine. You are being substantially disingenuous. No, you're quite right I didn't. Mea culpa. I shall endeavour and do my utmost not to be substantially disingenuous in future. If you endeavour to stop presenting as a unreconstructed Sinophobe and join the 21st century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenl Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 29 minutes ago, URMySunshine said: We won't have long to wait for that answer. Maybe China have over reacted and caused mass panic or maybe they haven't. I so want the panic scenario to be the true story. It is not China causing the panic, it is the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Just spoke to my nephew he says he's sticking to WHO advice rather than unsubstantiated rumour at the moment. He thinks maybe they undereacted and then overreacted and the panic might be worse than the disease. He's told his wife to stay at home and only do essential trips out though and his 3 schools in Quanzhou stand to lose £10k a week if this goes on and he has to shut them down. He also says anyone with any connections will have long since fled Wuhan and they might be shutting down the city as much to stop gatherings and riots as much as to stop the transmission. he looks at "freewechat" some site that shows what is being censored and says that Weibo and WeChat have been substantially cleaned up of stuff that we have seen over the last few days - more PRC heroism stuff and the people pulling together, He also joked that this would be a brilliant move by other powers to hole China in an asymmetric war. Panic over - for the time being. But there is a buying window for face masks and hand gel I intend to use that tomorrow. Just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Conspiracy post reported and removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, stevenl said: It is not China causing the panic, it is the people. From another forum regarding the crying doctor from Wuhan message. The voice mail can be true without all the facts in it being true.For example, there is unlikely to be a way for medical staff there to know that 100,000 people are infected. Methods could be used to estimate that number, but there is no way that order of magnitude of people have actually been tested for this coronavirus. And there are so many other common illnesses that will have similar symptoms in all but the really serious cases.Medical staff themselves are not immune to panic, and they are probably being asked to deal with an impossible situation with a scary order of magnitude. That doesnt mean they are in a position to properly judge the actual order of magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Traubert Posted January 25, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, Elkski said: Its prefab buildings for a quick hospital. Probably come with medical gear and bed and linens like that giant cruise ship that's being built. But still requires a big power drop and water and sewar system. Sad part is its needed. Sounds like CCP blocked and withheld information for first 3-4 weeks on this including arresting some who posted about this new sickness. I don't think WHO has caught on yet. I thought the twitter post by the Harvard epidemiologist was good. So many unknowns but the RO of even 2.5 is 2 times the flu and sars was like .75 so 3.8 is 8 times wars plus he felt it was way to late for containment. If you read it correctly the mathematical models show that containment is one of the most important things to prevent the initial Spike. He basically said oh my God the cat is out of the bag and we have no vaccine and the kill rate is pretty high as well as the high RO. One of the initial cases infected 14 people including medical staff. So this virus has what is called Super shredder patients. I do realize the common flu kills many people each day and I will keep that in mind and I hope this blows over with minimal impact But 40 million in lock down?? There was also a CNN reporter who talked about how they snuck out in the early morning hours because they had eight hour notice of the quarantine and they flew out with many thousands and thousands of people. If you saw some of the videos with what looks like 500 people in the hallways of a hospital willing to stand there to try to get served yelling and screaming some of them falling down they weren't faking their symptoms so they could be in the last place you would go to prevent infection. These cities are all many times bigger than Bangkok how many hospitals does Bangkok have so how many hospitals had panicking people coming in like this? Mate I've got a bridge for sale. It's cheap so you'll have to be fast....... Divide 1.4bn by 40m and you start to see what a small proportion of China we're talking about. My city is the same size as London and nobody has even heard of it. You don't think the authorities put in the blockade BEFORE they announced it? You don't think that's why they announced it at 10am because they were already in place? This is China, they're not green. They know their people. I could address the rest, and I largely have in the last few days but we're down to quoting Twitter now so it's casting pearls amongst swine. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) Back to mainstreamish...this pretty much reflects what the twitter doc was saying with the usual caveats. The models they constructed predict a dire start to February: further outbreaks in other Chinese cities, more infections exported abroad, and an explosion of cases in Wuhan. “In 14 days’ time, our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190,000,” the authors write. https://www.wired.com/story/scientists-predict-wuhans-outbreak-will-get-much-worse/ Edited January 25, 2020 by URMySunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 For info nerds that want to see what China's internet censors are censoring freeWechat - info courtesy of my nephew. https://www.opentech.fund/results/supported-projects/freewechat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opl Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) A second hospital will have a capacity of 1,300 beds, which will add to the 1,000 beds of the first hospital (construction within 10 days had been announced on Friday) Edited January 25, 2020 by Opl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, URMySunshine said: Back to mainstreamish...this pretty much reflects what the twitter doc was saying with the usual caveats. The models they constructed predict a dire start to February: further outbreaks in other Chinese cities, more infections exported abroad, and an explosion of cases in Wuhan. “In 14 days’ time, our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190,000,” the authors write. https://www.wired.com/story/scientists-predict-wuhans-outbreak-will-get-much-worse/ For any who doubt wired.com, here is the original scientific paper from where the information comes from. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Still, it's research and simulation, not necessarily what will happen, but what could well happen. Edited January 25, 2020 by rabas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rabas Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, Opl said: A second hospital will have a capacity of 1,300 beds, which will add to the 1,000 beds of the first hospital (construction within 10 days had been announced on Friday) History, first pandemic measured by the number hospitals constructed per week. Has anyone thought this just might be China's finest hour? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 12 hours ago, car720 said: I have just spoken with staff at my local hospital in Sichuan and all doctors are told they must take part in a lottery to decide who will go. Every hospital in China the same. They will have the staff. Transport with gun-toting soldiers hanging about probably will help with their recruiting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 14 minutes ago, Opl said: A second hospital will have a capacity of 1,300 beds, which will add to the 1,000 beds of the first hospital (construction within 10 days had been announced on Friday) Here is the state sponsored version I http://t.cn/A6PUDINU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: Transport with gun-toting soldiers hanging about probably will help with their recruiting.... I hope the world is supplying all the material they need to fight this. We all need to pull together as the human race for a virus respects no races or borders and shows us how vulnerable, we the most evolved animal on the planet are to this the most primitive form of life. Edited January 25, 2020 by URMySunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallGuyJohninBKK Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, rabas said: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 So the authors are mostly from Lancaster University in the UK, and the article hasn't as yet been peer reviewed. Quote Dr Jonathan Read Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics Research Overview My research interests focus on understanding the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases. A substantial part of this interest lies in understanding transmission patterns and their relation to networks of interaction between hosts. This has motivated the development of methods and ways to measure social contact patterns, to improve population-scale and individual-based models of transmission. I am also intersted in understanding the behavioural responses of people to infections and epidemics, as well as interaction patterns at larger spatial scales and human mobility modelling. https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/people-profiles/jonathan-read It does look like he has quite a long history in his field, and appears to have participated in past research on various disease transmission issues in China. Edited January 25, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said: So the authors are mostly from Lancaster University in the UK, and the article hasn't been peer reviewed. True but they are getting info out there and adding to the pool of data - more learned ones will follow. The internet at its worst spreads panic and despair (sorry) but at it's best crowdsources a thousand or more brains to solve a problem. There is hope and the Chang is kicking in. The last paragraph of that article is one of the most important: Read and his coauthors acknowledge that at this point all predictions are shaky, given the limited information available. But with an outbreak that’s moving as fast as this one, models like theirs are often the best tools available for public health officials to decide how to combat what’s coming next. Edited January 25, 2020 by URMySunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URMySunshine Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Apparently there has long been a game where you try to destroy the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 1 hour ago, rabas said: History, first pandemic measured by the number hospitals constructed per week. Has anyone thought this just might be China's finest hour? This is China's great moment to show to the rest of the world, how effective it can be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenl Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 15 minutes ago, URMySunshine said: Apparently there has long been a game where you try to destroy the world. There are quite a few similar games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masterpasser Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 14 hours ago, heybuz said: By adding calcium chloride to the mix it will set in about 2 hrs. It will hasten initial set , but strength will not have developed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisisrascal Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 2 hours ago, TheDark said: This is China's great moment to show to the rest of the world, how effective it can be. With respect the time for China to do that would have been last month when this virus first broke. Instead, the local Wuhan government arrested those who tried to warn about it and organised huge banquets to say that it was no big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDark Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, thisisrascal said: With respect the time for China to do that would have been last month when this virus first broke. Instead, the local Wuhan government arrested those who tried to warn about it and organised huge banquets to say that it was no big deal. We all should know the story of the boy who called the wolf. There is a good reason, why each and every flu epidemic is not yelled through the media as "This is going to kill us all!". If that should happen, we all would have reacted to this news as "Oh yeah, one of those daily zombie invasion news again". Where is your claim "Instead, the local Wuhan government arrested those who tried to warn about it and organised huge banquets to say that it was no big deal." coming from? That sounds ridiculous claim, but I'm all fine to change my mind provided I can get reliable proof of your claim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tifino Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 11 hours ago, Opl said: A second hospital will have a capacity of 1,300 beds, which will add to the 1,000 beds of the first hospital (construction within 10 days had been announced on Friday) looks like they are building on a swamp? hope maybe the 4th one will stay up and after this all blows over - the building gets razed by inbuilt Charges, to encapsulate the last evidence - the building becomes either a massive resort? or cheap housing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisisrascal Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, TheDark said: We all should know the story of the boy who called the wolf. There is a good reason, why each and every flu epidemic is not yelled through the media as "This is going to kill us all!". If that should happen, we all would have reacted to this news as "Oh yeah, one of those daily zombie invasion news again". Where is your claim "Instead, the local Wuhan government arrested those who tried to warn about it and organised huge banquets to say that it was no big deal." coming from? That sounds ridiculous claim, but I'm all fine to change my mind provided I can get reliable proof of your claim. No buddy, had precautions been put in place last month then it could, most likely would, have been far less damaging that it is right now and will prove to be in the coming weeks. As for the claim of the huge banquet, it's here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLp8CHeKQkI Skip to minute 4. Edited January 26, 2020 by thisisrascal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 19 hours ago, Traubert said: If you endeavour to stop presenting as a unreconstructed Sinophobe and join the 21st century. I'm not a Sinophobe at all. In fact, I like Chinese, meaning those from the PRC as well as Taiwan and Hong Kong. I do not like the Communist police state apparatus and its lies, aggression, and totalitarian control over the media. In fact, I came out of retirement to teach PRC graduate students, because they had what I consider an eager and open desire to learn new things, unlike the entitled brats I taught at American universities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zaZa9 Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 Cant they just move them to one of those big unused cities Im always seeing on You Tube ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now