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Thai Baht dropping


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Adapt to a strengthening B or fantasize about droppings and time zones or frames.

 

Baht strength continues until

1) the auto-plant restart (floods of 2011) subsidies exist and

2) JPY rates remain at -0.1% with the THB rates at 1.25% and NZD rates at 1%

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For 2020, I think we will keep a floor of 30.0-30.1 and a ceiling of 31.5 for the USD, barring some really bad additional developments with the broader economy.  Essentially stabilization.  To get back in the 35 neighborhood would require pretty significant turmoil in Thailand and likely stagnation in China.

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The Thai baht is so sttong that i have come to believe that even when the country suffers with disasters the baht just keeps on getting stronger.

I have watched the gbp go from 75 to 38 baht and don't think a Chinese virus will alter it.

Probably make the baht even stronger.

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The Chinese are not going to announce tomorrow that the virus has been contained. It would take weeks to be sure even if was contained tomorrow. Visits to Thailand will continue at a slower pace and worries will continue. Investors don't like uncertainty. Barring an exploding contagion, look for a slow slide, not a plunge, to 32.5 by March 1, then reassess the situation. Look for a slow recovery in tourist numbers, especially with high season winding down. Aside: Remove the bras for songkran and let the party begin!

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3 hours ago, kwak250 said:

The Thai baht is so sttong that i have come to believe that even when the country suffers with disasters the baht just keeps on getting stronger.

I have watched the gbp go from 75 to 38 baht and don't think a Chinese virus will alter it.

Probably make the baht even stronger.

I think all of this has more to do with all of the currency weakness everywhere courtesy of the central banks. The GBP got hammered the most because brexit was added onto devalued currency. The Thai's need to devalue their currency too or their economy will keep going downhill. 

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Yes...THB is weakening as an overreaction to the virus. A welcome overreaction indeed, but still an overreaction IMO. I've taken advantage of the recent "pop" of the USD against the THB these past couple days, as not expecting it to last overly long, but hoping THB keeps on falling. If so, will exchange more of my stash of USD. 

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Baht hit 31 earlier today.  This is all because of the virus.  We hung around 30 for months and one virus scare has us at 31 in a matter of a few days.  This is serious biz for Thailand.  I was in Central World last night and it was EMPTY!!  (for a BKK mall).  I expect this trend will continue-no tourists and a nervous bunch of technocrats finally getting off their collective asses and doing what has been long overdue.  Next stop-32.

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7 minutes ago, LALes said:

Baht hit 31 earlier today.  This is all because of the virus.  We hung around 30 for months and one virus scare has us at 31 in a matter of a few days.  This is serious biz for Thailand.  I was in Central World last night and it was EMPTY!!  (for a BKK mall).  I expect this trend will continue-no tourists and a nervous bunch of technocrats finally getting off their collective asses and doing what has been long overdue.  Next stop-32.

As of 10AM Wensday morning 1/29/20  

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17 hours ago, shackleton said:

Will wait until after the 31st January 2020

Then see how the pound sterling reacts to Brexit

Not holding my breath but hoping

For the best on a rise against the Baht on the exchange rate 

Time to wake up olde chap.  The current rate was baked into the EU withdrawal with the last UK election predictions, over a month ago.  

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18 hours ago, kwak250 said:

I have watched the gbp go from 75 to 38 baht and don't think a Chinese virus will alter it.

Probably make the baht even stronger

Agree, Baht was 76 to the pound when I came since then DOWN.

The Thais took advice following the Asian Financial Crisis and the baht has been on the up & up.

 

John 

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8 hours ago, jonwilly said:

Agree, Baht was 76 to the pound when I came since then DOWN.

The Thais took advice following the Asian Financial Crisis and the baht has been on the up & up.

 

John 

If you'd come a bit earlier it would have been 35bht to the pound.

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