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Ok guys and gals with Thailand's tourist business under real threat from this Virus.  How long do you think it will be b4 it starts dropping. And to what levels and what time zone?

 

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Troll/off topic remarks removed.

 

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Adapt to a strengthening B or fantasize about droppings and time zones or frames.

 

Baht strength continues until

1) the auto-plant restart (floods of 2011) subsidies exist and

2) JPY rates remain at -0.1% with the THB rates at 1.25% and NZD rates at 1%

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For 2020, I think we will keep a floor of 30.0-30.1 and a ceiling of 31.5 for the USD, barring some really bad additional developments with the broader economy.  Essentially stabilization.  To get back in the 35 neighborhood would require pretty significant turmoil in Thailand and likely stagnation in China.

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Beggar  The Bahht has not dropped enough as yet give it 2 more week to see the real costs to Thailand start to appear.

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Well.. the Bt is dropping against the $US at the moment.. but quite a few factors besides the virus causing the drop.. how far will it go?.. good question..  as they say 'how long is a piece of string'...

 

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On 1/27/2020 at 12:54 AM, CharlieH said:

Troll/off topic remarks removed.

 

Incredible just yesterday the Thai leader said it was 100% under control and there was only 6 people suffering I think. Maybe he meant 100% increase per day 😂

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The Thai baht is so sttong that i have come to believe that even when the country suffers with disasters the baht just keeps on getting stronger.

I have watched the gbp go from 75 to 38 baht and don't think a Chinese virus will alter it.

Probably make the baht even stronger.

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The Chinese are not going to announce tomorrow that the virus has been contained. It would take weeks to be sure even if was contained tomorrow. Visits to Thailand will continue at a slower pace and worries will continue. Investors don't like uncertainty. Barring an exploding contagion, look for a slow slide, not a plunge, to 32.5 by March 1, then reassess the situation. Look for a slow recovery in tourist numbers, especially with high season winding down. Aside: Remove the bras for songkran and let the party begin!

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Will wait until after the 31st January 2020

Then see how the pound sterling reacts to Brexit

Not holding my breath but hoping

For the best on a rise against the Baht on the exchange rate 

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