Thailand to screen arrivals from China as tally of virus infections hits 14

[sawadee1947]

23 hours ago, Ireland32 said:

Why are they being allowed to enter , Malaysia saying CANNOT 

That's a hypothetic question. 

Every Chinese (as any other tourist) means money. 

No matter if you're sick. 

 

[shambo]

37 minutes ago, Traubert said:

6040 infected, 132 deaths. Doesn't look like 15% to me. More like 0.021%.

 

This from the real time information being provided on WeChat.

 

Yeah, yeah, CPC, fake, fudge, blah,blah......

That makes 2,1% mate!

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I wonder if Thailand will ever say this....

 

"We apologise to [our overlord] for the inconvenience, but the safety of our [citizens] is always our priority."

No, it's the usual "We apologize to [our citizens], but the convenience [of our overlord] is always our priority".

[emptypockets]

18 minutes ago, Jackin1960 said:

While here in the UK BA have suspended all flights to China! But Thailand are still welcoming Chinese tourists just how dumb is that?

As dumb as BA suspending all flights TO China.

[bangsaenguy]

4 hours ago, cerox said:

Democratically elected PM said situation is 100% under control.

So why all the fuss? 5555

 

Wonder what will happen to the people that contradict the General/PM? No free speech here anymore.

[Tayaout]

56 minutes ago, Traubert said:

6040 infected, 132 deaths. Doesn't look like 15% to me. More like 0.021%.

 

This from the real time information being provided on WeChat.

 

Yeah, yeah, CPC, fake, fudge, blah,blah......

2.19% but the stats doesn't mean much right now. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Tayaout

[Barefoot]

On 1/28/2020 at 2:44 PM, Ireland32 said:

Why are they being allowed to enter , Malaysia saying CANNOT 

Not true.  Malaysia is just as greedy as the Thais.  They are making it known they welcome Chinese tourists from any city but Wuhan.

"

Malaysia

 has also opted not to revise its tourism goals established under its “Visit Malaysia 2020” strategy, and its tourist minister said any shortfall created by events in China could be balanced by gains elsewhere.  “The target is still 30 million [tourist arrivals],” Mohammadin Ketapi said. “If there is a small impact on that it is probably from Wuhan. But we are not talking about people from Australia or from England … That target remains as it is. China is very important to us. We are not here to say that Beijing has a virus and they cannot travel here. We’re talking about Wuhan only.”

 

South China Morning Post

[Russell17au]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Do you have some credible source for that claim?

 

If so, you should post it, or stop repeating the same unsourced claim over and over again.

 

From the same source that you have quoted CDC

This has already been a killer flu season, and not “killer” in a good way. As of December 14, the U.S. and its territories have had at least 3.7 million cases of the flu, leading to approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 1,800 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

[DrTuner]

The death ratio seems to be dropping a bit, now 132/242 = 54.5% of diagnosed died. Makes sense since it'll probably take week or two to be "recovered" and the worst affected would die quickly. Eventually after a few months that figure will settle into what will be the estimated mortality percentage.

Edited January 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, Barefoot said:

Malaysia is just as greedy as the Thais.  They are making it known they welcome Chinese tourists from any city but Wuhan.

Singapore should close the northern border then.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, Russell17au said:

From the same source that you have quoted CDC

This has already been a killer flu season, and not “killer” in a good way. As of December 14, the U.S. and its territories have had at least 3.7 million cases of the flu, leading to approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 1,800 deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

 

Here you're talking about total fatalities, before you were talking about death rates among Thailand vs other countries... To compare country to country deaths, you need to do it per capita. And I've already posted that kind of data that refutes your earlier claims.

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

23 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

As dumb as BA suspending all flights TO China.

 

You missed the to and FROM part...

 

Quote

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - British Airways has suspended all direct flights to and from mainland China after Britain warned against all but essential travel to the country due to the coronavirus outbreak.

 

[emptypockets]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

You missed the to and FROM part...

 

 

Not in the post I quoted I didn't.

[khunpa]

29 minutes ago, shambo said:

That makes 2,1% mate!

True and also there are some other factors.

 

Out of the infected there is a high number in critical condition. Many of them could die, raising the death rate.

 

The infected number is properly also much higher. Many infected will have few or no symptoms and therefore not go to hospital. But they will infect others.

 

Also there is a limit to how many they can test every day. 

 

If this mutates (again), it could get more aggressive, killing also young and healthy people. That is what we should be really worried about.

 

[Barefoot]

40 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

In the heavily impacted area, I would imagine their testing capacity is far less than the demand/need at present, hence a likely backlog.

 

From reports I have read, there is a lengthy bureaucratic process involved to be tested.  First, there has to be an available bed for you, otherwise you are turned away.  And then there is bureaucratic approval and a lengthy process to obtain results.

 

On earlier comments about the death rate, it needs to be remembered that it seems to take about 3 weeks from onset of the infection until death.  So people dying today got infected around January 8, when there were only a few hundred cases worldwide.  Three weeks from now we will learn if all these recently infected people will live or die.

 

For those in which the infection has run its course, the numbers are sobering.

 

Real-Time Tracking at Johns Hopkins

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Not in the post I quoted I didn't.

 

That was a unsourced comment post by a member. It didn't accurately reflect the actual news report on BA, which I posted one or two later in the same thread.

 

[zydeco]

1 minute ago, Barefoot said:

Three weeks from now we will learn if all these recently infected people will live or die.

I wonder who will be missing from TVF three weeks from now.

[robsamui]

On 1/28/2020 at 2:52 PM, GeorgeCross said:

so thailand is now on the same exponential path as china: 1, 2, 5, 8, 14, ??

 

same virus so same result?

 

 

That's an interesting progression - it looks like an arithmetic increase with the '11' missed out. Can you explain it for me, please?

Edited January 29, 2020 by robsamui

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, Barefoot said:

From reports I have read, there is a lengthy bureaucratic process involved to be tested.  First, there has to be an available bed for you, otherwise you are turned away.  And then there is bureaucratic approval and a lengthy process to obtain results.

Thanks, I didn't even think about that. I simply assumed it would be all be automatic after admission. Forgot about how commies work.

[overherebc]

17 minutes ago, zydeco said:

I wonder who will be missing from TVF three weeks from now.

Well, if my wife doesn't snap out of the bad mood she's in now probably me.

Edit

On topic.  If it's true that you become infectious a day after you are yourself infected what good will screening do. You will not be showing any symptoms.

Edited January 29, 2020 by overherebc

[eastendanto]

If I'm reading this correct, if 1 person arriving with a plane load of people originating from China is found to be infected, they quarantine the infected person  and let everyone loose in Thailand.. brilliant

[Barefoot]

On January 20, there were 278 reported cases in all of mainland China, almost all of which was in Hubei province, which includes the city of Wuhan.  Today, Hubei has 3,554 confirmed cases, and there are four other provinces with at least 200 confirmed cases, and another five provinces with more than 100 confirmed cases.  These will likely follow the course set by Hubei, just running several weeks behind.  So Thailand needs to pull the plug on all Chinese flights.  Period.

 

Real-Time Tracking of Coronavirus

[emptypockets]

22 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

That was a unsourced comment post by a member. It didn't accurately reflect the actual news report on BA, which I posted one or two later in the same thread.

 

Irrelevant. I replied to a post, whether the post was accurate is neither here nor there.

[Isaan sailor]

7 minutes ago, Barefoot said:

On January 20, there were 278 reported cases in all of mainland China, almost all of which was in Hubei province, which includes the city of Wuhan.  Today, Hubei has 3,554 confirmed cases, and there are four other provinces with at least 200 confirmed cases, and another five provinces with more than 100 confirmed cases.  These will likely follow the course set by Hubei, just running several weeks behind.  So Thailand needs to pull the plug on all Chinese flights.  Period.

 

Real-Time Tracking of Coronavirus

Clearly, it’s snowballing....

[DrTuner]

36 minutes ago, Barefoot said:

Real-Time Tracking of Coronavirus

Just a quick note: it's not real-time. It's updated 2-3 times daily, from the sources in the lower right hand corner links. The largest increases in figures have usually been added in the mornings (Thai time). You can see last update time in the top box on the site, which is maintained by John Hopkins University in US.

[Barefoot]

8 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Just a quick note: it's not real-time. It's updated 2-3 times daily, from the sources in the lower right hand corner links. The largest increases in figures have usually been added in the mornings (Thai time). You can see last update time in the top box on the site, which is maintained by John Hopkins University in US.

That's correct.  The Chinese data is near real time, though, according to the blog accompanying the site.

"GIS Dashboard
In response to this ongoing public health emergency, we developed an online dashboard (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet. The case data visualized is collected from various sources, including WHO, U.S. CDC, ECDC China CDC (CCDC), NHC and DXY. DXY is a Chinese website that aggregates NHC and local CCDC situation reports in near real-time, providing more current regional case estimates than the national level reporting organizations are capable of, and is thus used for all the mainland China cases reported in our dashboard (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths). U.S. cases (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths) are taken from the U.S. CDC, and all other country (suspected and confirmed) case data is taken from the corresponding regional health departments. The dashboard is intended to provide the public with an understanding of the outbreak situation as it unfolds, with transparent data sources."

[PEE TEE]

Is about time they listen and learn ,no good to screen if the virus goes undetected for up to 2 weeks just stop all flights from china this should have been done from day 1 but Thais  always puts money first maybe now it's too late . Then who pays the consequences ?

As for China you cannot believe anything they claim . seems strange that the labs for biological warfare is based in where anybody guess ?? . how do we know someone has not made a massive mistake ?  

 

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Barefoot said:

That's correct.  The Chinese data is near real time, though, according to the blog accompanying the site.

"GIS Dashboard
In response to this ongoing public health emergency, we developed an online dashboard (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet. The case data visualized is collected from various sources, including WHO, U.S. CDC, ECDC China CDC (CCDC), NHC and DXY. DXY is a Chinese website that aggregates NHC and local CCDC situation reports in near real-time, providing more current regional case estimates than the national level reporting organizations are capable of, and is thus used for all the mainland China cases reported in our dashboard (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths). U.S. cases (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths) are taken from the U.S. CDC, and all other country (suspected and confirmed) case data is taken from the corresponding regional health departments. The dashboard is intended to provide the public with an understanding of the outbreak situation as it unfolds, with transparent data sources."

This is the dxy source: https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2 . It too only gets updated a few times a day. Looks like there's somebody inputting the data in batches in China. If it goes through "official verification" before released, well.. up to you to decide. China's track record tells it's own tale.

[Cake Monster]

Am I really missing something with this Statement " Thailand to screen all arrivals from China "

I was led to believe from the stuff I have read, that the Virus can spread whilst in its Incubation stage which lasts between 1 and 14 Days, and during this phase its undetectable.

Potentially this could mean some Tourist planting their feet in Thailand after only a couple of Hours of being infected in China, then being trollied all over the Country to spend their Money in purpose built ' Authentic Thai  Experience " shopping arcades Etc Etc Etc Etc for 2 weeks, then on the Morning of departure they could get sick from the Virus after infecting possibly Hundreds of people in Thailand.

Surely, is the screening not just a complete waste of time, but utterly incompetent

 

[DrTuner]

7 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

I'm flying through Swampy tomorrow back to Jomtien and will wear a mask and observe good hand hygiene.

Remember eyeglasses. Sunglasses look way cooler than 3M protective glasses (which I ordered in bulk, were cheap 1 week ago, not sure now), should be enough to prevent direct spittle from the infected.