Thailand and Bangkok ‘most at risk’ from coronavirus, scientists warn

[RH27]

If they accept that all flights from China must stop and all in deported then the tourist industry has a chance.  We can weather that loss. 

 

if this goes insane due to lack of tough action then no one will visit from anywhere - end of story.

[ukrules]

50 minutes ago, RH27 said:

If they accept that all flights from China must stop and all in deported then the tourist industry has a chance.  We can weather that loss. 

 

if this goes insane due to lack of tough action then no one will visit from anywhere - end of story.

I reckon they will wait until things get real bad, then act when it's far too late.

[Sunderland]

On 1/29/2020 at 1:30 PM, Moonfire said:

1. Ban all travel from China for 18 days and then only receive flights to one airport with extra screening in place before the travels mix with others at the airport.

 

2. Close all schools for two weeks.

 

3. Close all massage places for two weeks.

 

4. If companies can allow workers to remote work from home enact that as well.

 

Pay a little upfront for the inconvenience or pay much more later.   

I agree with all these measures but the period of 2 weeks is way too short.

 

As tough as it sounds, if there is any possibility of Wuhan being repeated here (meaning guaranteed large number of deaths in coming weeks/months) then close the airports in Thailand now. Close the schools. Close the factories. Shut down public transport. Curfew for 4-8 weeks.

 

Extreme. Absolutely. But this is the ONLY way to cut off the virus in a speedy fashion.

 

The only problem is that you need to do this globally for it to be effective in the long tem and we know that won't happen because of a combination of logistics, disbelief and ignorance.

 

If the death rate outside China remains low going forward, then the above suggestions are insane!

 

However, if the spread rate and death rate were to be on the scale of Hubei province, an unprecedented massive short term global downturn through mass quarantine and curfew would be preferable and more economic than a chaotic period of unknown length which would still lead to shutdowns in the future. 

 

The longer they (governments) wait to take drastic action, the more they expose themselves to longer term economic and social risks.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Sunderland

[metisdead]

Posts containing unattributed content have been removed. Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting:

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

 

Posts using trolling memes have been removed. 

[WaveHunter]

15 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Where did you get the 3% from? Lancet's two papers were at 15% for the first 41 confirmed that ended in death or recovery, and >11% for another 99 confirmed (not all cases had resolved yet, it was just a five day period).

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

 

EDIT: And here's a more generic study about mortatility rates with pneumonia caused by a virus: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6901688/ . 14.4%.

I agree that the 3% figure is probably not correct and in all  probability will end up being MUCH HIGHER. 

 

I actually stated that it is "3% or higher".  The Lancet white papers you referred to ARE probably a good indicator of what the actual mortality rate will end up being BUT accurate mortality rates can only be determined from a historical perspective AFTER the outbreak has peaked, so really any figure is only a guesstimate at this stage of the game.  

 

The reason that "3% is being referenced in most reporting is simply coming from dividing the CURRENT number of deaths by the CURRENT total number of reported cases.

 

The big problem with doing this though is that it ignores the deaths that will occur (but have not yet occured) after the incubation period, thus yielding an invalid and lower mortality rate than will actually be realized.

 

The only way to arrive at a valid mortality rate is to compare actual TOTAL number of deaths to actual TOTAL reported cases in the same time frame (which the Lancet cohort studies have done for a small subset of patients).

 

Worse though is the fact that many cases of N-CoV that result in death in Chinese hospitals are not even being reported as death due to N-CoV on the death certificate. 

 

It has to do with a basic flaw in how deaths are reported in China compared with most other countries in the world.

 

If, for instance, a person is admitted with a pre-existing condition that is not yet diagnosed definitively as N-CoV, but then later dies as a result of N-CoV while in the hospital, the death certificate will list the pre-existing condition as cause of death, not N-CoV.

 

As crazy as this sounds I know this to be true because I have friends in Shenzhen China who work in hospitals (doctors and nurses) and they have explained it to me in the case of how Influenza deaths are reported.

 

They tell me that if a person is admitted into a Chinese hospital with a pre-existing condition; let's say they have a heart condition or pneumonia, or something like that, and they contract the Flu while in the hospital and then die, the death certificate will not report Flu as cause of death.  Instead they will write whatever the pre-existing condition was on the death certificate!

 

This is why statistics on Flu infection deaths in China are remarkably low.  I think the total number of deaths attributed to Flu last year in China was something like 57 or some ridiculously low figure. 

 

I think it's safe to say the same thing is happening with many deaths actually attributable to N-CoV but reported as something else on death certificates.

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

 

This is a snapshot from Chinese WeChat.  It was posted at the direction of the Chinese Central Government (Chinese Communist Party - CCP) and indicative of their aggressive actions in the last few days to silence scientists, doctors, and journalists who are on the front-lines of this crisis and trying to get the truth out to the public thru social media.

 

Notice the last paragraph...yikes!  The Chinese have what is referred to as the "Rumor Law" that provides a prison sentence for up to 7 years if convicted...and many people are now being arrested on this charge as a result of social media posts that are voicing concerns over how this crisis is being handled by the Central government!

 

It is why almost no non state-sponsored information has been coming out of China in the last few days!  NOT GOOD!!!!

 

Google translation:

 

Emergency announcement:

 

Special times and special measures!

From now on, public security and cyber police will jointly enforce law on all WeChat groups.

 

All of our groups will start to implement the group | regulations, except for the administrator's unified arrangement to issue official announcements

 

And information, anyone is not allowed to post any information and pictures related to the epidemic, spread rumors, repost Misinformation.

 

Hope the volunteers understand and support. We must start with our own group, and resolutely stop the epidemic.

 

The stability of the people's heart is the biggest measure for the party and the government to put people's lives and health first.

 

Hold! Except Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, National Health Commission |"Rumors from any channel.

 

Offenders are transferred to the public security department!

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[HHTel]

Many medical sources agree that the crude mortality rate of 2 - 3% will actually fall as the gap between deaths and infections widens.  It is believed that hundreds and maybe thousands of people have been infected with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.  These figures are not included in the stats.

 

Quote

The mortality remains relatively low. This data is inevitably crude. It does not allow for ill patients who are dying but equally we have no real handle on the true number of infections in the population. Mortality is by definition hard data so as the incidence of currently undetected and milder cases increases the true mortality rate is likely to fall.

Quote

The WHO last estimate of the crude fatality rate (CFR, 29 January), an early estimate of Mortality was 2%. The CFR in China excluding Wuhan is 1%.

This disease continues to appear to be significantly less severe than SARS at a similar point in the epidemic.

Source is one of Hong Kong's leading healthcare agencies:

 

https://www.otandp.com/blog/wuhan-virus-the-distinction-between-a-disease-and-an-epidemic

 

This concurs with many other medical experts.

[WaveHunter]

43 minutes ago, HHTel said:

Many medical sources agree that the crude mortality rate of 2 - 3% will actually fall as the gap between deaths and infections widens.  It is believed that hundreds and maybe thousands of people have been infected with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.  These figures are not included in the stats.

 

Source is one of Hong Kong's leading healthcare agencies:

 

https://www.otandp.com/blog/wuhan-virus-the-distinction-between-a-disease-and-an-epidemic

 

This concurs with many other medical experts.

With all due respect this is utter nonsense!  If anything, the mortality rate will probably end up being FAR higher than 2-3%.  Actual statistics coming out of China are wholly at the discretion of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and are proving to be heavily filtered to minimize the true extent of the crisis. 

 

Even if you go by the statistics being presented by state-sanctioned reports, the situation is already far worse than it was from SARS.  The Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) is estimated to be about 20% and the rate of infection is still in Log phase meaning that daily increases are remaining exponential.  The present daily increase in cases confirmed is about 40%.

 

Maybe the containment actions being taken by the Chinese will dial this back but with over 5 million people from Wuhan that were able to leave right before containment, that means a containment rate of 50-60 percent at best, which is very low, and much lower than 90% which is what a lot of containment projections are being based on.

 

Based on a Serious Complication Rate of 20% and daily increase in confirmed infections of 40%, if the exponential progression does not break, by Day 30, there would be 115 million cases requiring hospital bed space for over 23 million people.

 

Just to put that into perspective, in the United States there are roughly under 100,000 ICU hospital beds (most of which are usually already occupied).  Perhaps that's the real reason China is feverishly building new hospitals expressly for N-CoV ???

 

Furthermore, it is accepted fact that the ACTUAL cause of death in many cases of infectious diseases are not reported as such on death certificates in Chinese hospitals.  It is a basic and widely known flaw of their health system which is heavily influenced by CCP Party guidelines. 

 

Take the case of deaths from Influenza in China last year.  I think it is reported to be something like 57 deaths last year!  Obviously this is ridiculously low and obvious NOT true.  Routinely, if a patient is admitted to hospital in China with a pre-existing condition, and while in hospital later develops Influenza that results in death, the cause of death on the death certificate will list the pre-existing condition as cause for death, not Influenza.

 

I suspect the same thing is happening with reported deaths from N-CoV.

 

This is a serious health crisis by any standard.  It is only going to get worse before it gets better if Chinese officials continue to attempt to "save face" through deception and mismanagement of this crisis. I'm not trying to be an alarmist but to merely accept that all is just fine is total BS!

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[HHTel]

I'm only the messenger.  There are many sources outside of China that gives pretty much the same opinion.

Quote

The fatality rate for a virus — the proportion of infected people who die — is difficult to calculate in the middle of an outbreak because records on new cases and deaths are constantly being updated. With 213 deaths so far out of nearly 10,000 infections, the new coronavirus has a death rate of 2–3%. This is significantly lower than SARS, which killed around 10% of the people it infected. The known death rate for the new coronavirus is likely to decrease as mild and asymptomatic cases are identified, virologist Mark Harris at the University of Leeds, UK, told the Science Media Centre in London.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

 

Quote

The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 2%, according to the WHO ^[16] on January 29, 2020. A prior estimate ^[9] had put that number at 3%, between 2% and 4%). Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

Once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%. Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Quote

These numbers taken alone suggest a case fatality rate of around 2%, very high for a respiratory virus. But the true number of infected individuals circulating in the population is not known and is likely to be much higher than 4,500. There may be 50,000 or 100,000 additional cases in Wuhan that have gone undetected, and, if this is the case, it would put the case fatality of 2019-nCoV infections in the range of 0.1% to 0.2%.

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars.html

 

There are many many more.

[WaveHunter]

44 minutes ago, HHTel said:

I'm only the messenger.  There are many sources outside of China that gives pretty much the same opinion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-outbreak-as-bad-as-sars.html

 

There are many many more.

I am not criticizing you personally but you have to realize that ALL of these sources you mention have no option but to base their numbers, projections, etc... on what state-sanctioned Chinese sources provide.

 

Unfortunately the Chinese Central Government (CCP) not only is filtering statistics heavily to prevent panic (and also to "save face" for how horribly they handled this early on), but also suppressing information from those on the front-lines of this crisis such as independent scientists, doctors, and journalists, and in the last few days doing so quite aggressively. 

 

Many of those people are being arrested under the "Rumors Law" simply for trying to get the truth out on social media; a crime which carries up to a 7 year prison term in China.

 

International politics also play a role in this.  The World Health Organization (WHO) is a big offender!  China happens to be a member of the WHO, and many of the official statements from WHO about the severity of this crisis have been tempered so as not to offend them! 

 

It is really shocking how long it took the WHO to declare this outbreak a global emergency, and even when they did so they added the caveat that there should be no need for it to affect trade or travel!  It was equally disturbing to hear the WHO praising the Chinese for how well they have handled this crisis.  Nothing could be further from the truth! 

 

The question in any sane, rational and concerned person's mind has got to be...just what is the Chinese government trying to hide, and why aren't international organizations and governments urgently addressing their motives and refusals to be more transparent?

 

I say all of this not so much to be an alarmist but because this is now everyone's problem in the global community, thanks to how poorly the Chinese handled this in the beginning, and how they continue to put a "happy face" on all of this now.

 

We in the international community are lucky that our own government have taken prompt and decisive action at containment, but the Chinese still have not, and the over-5 million people who were allowed to leave the Wuhan area AFTER confirmed cases were reported is very troubling because many of them travelled internationally, and so they are now a "Wild Card" in the potential global spread of this virus.

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

By looking at air travel passenger numbers, estimates can be made how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas. The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. 

 

For more details:  http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/#relative-import-risk

 

[HHTel]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

I am not criticizing you personally but you have to realize that ALL of these sources you mention have no option but to base their numbers, projections, etc... on what state-sanctioned Chinese sources provide.

The same argument goes for reports of higher fatality rates. So 3% can be argued against as can the higher estimates.  Reports/opinions on both sides of the coin are based to a degree on the figures that come out of China.  Having said that, many of the reports show disbelief in the Chinese figures and base their conclusions on much higher figures than the ones given.

 

I think the only conclusion is that nobody knows for sure and much of what we read is speculation.

[WaveHunter]

There is SO MUCH misinformation about this virus and so many people who seem completely clueless, it's just unbelievable.  Some of it is actually comical.  The latest Google trends statistics reflect that searches for "corona beer virus" have seen a considerable spike in the recent days.  I think it's safe to say people need to become a little bit better informed LOL!

 

 

Also, another amusing thing I saw online that has got the Chinese government in an outrage is a Danish publication's new version of the Chinese national flag:

 

...And then there is the outraged response to the Danes from Chinese people on WeChat for such an unforgivable insult to their national flag:

       

 

Nice to know the world is full of intelligent,rational and concerned "adults" who are taking this crisis seriously.

[Tulak]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

 

This is a snapshot from Chinese WeChat.  It was posted at the direction of the Chinese Central Government (Chinese Communist Party - CCP) and indicative of their aggressive actions in the last few days to silence scientists, doctors, and journalists who are on the front-lines of this crisis and trying to get the truth out to the public thru social media.

 

Notice the last paragraph...yikes!  The Chinese have what is referred to as the "Rumor Law" that provides a prison sentence for up to 7 years if convicted...and many people are now being arrested on this charge as a result of social media posts that are voicing concerns over how this crisis is being handled by the Central government!

 

It is why almost no non state-sponsored information has been coming out of China in the last few days!  NOT GOOD!!!!

 

Google translation:

 

Emergency announcement:

 

Special times and special measures!

From now on, public security and cyber police will jointly enforce law on all WeChat groups.

 

All of our groups will start to implement the group | regulations, except for the administrator's unified arrangement to issue official announcements

 

And information, anyone is not allowed to post any information and pictures related to the epidemic, spread rumors, repost Misinformation.

 

Hope the volunteers understand and support. We must start with our own group, and resolutely stop the epidemic.

 

The stability of the people's heart is the biggest measure for the party and the government to put people's lives and health first.

 

Hold! Except Xinhua News Agency, People's Daily, National Health Commission |"Rumors from any channel.

 

Offenders are transferred to the public security department!

 

Does world need to trade with this kind of system?

Sure I am not naive to understand "money talk".

It would be tough from the beginning, but not in a long run.

Consequences to let China to continue on present path are dire.

In case you like reading books try this one for better understanding: War with the Newts (Karel Capek)

 

[WaveHunter]

37 minutes ago, HHTel said:

The same argument goes for reports of higher fatality rates. So 3% can be argued against as can the higher estimates.  Reports/opinions on both sides of the coin are based to a degree on the figures that come out of China.  Having said that, many of the reports show disbelief in the Chinese figures and base their conclusions on much higher figures than the ones given.

 

I think the only conclusion is that nobody knows for sure and much of what we read is speculation.

Yes, and the mortality rate should not even be discussed now since it really can only be accurate once the outbreak has peaked and can be viewed from a historical perspective.  Until then, the numbers being thrown around mean next to nothing, especially when they are used in comparison with other historical outbreaks such as SARS.

 

However, the Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) of 20% should be considered VERY seriously.  That number is valid, and so is the 40% daily increase in confirmed cases.  Taken together that should be taken very seriously for the reasons I outlined in my previous post....not a good scenario at all!

 

Nobody should view this with fear and panic, but neither should we simply stick our heads in the sand and ignore the potential of this outbreak, or just put on a "happy face" claiming all is under control which is what the Chinese authorities are presently doing.  Until at least another week goes by, nobody really can say how serious this outbreak can really get, not only in China, but all around the world. 

 

Remember that there are over 5 million people from the Wuhan region who were able to escape the quarantine before lockdown occured, many of whom could be infected, and many of whom travelled out of China BEFORE any sort of effective airport screening or inbound quarantining was in place.  Many of those people, if infected may very well still be asymptomatic yet capable of transmitting the virus during the incubation period. To me, THAT is a big "wild card" that will play out over the next week or so. 

 

I am NOT an alarmist but my view is take this seriously and have the attitude of "Preparing for the worst and hoping for the best"

Edited February 1, 2020 by WaveHunter

[wasabi]

Well at least Thai immigration successfully blocked all those pesky Farangs yearning to work in Thailand without permits.  Obviously a much bigger threat than a silly ole virus.

Edited February 1, 2020 by wasabi

[WaveHunter]

I want to be clear, I'm not being Mr. Doom and Gloom.  I believe we will prevail in controlling the outbreak through containment, but it will be the result of people taking this outbreak seriously and not merely putting on a "happy face" claiming that all is OK and everything is under control, because at present, it is not!

 

At this stage of the outbreak, death rate is not even an important or verifiable statistic, and won't really be known until it all can be viewed from a historical perspective. 

 

Far more worrisome is how quickly the medical infrastructure will become overwhelmed by this if containment efforts are not effective (and so far they are proving far from effective!)

 

At the current 40% increase per day in reported cases (which so far is holding), and a Serious Complication Rate (ICU bed required) which has been holding at 20%, there will not be enough ICU beds to accommodate the seriously sick...in less than one month!  THAT IS THE REAL DANGER!

 

If projections for new cases remain exponential and given that the Serious Complication Rate is holding at 20%, here are what the results would be:

Consider that by day 18, there would be over 400,000 patients requiring ICU care.  To put this in perspective, consider the fact that the entire USA only has about 100,000 ICU beds! 

 

Whether this stays only in China or a serious pandemic occurs, it would simply overwhelm the medical infrastructure's ability to accommodate the seriously sick people in far less than a single month!

 

To me, that is a SERIOUS scenario of epic proportions! 

 

I am not saying it WILL happen, but the potential is very real, especially since this is a very contagious virus with a R-Naught of at least 2.0, and possibly as high as 4.1 (according to the latest, though yet peer reviewed virus modeling studies).

 

What this new R-naught number means is there is far more likelihood that this could become a global) pandemic than is presently believed, despite current success at containment in places like the USA.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by WaveHunter