Thailand and Bangkok ‘most at risk’ from coronavirus, scientists warn

[DrTuner]

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Just fyi, the PUI totals they report seem to be cumulative back to the beginning, and they don't seem to get subtracted once someone has been cleared or recovered. So it's a misleading statistic in terms of the current situation.

Yes, I noticed that. Makes it even stranger..

 

Quote

Report on 27th had PUI (Persons under investigation) 136, 79 pending.  28th PUI 158, 102 pending.

That's +22 PUI, but +23 pending. Did they start retesting some or what?

 

Now what day were the samples of the 14 confirmed taken on? A few days back?

Edited January 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

And you wanna hear what kind of screenings the 200+ evacuated American govt. employees from Wuhan are going thru, before they're let "free" back in the U.S.???

 

https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7?

 

 

Quote

 

A plane evacuating more than 200 Americans from a Chinese city at the center of a virus outbreak continued Wednesday on to Southern California after everyone aboard passed a health screening test in Anchorage, where the aircraft had stopped to refuel.
 

All 201 passengers had already been through two screenings in China and were screened twice more in Anchorage by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

...

The Americans will undergo additional health screenings in California and will be temporarily housed there for a period of time as they finish the repatriation process

 

 

By my tally, that's 5+ health screenings at least:

--two in China

--two in Alaska, and

--more in California upon arrival, apparently including some effective quarantine upon arrival.

 

Along the way in the past two days, their intended arrival airport was changed from:

--San Francisco, a busy international and public airport, to

--Ontario, a comparatively little used, out-of-the-way public airport, to

--March Air Force Base, a non-public military facility.

 

What does that tell you about the government's current thinking about the coronavirus?

 

OK Thailand, what are YOU doing???

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[WalkingOrders]

I was at Cheng Wattana Bangkok Immigration the other day, and My wife and I were both in masks, and so was about 90 percent of everyone there - and the immigration staff.  it looked like a scene out of a zombie apocalypse movie. A lot of talk that these masks are useless but the reality is they are better MUCH BETTER than nothing as this is assumed spread through airborne droplets, which means even a rag is better then nothing. 

 

Remember - a head shot is always best!!! They're coming!

[WalkingOrders]

9 hours ago, silverhawk_usa said:

A recent report on U.S. television stated that masks are not effective in preventing a virus. It said it could possibly be of some aid as a person is less likely to touch their nose or mouth with their virus carrying hands while wearing a mask. 

Some aid is better then no aid. And if you think that airborne vapor droplets are the likely carrier, obviously covering your face will provide some aid. I would wear ANYTHING over my face instead of nothing, on a train, at immigration, or other suspect local with lots of people in close proximity. Like everywhere in Bangkok? And we don't know yet how fast the zombies can run, so I am wearing trainers everywhere too.

[ThailandRyan]

7 hours ago, SkyFax said:

That was rather a selective edit of the SkyNews report. The Health Minister went on to say:

 

... (P)ublic health minister Anutin Charnvirakul admitted to Sky News that he expects the number of infections to rise.

"We are not able to stop the spread," he said.

"Our target is we will be able to detect all carriers entering Thailand and we will apply necessary measures as the situation develops.

"Of course we expect more people to get sick but we are able to identify all of them."

 

https://news.sky.com/story/thailand-not-able-to-stop-the-spread-of-new-coronavirus-11919860

 

 

Looks like the BMW Smart Cars will come in handy...wow have I just found a new justification for the purchase.....Wow.  Can not wait for that spin to show up in someone's press release.

[Monomial]

6 hours ago, Jeff G said:

Measles is 12 times more contagious than the Corona virus. 12 times!!! Yes, caution is required but this thing is not even as serious as measles or driving a car or scooter here. It does sell a lot of newspapers and advertisements which is the reason it’s “breaking news” all day long. 

 

12 is a bit of an exaggeration. While R-naught of measles is extremely high, it is only estimated to be between 12-18.  If you take the latest estimate of R-naught for coronavirus, which is around 3.8 according to the Chinese, then measles is only around 3.1 - 4.7 times as virulent.

 

The basic point is still intact, namely that there are worse diseases out there, but lets not undervalue how dangerous this virus could be. Measles was eradicated due to widespread vaccination, and thus is not really a threat in the general population. There is no such immunity to coronavirus.

 

As another data point, the R naught of ebola is only around 2, so coronavirus is almost twice as virulent as ebola.  Luckily, fewer people die from contracting coronavirus vs. ebola.

 

[WalkingOrders]

6 hours ago, simtemple said:

Chinese Doctors are recommending disposable eye goggles. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7926243/Killer-coronavirus-SPREAD-eyes.html

That's it I am not going outside for two weeks

[wealthychef]

10 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

Too many reasons to justify wearing a quality mask at the moment.

1. Coronavirus.

2. Burn offs (Pollution)

3. Traffic fumes (pollution)

 

 

AND everyone should buy an air purifier, properly HEPA rated for their home's size.  That way, your time in your home is not spent breathing all that <deleted>.  

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, wealthychef said:

AND everyone should buy an air purifier, properly HEPA rated for their home's size.  That way, your time in your home is not spent breathing all that <deleted>.  

Ot move to a country where the air is breathable.

[wealthychef]

Just now, DrTuner said:

Ot move to a country where the air is breathable.

Not everyone is in the jet set, move wherever you want class.  

[DrTuner]

14 minutes ago, WalkingOrders said:

That's it I am not going outside for two weeks

Don't let anybody in either. If you order pizza, prepay and tell them to leave it outside and look through the periscope the check the delivery guy has left. Also remember not to breathe in or touch your mucus membranes while eating it. 

 

The reality of it is, it'll be hard to avoid infection at one point or another. Better to delay it as long as possible though as hospitals might be crowded in the nearby future - and those are places where if you didn't have it yet, you're very likely to catch it.

[mikecha]

9 hours ago, thisisrascal said:

My 30 day's are up in ten days time but I'm giving serious consideration to getting out of dodge ASAP. 

 

The only thing holding me back is I don't fancy going to the airport. 

well at airport today mst have masks just silly farangs that think they supermen better make mask than get  maybe wearinf a mask screws your ego   ot does not to me beter try some than get sick

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

52 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Clearly tells it takes a long time to get lab results. I still haven't found which hospitals or other institutes have labs capable of RT-PCR and having the correct biolab rating. Doesn't look like there's many.

 

This is the prior info I was recalling on that subject:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/declaration/declaration_170163.pdf

 

Quote

 

For the process of confirming a case, the diagnosis of this emerging infectious disease needs to be given carefully and concisely following the standard protocol. Signs and symptoms of a potential case are as follows: fever with symptoms of respiratory track infection, including history of traveling to an affected area, Wuhan.

 

Laboratory testing via genetic sequencing from at least two reference laboratories, including the Department of Medical Sciences and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, are required to subsequently confirm 2019-nCoV. A duration of approximately 24 hours for the laboratory testing procedure is necessary for validity, clarity, and verification of the laboratory results before an announcement of the confirmed case of 2019-nCoV.

 

 

[pellets]

5 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Just for context purposes, it is worth remembering in these virus discussions...

 

--In Thailand, about 24,000 people per year die in road crashes.

 

--In Thailand, an estimated 38,000 people die per year from causes related to high air pollution levels here.

 

A prudent person can do things in Thailand to avoid becoming a road fatality and to avoid the impacts of high air pollution levels.

 

Likewise, a prudent person can do things in Thailand to avoid contracting the coronavirus, which right now has a far lower risk level to the average person than either of the other two causes of fatalities.

 

Remains to be seen whether the government authorities here will be as IN-EFFECTIVE in dealing with the coronavirus as they long have been at preventing road fatalities and air pollution.

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by pellets
Deleted!

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, rabas said:

I think it is other way.  Confirmed and suspected cases are meant to be summed, i.e., each is a unique case.

The figures were from Thai reports, https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

 

The real question is, why in one day 22 persons have been added, but pending diagnosis went up by 23? Either somebody entered something wrong at ze computer, or they are retesting. 

 

In any case no new numbers today? And the 14 yesterday had the 24h lag in it, so real situation was likely already worse.

 

PS. in the dxy graph for some reason it looks like suspected is ~15k. Doesn't match with the numeric they have on their page. Figures are starting to be all over the place.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Clearly tells it takes a long time to get lab results. I still haven't found which hospitals or other institutes have labs capable of RT-PCR and having the correct biolab rating. Doesn't look like there's many.

 

I'm GUESSING what the info I quoted above means is.... a regular hospital can do their own test if they have the capability, but the Thai govt. isn't going to officially include someone in their confirmed virus diagnosis official numbers until/unless any test result has been confirmed by one of the above mentioned government reference labs.

 

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I'm GUESSING what the info I quoted above means is.... a regular hospital can do their own test if they have the capability, but the Thai govt. isn't going to officially include someone in their confirmed virus diagnosis official numbers until/unless any test result has been confirmed by one of the above mentioned government reference labs.

That would probably match with reporting requirement to WHO? Labs need to have some accreditation.

[rabas]

29 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

PS. in the dxy graph for some reason it looks like suspected is ~15k. Doesn't match with the numeric they have on their page. Figures are starting to be all over the place.

That's a stacked graph, 15000 is the sum of confirmed and suspected. Dark shade is confirmed and light shade is suspected, their sum reaches 15000. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by rabas

[TacoKhun]

As this page stated https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 

there is 132 deaths 110 recovered, does it mean current survival rate is less than 50%, not even close to 97% as some people stated before (total infected / total deaths) which seems like useless metric?

Edited January 29, 2020 by TacoKhun

[rabas]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Good luck in trying to sort out the various Thai numbers they're throwing out in the DDC reports and making any sense of them in any kind of holistic way. Maybe part of that is their difficulty in producing coherent EN translations. Maybe it's just their lack of coherent writing.

LOL, I have no explanation for Thai numbers. Maybe my wife can learn something at the temple. I do worry the government will start hiding them.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, rabas said:

LOL, I have no explanation for Thai numbers. Maybe my wife can learn something at the temple. I do worry the government will start hiding them.

 

Yesterday's DDC report said they had 102 cases with lab results pending...

 

And according to the DDC's daily reports, the backlog of yet to be finalized lab result cases has been growing pretty rapidly:

 

Jan 19 -- 14

Jan 20 -- 8

Jan 21 -- 12

Jan 22 -- 15

Jan 23 -- 20

Jan 24 -- 22

Jan 25 -- 42

Jan 26 -- 54

Jan 27 -- 79

Jan 28 -- 102

 

They seem to be falling further behind... unless the pace of incoming potential cases slows, or they increase their lab testing capability.

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[garyk]

5 hours ago, nchuckle said:

You sound like the man who fell off a skyscraper who as he passed each floor was heard to say 'so far,so good...'

Haha, it is not the fall that kills you it is the sudden stop..

[JHolmesJr]

need to visit a hospital for a few non essential annual tests....wondering if

it's worth the aggro or risk...

[HHTel]

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Yesterday's DDC report said they had 102 cases with lab results pending...

Actually the latest death toll to come out of China is 132 with 6,152 cases confirmed.

 

Of course any info coming out of China is suspect.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

need to visit a hospital for a few non essential annual tests....wondering if

it's worth the aggro or risk...

 

The one-visit risk is probably pretty low, especially if you wear a mask and exercise proper hygiene.... But at the same time, if it's non-essential, why would anyone who's otherwise healthy want to go to a Thai hospital right now?

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, HHTel said:

Actually the latest death toll to come out of China is 132 with 6,152 cases confirmed.

 

Of course any info coming out of China is suspect.

 

Thailand's number of lab cases waiting for test results is an entirely unrelated number to the death toll in China.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

21 minutes ago, rabas said:

That's a stacked graph, 15000 is the sum of confirmed and suspected. Dark shade is confirmed and light shade is suspected, their sum reaches 15000. 

 

BTW, what's the source for those Chinese language charts you posted above?

 

[DrTuner]

22 minutes ago, rabas said:

That's a stacked graph, 15000 is the sum of confirmed and suspected. Dark shade is confirmed and light shade is suspected, their sum reaches 15000. 

Thanks, I stand corrected. My non-existing mandarin and google translate not translating the legends in images have failed me. 

[ThaiBrian]

Looks like the eyes of the world will be on us tomorrow... suspected Coronavirus related death here in Chaing Mai... first death outside of China? 

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2020/01/29/public-health-warning-thailand-corona-virus-outbreak-chinese-woman-disease-control-department/

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Yesterday's DDC report said they had 102 cases with lab results pending...

 

And according to the DDC's daily reports, the backlog of yet to be finalized lab result cases has been growing pretty rapidly:

 

Jan 19 -- 14

Jan 20 -- 8

Jan 21 -- 12

Jan 22 -- 15

Jan 23 -- 20

Jan 24 -- 22

Jan 25 -- 42

Jan 26 -- 54

Jan 27 -- 79

Jan 28 -- 102

 

They seem to be falling further behind... unless the pace of incoming potential cases slows, or they increase their lab testing capability.

 

 

And that backlog is one POSSIBLE reason why the confirmed virus numbers for Thailand aren't any higher than the 14 at present... because there are LOTS and growing numbers of potential cases in the pipeline awaiting lab result determinations.