Thailand and Bangkok ‘most at risk’ from coronavirus, scientists warn

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Yesterday's DDC report said they had 102 cases with lab results pending...

 

And according to the DDC's daily reports, the backlog of yet to be finalized lab result cases has been growing pretty rapidly:

 

Jan 19 -- 14

Jan 20 -- 8

Jan 21 -- 12

Jan 22 -- 15

Jan 23 -- 20

Jan 24 -- 22

Jan 25 -- 42

Jan 26 -- 54

Jan 27 -- 79

Jan 28 -- 102

 

They seem to be falling further behind... unless the pace of incoming potential cases slows, or they increase their lab testing capability.

If we assume the lab test are done FIFO (First in, First out), the 14 confirmed could be from as far as ... ugh it's getting late but I think you'll need the PUI and diagnoses that were not infected to take a guess when were the samples for the 14 infected that were reported yesterday taken. I'd wildly guess around 25th, four days ago. The silence today ain't good, communicate, damnit, how many?

Edited January 29, 2020 by DrTuner

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 minutes ago, ThaiBrian said:

Looks like the eyes of the world will be on us tomorrow... suspected Coronavirus related death here in Chaing Mai... first death outside of China? 

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2020/01/29/public-health-warning-thailand-corona-virus-outbreak-chinese-woman-disease-control-department/

 

Just from the limited amount of info that's been reported, I'm pretty doubtful that the CM incident will turn out to be coronavirus... First, because the woman was young, in her early 30s, which would be rare for a CV fatality. And second, AFAIK, the path to fatality in these kinds of cases tends to be somewhat drawn out, not so much you suddenly feel sick and then die the next day.... Especially for an otherwise young and healthy person.  But that's just speculation all round at this point.

 

Bed bug spraying, anyone???

 

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[rabas]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

BTW, what's the source for those Chinese language charts you posted above?

 

http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

Chrome will translate the page text and totals to English. Graphs will still have Chinese titles.

1. Daily confirmed and suspected.

2. Total confirmed and suspected.

3. Total dead and cured.

[Tayaout]

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Ot move to a country where the air is breathable.

From Ranong to the south the air is fine. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

http://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

Chrome will translate the page text and totals to English. Graphs will still have Chinese titles.

1. Daily confirmed and suspected.

2. Total confirmed and suspected.

3. Total dead and cured.

 

Thanks, I guess I meant more particularly, what agency is issuing those charts and stats?

 

[Salerno]

4 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

what agency is issuing those charts and stats?

1. Data source:
Public data from the National Health Commission, the provincial and municipal health commissions, provincial and municipal governments, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan official channels

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

5 minutes ago, Salerno said:

1. Data source:
Public data from the National Health Commission, the provincial and municipal health commissions, provincial and municipal governments, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan official channels

 

So it's a private company/community aggregating various statistics they're gathering from various Chinese government and other sources, and then producing their own summaries?

 

You'd kind of wonder why the Chinese National Health Commission isn't producing its own nationwide stats for the China-only portion of all this....  Maybe they are, but we just don't end up seeing them in English...

 

 

 

[rabas]

40 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

And that backlog is one POSSIBLE reason why the confirmed virus numbers for Thailand aren't any higher than the 14 at present... because there are LOTS and growing numbers of potential cases in the pipeline awaiting lab result determinations.

 

That makes sense. I also see that in Thailand a large percentage of suspected cases are turning out to be other things (so far). Concerned Thais going to the hospital. OTH China reports that ~45% of the suspected cases are later confirmed nCoV2019.

Edited January 29, 2020 by rabas

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

That makes sense. I also see that in Thailand a large percentage of suspected cases are turning out to be other things (so far). Concerned Thais going to the hospital. OTH China reports that ~45% of the suspected cases are later confirmed nCoV2019.

 

I could speculate on why there's that kind of disparity on the share of confirmed cases in Thailand... but... I won't....   Since I'm not a purveyor of conspiracy theories....

[Maitdjai]

12 hours ago, Flugg said:

Putting the whole nation at risk so the top 1 ‰ can get richer.

LoG # 1 again!

From the 

"bottom" side.

What else.

Find the failure.

It can only be FF.

[mickey rat]

12 hours ago, ianezy0 said:

Too many reasons to justify wearing a quality mask at the moment.

1. Coronavirus.

2. Burn offs (Pollution)

3. Traffic fumes (pollution)

 

We've already been wearing masks (N95) for unhealthy levels of 2.5PM levels that have become the norm for Thailand over the last two years but, not sure they would be effective against Coronavirus. Do you happen to jnow the minimum specifications needed for protection? ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, mickey rat said:

We've already been wearing masks (N95) for unhealthy levels of 2.5PM levels that have become the norm for Thailand over the last two years but, not sure they would be effective against Coronavirus. Do you happen to jnow the minimum specifications needed for protection? ????

 

A N95 class mask worn and fitted properly is supposed to provide very good protection against inhaling virus material into your mouth or nose, up to 90-95%. However, that kind of facemask doesn't protect your eyes, which are another exposure point for airborne transmission.

 

And of course, you also need to practice good hands hygiene (washing with soap and/or an alcohol gel) in order to avoid transmitting the virus on something you may have touched into your mouth, nose, eyes, etc.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

Quote

 

J&J enters coronavirus fray with planned vaccine

Jan. 29, 2020 9:11 AM ET|About: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)|By: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor 

 

In what it calls a "multi-pronged" response to the coronavirus outbreak, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) announces that unit Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies has initiated activities to develop a vaccine against 2019-nCoV, the virus causing the current contagion.

...

The company's efforts will include a review of known pathways in coronavirus pathophysiology to determine if previously tested drugs can help patients survive infection and reduce the severity of disease in non-lethal cases.

It has also donated 300 boxes of HIV med Prezcobix (darunavir/cobicistat) to the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University for use in research to support efforts in finding a solution against 2019-nCoV. 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3535736-j-and-j-enters-coronavirus-fray-planned-vaccine?

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by metisdead
Edited as per fair use policy.

[englishoak]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3535736-j-and-j-enters-coronavirus-fray-planned-vaccine?

 

It takes at least 3 months to trial any new vaccine, its a good start but 4 to 6 mths away atm

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

You'd kind of wonder why the Chinese National Health Commission isn't producing its own nationwide stats for the China-only portion of all this....  Maybe they are, but we just don't end up seeing them in English...

They probably are but they'll have a delay of 3-4 weeks because they need to be filtered through the propaganda machine. I think the same is happening in Thailand right now.

[DrTuner]

9 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3535736-j-and-j-enters-coronavirus-fray-planned-vaccine?

Ermh ... seekingalpha and zerohedge are trader sites. Their motivation is in profiting from swing trading. Take it with a aircraft carrier load of salt.

[sawadee1947]

34 minutes ago, mickey rat said:

We've already been wearing masks (N95) for unhealthy levels of 2.5PM levels that have become the norm for Thailand over the last two years but, not sure they would be effective against Coronavirus. Do you happen to jnow the minimum specifications needed for protection? ????

Yes, avoid to contact other people ????

[sawadee1947]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That would probably match with reporting requirement to WHO? Labs need to have some accreditation.

Labs need to have some accreditation.

 

That's the point :

When I started to take my dog over to EU there was no lab in Thailand to do the rabies test. Blood sample had to send to Paris!!!! for a test ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

13 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Ermh ... seekingalpha and zerohedge are trader sites. Their motivation is in profiting from swing trading. Take it with a aircraft carrier load of salt.

 

The info I posted was just a summary of a longer J&J press release on their coronavirus vaccine and treatment efforts.  It was an accurate summary. Direct from the company:

 

Quote

 

PR Newswire

 

NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J., Jan. 29, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) today announced that it is mobilizing resources at its Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies to launch a multi-pronged response to the novel coronavirus (also known as 2019-nCoV or Wuhan coronavirus) outbreak. As part of this work, the Company has initiated efforts to develop a vaccine candidate against 2019-nCoV and broadly collaborate with others to screen a library of antiviral therapies. Identifying compounds with antiviral activity against 2019-nCoV may contribute to providing immediate relief to the current outbreak.

 

 

 

Quote

The requests from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University follow a recommendation from the Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica, Chinese Academy of Sciences for investigation of 30 potentially effective compounds, including darunavir – the protease inhibitor component of PREZCOBIX – against 2019-nCoV. Based on anecdotal findings, a protease inhibitor has previously shown a potential favorable clinical response against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) associated coronavirus.¹

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/johnson--johnson-launches-multi-pronged-response-to-coronavirus-global-public-health-threat-300995266.html

 

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, sawadee1947 said:

That's the point :

When I started to take my dog over to EU there was no lab in Thailand to do the rabies test. Blood sample had to send to Paris!!!! for a test ????

Yeah, my initial feeling about Thailand not having a lot of biolabs capable of diagnosing the new virus ( for which I was shouted out as Thai bashing, but hey that's a badge of honor ) was due to the hours spent in hospitals waiting for simple blood analysis results to come back. Lab equipment is very expensive, as are the labs themselves. Hurts the profit margin to have them.

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The info I posted was just a summary of a longer J&J press release on their coronavirus vaccine and treatment efforts.  It was an accurate summary.

Alright, I'm familiar with newswire so it was J&J themselves. How long would approval take and seeing some of the vaccines used earlier in the epidemics had side effect of causing narcolepsy .. I don't think a vaccine will help short term, due to non-medical reasons it's probably 4-5 years out. Of course for J&J it's a splendid business opportunity.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just now, DrTuner said:

Alright, I'm familiar with newswire so it was J&J themselves. How long would approval take and seeing some of the vaccines used earlier in the epidemics had side effect of causing narcolepsy .. I don't think a vaccine will help short term, due to non-medical reasons it's probably 4-5 years out. Of course for J&J it's a splendid business opportunity.

 

I think they're looking at both a preventive vaccine AND medication that would help treatment of existing patients.

 

We've been having a good discussion here about things related to the virus. Can't forget that the prospective medical treatment and vaccine aspects are important parts of the overall situation.

[DrTuner]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I think they're looking at both a preventive vaccine AND medication that would help treatment of existing patients.

 

We've been having a good discussion here about things related to the virus. Can't forget that the prospective medical treatment and vaccine aspects are important parts of the overall situation.

Yes, good information surfacing, need to keep on digging. The problem once it enters the business and politics side of it is information will be buried under a truckload of manure. You can still get it but you'll get very dirty digging it out. So let's enjoy it while it's fresh.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

There's a lot of activity with U.S. and other big drugmakers providing potential treatment medicines right now to the Chinese authorities. J&J is just one among them:

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-drugmakers-ship-therapies-to-china-seeking-to-treat-coronavirus-11580166592

 

 

Quote

 

U.S. drugmakers are shipping antiviral drugs to Chinese health authorities to assess whether the medicines could help contain the explosion of respiratory virus infections sweeping the country.
 

AbbVie Inc. and Johnson & Johnson are among the drugmakers that have begun shipping drugs approved to treat HIV, while Gilead Sciences Inc. is exploring whether it should send an antiviral therapy it is developing. ... Chinese authorities have requested the shipments to test the drugs’ effectiveness.
 

In addition, a Chinese government commission has recommended that doctors administer AbbVie’s HIV drug, called Kaletra, to patients who have tested positive for the new illness.

 

 

 

 

[JHolmesJr]

Singapore is inching ahead in the tally...10 cases now confirmed plus 3 who fled to Malaysia where they were 

picked up for quarantine.

[White Christmas13]

Some good news

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

[DrTuner]

24 minutes ago, JHolmesJr said:

Singapore is inching ahead in the tally...10 cases now confirmed plus 3 who fled to Malaysia where they were 

picked up for quarantine.

It's likely because they are faster in diagnosing and releasing the actual results. There's two possible reason now why Thais haven't updated: their lab capacity is overwhelmed by the 100+ tests they need to do or ... orders from above. Expect a cover up, a kneejerk and the usual jazz,

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

29 minutes ago, White Christmas13 said:

Some good news

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-29/wuhan-coronavirus-created-in-australian-lab-outside-of-china/11906390

 

It's a helpful step toward research aimed at future development of treatments, a vaccine and even a diagnostic antibodies test.

 

Quote

 

A laboratory in China had already successfully grown the virus but had released only the genome sequence, not the sample itself, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported.
 

Raina MacIntyre, who runs the Kirby Institute’s Biosecurity Research Program, said the creation and sharing of the virus sample would hasten the development of potential vaccines, as drugs could be tested on animals injected with the disease.

...

As well as contributing to the creation of a vaccine, the Australia-grown sample could be used to generate an antibody test, which would allow detection of the virus in patients who had not shown symptoms, the Doherty Institute said.

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-australia/australia-scientists-claim-first-re-creation-of-coronavirus-outside-china-idUSKBN1ZR2YD

Edited January 29, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[khunpa]

18 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

It's likely because they are faster in diagnosing and releasing the actual results. There's two possible reason now why Thais haven't updated: their lab capacity is overwhelmed by the 100+ tests they need to do or ... orders from above. Expect a cover up, a kneejerk and the usual jazz,

 

Agree that it is "strange" my Thailand has not yet updated their numbers. But since the PM yesterday said everything is under control and they today annonce possible outbreaks, I think they working on the numbers right now. I can not wait to see what numbers they come up with.

[Arthur Mullard]

11 hours ago, Mavideol said:

the greedy of Thailand doesn't allow them to be pro-active/preventive or anything that stop the influx of money into the country

and somebody made a comparison here between censorship here and in China, saying Thailand was nowhere near as bad, or something similar. Your comment on preventative measures, just made me make a similar comparison. I know which country I would trust to implement them, as fully as is humanly possible.