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Klobuchar surge in New Hampshire could reshuffle Democratic White House race


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On 2/14/2020 at 7:04 PM, Berkshire said:

Geez man, you are naive beyond belief.  So tell me, how do you think Trump got elected in 2016?  Hint: It had nothing to do with his debating skills.  Or facts, policies, ideas,...nothing like that.  Look, we're on the same team...I think.  I want Trump out, I don't care who does it. 

I know we are both happy. But how do you feel about calling me naive with these new numbers showing Sanders in the lead in Texas? 

 

I never really got to answer your question, I was too excited about responding to the "but if you add all the centrist votes together, Bernie is not winning". That statement is still coming in at the top of the horse <deleted> pile for me. 

 

Trump won largely because of qualities that Sanders has! #1 Trump is not an establishment candidate. Unfortunately for us all, he does tend to get convinced to follow the establishment policies often, like when he assassinates generals for example. 

 

#2 He was anti war and ran on pulling the troops out. 

 

That is why he won. He did not follow up on #1 or #2 actually, and people know Sanders will. 

 

The last sentence you wrote is so wrong it is difficult to even respond. It is maddening knowing people think like this. No, it does matter who takes Trump out. The right and left are united on the most important issues for us like foreign policy and health care. Wars will continue and everything will stay the same if Klobuchar is elected. I think it is arguable that a candidate like Clinton or even Klobuchar would be more warmongering than Trump. So again, no. Please stop thinking like that, it is just way too naive 🙂

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She's been my top choice all along. She performs beautifully in the senate so has credible experience. She has strong African American support in her state. She wins bigly in precincts in her state th

Laughable given what you defend in the current incumbent.

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Lastly, it looks like Sanders is more popular than any candidate, even head to head.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html

 

Klobuchar is 21 point behind him if you don't feel like clicking. 

 

There is basically no putting your head in the sand and denying any of this any longer. The mainstream media idiotic talking points lasted a while, but the numbers coming in now seem to put every doubt to rest. 

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As far as the math goes, it appears now that we're likely to be headed to a contested convention. Meaning no candidate will be able to win on the first ballot. That is unusual and means predicting a winner is nothing more than a guess. Assuming Sanders will probably be leading in delegates for the first ballot (or perhaps Bloomberg) that in no way means that it is likely that the initial top delegate getter will be nominated. Everyone knows that going on so please no cries of fixes. 

 

Of course if any candidate, Sanders included, can manage to get enough delegates for a first ballot win, then of course, they will definitely be nominated.

 

Here's the reason. About 65 percent of the delegates will be set very soon, early March. We're likely to still have lots of candidates to split all that even if Biden soon drops out. So that means that even IF (a big if) the field drops to only two candidates after that, one candidate would need to win the vast majority of remaining delegates. Because there will only be 35 percent left, that's possible but hard.

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I love all posters saying things like:

”She’s brilliant “ “She’s my favorite candidate from the beginning” on and on and on!! 
There are no cults in the USA regarding any candidate. Get your poisoned minds and repetitious behavior in check. The average person in the USA likes qualities usually in at least 2 candidates. 
Sanders will most likely be the candidate to potentially beat Trump, especially if the under 30’s come out and vote more. EVERYBODY loves free stuff!! It’s just simply true. The over 60’s will like not having to chip in for their children’s and grandchildren’s school loans and medical care as well. 
Now getting back to Amy quotes lol . How about this TRUE fact: 

“She did not know who the President of Mexico is!!” Yes America shares borders with just two countries and Amy doesn’t even know the name of the President of our neighbor with over 130 million people is!  We have a massive trade program with Mexico and she does not know this!! Stupid! 
If you can get off CNN and MSNBC ( who’s followers maybe are a cult), you might know this fact. I don’t open links here so I won’t post one. Use google and see Amy’s interview with telemundo. You think she would have used google herself before sitting down with Telemundo! 

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1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

That is unusual and means predicting a winner is nothing more than a guess.

Predicting the winner of a football game with 2 minutes left and one team has a 40 point lead is a guess too. It is just a very easy guess to make considering the situation. 

 

If you really wanna man up though, since it is "just a guess" at this point I will lay a grand on Sanders. Go ahead and pick who you like. 

 

 

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Great background on a brokered convention and explains the big difference in the situation for SUPER delegates between 2016 and 2020.

 

So again failing to win on the first ballot would be particularly bad news for Bernie.

 

If Warren is still in by then as she has seemed to have transitioned from the Bernie lane to her own "unity" lane between Bernie and the others, she might be positioned to be the best possible "compromise" choice that would make the fewest number of democrats feel disenfranchised.

 

But that would only work if the consensus for later ballots is that Warren has an excellent chance of beating 45 relative to the other choices.

 

It might be worth adding perhaps to non-Americans that see these party rules as messy and random, that party rules are the business of the parties and parties are not addressed in the

founding document of the U.S. government. 

 

https://www.pbs.org/tpt/constitution-usa-peter-sagal/we-the-people/political-parties/

 

 

For example I would be free to try to start a new party today called the Know Nothing Party (a far-right nativist political party from the mid 1800's that actually used to exist and you gotta love that name) and the rules could be nominations are based on lottery numbers. Totally legal and constitutional.  Wouldn't have any credibility but still totally legal. 

 

 

 

 

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Stop running it like some soap opera, twitter contest, popularity contest.  How about going out and getting some qualified candidates?  Isn't there any Democratic governor of some state out their that wants the job and might be good at it?  If so, put him on the platform and give the people a chance to vote for =.

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17 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

Stop running it like some soap opera, twitter contest, popularity contest.  How about going out and getting some qualified candidates?  Isn't there any Democratic governor of some state out their that wants the job and might be good at it?  If so, put him on the platform and give the people a chance to vote for =.

There were multiple democratic governors that launched candidacies for 2020 but none found any significant support so all of them have dropped out by now. So really too late.


We have our list of credibly possibles now. 

 

Quote

Cheer up, Democrats. You have a good field of candidates.

THE NEW HAMPSHIRE primary is supposed to narrow a party’s nominee roster. This year, it widened the field — and sparked much anxiety among Democrats about the persistent crowd of candidates. But there’s a bright side to all these shades of blue.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/cheer-up-democrats-you-have-a-good-field-of-candidates/2020/02/14/2a1a5a60-4f52-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

 

But for those looking for executive experience, running big stuff, Bloomberg fills that space being a three term governor of America's biggest city. 

 

Not sure what your point is about popularity contests. Elections of candidates are naturally about selecting the most popular choices. Primaries have the added twist that candidates that are most popular within a particular party may be much less popular in the country overall. 

 

This year electability is an even bigger question than it usually is, because the reelection of the current president is seen as an existential threat to the future of American democracy to a significant number of democrats. 

Edited by Jingthing
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9 hours ago, sucit said:

Lastly, it looks like Sanders is more popular than any candidate, even head to head.

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html

 

Klobuchar is 21 point behind him if you don't feel like clicking. 

 

There is basically no putting your head in the sand and denying any of this any longer. The mainstream media idiotic talking points lasted a while, but the numbers coming in now seem to put every doubt to rest. 

You appear to be all-in for Bernie.  It's too early to tell, although we can see he's doing well currently.  But this article describes why moderate Dems are concerned. 

 

[...moderate Democrats on Capitol Hill concerned that, if the self-described democratic socialist wins the party’s presidential nomination, it could jeopardize efforts to protect their House majority and take control of the Senate.]

 

["Trump is going to make this a referendum on whether you want to build on the economy we have, or junk it and turn to socialism," he said. "That does not play well for candidates in bellwether areas."]

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/moderate-democrats-worried-sanders-surge-2020-field-090034502.html

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More explanation about relatively small differences in policy proposals between democrats ultimately won't matter and even could contribute to the democratic nominee losing. Eyes on the prize. Get 45 out of there! Then keep the house. Then turn the senate. 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/14/democrats-are-wasting-time-fighting-over-policies-senate-will-never-pass/?arc404=true

 

There’s no point in fighting

Democratic candidates are wasting their time — and hurting their chances — bickering over policies they’ll never get to implement.

 

It was a sight to behold: a former vice president, two senators and a former mayor on a stage in New Hampshire a week ago, arguing over the impossible. 

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15 hours ago, alex8912 said:

I love all posters saying things like:

”She’s brilliant “ “She’s my favorite candidate from the beginning” on and on and on!! 
There are no cults in the USA regarding any candidate. Get your poisoned minds and repetitious behavior in check. The average person in the USA likes qualities usually in at least 2 candidates. 
Sanders will most likely be the candidate to potentially beat Trump, especially if the under 30’s come out and vote more. EVERYBODY loves free stuff!! It’s just simply true. The over 60’s will like not having to chip in for their children’s and grandchildren’s school loans and medical care as well. 
Now getting back to Amy quotes lol . How about this TRUE fact: 

“She did not know who the President of Mexico is!!” Yes America shares borders with just two countries and Amy doesn’t even know the name of the President of our neighbor with over 130 million people is!  We have a massive trade program with Mexico and she does not know this!! Stupid! 
If you can get off CNN and MSNBC ( who’s followers maybe are a cult), you might know this fact. I don’t open links here so I won’t post one. Use google and see Amy’s interview with telemundo. You think she would have used google herself before sitting down with Telemundo! 

well it doesnt bother some that trump got the state that won the superbowl wrong.

 

Shes not running for ofgice in mexico. If thats the worse thing she does shes miles ahead.

Edited by Sujo
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32 minutes ago, Sujo said:

well it doesnt bother some that trump got the state that won the superbowl wrong.

 

Shes not running for ofgice in mexico. If thats the worse thing she does shes miles ahead.

Agreed but it won't help her in heavily Latino Nevada. One thing you can be sure of -- she knows NOW!

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