Not just Chinese travellers staying away as virus shakes Thai tourism

[DrTuner]

Best time in years to tour Thailand is now. Zero Chinese here in Samui, 99% farangs. Sabai sabai.

[saengd]

29 minutes ago, CanuckThai said:

 

Ok.  So Thai tourism will potentially lose X, Vietnam tourism will potentially lose 2X+ of what Thailand will.  Question: is Vietnam's tourist revenue 2+ times that of Thailand, or is there that much "shrinkage" in reported tourism revenue in Thailand?  

Put it this way, tourism accounts for 8% of Vietnam's GDP and their GDP is just under half of what Thailand is,

Vietnam received 16 million tourists whereas Thailand received 39 million. So your multiplier of 2 is correct, it's just the wrong way round.

 

[saengd]

26 minutes ago, mrwinner said:

Unfortunately the figures that Thailand quote are unreliable at best, just like the corona virus figures. If people seriously think that the Thai economy is doing as well as being reported then there will be quite a few shocks in coming months and years. 

FYI Thai exports just came off an all time high, down from USD 23 billion in July 2019 to USD 19 billion in December, the last time exports were that low was in 2016. So yes, the economy is not doing too badly in some areas, despite other problems.

[SteveK]

1 hour ago, mrwinner said:

I don't think he means anything personal to the families that will suffer. But unfortunately it is them that WILL suffer due to the actions of the elite and their distain for foreigners (particularly 'farangs' who apparently should be kicked out). An economic collapse in Thailand may be good for the country and wake some people up. 

Exactly - I don't think he means any harm to anyone. But the Thai way of thinking is to ignore, ignore, ignore, do nothing and hope things blow over. The current government are not doing anything useful and it may take a massive implosion of the Thai economy for them to actually get their tongue out of Mr Jinping's backside and start doing something useful.

[masterpasser]

1 hour ago, fforest1 said:

I am predicting the virus drama will run for at least 1 year.....Time to crack down on the remaining nasty farang that are still here...

The epidemic will only end once the virus cannot infect any further hosts- The dead, the immune after having and recovering from the virus and also the quarantined .

Not a pandemic yet , but given the exponential growth of infection, highly likely .

The only continent that avoided the 1918 flu pandemic was Australia.They enforced strict quarantine laws on all shipping entering Australia. This decision saved thousands of Australian lives.

[spidermike007]

6 years of bashing and hating on foreigners by this toxic, racist administration did not help to promote Thailand, to Westerners. 

 

Now, they gambled big, by putting all of their eggs in the China basket and they lost the bet. 

 

Since Thailand is #2 in the world In Corona cases, you can see why tourists might think twice. 

 

It is a perfect storm for tourism here. The industry may never fully recover. And that is a good thing for most of us. Quantity over quality reduces the quality of life for all. 

[saengd]

7 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

6 years of bashing and hating on foreigners by this toxic, racist administration did not help to promote Thailand, to Westerners. 

 

Now, they gambled big, by putting all of their eggs in the China basket and they lost the bet. 

 

Since Thailand is #2 in the world In Corona cases, you can see why tourists might think twice. 

 

It is a perfect storm for tourism here. The industry may never fully recover. And that is a good thing for most of us. Quantity over quality reduces the quality of life for all. 

Do you really think this virus scare will last forever?

Do you really think the Chinese will not return?

Do you really think that Thai tourism will not reinvent itself like it has done so many times before?

Really?

[spidermike007]

They keep on making these tourism projections. I heard one report where forward bookings over the next three months for many hotels were down to 0% occupancy. How do you calculate that, in terms of tourism income? 

 

This situation is relatively unprecedented, with Thailand being #2 in the world for reported cases. All bets are off at the moment. 

[candide]

1 hour ago, masterpasser said:

The epidemic will only end once the virus cannot infect any further hosts- The dead, the immune after having and recovering from the virus and also the quarantined .

Not a pandemic yet , but given the exponential growth of infection, highly likely .

The only continent that avoided the 1918 flu pandemic was Australia.They enforced strict quarantine laws on all shipping entering Australia. This decision saved thousands of Australian lives.

Exactly. Due to the fact that it seems to be so easily transmitted,  'no pandemy' looks like the most unexpected outcome.

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, lujanit said:

And then there is the case of the chinese civilian reporter who was telling like it really is suddenly disappeared.

yehp.... that's how it works in China, better never tell how it really is

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

“Not too many foreigners come to visit Thailand now,” Amonchai said. “Now is very difficult.”

..... but I do see a bright future for Thailand, as soon as all of that virus fake news disappear, expecting millions of Chinese will be arriving via cargo planes, Beluga type planes 555

[BestB]

4 hours ago, monkfish said:

A lot of people on social media complaining about Hotels not refunding booking cancellations so i was wondering at what point legally they will have to start issuing refunds.

Legally hotels do not have to provide refund on a non refundable bookings or bookings outside cancellation free policy. Travel insurance may cover the cancellation but if there is no travel warning and person is not sick, I do not think it would be a legitimate claim . Chinese for example could lodge a claim as China officially restricting travel outside 

[madmen]

48 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

6 years of bashing and hating on foreigners by this toxic, racist administration did not help to promote Thailand, to Westerners. 

 

Now, they gambled big, by putting all of their eggs in the China basket and they lost the bet. 

 

Since Thailand is #2 in the world In Corona cases, you can see why tourists might think twice. 

 

It is a perfect storm for tourism here. The industry may never fully recover. And that is a good thing for most of us. Quantity over quality reduces the quality of life for all. 

Tourism will bounce straight back in Teflon Thailand as it has every single time there was a "last nail in the tourist coffin" 

[Mavideol]

2 minutes ago, madmen said:

Tourism will bounce straight back in Teflon Thailand as it has every single time there was a "last nail in the tourist coffin" 

before maybe but not this time..... they will suffer for years to come, Chinese, high baht, poor service, xenophobic comments/actions, IMO visa rules change, growing corruption, poor/bad government performance... they will not see the end of the tunnel for quite some time, they bet on the wrong horse by placing all of it in the Chinese....

[Guest]

not

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

before maybe but not this time..... they will suffer for years to come, Chinese, high baht, poor service, xenophobic comments/actions, IMO visa rules change, growing corruption, poor/bad government performance... they will not see the end of the tunnel for quite some time, they bet on the wrong horse by placing all of it in the Chinese....

add on the TM3O reporting to that which has alienated almost all innocent expats at this point. loads have gone home already

[spidermike007]

47 minutes ago, madmen said:

Tourism will bounce straight back in Teflon Thailand as it has every single time there was a "last nail in the tourist coffin" 

We take our chances in life and sometimes we make a big bet. Having bet the entire farm on Chinese tourism, and then going out of their way to alienate the rest of the world, appears to have been a bit foolhardy and arrogant, at the moment. Only time will tell. 

[madmitch]

1 hour ago, BestB said:

Legally hotels do not have to provide refund on a non refundable bookings or bookings outside cancellation free policy. Travel insurance may cover the cancellation but if there is no travel warning and person is not sick, I do not think it would be a legitimate claim . Chinese for example could lodge a claim as China officially restricting travel outside 

You are right but the various online agents have requested that hotels be flexible with their cancellation policies for anyone cancelling as a result of coronavirus. The agents lose out as well as they take commission on cancellation fees.

 

As far as travel insurabce goes, I said in another threda, it depends upon the wording. My gut feel is that most policies won't pay (some actually have exclusions for epidemics and pandemics) but some might.

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Now, they gambled big, by putting all of their eggs in the China basket and they lost the bet.

Yes they did, hard luck I guess. Better luck next time ????

[Jimbo2014]

The appalling environment had nothing to do with it then?  Im sure tourists love to holiday in smog and trash.

[madmen]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

before maybe but not this time..... they will suffer for years to come, Chinese, high baht, poor service, xenophobic comments/actions, IMO visa rules change, growing corruption, poor/bad government performance... they will not see the end of the tunnel for quite some time, they bet on the wrong horse by placing all of it in the Chinese....

You must be joking. The last coup was supposed to be the final nail. And the red yellow shirt wars with bombs, shopping malls on fire, murders, tanks and the shut down of swampy was absolutely and defiantly the last nail..Damn that coffin is pure lead

Betting on what wrong horse? Thailand cant force Chinese to come any more than force the Russians. Those that will come will come.

 

Im in Pattaya and its still busy and no I dont live here. Sure there is a downturn just like in Vietnam and Cambodia . To be expected under the circumstances 

Edited February 12, 2020 by madmen

[monkfish]

1 hour ago, BestB said:

Legally hotels do not have to provide refund on a non refundable bookings or bookings outside cancellation free policy. Travel insurance may cover the cancellation but if there is no travel warning and person is not sick, I do not think it would be a legitimate claim . Chinese for example could lodge a claim as China officially restricting travel outside 

OK so I presume Hotel's aren't losing out too much at the moment as they have already been paid up front but they will probably later in the year if the situation doesn't improve.

[Peterbilt]

5 hours ago, madmen said:

Just wow. 

 

Carrying that level of hate is sick 

He is most likely just "reflecting" the hate we get from those Thais........

[bkkcanuck8]

4 hours ago, CanuckThai said:

 

Ok.  So Thai tourism will potentially lose X, Vietnam tourism will potentially lose 2X+ of what Thailand will.  Question: is Vietnam's tourist revenue 2+ times that of Thailand, or is there that much "shrinkage" in reported tourism revenue in Thailand?  

No, just Vietnam is likely being much more honest about the impact while at the end of the year TAT will likely say tourism grew by 5% YOY again (just like they do when the shop owners are saying tourism off by 30 - 40%). 

 

The impact will be sharp and staggering this year, and then it will likely be many years for it to recuperate as people will continue to have altered their travel patterns (especially companies which will encourage less travel / conferences and more teleconferencing again) -- and until the memory fades a little those travel patterns will be depressed - hitting tourism even after the pandemic has burnt itself out.

[soalbundy]

where are all the Indian saviours ?

[madmen]

19 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

No, just Vietnam is likely being much more honest about the impact while at the end of the year TAT will likely say tourism grew by 5% YOY again (just like they do when the shop owners are saying tourism off by 30 - 40%). 

 

The impact will be sharp and staggering this year, and then it will likely be many years for it to recuperate as people will continue to have altered their travel patterns (especially companies which will encourage less travel / conferences and more teleconferencing again) -- and until the memory fades a little those travel patterns will be depressed - hitting tourism even after the pandemic has burnt itself out.

Vietnam is being honest based on what, a gut feel? 

 

Were you on the. Vietnam loves us more bandwagon just before they announced the very shocking we  love you less visa changes? 

 

Vietnam screwed themselves just before Corona and I know 3 friends heading back to Thailand in the coming months 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by madmen

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

where are all the Indian saviours ?

the comments they made about turning to the Indian market was merely a stunt/lie to instil some hope into the local businesses who are suffering. It is quite clear that the Indian market has never and will never be as lucrative as the European/Western 'farang' market. but they've really shot themselves in the foot over the last 6 years it is hard to see a shift back anytime soon. 

[impulse]

7 hours ago, lujanit said:

On a minor note I have noticed the downturn here as I order things on Aliexpress and the majority have not been shipped.  One order goes back to Jan 16.

 

That's normal this time of year.

 

[impulse]

3 hours ago, mrwinner said:

not

add on the TM3O reporting to that which has alienated almost all innocent expats at this point. loads have gone home already

 

I'd bet that 99% of Thailand's tourists don't even know what a TM30 is.

 

[ExpatLife]

7 hours ago, SteveK said:

That was SerpentZA on YouTube.

It's crazy how he has been given the green light by the government in China to film and produce videos for so many years, all the while bashing then country and culture daily. He does say positive things here and there, but it really is quite an odd setup he's got going 

[ExpatLife]

1 hour ago, madmen said:

Vietnam is being honest based on what, a gut feel? 

 

Were you on the. Vietnam loves us more bandwagon just before they announced the very shocking we  love you less visa changes? 

 

Vietnam screwed themselves just before Corona and I know 3 friends heading back to Thailand in the coming months 

 

 

What did they change? I know of an English couple who packed up and moved there mid 2019