Virus numbers stable, recoveries continue

[snoop1130]

Virus numbers stable, recoveries continue

By THE NATION

 

 

Another victim of the COVID-19 coronavirus in Thailand has fully recovered and been discharged, the Department of Disease Control reported on Thursday (February 13).

 

“The number of cases remains the same at 33,” director-general Dr Suwanchai Wattanayingcharoenchai said.

 

“The number of confirmed infected patients currently under hospital care is 21, while 12 have fully recovered and been discharged, the latest being a male Chinese national.”

 

Suwanchai announced that the Public Health Ministry, Chiang Mai University and the National Research Council of Thailand had developed an online self-screening program people can use if they think they might be infected. It’s a questionnaire available in Thai, Chinese and English at http://sescimande.net/Self-Screening.

 

On completion of the questionnaire, the user is classified as either “no risk”, “medium risk” or “high risk”. A recommended course of action is provided for each category.

 

Dr Thanarak Phaliphat, the department’s deputy director-general, said it might expand mandatory screening procedures to include people arriving from Singapore and Hong Kong, where infections are on the rise at an accelerated rate.

 

“We are closely monitoring the situation in both locations and if the numbers continue to rise at this rate in the next few days, we will increase the screening level for people coming from there,” he said.

 

Thanarak said that, as an extra precaution, surveillance would be intensified for anyone in tourist-popular provinces like Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phuket, Krabi and Chonburi who has contracted pneumonia without apparent reason.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382082

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-13

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[spiekerjozef]

Maybe the smart beamer has corona virus sensors on it's roof?

[BobbyL]

Good news with regards to this over recent days for Thailand. I was wrong as I was expecting cases to be steadily rising. 

[sirineou]

Very good news indeed. lets hope they continue. 

[DrTuner]

Yesyes suresure. So, how big is the diagnosis backlog?

[yokat]

They are either extremely lucky or not truthful, with the amount of chinese still coming to Thailand it's incredible that they did not spot more infected.

[Fex Bluse]

Seems a few of you posting here believe the Thai government is 1) capable of capturing the correct numbers and 2) willing to report them truthfully

 

Even whilst knowing they are more concerned with tourism than the safety of their own people.

 

Ok

[BigBadGeordie]

4 hours ago, BobbyL said:

Good news with regards to this over recent days for Thailand. I was wrong as I was expecting cases to be steadily rising. 

It is wise to never speak too soon.

Or, perhaps, you think the situation is "100% under control"?

[geriatrickid]

I am delighted to report that help is on the way, globally. 300 of the top public health officials, researchers and experts have concluded an emergency meeting in Geneva. The Chinese reps requested that the emphasis be on patient recovery and in keeping patients alive. They are focusing on drug treatments and vaccines.

Several western governments who support the Chinese  initiative will also be emphasizing transmission prevention (infection prevention) , quarantine protocols, protection of health care workers. etc.  The USA will lead the way with funding for domestic protection, especially vaccine initiative. 

The trickle own impact  will be that Thailand will eventually benefit once other countries have vaccines as the tourists will return if protected. Unfortunately for Thailand, it remains a country at risk as long as ineffective screening measures are in place. It will take some time though; 6-18 months at best.

 

[englishoak]

If you believe these statements your a fool. 

[Twin Peaks]

4 minutes ago, englishoak said:

If you believe these statements your a fool. 

Yep. And a Nigerian prince has loads of cash for you. Simply send your banking information and you will be a millionaire in a matter of minutes.

 

It's not called "Amazing Thailand" for nothing.

Edited February 13, 2020 by Twin Peaks

[herwin1234]

virus numbers stable, patients recovering, no deaths yet, seems like the "incompetent" Thai officials have the situation under control. WHAT A BUMMER FOR ALL THE CYNICAL FARANGS!! 

[legend49]

10 hours ago, BigBadGeordie said:

It is wise to never speak too soon.

Or, perhaps, you think the situation is "100% under control"?

Todays report. Deaths still rising significantly daily along with new sufferers

 

Coronavirus Cases:

65,247

view by country

Deaths:

1,491

[Haecksler]

16 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Yesyes suresure. So, how big is the diagnosis backlog?

I am always agree with that point. They don't show it any more.

Now just assume that 2% of the cases of PUI where infected and recovered they would have infected many  incl. hospital staff and others during their time in and of the hospital, assuming they are not treated in quarantine. This infected people if severe symptoms are developed will go to hospital and searching for help, right or wrong?

So why is this number now decreasing?? I mean this number would be not easy to twist as doctors, nurses and patience would possibly post on social media if hospitals are beginning to fill up...?

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/img/declaration/banner_declaration.jpg

There are now only 150 people PUI. The rest is gone treated. Whether they was positive or not nobody knows. 

The big question is how we should interpret those numbers knowing they derived from a not really trustworthy source.

[Caldera]

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

[DrTuner]

14 minutes ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

A good point. However the symptoms are similar to a flu, many will be misdiagnosed.

 

There might be a saving grace in that the virus could lose potency in the tropics, might be specific to some DNA Chinese have, could be milder once transmitted through humans .. who knows. WHO doesn't know though.

 

We need to wait and see, too early to tell anything except Thais went into coverup mode right out the bat. I expected no less.

[zydeco]

21 minutes ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret.

Of course they could keep it secret. No test = no diagnosis. No diagnosis = no virus.

[zydeco]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

We need to wait and see, too early to tell anything except Thais went into coverup mode right out the bat. I expected no less.

And, this, is where things begin and end, here. Some people have made a decision simply not to try and count the numbers. Remember, no virus in Indonesia and Burma, too. 

[DrTuner]

Just now, zydeco said:

Of course they could keep it secret. No test = no diagnosis. No diagnosis = no virus.

But at some point ICUs will be overflowing, that will be hard to cover up.

 

Could take the Wuhan chart as basis and estimate when it'll hit BKK. I haven't done that, how long ago did Wuhan have 50-100 confirmed cases? 

[zydeco]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

But at some point ICUs will be overflowing, that will be hard to cover up.

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

[MikeyScars]

46 minutes ago, zydeco said:

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/situation-no40-120263.pdf

 

Came out two days ago.

Statistics on current situation in Thailand. (go to page 5).

I always find the numbers very very sketchy....

[Haecksler]

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

Can't be more agree I also don't throw out the all - clear- message but 3 weeks since Wuhan is closed, I just backed off and watched. What I see now is far away from an outbreak in Thailand. Yes they might be lucky as all of the Chinese are disappeared and the the infected are cured and the virus might dislike the hot climate. 

How ever as long the situation in China is that severe there is still the advice of caution appropriate. 

[Haecksler]

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

Indeed this thing still scares the s...i out of me/us.

But the numbers might give us some sort of a breather. How ever if you you see this page    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/      and just, without any scientific attempt, you'll get the result of 4% severe cases outside China.

That's X40 of a flu as far as I know. That means if you get it the possibility to end up in ICU is very high.

Watching the numbers and protect your self and your family still the best advice at this moment.

[Redline]

20 hours ago, BobbyL said:

Good news with regards to this over recent days for Thailand. I was wrong as I was expecting cases to be steadily rising. 

Don’t believe everything you read.  How did the Indians get the virus in BKK?  For some reason it is only multiplying in the most developed countries in Asia-Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong-very strange, as they have great health care systems.  Many people recover without testing or hospitalization, but they are still spreaders 

[Denim]

In other related news :

 

China again reported a big jump in coronavirus cases on Friday after changing its methodology for diagnosing and counting infections, denting hopes that the deadly outbreak could be petering out.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/14/6806aa08-4eb8-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

[khunpa]

Well, as I see it there are 2 short term outcomes:

 

1. The virus is somehow really under control in Thailand and figures will keep dropping. (If so extremely lucky or the virus could be having hard times spreading in air polluted areas)

 

2. At some point the figures will simply explode, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation.

 

Lets hope for no. 1.

Edited February 14, 2020 by khunpa

[DrTuner]

17 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Well, as I see it there are 2 short term outcomes:

 

1. The virus is somehow really under control in Thailand and figures will keep dropping. (If so extremely lucky or the virus could be having hard times spreading in air polluted areas)

 

2. At some point the figures will simply explode, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation.

 

Lets hope for no. 1.

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

[Haecksler]

16 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

It would be the logic outcome concerning the fact that Thailand does only little to contain the virus.

Therefore those numbers on the MoPH web page are difficult to believe. By the way now only 117 in hospital versus 660 dismissed. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

[PingRoundTheWorld]

21 hours ago, yokat said:

They are either extremely lucky or not truthful, with the amount of chinese still coming to Thailand it's incredible that they did not spot more infected.

Probably a bit of both. Viruses like that spread much easier in cold and dry weather, Thailand being hot and humid is the ideal weather to avoid mass transmission. It's possible that the confirmed Chinese tourist cases are far higher than the touted figures, but local transmissions are probably low. They couldn't keep massive local transmission a secret as social media would be booming with reports, and censorship isn't nearly as efficient as in China.

[englishoak]

China Now Openly Fabricating Numbers: Beijing Lowers Coronavirus Deaths By 108 Due To "Double Counting"

Yesterday, when China shockingly reported a huge jump in new Coronavirus infections due to a "change in definition" of how it counted confirmed cases, resulting in a surge of nearly 15,000 new infections in Hubei alone, it made a mistake:  One day later China appears to have realized just how flagrant this "mistake" - which exposed the lie which Chinese officials had used until now to avoid a panic, and reset the infection count to a sharply higher number - https://www.zerohedge.com/health/china-now-openly-fabricating-numbers-beijing-lowers-coronavirus-deaths-108-due-double