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Virus numbers stable, recoveries continue

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14 minutes ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

A good point. However the symptoms are similar to a flu, many will be misdiagnosed.

 

There might be a saving grace in that the virus could lose potency in the tropics, might be specific to some DNA Chinese have, could be milder once transmitted through humans .. who knows. WHO doesn't know though.

 

We need to wait and see, too early to tell anything except Thais went into coverup mode right out the bat. I expected no less.

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3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

We need to wait and see, too early to tell anything except Thais went into coverup mode right out the bat. I expected no less.

And, this, is where things begin and end, here. Some people have made a decision simply not to try and count the numbers. Remember, no virus in Indonesia and Burma, too. 

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Just now, zydeco said:

Of course they could keep it secret. No test = no diagnosis. No diagnosis = no virus.

But at some point ICUs will be overflowing, that will be hard to cover up.

 

Could take the Wuhan chart as basis and estimate when it'll hit BKK. I haven't done that, how long ago did Wuhan have 50-100 confirmed cases? 

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7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

But at some point ICUs will be overflowing, that will be hard to cover up.

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

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1 hour ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

Can't be more agree I also don't throw out the all - clear- message but 3 weeks since Wuhan is closed, I just backed off and watched. What I see now is far away from an outbreak in Thailand. Yes they might be lucky as all of the Chinese are disappeared and the the infected are cured and the virus might dislike the hot climate. 

How ever as long the situation in China is that severe there is still the advice of caution appropriate. 

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1 hour ago, zydeco said:

Maybe. But I've seen some pretty impressive coverups by certain institutions in this country. 

Indeed this thing still scares the s...i out of me/us.

But the numbers might give us some sort of a breather. How ever if you you see this page    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/      and just, without any scientific attempt, you'll get the result of 4% severe cases outside China.

That's X40 of a flu as far as I know. That means if you get it the possibility to end up in ICU is very high.

Watching the numbers and protect your self and your family still the best advice at this moment.

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20 hours ago, BobbyL said:

Good news with regards to this over recent days for Thailand. I was wrong as I was expecting cases to be steadily rising. 

Don’t believe everything you read.  How did the Indians get the virus in BKK?  For some reason it is only multiplying in the most developed countries in Asia-Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong-very strange, as they have great health care systems.  Many people recover without testing or hospitalization, but they are still spreaders 

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In other related news :

 

China again reported a big jump in coronavirus cases on Friday after changing its methodology for diagnosing and counting infections, denting hopes that the deadly outbreak could be petering out.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/14/6806aa08-4eb8-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

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Well, as I see it there are 2 short term outcomes:

 

1. The virus is somehow really under control in Thailand and figures will keep dropping. (If so extremely lucky or the virus could be having hard times spreading in air polluted areas)

 

2. At some point the figures will simply explode, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation.

 

Lets hope for no. 1.

Edited by khunpa

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17 minutes ago, khunpa said:

Well, as I see it there are 2 short term outcomes:

 

1. The virus is somehow really under control in Thailand and figures will keep dropping. (If so extremely lucky or the virus could be having hard times spreading in air polluted areas)

 

2. At some point the figures will simply explode, due to lack of proper testing, reporting and isolation.

 

Lets hope for no. 1.

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

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16 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

It would be the logic outcome concerning the fact that Thailand does only little to contain the virus.

Therefore those numbers on the MoPH web page are difficult to believe. By the way now only 117 in hospital versus 660 dismissed. https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

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21 hours ago, yokat said:

They are either extremely lucky or not truthful, with the amount of chinese still coming to Thailand it's incredible that they did not spot more infected.

Probably a bit of both. Viruses like that spread much easier in cold and dry weather, Thailand being hot and humid is the ideal weather to avoid mass transmission. It's possible that the confirmed Chinese tourist cases are far higher than the touted figures, but local transmissions are probably low. They couldn't keep massive local transmission a secret as social media would be booming with reports, and censorship isn't nearly as efficient as in China.

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China Now Openly Fabricating Numbers: Beijing Lowers Coronavirus Deaths By 108 Due To "Double Counting"

Yesterday, when China shockingly reported a huge jump in new Coronavirus infections due to a "change in definition" of how it counted confirmed cases, resulting in a surge of nearly 15,000 new infections in Hubei alone, it made a mistake:  One day later China appears to have realized just how flagrant this "mistake" - which exposed the lie which Chinese officials had used until now to avoid a panic, and reset the infection count to a sharply higher number - https://www.zerohedge.com/health/china-now-openly-fabricating-numbers-beijing-lowers-coronavirus-deaths-108-due-double

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