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Virus numbers stable, recoveries continue

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33 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

I'm betting on 2 and panic spreading out at the point where the hospitals are overrun. Results should be in in 2-3 weeks, we'll see.

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

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19 minutes ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

Good point but in Wuhan the infected people where much concentrated and don't forget the big dinner a couple of meters away from the wet marked.

Here the whole thing is much more scattered and assuming that many people might totally unaware because they never where in China.

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1 hour ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

It took Wuhan about 15 days from first reports of the disease on 12/31 to the start of exponential growth from 1/16 onward. By 1/22 there were 566 confirmed cases. The first report in Thailand was a month ago (1/13), and of course many more came on 1/25. If we are to follow the Wuhan example then exponential growth of confirmed cases in Thailand should've started already at least 1-2 weeks ago. Unless of course they're lying and there's already hundreds of cases.

Remind us all of the number of fatalities in the rest of the world, excluding China and then try and get the word exponential into the description of the change since mid January.

 

I hear a mutant start goat is about to devour our planet soon....

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4 hours ago, Caldera said:

While I share the skepticism that Thai officials might not be telling the truth, I think it has to be said that it would be impossible - in Thailand - to keep a major outbreak secret. Nurses and doctors use Facebook and Line just like any other Thai, and unlike the Chinese government, their Thai counterpart cannot outright delete posts they don't like (only threaten action later). The Korat mall shooting is a perfect example for that.

 

I don't think that they have the situation under control, mind you. I just think that they've been quite lucky so far.

 

I have to agree with this....there is no word on 'the grapevine' as yet.....and that grapevine tells me all sorts of sordid things about particular people etc etc.... Again, from what I have read and seen the virus is LESS LIKELY to survive very long in the temps we are having here right now. Doctors are looking to contain it till the Northern hemispheres summer for a reason. They obviously feel making it to that point will help to slow it at least. I am skeptical but I am hopeful. 

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20 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

I have to agree with this....there is no word on 'the grapevine' as yet.....and that grapevine tells me all sorts of sordid things about particular people etc etc.... Again, from what I have read and seen the virus is LESS LIKELY to survive very long in the temps we are having here right now. Doctors are looking to contain it till the Northern hemispheres summer for a reason. They obviously feel making it to that point will help to slow it at least. I am skeptical but I am hopeful. 

But what about Singapore? 

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39 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

They get more and more case pretty much everyday. 

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1 hour ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

Yeah, not going to argue. As I said, it 'seems' that flus dont do so well in higher temps.....The temp in Wuhan is a lot colder than Singapore....I know the rates in Singapore are climbing, but is it anywhere near the rate in China? Again, I am about as far away from being a doctor as Hillary Clinton is being the next president of the good ole U.S.A

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Maybe Thailand should take control of the Chinese problems or advise them then... :whistling:

 

China Says Nearly 2,000 Doctors & Nurses Infected As Shortages Of Medical Supplies Persist

 

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On 2/13/2020 at 6:58 PM, Fex Bluse said:

Seems a few of you posting here believe the Thai government is 1) capable of capturing the correct numbers and 2) willing to report them truthfully

They were able to capture some number in the beginning so I assume the problem is with the reporting part

Edited by yokat
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19 hours ago, rkidlad said:

But what about Singapore? 

That does indeed speak against the temperature theory. Population density might be a factor in the local R0 value.

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8 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

One more victim is a Thai nurse: https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/138717/

 

They also mention discharging a Chinese "sex tourist".

2 are in severe condition. Won't be long before Thailand clocks it's first death in. The question is will they attribute it to other causes. Would not be surprised.

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9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

2 are in severe condition. Won't be long before Thailand clocks it's first death in. The question is will they attribute it to other causes. Would not be surprised.

It's interesting that they say that they are already using plasma with antibodies from recovered patients to treat those who are still sick. I read this morning that the Chinese are also doing this with great results. Unfortunately, it doesn't prevent reinfection since the immune system doesn't learn itself how to create the antibodies. 

Edited by Tayaout

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1 hour ago, Tayaout said:

One more victim is a Thai nurse: https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/138717/

 

They also mention discharging a Chinese "sex tourist".


Wonder how they are reacting to a nurse being infected. How may of her patients and co-workers has she infected? And how many in contact with those have they infected? Also what about the family members?

 

Just this one nurse means a lot of detective work to trace and isolate possible new cases.

 

The question is. Are they doing this? I doubt it.

Edited by khunpa
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