saengd Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Take a couple of countries that you trust slightly more to be honest and up front about the numbers, who do you like, Japan and the UK or maybe Singapore? Watch the relationship between the number of cases and deaths in those locations and see if they are any different from Thailand and maybe add them to our watch list also. Then see if the ratio of those countries, cases vs deaths, even meets that of China, betcha it doesn't, let alone exceed China where the death toll is, er, ahem, massively understated, cough cough.That's the sort of proof I need to see before the idea holds water. Please, no more postings of "proof" from the Daily Star, Zero hodge podge or gardeners weekly! And my favorite, the ratio of the number of Chinese tourists per year vs the number of cases, stop stop, my sides hurt! Why not the number of lamp posts divided by the number of 7/11's, minus pi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 (edited) @SaengI don't have proof that death are under reported and it's not really relevant but you cant compare the care from an overrun hospital in Wuhan in a city under quarantine in a secretive communist country that has been suspected to give false information in many other cases (economy, 144 flu death in 2018) with the healthcare someone would receive when ICU and doctor are available. Furthermore, all cities are lagging 1-2 months behind Wuhan. With that said I agree there is plenty of crazy speculation that are just speculation. We will never know the truth. Edited February 16, 2020 by Tayaout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Tayaout said: @SaengI don't have proof that death are under reported and it's not really relevant but you cant compare the care from an overrun hospital in Wuhan in a city under quarantine in a secretive communist country that has been suspected to give false information in many other cases (economy, 144 flu death in 2018) with the healthcare someone would receive when ICU and doctor are available. Furthermore, all cities are lagging 1-2 months behind Wuhan. With that said I agree there is plenty of crazy speculation that are just speculation. We will never know the truth. OK that's good, if people say that don't actually have any proof then they can stop saying it because it's unhelpful to most people if they do. The acid test will when we see what happens to the numbers in a month or so time in places like the UK and other countries that are only now in the early stages of the cycle. I think the ratio of fatalities to cases will remain much lower than we have seen in China, meaning that the number of fatalities in China is largely as reported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Today, I went to Myanmar via land border. They asked to declare if I went to China in the last month, they checked my temperature and they were all wearing N95 mask. On my way back to Thailand: nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Tayaout said: Today, I went to Myanmar via land border. They asked to declare if I went to China in the last month, they checked my temperature and they were all wearing N95 mask. On my way back to Thailand: nothing! Thailand bordering Burma could be more dangerous than current flights from China. What's going to happen in Burma when WERS a/k/a COVID-19 spreads around? Impressions from a 2-week trip there in 2012 are that the health care system would be quickly overwhelmed, and zombies will overrun the border!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christophe75 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I would like to demonstrate the "double-speak" of China, and its duplicity. A few posts behind, I copy-pasted a headline from Global Times, a chinese media in english. An official one. "is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper" Can you find something more official, hum ? And more censored ? "ban of private cars in Hubei province". That was february 16. And considering that Hubei province = 58 millions of people, that was a huge news. A tremendous news, right ? Guess what ? They have erased it ! Check by yourself : https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml There is still the ban in Wuhan city (january 25), but the one in Hubei province... simply gone. And even better.. you can still find the tweet from Global Times ! I guess the intern didn't do his job properly. ???? https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1228953604121219076 Voila. A proof (someone was asking for proof). China didn't change. Doesn't change. They're lying, cheating, and lying again. It's the DNA of the regime since 1949. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, christophe75 said: I would like to demonstrate the "double-speak" of China, and its duplicity. A few posts behind, I copy-pasted a headline from Global Times, a chinese media in english. An official one. "is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper" Can you find something more official, hum ? And more censored ? "ban of private cars in Hubei province". That was february 16. And considering that Hubei province = 58 millions of people, that was a huge news. A tremendous news, right ? Guess what ? They have erased it ! Check by yourself : https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml There is still the ban in Wuhan city (january 25), but the one in Hubei province... simply gone. And even better.. you can still find the tweet from Global Times ! I guess the intern didn't do his job properly. ???? https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1228953604121219076 Voila. A proof (someone was asking for proof). China didn't change. Doesn't change. They're lying, cheating, and lying again. It's the DNA of the regime since 1949. Hot news, China censors its press, who'd have thunk it! Look on the bright side, at least they don't have pseudo toilet paper such as the Express, the Daily Mirror, The Sun and the Daily Star! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, christophe75 said: I would like to demonstrate the "double-speak" of China, and its duplicity. A few posts behind, I copy-pasted a headline from Global Times, a chinese media in english. An official one. "is a daily tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's People's Daily newspaper" Can you find something more official, hum ? And more censored ? "ban of private cars in Hubei province". That was february 16. And considering that Hubei province = 58 millions of people, that was a huge news. A tremendous news, right ? Guess what ? They have erased it ! Check by yourself : https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml There is still the ban in Wuhan city (january 25), but the one in Hubei province... simply gone. And even better.. you can still find the tweet from Global Times ! I guess the intern didn't do his job properly. ???? https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1228953604121219076 Voila. A proof (someone was asking for proof). China didn't change. Doesn't change. They're lying, cheating, and lying again. It's the DNA of the regime since 1949. This lying is a cultural phenomenon, probably from thousands of years of authoritarian regimes in China. People have to survive in a pyramidal social structure with draconian punishments awaiting violators of repressive "laws", the age-old rule by law. Lying in various forms is necessary to claw one's way to a level where one can survive WERS a/k/a COVID-19 or evade whatever edict will kill off those who lack the wits to successfully dissemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stargeezr Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Chinas numbers may be low, and I think that they are not the only country with low numbers. I also think that a lot more people have died from this virus than we will ever know. Geezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) Israel will now self-quarantine 14 days Israeli (and maybe deny Non-citizen?) coming from Thailand, China, Singapore and Macau. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-introduces-self-quarantine-for-travelers-from-4-east-asian-destinations/ Edited February 17, 2020 by Tayaout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParkerN Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 On 2/15/2020 at 4:18 PM, Jonathan Fairfield said: “The Ministry of Public Health therefore would like to insist that all medical staff in both the government and private sectors to strictly follow the virus prevention and control measures and use appropriate protective equipment when interacting with patients.” Hmmm. Glistening record and yet the need is felt for this exhortation... Perhaps... call me a cynic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 hours ago, ParkerN said: Hmmm. Glistening record and yet the need is felt for this exhortation... Perhaps... call me a cynic. No different from Korea, Vietnam or Singapore really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian223 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Was just reading this study which uses a statistical analysis for case predictions based on air travel from Wuhan. The authors come to the conclusion that Thailand and Indonesia may have higher than reported cases. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v2.full.pdf+html And also came across this study, estimating COVID19 import risk by country using modeling based on air travel: http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/ Interesting to see data driven studies coming to a conclusion that many people are suspecting. That being said, I truly hope Thailand’s lower than predicted cases are genuine. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fraggleRock Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 hours ago, Tayaout said: Israel will now self-quarantine 14 days Israeli (and maybe deny Non-citizen?) coming from Thailand, China, Singapore and Macau. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-introduces-self-quarantine-for-travelers-from-4-east-asian-destinations/ I wish I stayed there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
placnx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 14 hours ago, Ian223 said: Was just reading this study which uses a statistical analysis for case predictions based on air travel from Wuhan. The authors come to the conclusion that Thailand and Indonesia may have higher than reported cases. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v2.full.pdf+html And also came across this study, estimating COVID19 import risk by country using modeling based on air travel: http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/ Interesting to see data driven studies coming to a conclusion that many people are suspecting. That being said, I truly hope Thailand’s lower than predicted cases are genuine. Fingers crossed. The Berlin paper is impressive and useful. For economic reasons, i.e. very few passengers, a lot of airlines will suspend flights. They will only keep flying if ordered to do so. After Corona has a high number of cases in the developed world, there will not be any further need to stop flights from airports close to the origin of WERS a/k/a COVID-19! By that time poor countries will presumably have burned out, in that enough people will have been infected for survivors to have herd immunity. Infection of sub-Saharan Africa by some of the million Chinese already there will possibly leave a reservoir to infect the rest of the Southern Hemisphere while the Northern is in recovery mode with warmer weather. Hopefully no virulent mutations will come out of this. By that time let's hope that several vaccine candidates are available to try on health care workers, and that later these vaccines are of a kind that can be scaled up to protect populations, should this virus become a part of the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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