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Economy may grow more than 3 per cent next year, says BOT

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Economy may grow more than 3 per cent next year, says BOT

By The Nation

 

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BOT Senior Director of Economic and Policy Department, Don Nakornthab

 

Outbreak of the coronavirus will deal a heavy blow to the Thai economy in the first quarter but a gradually recovery is expected and could lead to growth of above 3 per cent next year.

 

Bank of Thailand (BOT) said impact of coronavirus outbreak would be the hardest in the first quarter while reassuring that the economy would expand by 3 per cent next year.

 

BOT Senior Director of Economic and Policy Department, Don Nakornthab said on Monday (February 17) that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth stood at 2.4 per cent in the last quarter of 2019 , while the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) put GDP expansion at 1.5-2.5 per cent this year.

 

“NESDC 's projection was lower than BOT's estimation,” he added. “BOT estimated GDP growth in the fourth quarter at 2.5 per cent, and at 2.8 per cent this year”.

 

“Thailand's economy fell sharply, mainly due to drought and delay of the fiscal 2020 budget,” he said.

 

Moreover, Don added that the coronavirus outbreak was beyond the expectations of all parties.

 

At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on February 5, it was agreed that the Thai economy this year would expand lower than the BOT's estimate. "Thus, the committee decided to cut policy rate to its lowest level of 1 per cent,” Don said.

 

BOT will release latest projections of the economy on March 25. It will closely monitor the virus situation as it is a significant factor dampening economic expansion.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30382297

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-02-18

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4 minutes ago, Chang_paarp said:

Growth! Growth! The catch cry of the economist.

 

Given that even TAT are admitting that tourism (10-20% of GDP) is down 50%, the growth prediction is a little self serving as next year some or most of the tourists will have returned and the economy will grow relative to the poor year this year. 

 

This bloke is looking like he wants to take a position on the TAT board.

You are correct. It is a safe prediction given the blow they will experience this year.

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Over optimistic as usual, they think everything will be back to normal next year..... need to rethink again. 

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Give it a month or 2, same guy giving a revised forecast.

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At the start of any journey there is hope.  And thus it is for the annual ritual of deflating predictions of Thai economic growth.

Image result for pie in the sky

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4 hours ago, Chang_paarp said:

the growth prediction is a little self serving

Growth predictions are worth nothing as there are so many factors , ( Viruses , natural disasters caused by climate change ) , that they cannot calculate .

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5 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Actually as funny as this seems on first reading, it is probably true. If the Thai economy goes down the pan this year like toilet duck, achieving a 3% growth on a previously bad year (2020) 'may' well be achievable next. 

  Unfortunately, economic cycles rarely move in quick bursts.  They tend to move slowly in one direction for a prolonged period of time.  

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3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Actually as funny as this seems on first reading, it is probably true. If the Thai economy goes down the pan this year like toilet duck, achieving a 3% growth on a previously bad year (2020) 'may' well be achievable next. 

I agree, can also see some Chinese industry moving this way now that the frailty of the worlds designated factory has been revealed! The supply lines haven't been hit yet, that should be interesting once it starts!

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