Israel Expands Coronavirus Quarantine to Thailand, Hong Kong Arrivals

[Enoon]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Both figures are incredibly high compared to regular seasonal flu which kills 10.6 per 100,000 people in the 50+ age range, 1 in 100,000 in the 5-16 age range, and 2 in 100,000 in the 17-49 age range. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But not "incredibly high" when compared "like for like".......SARS mortality was over 9%.

 

This one, as you point out, 2.58% worst case, less than 1% best.

 

I'm standing in a crowd of 100 infected people, at worst less than 3 of us are going to die from it, big deal.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Enoon

[Redline]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

A sensible move by Israel, if this were Ebola etc.

 

But, I consider the media hype around the Coronavirus / Covid-19 to have reached frenzy and somewhat of a significant over reaction

 

Thailand is the 5th country on the list with 35 cases and no deaths. 

There have been 5 deaths from Covid-19 outside of China. 

 

In China Covid-19 has a 2.58% mortality rate (72,438 cases / 1,868 deaths), that’s 2578 people per 100,000,

 

Outside of China Covid-19 has a 0.56% mortality rate (897 cases / 5 deaths), that’s 557 people per 100,000.

 

Both figures are incredibly high compared to regular seasonal flu which kills 10.6 per 100,000 people in the 50+ age range, 1 in 100,000 in the 5-16 age range, and 2 in 100,000 in the 17-49 age range. 

 

What is not clearly reported with Covid-19 is the mortality age range of those who have died. 

i.e. what does the risk grouping look like for us and our children ?

 

I’d like to know what the Mortality rate is for: 

0-5 year olds

6-16 year olds

17-50 year olds

50-65 year olds

65+ year olds 

 

I imagine the mortality rate to be far higher in 65+ age range than for any other age range and significantly distort the figures. 

Has anyone between the ages of 6-50 even died from this virus?

 

 

 

 

 

 

The man that was arrested for first reporting it was 35.  Children seem not to be affected so far.  It’s also likely Thailand has more than 35 cases, as the information is not allowed to be reported without government approval 

[dcnx]

7 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

  Thanks for the update.  I suspect that others countries will soon begin tightening the screws on flights originating from Thailand (and other virus "hotspots".)  

 

  The inclusion of Thailand on this list demonstrates the legitimacy that the country of Israel assigns to the Thai government's claims of "no problem for us."  

 

  

South Korea issued a warning for their citizens not to travel to Thailand.

 

Singapore just canceled a lot of flights, some of them were to Thailand.

 

[dcnx]

32 minutes ago, Enoon said:

I'm standing in a crowd of 100 infected people, at worst less than 3 of us are going to die from it, big deal.

 

 

 

 

If I were anywhere else in the world I would be shocked by such an ignorant statement.

 

I have to ask, Pattaya?

[samuttodd]

26 minutes ago, dcnx said:

13 you mean

[Sydebolle]

Well, the cultus society of Bangkok will love this ........ 

[ukrules]

6 hours ago, bobbin said:

Yet no deaths. There should be anywhere from 6-8 deaths from this group.

There may well be, you just haven't waited long enough to get your results.

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

  Depends upon how you view the stats.

 

  In China, about 72.000 people have contracted the disease.  Of those 72,000, 14,494 cases have "resolved".  

 

  12,624 have recovered and 1870 have died.  You don't know yet what will happen to the other 58,000 people who still have the virus.

 

  1870/14,494 = a 13% mortality rate of cases that have been resolved, in one way or another.  That's a far cry from your 2.58% or your .56% guess-timations.  

You also have no idea of the real infection rate. I heard something about people with no symptoms not wanting to go to quarantine areas - so they don't, maybe they catch a few of them.

[onebir]

6 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’d like to know what the Mortality rate is for: 

0-5 year olds

6-16 year olds

17-50 year olds

50-65 year olds

65+ year olds

There's some less detailed data on disease severity from a journal article cited in this video (@13"):

Tabulating in an easier to follow format:

                    >65yo         >50yo                all cases

Total cases  :  153            445 (=292+153)   1011

Severe cases:  44             95 (=51+44)       163

SCR*           :  28.7%         21.3%               16.1%

So seriousness definitely increases with age, and presumably mortality too.  Smoking also seems to be a risk (although the guy in the video doesn't appear to understand the p values and fails to understand this).

 

There may well be other tables in the article this came from, if you can track it down.

*Severe Complication Rate (assuming this is how it's defined?)

[onebir]

6 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Once again, Israel shows that they are a little more rational than other -deluded- countries. 

But this is too little, too late, 'quarantine at home' won't work (with Israelis...) and there's no mention of testing for the virus at any point.

 

Given the passenger flows involved, they probably have ample facilities to quarantine everyone, (and deducted the days from annual military service to sweeten the pill a bit). But these are half measures where one case might start an epidemic.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Wuhan hospital director dies from coronavirus

 

Liu Zhiming, director of the Wuchang hospital in Wuhan, died from the novel coronavirus on Tuesday morning, according to the city of Wuhan’s Health Commission. 

Liu was a neurosurgeon and is the first hospital director to die as a result of the coronavirus epidemic which started in the city of Wuhan in late 2019.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-18-20-intl-hnk/h_043a6d18048e2732faa845742f658a2b

So they say.6 medical staff out of 1700 that have contracted the virus have died making the fatality rate about 0.35%.According to the NY Times story in the link.

 

Confronting a viral epidemic with a scant supply of protective equipment, more than 1,700 Chinese medical workers have already been infected, and six have died.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/world/asia/china-coronavirus-doctors.html

[emptypockets]

7 hours ago, bobbin said:

Yes. One of the Chinese whistle-blower Doctors died from contracting this virus at age 34.

That is what we are being told. Would not be surprised if a whistle blower actually died of rapid lead poisoning in China.

[samuttodd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20wNxj8UJDc

 

What if this whole thing is a psy-op designed to impose further centralized control on people. To turn the citizens into subjects.

People who are afraid of catching a terrible illness might be willing to do all kinds of things "for their safety," that theuy would never consider otherwise. To give up certain aspects of their individual decision making and allow it to be done by a "higher authority."

 

As a society gives up its freedoms and allows its decisions to be made by some central scrutinizer, it will become less free and its individuals wil fall under more scrutiny.

 

I still haven't seen examples of Caucasians falling to the illness, and I reckon that China has killed nearly 70 Million of it's people since the 1930's already, what is to keep a society that would do such atrocious things to their own from killing a few more? Especially since they needed to get rid of Dissenters before they deal with Hongkong and Taiwan.

 

I am curious if we'll see the crazy big numbers of victims to this that they have had in China?

People who are afraid of catching a terrible illness might be willing to do all kinds of things "for their safety," that they would never consider otherwise. To give up certain aspects of their individual decision making and allow it to be done by a "higher authority."

[emptypockets]

7 hours ago, bobbin said:

You have made some interesting posts on this subject. In fact, I think it was you that made the point that the quarantined cruise ship in Japan would be an interesting case to watch because it is playing out in full view..

 

Without checking today's update, there are more than 360 confirmed cases aboard. From among approximately 3000+ passengers and crew. So approximately 10% infection rate and perhaps rising.

 

Yet no deaths. There should be anywhere from 6-8 deaths from this group.

 

What do you make of this?  Statistical anomaly?

Perhaps being in close proximity to someone who is infected has more to do with it. Hardly surprising really. I heard the US are sending planes over and are pulling their citizens off the ship asap. The no deaths is probably due to the level and availability of medical care for a relatively small group compared to the high mortality experienced in China, but nowhere else at present. The Chinese health system is likely in extreme overload at the moment.

Edited February 18, 2020 by emptypockets

[emptypockets]

7 hours ago, Tayaout said:

There is now 454 passengers infected:https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

 

You probably won't die overnight from pneumonia and those who recover will likely do so earlier. I'm sure there will be deaths within a month or so but lower mortality rate than for Wuhan because of better care. 

Funnily enough pneumonia used to be known as the old man's friend because they did, in fact, die quietly overnight peacefully in their sleep. That was a long time ago though.

Edited February 18, 2020 by emptypockets

[Thian]

Welcome to the hotel California...

 

Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
"Relax," said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check-out any time you like
But you can never leave!

[Tayaout]

38 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Funnily enough pneumonia used to be known as the old man's friend because they did, in fact, die quietly overnight peacefully in their sleep. That was a long time ago though.

Possible. I'm not a specialist and there os multiple causes of pneumonia. In this case it seems to take about 1 month. I've seen video of intubed patients and it doesn't look like a quick and quiet death. You can hear liquid in their lungs each time they breath. 

[FarFlungFalang]

5 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

But not "incredibly high" when compared "like for like".......SARS mortality was over 9%.

 

This one, as you point out, 2.58% worst case, less than 1% best.

 

I'm standing in a crowd of 100 infected people, at worst less than 3 of us are going to die from it, big deal.

 

 

 

 

Not a big deal for you if it's your wife and two kids that die but others may think it's a big deal. 

[ukrules]

This is still not being reported accurately, check out the following news search results and notice the difference.

 

 

Not a single mention of this in the Thai English language press, I haven't looked at the Thai Language press.

 

The days of self imposed quarantine are over, it's a full on ban right now.

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by ukrules

[samuttodd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi-lAcGeG48&feature=emb_logo&has_verified=1&bpctr=1582076157   @2:24 

Edited February 19, 2020 by samuttodd

[Bangkok Barry]

On 2/18/2020 at 6:40 AM, christophe75 said:

and go to hell with "tourism"... Life and death are more important).

But not as important as saving face. Thailand can't admit to a problem after saying there isn't one. 

[Bangkok Barry]

On 2/18/2020 at 7:19 AM, smedly said:

On 2/18/2020 at 6:34 AM, richard_smith237 said:

But, I consider the media hype around the Coronavirus / Covid-19 to have reached frenzy and somewhat of a significant over reaction

may I suggest a trip to Wuhan and discuss that with the relatives of the dead and critically ill

 

Obviously he was referring to the situation outside of China, where there have been very, very few deaths among 6.4 billion people.

[Bangkok Barry]

On 2/18/2020 at 7:56 AM, TheAppletons said:

  Depends upon how you view the stats.

 

  In China, about 72.000 people have contracted the disease.  Of those 72,000, 14,494 cases have "resolved".  

 

  12,624 have recovered and 1870 have died.  You don't know yet what will happen to the other 58,000 people who still have the virus.

 

  1870/14,494 = a 13% mortality rate of cases that have been resolved, in one way or another.  That's a far cry from your 2.58% or your .56% guess-timations.  

 

We know there's a problem in China. But outside of China, where 6.4 billion of us live?

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Obviously he was referring to the situation outside of China, where there have been very, very few deaths among 6.4 billion people.

Take off the 1.4 billion of Chinese from the 6.4 billion and chances of contracting the virus have increased insignificantly,worried yet?Do we start calling you Isaan Barry now or Not in Bangkok Barry? 

[Bangkok Barry]

14 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

22 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Obviously he was referring to the situation outside of China, where there have been very, very few deaths among 6.4 billion people.

Take off the 1.4 billion of Chinese from the 6.4 billion and chances of contracting the virus have increased insignificantly,worried yet?Do we start calling you Isaan Barry now or Not in Bangkok Barry? 

 

That's 6.4 billion outside of China. I'll leave you to work out what percentage of those 6.4 billion have died. And you can call me whatever you like. I don't know you and you don't know me, so why should I care?