BOT expects 3% economic growth in 2021

[webfact]

BOT expects 3% economic growth in 2021

 

   

BANGKOK(NNT) - The Bank of Thailand has released its latest overview of the Thai economy, which it expects will grow more than 3 percent in 2021. Meanwhile the latest report by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reports 2.4 percent growth in 2019, but has downgraded 2020 GDP growth to only 1.5-2.5 percent.

 

These figures are lower than the previous expectations issued by the Bank of Thailand last December, when it expected 2019 to close with 2.5 percent growth, and foresaw 2020 GDP of 2.8 percent this year.

 

The low performing economy is affected by the drought disaster, delay of the 2020 government budget, and the unexpected outbreak of COVID-19 since late January, which has been an extraordinary development beyond the expectations of any observer.

 

The Bank of Thailand will be adjusting the new economic forecast on 25th March, prior to which it will be monitoring the development and effects of the COVID-19 virus which has had a significant negative impact this year. The bank expects the virus to cause most damage in Q1, before the situation gradually improves later.

 

The bank is confident the Thai economy will swing back and expand at more than 3 percent by 2021, should there be no additional negative factors.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2020-02-19

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[saengd]

What the next two pages of Thai bashers fail to understand is the underlying resilience of the Thai economy and the effect of having two major input streams into the economy, tourism and and exports. And before anyone goes there, the forecast is for 2021, does anyone really think that the virus scare will be an issue that effects tourist numbers by the end of 2021 and/or that tourism will not recover, you'd have to be crazy to take that bet!

[pegman]

No chance. The junta is an ongoing negative financial factor. The high ฿, even before the virus, caused reduced exports and tourism. Add the virus and drought and the Thai economy is likely already in recession territory. I'm pro-Thai but anti-junta. Same same as most Thai people.

[saengd]

14 minutes ago, pegman said:

No chance. The junta is an ongoing negative financial factor. The high ฿, even before the virus, caused reduced exports and tourism. Add the virus and drought and the Thai economy is likely already in recession territory. I'm pro-Thai but anti-junta. Same same as most Thai people.

Don't forget, that estimate is for 2021, the end of which is two years away.

 

Hypothetically... so what if exports didn't recover, at USD 19 bill./month today they are only USD 4 bill under their all time high and now back at 2016 levels, the economy in 2016 was in a very respectable condition.

 

As for the junta: whenever we talk about the economy folks always want to talk about the junta, their dislike of it and the negative impact it has on the economy. Yes of course the economy would function much better if a different government was in power, but even without that we still see GDP increases of 2.5%. The economy doesn't really do politics, it doesn't care that much about the backgrounds of politicians.

 

BTW, if anyone is expecting more than around a 7% drop in the value of THB, over a long period, they are going to be very disappointed. Queue the posters who say it will be 55 to the Pound by Xmas!

Edited February 18, 2020 by saengd

[Airalee]

I pay no attention to COVID-19, the Junta, or tourism figures.

 

I will be watching for the recasts/resets of all the neg-am mortgages taken out from 2016-2018.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Airalee said:

I pay no attention to COVID-19, the Junta, or tourism figures.

 

I will be watching for the recasts/resets of all the neg-am mortgages taken out from 2016-2018.

Funny, as though limited numbers of negative amortization resets will impact balance sheets valued in the billions and trillions of dollars.

[Jimbo2014]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

What the next two pages of Thai bashers fail to understand is the underlying resilience of the Thai economy and the effect of having two major input streams into the economy, tourism and and exports. And before anyone goes there, the forecast is for 2021, does anyone really think that the virus scare will be an issue that effects tourist numbers by the end of 2021 and/or that tourism will not recover, you'd have to be crazy to take that bet!

There are many headwinds against this.  The high baht is a deterrent but when combined with a degrading environment, poor tourism regulation and a growing list of viable  alternatives, there are significant barriers.  The same goes for manufacturing.  I dont doubt that the growing economies of India and China will continue to support Thai tourism numbers but I expect the above factors to grow worse rather than better.  Thailand may not find the Indians to be as accommodating as the Chinese.

[tjo o tjim]

2 hours ago, saengd said:

The economy doesn't really do politics, it doesn't care that much about the backgrounds of politicians.

You forgot one important part to that “...in the short term.”  
 

Policy choices have about a 6-10 year delayed impact window. A little screw up here or there won’t kill you immediately, but repeating them might. The government has fallen behind on many things that needed to be prioritized over the last 5, 10, 15, and even 20 years. This has led to short-term benefits for a few, opportunities for another group, but missed the giant opportunities to make Thailand a better place for the Thai people. 
 

To me, the massive screw-ups on infrastructure are really mind-numbing. They go back much farther than the Junta, but the military is a big part of the problem from the previous coup. 

[TheAppletons]

3 hours ago, saengd said:

What the next two pages of Thai bashers fail to understand is the underlying resilience of the Thai economy and the effect of having two major input streams into the economy, tourism and and exports. 

  That's one input stream.  Tourism is an export.

[saengd]

1 minute ago, TheAppletons said:

  That's one input stream.  Tourism is an export.

Yes OK, I think it conveyed the point to the non-economics minded herd.

[sawadee1947]

Just Clairvoyants

[Redline]

9 hours ago, saengd said:

What the next two pages of Thai bashers fail to understand is the underlying resilience of the Thai economy and the effect of having two major input streams into the economy, tourism and and exports. And before anyone goes there, the forecast is for 2021, does anyone really think that the virus scare will be an issue that effects tourist numbers by the end of 2021 and/or that tourism will not recover, you'd have to be crazy to take that bet!

It’s complete speculation, as we just started 2020 with public shootings, the virus outbreak, the high baht, lowered tourist numbers, political uncertainty, Thai democracy, high air pollution, higher traffic deaths...

 

I wonder

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, Redline said:

It’s complete speculation, as we just started 2020 with public shootings, the virus outbreak, the high baht, lowered tourist numbers, political uncertainty, Thai democracy, high air pollution, higher traffic deaths...

 

I wonder

All forecasts are just that but they are usually based on a fact framework that makes them a little bit more reliable than just a WAG. That said, road traffic deaths and mall shootings are highly unlikely to influence GDP!!!

Edited February 19, 2020 by saengd

[Redline]

21 minutes ago, saengd said:

All forecasts are just that but they are usually based on a fact framework that makes them a little bit more reliable than just a WAG. That said, road traffic deaths and mall shootings are highly unlikely to influence GDP!!!

Tourism is about 12 percent of GDP, so these are likely to have  some impact on tourism-leave linear thinking to Thais 

Edited February 19, 2020 by Redline

[Sydebolle]

Did the Tourism gurus switch jobs and are now with the Board of Trade? 

 

[Soikhaonoiken]

No wonder they call Thailand Lala land, because hoping for a 3% growth by end of 2021 is a fantasy, the Country was on a downward trend way before this virus hit...