No ‘hidden’ virus cases in Thailand, official insists

[Haecksler]

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

It's a real show today.

 

Big increases :

- 20 new cases in South Korea (51 total)
- 10 new cases in Japan (84 total)

 

Those 2 countries along with Singapore are the real acid test.

 

Because more developped than Thailand... And a little more serious about things....

 

Especially Tokyo, because it has exactly the same weather than Wuhan.

And pressure is huge with the Olympic games.

 

Furthermore, but it's just a feeling, japanese like hygiene. And this virus must annoy/disturb them big times (more than the radioactive fumes from Fukushima....)

 

Singapore is tropical. So there is still the idea of weather (warm) that could weaken the virus.

 

-79 news cases on the ship... total 624.. At this stage, the whole thing is just grotesque... Let's say that all the 3700 passengers are infected.

This idea of "quarantine" on a big ship... is just a disaster.

 

Singapore + 3

HK + 1

 

Even... Iran has... 2 cases.

 

But Thailand sou sou... 35. Since 2 days.

 

The thing is... The official is right : "we don't hide new cases".

 

They just do not look for them !

????

 

Classic thai (white) lie.

 

Anyway... In 2 weeks we will know for sure. If the exponential line continues... 

Reasonable post like all your posts concerning that topic.

I found this: https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-who-thailand-situation-report-17-february-2020

Never see this before as this would have answered my main question. This is from the WHO Thailand....

"• The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

I assume that all people without any travel history such as taxi driver, hotels staff, shopping center staff, waitress etc. in a nutshell all those people with closes contact to Chinese tourists are falling right through this screen and might never listed in this statistic nor being tested.

As now travel is in some places 80% down would explain that the numbers of PUI are down.

This is exactly how statistic is working and I repeat it again it depends on how the numbers are gathered.

And this is the more scary part:

"• Health authorities reiterate that the Government continues to plan for the possibility that human-to-human transmission may escalate in the weeks and months ahead, bringing an increase in the number of cases from more areas of the country."

And this is the interesting part:

"• Authorities are registering commercial test kits for COVID-19, to ensure that at least one key hospital per province across Thailand initially has the kits necessary to carry out testing of suspected cases."

How ever I still not panicking as there are some indicators which not show any sign.

One Indicator is the amount of people returning from Thailand and being positive tested. As far as I know this is only 1 case so far.

 

[christophe75]

1 hour ago, Haecksler said:

This is from the WHO Thailand....

"• The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

 

You basically... found the smoking gun !

 

I always believed that a PUI was an individual... with symptoms. Wrong. ???? Too obvious.

 

It's of course preposterous.

 

Especially now.

 

What about the people without ANY travel history... and who get infected ?

 

Because this is exactly what we're seeing in Japan, South Korea, Singapore...

 

"Sorry... not in our definition... Nothing to see there"

 

As usual, we apply administrative reasoning (and with of course a large dose of bad faith) without any real intelligence behind.

 

Small civil "servants", narrow minded, who want to please their superiors and/or who are terrorized by their own shadow.

 

The WHO is a perfect example of this : hail to China (super hard quarantine in the field)... "but please don't stop air traffic with them, that's bad, it could hurt China's feeling".

 

China of course is the epitom of such behavior and mindset.

 

And Thailand too, even if the scale is smaller.

 

As for myself, i look at Israel. They understand deeply the meaning of "existential threats"....

 

And they are not afraid to be ridiculed, and/or to loose a few "tourism dollars"... if the decisions they take to protect their people... eventually will be proven pointless.

 

Meanwhile, thai visitors who arrive in Israel... Will be quarantined 14 days.

Period.

 

It's hard. It hurts the "feelings" of people and the "interets" of some corporations.... but better safe than sorry. Better safe than to "save face while being infected".

 

And again, it's possible that the whole thing is just... vaporware... In a few weeks, it could be over. Israel might be over reacting. Fair enough.

 

Eventually, 2 different mindset :

ASIA

-comedia del arte, face BS, feelings, fragility, school playground reasoning, hysteria, pyramidal slow organization, pathological secrecy

 

ISRAEL

-resolve, strength, no BS attitude, pragmatism, common sense, fast risk assessment, rationality, independance, cluster organization, information shared (because information is key to survival)

 

With a vicious virus, i prefer the latest. ???? 

Edited February 19, 2020 by christophe75

[Oleolf]

Interesting discussion here, as Thailand puts itself at high risk. The low number of reported cases is statistically hard to explain, which was pointed out in this scientific paper some days ago. 

https://t.co/USIMmKRAGc

The paper may not reflect the latest numbers, but its conclusions are still valid. There may be not just rumours....

[ParkerN]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I'm a westerner and naturally a skeptic anyway. I wonder if the Thai public takes these government announcements that the virus isn't spreading here literally. I have no way of knowing either way. Just logic knowing about the masses of Chinese people here during that window period where China didn't even seem to know. 

 

I seriously doubt if the majority of the Thai public even understand what a virus is, much less what threat it represents to them because their government couldn't care less whether they get it or not so long as the Chinese keep coming to buy their street somtam.

 

So long as they have their rice paddy with no water, their carconogenic weed killer that nice Mr Trump keeps wanting them to buy, their communal motosy their 8-year-old kids can ride without  a crash hat, their cigarettes with tobacco that won't sell in the USA so gets dumped in SE Asia and their rotgut whiskey, they'll be happy contemplating their place as no. 1 in the world for everything.

 

8 people under 50 in the village here died in the past 12 months so far, but life is good for those that still draw breath and don't mind living in a shanty town on 250THB per day with chickens and pigs running around fouling up the place.

 

Ignorance is bliss, or so they say. and they all seem happy enough; life goes on as normal (for those who don't die anyway). The liver cancer and diabetes rates are astronomical but never mind eh...? Besides, they can all wander down the wat and find redemption from some monk with his hand out.

 

 

[JohnnyBKK]

With such definition of cases they will never find anyone with the virus. Easy to play with statistics. So yeah they didn't lie, no cases with that exact definition found. Now if they would test everyone with symptoms instead we might have 100x more cases maybe, we will never know.

[Fex Bluse]

11 hours ago, worgeordie said:

Thailand is different......

regards Worgeordie

"Thailan not same same you country na"

[FarFlungFalang]

11 hours ago, trainman34014 said:

Born Liars the lot of them !

Doesn’t everybody lie?

[ParkerN]

20 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Doesn’t everybody lie?

Yes, but some more than others. And better at it. Practice makes perfect. Also, in Thailand, the truth is endlessly variable and worthless unless it's what the other person wants to hear - interpretation is the key. If it is benign, it's OK to tell the truth. If it isn't then a variation upon the theme of truth is what's needed and what gets told. It's like dealing with 9-year-olds.

Edited February 19, 2020 by ParkerN

[sammieuk1]

Sopon's pants then caught fire????

[LomSak27]

After feeling like the worst is over, now I have to be concerned about deliberate misreporting.

 

Not out of the woods yet, sigh.

[boonnoon]

They don't hide, they're in plain unsight!!  ???? ???? 

[Khun Paul]

In Gear Brain Mouth Open Put Before , a group of words that describe yet another Thai Offical whose understanding is limited to fantasy not reality. No wonder they get criticised  . 

[smedly]

So was this ever reported as case No35

 

Nope, sent hope to self isolate waiting for test results - confirms positive by phone and instructed to self isolate - we have no room in hospital  

[cmrichsw]

12 hours ago, Jingthing said:

So where are the central testing centers? 

Is the testing free?

Free for foreigners?

What is the motivation as it seems not so easy to get test for people with mild flu symptoms to get tested?

I think if you walk into a hospital you will be tested. Chiang Mai Ram has closed off all side entrances.

[Guest]

We can only take them at their word? until proven otherwise, yea,

[SkyFax]

42 minutes ago, smedly said:

So was this ever reported as case No35

No.

[tjo o tjim]

12 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

1) With 1.1 million arrivals from China in January, statistically 71 infected Chinese have been walking the street in Thailand. 

2) Did they pass the bug?

Based on the cruise ship infection rate, probably yes.

I am not sure how much I agree with your assessment of (1); half of the people would have arrived would have been when the infection numbers were under ~2,000 people (including asymptotic/incubating infections), and the other half would be of a pool of about 20-30,000.  That gives me a number closer to 12.

 

As for your (2), yes they clearly passed the bug. To what, roughly a dozen Thais. They also likely passed the bug to another 10-12 of their travel companions. Comparing it to the ship though is disingenuous though, vastly different conditions.  
 

I am surprised there aren’t more confirmed cases, but I picture a factor of 2 not 20. If it is down to climate, well, it would make pretty good sense outside Bangkok. 

[FinChin67]

Example of trustworthy government reporting:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/fighting-the-virus-with-openness-and-information

 

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

 

Thailand government could learn a thing or too but I don't think it will ever happen.. Losing face and all that on top of everything.

Edited February 20, 2020 by FinChin67

[sahibji]

there are 10 per cent of the chinese tourists still coming. the risk of the corona virus infection is hence there. it takes only one to infect others. good thing is that screening  is still going on.

[sahibji]

31 minutes ago, SkyFax said:

No.

missed the net?

[sahibji]

35 minutes ago, jewell49 said:

We can only take them at their word? until proven otherwise, yea,

best to take all possible precautions and hope that all goes well.

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Sopon insisted that all the details being shared were true. 

The details from Phuket health minister was that Bangkok had told them "not to share information" that's the problem.
If everything is ok then withhold what?

Look south to Singapore and see what a real government does... and how it handles things!

 

[klauskunkel]

Quote

No ‘hidden’ virus cases in Thailand, official insists

there is no "jing jing" at the end of his statement, how can I believe it?

[geriatrickid]

13 hours ago, Jingthing said:

So where are the central testing centers? 

Is the testing free?

Free for foreigners?

What is the motivation as it seems not so easy to get test for people with mild flu symptoms to get tested?

The central testing centers are Bangkok centric, for the simple reason that the equipment and qualified personnel are not available in the outlying regions.

No, unless you are covered under Thai public health program.

I believe that  Farangs will be charged for medical tests just as they are on any other day.

IMO, there is no motivation to quantify the   number of cases, for the simple reason that thailand is not capable of handling the thousands that could occur.

 

 

13 hours ago, Yinn said:

Jingthing, no need panic.

you lucky you live in thailand. We prepared and nobody die in Thailand from corona. 

Your incessant posting of the  inaccurate and false pictogram insults everyone's intelligence. I have already explained why the chart  has no relevance. In looking at it again it becomes more of a joke since Germany, France  and Israel which have three of the world's most advanced health care systems are ignored.  Israel (and the USA) were pioneers in the  drugs now being used to alleviate some of the Covid 19 symptoms. Israel is also equipped for for defense against biological weapons  and is one of the few countries  with health personnel trained and drilled in the event of a deadly infectious agent and yet  no mention while Thailand with its reliance on primitive wards  is listed. Yea, no. Not in a million years.

 

12 hours ago, Jingthing said:

That is my take. To find cases you need to aggressively promote testing and fully organize the national reporting protocols. Have they done that? I don't speak Thai so you tell me. 

The aggressive testing  consists of the following approach to at risk persons such as visitors from known regions of disease;

1. Dr Thanarak Plipat, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Disease Control, said all travellers from the listed countries will be checked for fever with thermo-scan machines. Those with high fever or respiratory problems will be sent to test for COVID-19. 

2. The initial screening test for a person from 1 is a chest xray. If clear, then patient is typically considered ok. Depending on location and  additional screening, PUI may be sent for a specimen test.

3. Thailand is also relying on self  screening through use of a questionnaire.

https://cmsdm.net/Self-Screening/

 

 

 

 

[TheAppletons]

7 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

 

Look south to Singapore and see what a real government does... and how it handles things!

 

 

  After that, gaze over at Japan and see another incompetent government response.  Allowing the non-evacuated cruise ship passengers to wander around unsupervised for a couple of weeks is insane.  

[liddelljohn]

I have been reading up on the COVID 19 virus and  in WUHAN and on the Cruise  ship in Japan  it seems that people can have 5 NEGATIVE tests  and then still prove positive for the virus   ,,its not a normal situation at all, there are lots of confusion even amongst  the doctor, epedemiologists  and experts about this new  virus   and its spread , diagnosis , tests and treatment .

 

Im due to travel to UK in 8 days  so that should be interesting  The Thais have cleared me to travel ????, but what happens when I get to Gatwick ?????? I will declare my  situation and be willing to undergo tests .

[Guderian]

Now where did I put my tee-shirt with the slogan, "The government has everything 100% under control"?

[christophe75]

We have a "lift off" in South Korea : +51 cases... in 24 hours (total 82) !

 

How ? Why ?

 

Actually it's simple, so simple.

 

"South Korea said Monday [3 february] that it will start testing everyone that shows symptoms of novel coronavirus, regardless of whether they have visited China recently, as the country braces for further spread of the fatal virus"

 

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200203004300320

 

Suprising, isn't it ? ???? What a coincidence !

 

In other words : if you look for the virus... you find it. Exactly like the "hell ship" in Japan !

 

And regarding Thailand, someone here found the definition of a PUI : "The Ministry has added to its definition of a Person Under Investigation (PUI) for COVID-19 infection, by including anybody who presents with fever and symptoms and with travel history to Japan and Singapore (in addition to mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taipei and environs) within 14 days prior to the onset of illness."

 

In other words : no travel ? No test. Sorry honey. Step aside please. Go back home. Here is a paracetamol pill. Do not forget to eat your som tam before sleep and say a few prayers.

 

The clock is ticking... The country needs to stop xxxing around. And do the right thing. Stop bull<deleted>ing the peasants (us) and start to work seriously.

Edited February 20, 2020 by christophe75

[phkauf]

I call bullsh!t on their claims of tough scrutiny of people arriving from affected countries. I came back from one of these countries (not China) on Tuesday and there was NO, ZERO, NADA additional screening of people coming off the flight. There was no questions asked at immigration about my health or travels or if I even encountered anyone sick. For F's sake they didn't even use those stupid thermometer guns. Just a table of cute nurses sitting around looking cute - they could have been hired Pretties for all I know. 

Contrast this to when I entered the other country - asked about my travels at check-in, signed a form affirming what I said under severe financial penalty, upon arrival met with SERIOUS medical professionals who took temperatures, again questioned travel and health. Finally at immigration questioned again about my recent travel (foreigners are prohibited from using the auto-channel at this time).

This is how a responsible government acts to protect its residents. Not like the clown show the Thais put on every day.

[justin case]

they just stopped counting, that solves the problem

 

any problem