No ‘hidden’ virus cases in Thailand, official insists

[dallen52]

No ‘hidden’ virus cases in Thailand, official insists.

 

And no prostitution in Pattaya...

nod nod, wink wink.

[SuperTed]

People panic in pandemics. Even doctors and nurses, and Thais post their lives on FB.

 

If people were dying in remote hospitals (unlikely as Chinese tourists go to the "Golden Spots") there would be a run on masks and hand gel in Thailand, because word always gets out. It's not happening. The guy with a wife in the health ministry would have already left the country if the pandemic was here.

 

There are not CoVID patients hidden in the major hospitals. The health ministry and security are present in most big hospitals monitoring for cases. Thailand has the tests for CoVID (although not all high-risk cities have test facilities, e.g. PTY PKT) although there is a global problem in that testing takes 48 hours.

 

But look at the stats on Wikipedia, which are updated by Thai government. They are processing huge numbers of cases.

 

We have to accept from the statistics, the facts, that there is a reason the virus is not taking hold here. It is most likely heat humidity sunlight and hygiene that make the difference.

 

It's also clear that if you are in a heavily air conditioned, densely populated, hard surface environment (think wet market, cruise ship, hotel buffet), the risk of infection greatly increases. Those are the facts.

 

Someday we will know if the virus attacks certain gene profiles (ethnicities) over others. We will see.

[christophe75]

54 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

An 87 year old man and an 84 year old woman both with previous underlying health conditions.

Reports also of "sloppy" precautions against contamination, that the crew were not in isolation and moved around the ship and entered passengers cabins.

 

Helps to provide the fuller details and not try to sensationalise.

 

I do not sensationalize. I "rationalize".

 

I was asking in another thread... what those "28 seriously cases" (as of today) would become tomorrow and in 1 week. This news is the begining of an answer.

 

As for the disastrous "experiment" the Japanese made on this ship : yes it starts to come out.

 

But overall, what matters is this fact : this virus... is not joke. It's highly contagious and, we need to repeat it again, it kills.

 

Oh yeah sure it's likely that it kills faster old people full of "preconditions".

 

But it kills as well individual... 34 years old for instance (you remember the doctor whistleblower in Wuhan hospital) ?... He fought 1 month... And the virus eventually killed him. And because of his symbolic and political position, you can be sure that the staff gave him the BEST CARE possible... After he died, the doctors were so "panicked" that they made on him CPR during 3 hours... breaking all his torso bones.

[Traubert]

14 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

Hmmm. TVF  seems  susceptible  to a different  sort  of  infection !

Yeah. The lack of bad news is killing them slowly but sure as any pandemic. ????

[Sonhia]

What ever!

 

 

 

 

[mngmn]

11 hours ago, Oleolf said:

Interesting discussion here, as Thailand puts itself at high risk. The low number of reported cases is statistically hard to explain, which was pointed out in this scientific paper some days ago. 

https://t.co/USIMmKRAGc

The paper may not reflect the latest numbers, but its conclusions are still valid. There may be not just rumours....

Will end up being vilified by the global community if their lies are facilitating the spread of the virus and will surely lead to social unrest inside Thailand.

 

Can't they see that?

[SkyFax]

14 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Yeah. The lack of bad news is killing them slowly but sure as any pandemic. ????

Nah -- if there isn't any bad news, they just revert into what if there was bad news-mode.

[natway09]

But "can I be trusted ?"

[sawadee1947]

Doesn't he looks like Pinocchio a bit? ????

[sawadee1947]

8 minutes ago, natway09 said:

But "can I be trusted ?"

Sure you can..... as Thailand is a hub of safety????

[Antifreeze]

17 hours ago, christophe75 said:

It's a real show today.

 

Big increases :

- 20 new cases in South Korea (51 total)
- 10 new cases in Japan (84 total)

 

Those 2 countries along with Singapore are the real acid test.

 

Because more developped than Thailand... And a little more serious about things....

 

Especially Tokyo, because it has exactly the same weather than Wuhan.

And pressure is huge with the Olympic games.

 

Furthermore, but it's just a feeling, japanese like hygiene. And this virus must annoy/disturb them big times (more than the radioactive fumes from Fukushima....)

 

Singapore is tropical. So there is still the idea of weather (warm) that could weaken the virus.

 

-79 news cases on the ship... total 624.. At this stage, the whole thing is just grotesque... Let's say that all the 3700 passengers are infected.

This idea of "quarantine" on a big ship... is just a disaster.

 

Singapore + 3

HK + 1

 

Even... Iran has... 2 cases.

 

But Thailand sou sou... 35. Since 2 days.

 

The thing is... The official is right : "we don't hide new cases".

 

They just do not look for them !

????

 

Classic thai (white) lie.

 

Anyway... In 2 weeks we will know for sure. If the exponential line continues... 

Yep, with the food festival going on in Phuket town we should have a good idea if Thais are immune. 

[Pedrogaz]

How could anyone possibly doubt what this official is saying. The government have such a wonderful record of enforcing plans in crises, like for example the 2.5 pollution issue?

Farmers with no insurance are still burning their crops and causing huge clouds of dark smoke.....but when we call the police about it, they say they already know, and how can they put out the fire after it has started? Perfectly in harmony with the do-nothing culture of the government.

I for one, believe that the government will appoint a sub-committee to the sub-committee on crises, who ill recommend a course of action not to be implemented or enforced, but providing many opportunities for PR to make it appear that they are in control.

I would trust this official or government to run a lemonade stand in my garden.

[johnnyxfingers]

How in the world would he or anyone know.

Edited February 20, 2020 by johnnyxfingers

[Yinn]

5 hours ago, sharecropper said:

Your Thai-centric ignorance is staggering (or blissful if you are conditioned to it, I suppose), as is your naivety in the steps your government has taken.

 

If the link is removed, google: "CNN No US coronavirus cases were caught by airport temperature checks"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-airport-temperature-checks/index.html

 

 

The statistic show I not need panic.

under 30, female, not sick other thing, in Thailand. 

More chance die snake bite, car accident, electric shock, flu, fall over.

 

If you elderly man I understand if you worry. 

 

I not like Anutin, but if say he angry, flew of the handle etc is a false narrative. 

He DID fly of the handle when the idiot refused to wear a face mask. It was stupid. 

 

Thai-centric arrogance? Or because not a worry snowflake? 

No need be racist na. Other farang on this thread think same me. 

Over reaction. Media. 

Look how many thread coronavirus on TVF. More than 20. Massacre kill shoot 57 people= 4 threads.

 

 

[colinneil]

4 minutes ago, Yinn said:

 

 

I not like Anutin, but if say he angry, flew of the handle etc is a false narrative. 

He DID fly of the handle when the idiot refused to wear a face mask. It was stupid. 

 

Thai-centric arrogance? Or because not a worry snowflake? 

No need be racist na. Other farang on this thread think same me. 

Over reaction. Media. 

 

 

 

Wrong.... Always you say the farang is the idiot, no Anutin was the idiot, handing out contaminated masks with his dirty hands.

[snatur]

20 hours ago, JustAnotherHun said:

I deeply trust any statements and statistics given by the honorable Thai government or the TAT. Thais never lie, ai farang!

Uhh... if this statement is not from a Thai.... then only from a drugged guy!

[Yinn]

5 minutes ago, colinneil said:

Wrong.... Always you say the farang is the idiot, no Anutin was the idiot, handing out contaminated masks with his dirty hands.

I say they both idiots. Some thai idiot, some farang idiot. 

Not a racism subject. 

You make the story Anutin “contaminated hands” 5555555

 

i just say Anutin was not angry, fly of the handle. Show the video. But because many farang hate him everybody fly of the handle with Yinn. 

Again. 

Say the truth. Show the link.

 

You never answer my question. 320km away? Or not?????

 

i understand you worry about coronavirus, you high risk group. Up to you.

I really not worry about it. Up to me.

[saengd]

You all can believe what you want to on this point but for me personally there are some very reassuring aspects which give me comfort that Thailand is onboard with all of this:

 

- the number of cases is in line with neighboring countries.

- the WHO regards preparedness in Thailand very highly.

- the population here is not massed in the same way that the population in Wuhan was at the outset, it is more spread thus the rate and likelihood of spread is liable to be much lower.

- the population started taking positive steps very early on, as evidenced by masks and gel being sold out.

- first hand experience is that hospitals are well prepared here.

 

But those posters telling us the government is lying is par for the course, those same posters always tell us the government lies about every thing including the value of the Baht, tourist numbers, GDP, FDI, you name it, they lie! Sad really.

 

 

[transam]

32 minutes ago, Yinn said:

I say they both idiots. Some thai idiot, some farang idiot. 

Not a racism subject. 

You make the story Anutin “contaminated hands” 5555555

 

i just say Anutin was not angry, fly of the handle. Show the video. But because many farang hate him everybody fly of the handle with Yinn. 

Again. 

Say the truth. Show the link.

 

You never answer my question. 320km away? Or not?????

 

i understand you worry about coronavirus, you high risk group. Up to you.

I really not worry about it. Up to me.

Yet YOU are so sure about  farang male menopause.........????

[JustAnotherHun]

How much are pink glasses right now?

[Dalewhatdale]

As usual, a lot of armchair virologists and epidemiologists weighing in, despite not knowing their elbow from their backsides in this kind of issues.

 

Me, I’m just a molecular geneticist, so not an expert in these particular fields. I’ll admit I too am quite surprised/skeptical about the low number of cases confirmed in Thailand so far (and let’s not even mention Indonesia!). The well-known cultural reluctance to face facts and discuss them openly in this part of the world doesn’t help in this sense.

 

However, a lot of the things being said in these threads have absolutely no grounds, other than the above-mentioned general skepticism if not outright distrust.

 

The algorithm for prevention, diagnosis and treatment of possible COVID-19 cases in Thailand is published on the MOPH website. If anything, it’s robust and well though-out:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

Notably, contrary to what some have wrongly stated on this thread and others, suspect cases with even mild respiratory symptoms but whose jobs put them in contact with tourists from countries with ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks are supposed to be put in isolation to be treated and lab-tested to confirm infection by SARS-CoV-2 (or 2019-nCoV, or whatever name they’re giving the virus now; it’s farcical it’s taking the scientific community so long to agree on a name for this motherf…).

 

Because current lab tests for the virus are known to result in a high percentage of false negatives, suspect cases who are tested negative at the local lab are supposed to undergo a second test at the national reference lab if serious clinical symptoms develop or persist.

 

As for patients who have tested positive first, but have improved, they are required to have two negative tests from two different labs (local and reference) within 48 hours before being discharged. Again, really robust and according to international guidelines, unless I’m missing something.

 

I repeatedly wrote “supposed” because who knows how consistently these guidelines are being followed on a national scale. But the same can be said for any clinical algorithm for any disease in any country, really.

 

At any rate, the guidelines are clear and robust, and, while I share some skepticism at the low number of cases confirmed, the people in charge at the public health and clinical level seem to know what they’re doing.

 

I don’t know if the situation is more serious than we’re being told, or whether this thing will spike or peter out in the next few weeks in Thailand. But neither do all of those commenting here, even the very few (I’m guessing) who may have some relevant professional training.

 

If any epidemiologist or physician here thinks otherwise, please do share your concerns so we can all know what’s what. Otherwise, I suggest people do their best to educate themselves on the situation and stop spreading nonsense like it's well-established facts.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Dalewhatdale

[JulesMad]

If it is 'hidden', how would you ever know?!?

[Lipoman]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/topics/wuhan-virus?cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

This chart has Worldwide numerical info on the Coronavirus. 

Accept it or Reject it; up to you. 

[saengd]

7 minutes ago, Lipoman said:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/topics/wuhan-virus?cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

This chart has Worldwide numerical info on the Coronavirus. 

Accept it or Reject it; up to you. 

That's just a rehash of the WHO's daily situation report found here, same data: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_6

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, Lipoman said:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/topics/wuhan-virus?cid=h3_referral_inarticlelinks_24082018_cna

 

This chart has Worldwide numerical info on the Coronavirus. 

Accept it or Reject it; up to you. 

Interesting,2 deaths from both the cruise ship and Iran.Iran only has 5 confirmed cases and 2 fatalities and the cruise ship has 2 fatalities out of 623 confirmed cases.

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, SuperTed said:

there would be a run on masks and hand gel

There was a run on masks and hand sanitiser weeks ago - good luck finding any!

 

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, saengd said:

That's just a rehash of the WHO's daily situation report found here, same data: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_6

I noticed the list in the link you provided seems to be a bit behind (maybe in a different time zone) with no mention of Iran with 5 confirmed cases and 2 fatalities and 2 fatalities on the cruise ship.I normally use the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ site which correlates with list Lipoman posted a link to.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I noticed the list in the link you provided seems to be a bit behind (maybe in a different time zone) with no mention of Iran with 5 confirmed cases and 2 fatalities and 2 fatalities on the cruise ship.I normally use the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ site which correlates with list Lipoman posted a link to.

Yes, it's a time zone thing from here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

The statistic show I not need panic.

under 30, female, not sick other thing, in Thailand. 

More chance die snake bite, car accident, electric shock, flu, fall over.

No worries, you can still die of all those things, the new virus hasn't replaced anything, it's an added bonus to the things that are trying to kill you. Chances are 100% you won't make it our alive from this world. Well, maybe 99.99999% if you manage to fly into Mars before dying.

[DrTuner]

58 minutes ago, Dalewhatdale said:

The algorithm for prevention, diagnosis and treatment of possible COVID-19 cases in Thailand is published on the MOPH website. If anything, it’s robust and well though-out:

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

Thanks for that. The first part of the algo:

 

Quote

1) Patient with fever ≥37.5 °C with any of the following respiratory symptoms (cough, runny nose, sore throat, tachypnea, or shortness of breath, or difficult breathing) and within 14 days prior to symptom onset patient: a. Has recently returned from or lived in the area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19 (China) or; b. Work or has occupation that close contact with tourists from the area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19 or; c. History of close contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 infection

 That little and there excludes many, many Thais that exhibit symptoms from being added as PUIs. Especially since 'area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19' won't grow, because the diagnosis pipeline seems to be plugged.

 

There's also an interesting tell-tale:

Quote

Positive for COVID-19 1) Patient is admitted in single isolation room or cohort ward (designated specifically for confirmed case of COVID-19 infection) with at least 1-meter distance between the beds

 

So how many are there now in isolation and how many confirmed+recovered? If there's a discrepancy in those numbers, it means that positive has been detected, but it's not reflected in the official number because it hasn't been verified by two reference labs.

 

So many ways to "beautify" the stats.

Edited February 20, 2020 by DrTuner