No ‘hidden’ virus cases in Thailand, official insists

[gonesouth]

if you in bed with the devil you are not going to tell on him are you... who is thai in bed with....you can talk about all the numbers and say this and say that ....the truth cost money....ask your self one thing...has thailand ever told the truth about thailand  ... land of smiles is not to be friendly is to mislead you in what they think........ no one will who is at risk...will know the  .....   TRUTH....

[FarFlungFalang]

If Iran has had 2 fatalities shouldn't they have a similar infection number as the cruise ship? 

 

[christophe75]

2 hours ago, Yinn said:

Over reaction. Media. 

Look how many thread coronavirus on TVF. More than 20. Massacre kill shoot 57 people= 4 threads.

 

 

 

Archetype of false thinking, false comparison, and cognitive bias... You're a textbook.

 

Massacre kill shoot ? It's tragic. Sure.

 

But it has not effect, and won't have any effect, zero, nada on the economy, on the world, on politics, nor the health of people.

 

So it's perfectly rational to speak much more about a pandemic, and about a  new virus... compared to a very local event, eventhough this latest is indeed tragic and created in Thailand a lot of emotions.

 

If you're overwhelmed with emotions with this, how you will react if we face a "spanish flu" scenario ?

 

Like the world faced in 1918/1919 ?

 

I'm not even speaking about something worse (and the Wufuflu virus could be worse, with some weird traits [very long incubation, and reinfection]).

 

You suffer from anxiety and your only defense is the normalcy bias ?

 

I understand. And you're not the only one ! But what you write is just pointless.

 

And eventually won't help you.

[metisdead]

A post using a graph from an unattributed site has been removed. Please include a link to the source of information when posting. 

[Tayaout]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Interesting,2 deaths from both the cruise ship and Iran.Iran only has 5 confirmed cases and 2 fatalities and the cruise ship has 2 fatalities out of 623 confirmed cases.

It's called standard deviation. It's difficult to get the real percentage with a small sample size.

 

I suspect Iran may have tried to coverup like China otherwise why would they now put the city under martial law for such a small number? 

[Tony125]

China sees drop in new virus cases, two Japan cruise passengers die

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-sees-drop-in-new-virus-cases-two-japan-cruise-passengers-die/ar-BB10bfBc?li=BBnb7Kz

[Sunderland]

10 hours ago, SuperTed said:

People panic in pandemics. Even doctors and nurses, and Thais post their lives on FB.

 

If people were dying in remote hospitals (unlikely as Chinese tourists go to the "Golden Spots") there would be a run on masks and hand gel in Thailand, because word always gets out. It's not happening. The guy with a wife in the health ministry would have already left the country if the pandemic was here.

 

There are not CoVID patients hidden in the major hospitals. The health ministry and security are present in most big hospitals monitoring for cases. Thailand has the tests for CoVID (although not all high-risk cities have test facilities, e.g. PTY PKT) although there is a global problem in that testing takes 48 hours.

 

But look at the stats on Wikipedia, which are updated by Thai government. They are processing huge numbers of cases.

 

We have to accept from the statistics, the facts, that there is a reason the virus is not taking hold here. It is most likely heat humidity sunlight and hygiene that make the difference.

 

It's also clear that if you are in a heavily air conditioned, densely populated, hard surface environment (think wet market, cruise ship, hotel buffet), the risk of infection greatly increases. Those are the facts.

 

Someday we will know if the virus attacks certain gene profiles (ethnicities) over others. We will see.

Why do we have to accept from the statistics that humidity, heat and sunlight are big factors?

 

This is a highly contagious virus and  disease. More so than H1N1 in 2009. Look at the pandemic tables in 2009 for Thailand on Wikipedia. If heat, sunlight and humidity were such big factors then the virus would not have affected thousands of people and killed several hundred people in Thailand.

 

Heat, humidity and sunlight do not stop viruses taking hold. There would be no viruses in much of Africa and tropical Latin America if that were the case.

 

A 9% increase in cases in Thailand since 8 February clearly highlights either a cover-up or just as likely a poor method of searching for the cases that are undoubtedly out there.

 

In 3-4 weeks we will see something unfold beyond the control of the muppets in charge at the moment.

 

What I have noticed in recent days at the press conferences is a better line of questioning from the media and an increasing amount of discomfort among those providing the information and answers.

 

The silly smirks, pointless photo shoots with masks on - but mostly off - and constantly advising people to wash their hands bear all the usual signs of people who will soon be way out of their depth. The usual government announcements full of big words and ideas without follow-up are mostly fluff.

 

When containment is finally replaced with mitigation we will quickly find out just how poorly governed the country is. 

 

 

Not a great time to be here when it does eventually happen.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Sunderland

[Dalewhatdale]

22 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Thanks for that. The first part of the algo:

 

 That little and there excludes many, many Thais that exhibit symptoms from being added as PUIs. Especially since 'area affected by the outbreaks of COVID-19' won't grow, because the diagnosis pipeline seems to be plugged.

 

There's also an interesting tell-tale:

 

So how many are there now in isolation and how many confirmed+recovered? If there's a discrepancy in those numbers, it means that positive has been detected, but it's not reflected in the official number because it hasn't been verified by two reference labs.

 

So many ways to "beautify" the stats.

I don't think it would make sense to treat all patients exhibiting those mild symptoms as PUIs, since, in the absence of sustained transmission of the virus in Thailand (that we know of), they'd be much more likely to have a common cold or the flu. Hence the criteria regarding travel history, job in the tourism industry, etc.

 

As for the isolation numbers, they currently report 16 in isolation and 19 confirmed and recovered, plus 82 patients "who are receiving treatment at hospitals", which according to the algorithm would be PUIs who tested negative and therefore were not put into isolation, but still have at least some mild symptoms and fulfill one of the three criteria set out in the first step of the screening procedure (travel history to China, etc).

 

The infographic with the stats in English can be found here, but it hasn't been updated since February 18:

 

 

They are up-to-date in Thai, though:

 

 

I haven't really looked at them closely, but the numbers seem to add up, at first glance.

Edited February 21, 2020 by Dalewhatdale

[uhuh]

On 2/20/2020 at 12:32 PM, SuperTed said:

 

If people were dying in remote hospitals (unlikely as Chinese tourists go to the "Golden Spots") there would be a run on masks and hand gel in Thailand

Masks and gel are sold out everywhere in Bangkok. 

A few places sometimes have some and ration them,  like "one mask per person"

 

 

[ParkerN]

On 2/20/2020 at 10:49 PM, Sunderland said:

In 3-4 weeks we will see something unfold beyond the control of the muppets in charge at the moment.

Yes. I fear so too.

Edited February 21, 2020 by ParkerN

[SkyFax]

1 hour ago, ParkerN said:

On 2/20/2020 at 10:49 PM, Sunderland said:

In 3-4 weeks we will see something unfold beyond the control of the muppets in charge at the moment.

Yes. I fear so too.

Well DrTuner said FEB14 he's betting that panic spreading and ICU overrun will occur in 2-3 weeks so that's 1-2 weeks from now. You guys have 3-4 weeks covered. 

Who's taking 5-6 weeks and 7-8 weeks?

[macgver]

From other news online wrote;

 

The contingency plan for an uncontrollable spread of the virus was approved by the Cabinet during its Tuesday’s meeting, according to the source. The plan was drafted in case the infection rate reaches as high as 1,000 cases per day and results in deaths, a scenario named by the officials as “Phase 3.”

 

If it is under control, why need to plan as high as 1,000 cases per day? Confused.

 

 

[tonray]

On 2/19/2020 at 7:20 PM, Jingthing said:

Is the testing free?

Free for foreigners?

Those on O-A visas can use their $40,000 baht outpatient coverage

[christophe75]

I guess South Korea and Italy (and Iran)... should put at rest wishfull thinking, "just the flu" motto, the "there is no hidden cases" sect, and the thousands "normalcy bias" happy clappers.

 

A man 77 years old died in Italy. He was in hospital since 10 days. Severe pneumonia.

 

No one thought to test him. Of course. Italy. No China trip. Incompetent zealot bureaucrats, comedia del arte authorities... Here is the result.

 

It rings a bell ? Yes. It describes Thailand perfectly as well.

 

The Wuwuflu killed him.

 

And the best part : for 10 days this man shared his virus with... everyone around : patients, doctors, nurses.

 

Bottom line : you can not find the virus if you do not look for it.

 

The cruise "hell" ship was a floating proof of this... very complex idea.... Same for South Korea.

 

USA ? The Land of the Free ? Super Mega Power ? Only 6 cities can tests themselves... 6 cities. All the other "mai ru", "should we call the CDC ?", "what's for diner tonight ?" and (florida) "sorry folks we do have some data.. but we can not tell you because... hum... there is article 2863763FUC alinea 1 that protects privacy of LGBT people and medical records. So fXXXX off".

 

It's the same coverup multiplied by stupidity, spinelessness, fear and inane bureaucracy.

 

Basically : Wuwuflu is everywhere.

 

It is a pandemic, by definition. But WHO won't say it yet. Too afraid to loose their job and their pension.

 

"Monsieur le bourreau 5 minutes de plus s'il vous plait" (mister executioner, 5 more minutes please).

 

As for Thailand, after almost 2 months of "mental aids" and school playground communication.... at last... they start to say that perhaps, yes indeed, we should have a closer look a people with "normal" pneumonia in areas where chinese tourists went...

 

What a bunch of lazy clowns.

 

You want a 20 THB bet ? In the next few days, the number of "cases" will start to rise.

 

My brain hurts with such a powerfull and deep inference. ???? 

 

Last but not least, because of course we might be wrong (the virus is not everywhere... and of course it won't kill everyone eventually)... the virus won't be our biggest problem...

 

The collapse of the world globalized economy will.

 

And this... this is now well underway, and there is nothing we can do about it.

 

No easy cure. No miracle vaccine. No quarantine. No cover ups possible. No "Prayuth-everything-is-under-control" speeches.

 

To summarize : the party is -almost- over.

 

The music is about to stop.

 

Welcome to the Great Global Impoverishment.

 

We will survive. But airplanes, iPhone, tourism, South korea K pop, global trade... that's over.

 

And for once, a positive message, Thailand has very good cards to play and will be able to get through (because many farmers, because food is so easy to grow here).

 

As for Europe, USA etc... That's going to hurt. A lot.

 

It's 8 AM, it just came on the "wire" :

 

"South Korea reports 142 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 346"

 

Santé. Cheers.

Edited February 22, 2020 by christophe75

[TheAppletons]

23 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

The collapse of the world globalized economy will.

 

And this... this is now well underway, and there is nothing we can do about it.

 

No easy cure. No miracle vaccine. No quarantine. No cover ups possible. No "Prayuth-everything-is-under-control" speeches.

 

To summarize : the party is -almost- over.

 

The music is about to stop.

 

Welcome to the Great Global Impoverishment.

 

We will survive. But airplanes, iPhone, tourism, South korea K pop, global trade... that's over.

 

And for once, a positive message, Thailand has very good cards to play and will be able to get through (because many farmers, because food is so easy to grow here).

 

As for Europe, USA etc... That's going to hurt. A lot.

 

It's 8 AM, it just came on the "wire" :

 

"South Korea reports 142 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 346"

 

Santé. Cheers.

  Would it be accurate to say that you don't get invited to a lot of parties?

[MikeyScars]

Thailand expands virus detection

Source from Bangkok Post.  

Search it on Google. 

 

"The expanded approach resulted in the number of PuI rising by 99 on Thursday alone to 1,151 since early last month."

Edited February 22, 2020 by MikeyScars

[TheAppletons]

Forum rules don't allow you to link to the Bangkok Post.  Weird but true.

[MikeyScars]

1 minute ago, TheAppletons said:

Forum rules don't allow you to link to the Bangkok Post.  Weird but true.

Thanks, I took it out.  

 

[Sonhia]

Do the same so called screenings, occure at those out of the way land border crossings where I've personally witnessed many individuals freely crossing the border with no need of producing identity papers...

 

The way inwhich the virus spreads is still unclear to many world leading professionals, I know who's words I would rather trust.

Edited February 22, 2020 by Sonhia
Edit

[Tayaout]

37 minutes ago, Sonhia said:

Do the same so called screenings, occure at those out of the way land border crossings where I've personally witnessed many individuals freely crossing the border with no need of producing identity papers...

 

The way inwhich the virus spreads is still unclear to many world leading professionals, I know who's words I would rather trust.

I went to Myanmar last week. I was screened by Myanmar via temperature check and asking to declare if I went to China in the last month. On my way back to Thailand: nothing. 

[Dutyfirst]

On 2/20/2020 at 10:49 PM, Sunderland said:

Why do we have to accept from the statistics that humidity, heat and sunlight are big factors?

 

This is a highly contagious virus and  disease. More so than H1N1 in 2009. Look at the pandemic tables in 2009 for Thailand on Wikipedia. If heat, sunlight and humidity were such big factors then the virus would not have affected thousands of people and killed several hundred people in Thailand.

 

Heat, humidity and sunlight do not stop viruses taking hold. There would be no viruses in much of Africa and tropical Latin America if that were the case.

 

A 9% increase in cases in Thailand since 8 February clearly highlights either a cover-up or just as likely a poor method of searching for the cases that are undoubtedly out there.

 

In 3-4 weeks we will see something unfold beyond the control of the muppets in charge at the moment.

 

What I have noticed in recent days at the press conferences is a better line of questioning from the media and an increasing amount of discomfort among those providing the information and answers.

 

The silly smirks, pointless photo shoots with masks on - but mostly off - and constantly advising people to wash their hands bear all the usual signs of people who will soon be way out of their depth. The usual government announcements full of big words and ideas without follow-up are mostly fluff.

 

When containment is finally replaced with mitigation we will quickly find out just how poorly governed the country is. 

 

 

Not a great time to be here when it does eventually happen.

H1n1 isnt a coronavirus so you cant compare apples to oranges. There have been previous indepth studies that show how humidity and heat affect the ability for coronaviruses to survive outside of the body hense lowering infection rates. You can google these peer reviewed studies. 

[DrTuner]

48 minutes ago, simtemple said:

True Coronavirus mortality rate at Wuhan Hospital is not running at 2%, 11% or even 15%. It's actally a whopping 50%.

That would make sense, since at this point Wuhan hospitals are utterly overwhelmed and would only accept the most critical cases.

[3NUMBAS]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-asymptomatic-wuhan-woman-shows-102000328.html

 

Coronavirus: asymptomatic Wuhan woman shows why outbreak 'will be hard to stop'

 

look bad for ages to come

[Sunderland]

Iran, Italy and South Korea are good indicators of where there is heading almost everywhere without huge intervention. All air traffic should have been stopped a month ago, but it wasn't and it won't be. It's already too late. However, drastic measures like that taken by China can mitigate the inevitable surge of the virus in some countries. At least give some countries time to prepare as best they can for a flood of hospital admissions. 

 

I don't know exactly when we will see the surge of cases in Thailand, but it will come soon. Perhaps the government is too afraid to test ALL the pneumonia cases in the country because deep down they know that the virus is already here. 

Be prepared. Have a plan. 

[Rhys]

On 2/19/2020 at 7:51 PM, JustAnotherHun said:

I deeply trust any statements and statistics given by the honorable Thai government or the TAT. Thais never lie, ai farang!

... sadly the WHO  gave rise to WHO Cares... MONEY

Edited February 22, 2020 by Rhys

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, Sunderland said:

However, drastic measures like that taken by China can mitigate the inevitable surge of the virus in some countries.

China spent nearly 2 months trying to cover up the virus. Only when it was impossible to cover up did they start instituting measures.

 

China is the cause of this.

[metisdead]

A post with a link to an unapproved YouTube site has been removed as well as the reply. 

[Skallywag]

5 hours ago, Sunderland said:

Be prepared. Have a plan. 

Are you saying prepare my last will and testament and make funeral arrangements?

So what exactly is your experience with pandemics?

There has not been a global flu pandemic since 1957-1958.  

Seems your parents or you must have survived that one.

[christophe75]

12 hours ago, Dutyfirst said:

H1n1 isnt a coronavirus so you cant compare apples to oranges. There have been previous indepth studies that show how humidity and heat affect the ability for coronaviruses to survive outside of the body hense lowering infection rates. You can google these peer reviewed studies. 

 

Fair enough.

 

But why we do not apply basic common sense with the documented cases we already have on our hands ?

 

There was tropical heat and humidity inside the conference hall of the Hyatt Hotel in Singapore where a dozen of people got infected ?

 

And inside the "hell" cruise ship in Japan... they had a "desert" climate ?

 

And what about the few... taxis were drivers where infected (Japan, Thailand...) ? Well, yes, I agree, sometimes it is really hot in taxis in Bangkok ????

 

I think promiscuity, density are very important factor too. Furthermore we all focus on "droplets", and airbone way... But what if... the virus spreads more by fecal/urine contacts ? AKA by touching ?

 

Those 2 ways start to be studied in China.

 

Like a family who share a.... meal (with pots) (Hong Kong).... like a buffet shared (boat, conference : you use the spoons in the buffet, or the barman pour you a glass, you take the glass, then you take some peanuts even with a spoon, many people before you used the same spoon etc.)

 

In a taxi you exchange bills and coins. Sometime the driver gives you the "toolway receipt"... He touches your fingers...

 

Or public and unisex toilets (airplane for instance.)

 

For that matter, the thai motto "wash your hands" might be spot on. Anyway, with other germs and viruses we know hands are.... moving disaster !

Edited February 23, 2020 by christophe75

[phkauf]

12 hours ago, Sunderland said:

I don't know exactly when we will see the surge of cases in Thailand, but it will come soon. Perhaps the government is too afraid to test ALL the pneumonia cases in the country because deep down they know that the virus is already here.

BINGO!!