Investing

[biplanebluey]

I have been reading an article about Cryptocurrency and this new Bitcoin thing.They mention people like Richard Branson and Bill Gates as to make it so official,but it sounds so good its almost irresistable Anybody here had any experience ?? I just feel that they would not be able to implicate rich and famous people especially muli millionaires (billionaires!!!!!) if it was a hoax Am I being a bit naive here or am I the typical sort of person who desperately need a bit more money to get a better life??

Edited February 20, 2020 by biplanebluey
Bit of info left out on original

[Surelynot]

Leave well alone. End off. If you are young stick all your spare cash in a number of big funds and forget about them for 40 years. 

[JimmyTheMook]

2 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Leave well alone. End off. If you are young stick all your spare cash in a number of big funds and forget about them for 40 years. 

 

Surely not Warren Buffets approach.

[digibum]

Cryptocurrencies are not investments.  They're speculation. 

 

If anything people like Bill Gates and Richard Branson owning cryptocurrenices is the exact reason that most people shouldn't go anywhere near them.  Gates could lose $10 million and it would mean nothing to him.  By the tone of your post, I don't think you're in the same financial position. 

 

One day, many years from now, we may all be using digital currency.  But, I can assure you, if that day comes, you won't be buying noodles from the local noodle lady with Bitcoin. 

 

The problem with cryptocurrencies is that there is an interesting underlying technology and a somewhat novel approach to recording transactions, but the currencies themselves, are essentially worthless without speculation.  There is no Bitcoin Co. that has revenue and profits and you can invest in the future growth of the company, because Bitcoin isn't a company.  Bitcoin is simply a digital thing that some people say has value and it's based on a technology that is freely available to everyone. 

My biggest issue with crytocurrencies, especially Bitcoin is that there are often fundamental flaws that people ignore even when the evidence is irrefutable. 

 

For instance, when I first heard about Bitcoin back in the early 2010's, the first thing that intrigued me was the transaction capabilities.  Everyone back then was saying that Bitcoin was going to replace every other currency on earth.  No more USD.  No more GBP.  No more Euro.  Everybody was going to be using Bitcoin in the future. 

 

But then I looked at the technology and the processing power required to do a transaction.  Earlier in my career I had designed payment systems so I was well aware that good ideas often do not scale to large transactional volume. 

 

There was no way Bitcoin would ever be able to match even just the Visa credit/debit card network.  I mean, like not even close.  For instance, Bitcoin averages 4.6 transactions per second (TPS) as of Jan 2019.  Visa network averages 1,700 TPS and they claim they can burst to 24,000 TPS. 

 

How would it handle even the Visa network's volume, let alone all cash transactions, MasterCard network, bank transfers, etc? 

 

Yet every so-called expert that I ran into was selling this story.  They kept saying that I didn't understand the technology (even though I know waaaaaaay more about it than they do on a technological level) and that one day, sometime in the future, technology would catch up and the processing power would be there. 

 

I also have asked a lot of questions about the stability of Bitcoin.  Why would someone want to get their paycheck in Bitcoin if the value of Bitcoin could drop 50% from Friday when I get my paycheck to Monday when I want to go grocery shopping? 

 

A core feature of currency people want to use is stability.  The core feature of pure speculation is price volatility.  Those two things aren't compatible. 

 

You might as well bet on your favorite sports team with every paycheck if Bitcoin is a currency.  You might even get better returns. 

 

Several years later, they suddenly began acknowledging the TPS problem (check out the link for the Wikipedia page on the TPS problem) and the volatility problem and then they claimed Bitcoin was not a currency at all, it was a store of value like gold or a commodity. 

 

Wait, what? 

 

But I'm not against Bitcoin.  I've used it.  I've held money on Bitcoin and moved money across borders with it.  It has certain specific uses. 

 

But I wouldn't put a bunch of money into Bitcoin expecting to make a steady return like I might with a mutual fund.  It could triple in the next week or it cold be worth half of what it's worth today. 

 

The Bitcoin world is filled with hucksters that have no idea what they're talking about trying to sound like experts.  To me that sounds more like a bad MLM scheme than an investment. 

 

 

 

 

[freeman01]

High risk / High reward

It's the kind of investment where if you loose everything it shouldn't affect you in any way, like the moment you invest you consider the money gone. otherwise very very bad idea.

Bitcoin is an investment one should hold and forget for 5-10 years or more. Anything else is trading and takes a lot of time to learn or is like gambling and you will lose big by selling at the bottom.

[piewarmer]

The blockchain will take over, it's awesome technology, Crypto's are still developing, not enough market cap to be super stable yet.

Bitcoin itself is not efficient at all but people love the original because of increasing rarity.

Other crypto's will make our lives better and you wont even know your'e using them day to day.

invest just a small amount and take it off the exchange for safe keeping.

[Oxx]

Scam.

 

"British business tycoon Richard Branson spoke out Thursday about the rash of bitcoin scam stories that have used his name to lure victims."

 

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-scam-alert-no-richard-branson-doesnt-think-quit-job

[digibum]

2 hours ago, Oxx said:

Scam.

 

"British business tycoon Richard Branson spoke out Thursday about the rash of bitcoin scam stories that have used his name to lure victims."

 

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-scam-alert-no-richard-branson-doesnt-think-quit-job

 

That's also a good point.  They're essentially unregulated in any way.  Plus, if stolen there is a near 0% chance of ever seeing your money again.  Those two factors combined make them a magnet for scammers and thieves. 

 

Advocates like to point out that Bitcoin eliminates the middle-man (i.e. banks) but banks offer you a layer of protection.  You have to become a cybersecurity near-expert to protect your money. 

[digibum]

12 hours ago, freeman01 said:

High risk / High reward

It's the kind of investment where if you loose everything it shouldn't affect you in any way, like the moment you invest you consider the money gone. otherwise very very bad idea.

Bitcoin is an investment one should hold and forget for 5-10 years or more. Anything else is trading and takes a lot of time to learn or is like gambling and you will lose big by selling at the bottom.

 

It's really not an investment.  Even using your description, that's not how people talk about investments.  When have you ever heard someone say, "Yes, we think that if you buy Apple stock, you have to just mentally consider your money gone, and maybe, sometime down the road, it could be worth a lot of money . . . or it could be worth nothing"?  Buying Apple is an investment.  What you're describing is, at best, raw speculation, and at worst, no better than putting your money on black or red on a Vegas roulette wheel. 

 

And, that's okay, but people try to talk as if it's an actual investment on par with a mutual fund, and it's not. 

 

For the vast majority of people, it is an unsuitable investment.  Any financial advisor that sold an average investor an investment with the risk profile of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency would have their license taken away and would be facing possible jail time. 

 

But, would it be suitable for Bill Gates to put $10 million into it?  Sure, $10 million is such a tiny fraction of his net worth that for him, it would be like you buying a $5 lottery ticket. 

 

The other thing that you have to keep in mind when they talk about big names getting into the cryptocurrency space is that many of them are investing in the businesses that use cryptocurrencies to solve a problem other people are willing to pay for.  For instance, some big name may not be putting their money into Bitcoin, rather they might be putting their money into a company that is creating a cryptocurrency platform that allows people to repatriate funds (i.e. when people working in one country send their money back to their home country - which is BIG business). 

[Oxx]

25 minutes ago, digibum said:

But, would it be suitable for Bill Gates to put $10 million into it?

 

Except, of course, he wouldn't - he's not stupid.

 

"Gates [told] CNBC that bitcoin is "one of the crazier, speculative things" he's seen, saying he would "short it if there was an easy way to do it."

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/warren-buffett-bill-gates-charles-munger-beat-up-on-bitcoin/

[digibum]

1 minute ago, Oxx said:

 

Except, of course, he wouldn't - he's not stupid.

 

"Gates [told] CNBC that bitcoin is "one of the crazier, speculative things" he's seen, saying he would "short it if there was an easy way to do it."

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/warren-buffett-bill-gates-charles-munger-beat-up-on-bitcoin/

 

It's funny because when OP first posted that, I thought, "That doesn't sound like Bill Gates" but assumed OP might have read something and gave him the benefit of the doubt. 

[biplanebluey]

Well OK Guys I am happy that I have explored where I considered going and you all seem to --- no HAVE--- the same opinion ,and that has probably saved me an amount of money and probably a lot of frustration. Thank you for explaining all the problems I could have faced  Dougal

[freeman01]

2 hours ago, digibum said:

 

It's really not an investment.  Even using your description, that's not how people talk about investments.  When have you ever heard someone say, "Yes, we think that if you buy Apple stock, you have to just mentally consider your money gone, and maybe, sometime down the road, it could be worth a lot of money . . . or it could be worth nothing"?  Buying Apple is an investment.  What you're describing is, at best, raw speculation, and at worst, no better than putting your money on black or red on a Vegas roulette wheel. 

 

And, that's okay, but people try to talk as if it's an actual investment on par with a mutual fund, and it's not. 

 

For the vast majority of people, it is an unsuitable investment.  Any financial advisor that sold an average investor an investment with the risk profile of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency would have their license taken away and would be facing possible jail time. 

 

But, would it be suitable for Bill Gates to put $10 million into it?  Sure, $10 million is such a tiny fraction of his net worth that for him, it would be like you buying a $5 lottery ticket. 

 

The other thing that you have to keep in mind when they talk about big names getting into the cryptocurrency space is that many of them are investing in the businesses that use cryptocurrencies to solve a problem other people are willing to pay for.  For instance, some big name may not be putting their money into Bitcoin, rather they might be putting their money into a company that is creating a cryptocurrency platform that allows people to repatriate funds (i.e. when people working in one country send their money back to their home country - which is BIG business). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment

Quote

To invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future.

It's a risky investment that's all. high risk / high reward, wasn't that clear enough ?

And if you study Bitcoin in full and understand the tech behind and the economic around it, it's not as risky as it appears. The return have been crazy so far in 10 year of existence, unlike anything else ever. Well worth considering if you ask me.

For example, what a loss of 1000 will do to your life ? what if those 1000 will be worth 100,000 or more in 5 or 10 years ?

 

The point of considering the money gone like I describe is to not be bothered with the up and down of the price and the risk of selling at the bottom, kind of a mind trick to stick to your plan really.

Yes you need a plan, that goes without saying.

No offense but all those extremely careful talks about investing really gets annoying, people aren't that stupid and won't just throw their money in and out, and those who do will learn fast.

 

 

2 hours ago, Oxx said:

 

Except, of course, he wouldn't - he's not stupid.

 

"Gates [told] CNBC that bitcoin is "one of the crazier, speculative things" he's seen, saying he would "short it if there was an easy way to do it."

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/warren-buffett-bill-gates-charles-munger-beat-up-on-bitcoin/

Bill gates is full of <deleted> on this one, plenty of ways to short bitcoin with dozens if not hundreds of millions at the time of the article. Take your money where your mouth is. shorting bitcoin is the most risky thing to do.

and if I may, the fact that these people are even mentioning Bitcoin is a big incentive imho.

[digibum]

Sorry, let me break this down for you.  This is the definition of an investment which you yourself just posted:

 

Quote

To invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future.

 

And here's how you described investing in Bitcoin

 

Quote

It's the kind of investment where if you loose everything it shouldn't affect you in any way, like the moment you invest you consider the money gone. otherwise very very bad idea.

 

If your investment advice is to kiss your money goodbye the moment you invest and maybe, maybe, maybe it might be worth more at some future point, that does not fit the definition of investing "with the expectation of some benefit in the future."  You're telling OP to invest with the expectation of losing it, but if it hits, it's going to hit big. 

 

So instead of looking up the definition of investing on Wikipedia, perhaps you should check an investment oriented website and search for the difference between investing and speculation. 

 

Bitcoin is very much speculation.  It is not something the average investor should be involved with. 

 

This is why cryptocurrency advocates often come off as MLM hucksters.  They try to paint crypto as something that is on par with buying a Vanguard mutual fund.  It's not.  It's more like buying stock options which could be worth a lot or they could crater to $0. 

 

Quote

 

And if you study Bitcoin in full and understand the tech behind and the economic around it, it's not as risky as it appears. The return have been crazy so far in 10 year of existence, unlike anything else ever. Well worth considering if you ask me.

 

I have studied Bitcoin.  And I probably understand the underlying technology way better than you having looked at the original source code and having helped design the security and architecture for some blockchain-based solutions. 

 

A few of my friends have written books on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and I disagree with a lot of what they say.  And I personally know the owner of one of the bigger crypto-news sites, and I also disagree with a lot of what he thinks/says. 

 

And, if you read my previous posts, you'll notice that I have studied the economics of payment systems and banking and Bitcoin fails miserably as a currency.  So, what is it now, a store of value?  A value of what? 

 

As far as I can tell, the price of Bitcoin and most of cryptocurrencies is a function of hype and FOMO (fear of missing out). 

 

Here are two good articles, that I would challenge you to refute. 

 

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/319192

 

https://www.wired.com/story/theres-no-good-reason-to-trust-blockchain-technology/

 

 

[freeman01]

6 hours ago, digibum said:

Sorry, let me break this down for you.  This is the definition of an investment which you yourself just posted:

 

 

And here's how you described investing in Bitcoin

 

 

If your investment advice is to kiss your money goodbye the moment you invest and maybe, maybe, maybe it might be worth more at some future point, that does not fit the definition of investing "with the expectation of some benefit in the future."  You're telling OP to invest with the expectation of losing it, but if it hits, it's going to hit big. 

 

So instead of looking up the definition of investing on Wikipedia, perhaps you should check an investment oriented website and search for the difference between investing and speculation. 

 

Bitcoin is very much speculation.  It is not something the average investor should be involved with. 

 

This is why cryptocurrency advocates often come off as MLM hucksters.  They try to paint crypto as something that is on par with buying a Vanguard mutual fund.  It's not.  It's more like buying stock options which could be worth a lot or they could crater to $0. 

 

I have studied Bitcoin.  And I probably understand the underlying technology way better than you having looked at the original source code and having helped design the security and architecture for some blockchain-based solutions. 

 

A few of my friends have written books on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and I disagree with a lot of what they say.  And I personally know the owner of one of the bigger crypto-news sites, and I also disagree with a lot of what he thinks/says. 

 

And, if you read my previous posts, you'll notice that I have studied the economics of payment systems and banking and Bitcoin fails miserably as a currency.  So, what is it now, a store of value?  A value of what? 

 

As far as I can tell, the price of Bitcoin and most of cryptocurrencies is a function of hype and FOMO (fear of missing out). 

 

Here are two good articles, that I would challenge you to refute. 

 

https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/319192

 

https://www.wired.com/story/theres-no-good-reason-to-trust-blockchain-technology/

 

 

sorry man I am not a native english speaker, I do my best but obviously here I failed to express my point accurately, went a bit too fast there. Obviously If I put money into something I expect the value to increase over time, now there is always a risk, and the risk is high in this case. that was my point.

 

I meant to say "And if one study Bitcoin in full" instead of "And if you study Bitcoin in full", I did not meant you personally since you obviously displayed very good knowledge on the matter previously, my bad.

Again, I did not mean to undermine you or anything in my post, sorry if you took it that way. It was merely a way to point out there is strong ground to bitcoin.

 

I still strongly disagree with your statement that the average investor should not invest in bitcoin, everyone should learn to take risk as early as possible, that kind of approach only makes the average person only more ignorant by not trying, it's all a matter how much and managing risks.

but that just my personal opinion.

Edited February 21, 2020 by freeman01

[digibum]

10 hours ago, freeman01 said:

I still strongly disagree with your statement that the average investor should not invest in bitcoin, everyone should learn to take risk as early as possible, that kind of approach only makes the average person only more ignorant by not trying, it's all a matter how much and managing risks.

but that just my personal opinion.

 

But the only problem is that most investor protection related regulatory agencies don't agree with you on that. 

 

If an investment advisor recommends an investment to someone they have to be able to defend that recommendation based on suitability.  Was it suitable for a person with that net worth, that risk tolerance, etc? 

 

100% Bitcoin does not pass that test for most people.  100 times out of 100, the financial advisor loses any claim brought against him by a customer who complains that the investment was too risky. 

 

You feeling like everyone should take more risk is absolutely and completely irrelevant.  You might also think everyone should tie a belt around their neck and choke themselves while they masturbate.  That's the beauty of an opinion, you can have one independent of others having to act upon your opinion. 

 

The part where your opinion becomes problematic is when you try to dress it up with BS and pretend it's a factually based so you can persuade others that it's normal. 

 

I didn't take any of your dismissive/condescending comments personally.  I understand it's part of the playbook.  If someone criticizes Bitcoin, attack them for not understanding.  I've seen your arguments 1,000 times before.  But just like the argument for Bitcoin, once you begin introducing facts, the whole "you don't understand" argument kind of falls apart. 

 

To be honest, what I don't understand is the cult like way that Bitcoin grabs people.  I've literally known people who are so technologically illiterate that can't create a simple webpage, start talking to me like they're cryptography experts after getting involved with Bitcoin. 

 

 

[freeman01]

You are the extreme opposite of what you denounce ... both are utterly stupid ihmo.

 

Good luck with your crusade gainst bitcoin, you are going to need it.

 

[Lacessit]

Rule # 1 of investing is do not invest in something you do not understand.

Is bitcoin really an investment? One invests in a share or bond to derive income. Seems to me one puts money into bitcoin in the hope of a capital gain.

I'll leave bitcoin to people smarter than me, because I do not understand it, and see a lot of red flags.

[Oxx]

37 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

One invests in a share or bond to derive income.

 

And it is the anticipated level of income that provides a basis for determining a share or bond's current value.

 

Bitcoin and gold provide no income, and as such the value is purely arbitrary.  Speculation, not investment.

[scubascuba3]

Onecoin scammed thousands of people out of billions of dollars, all thought they'd get rich

[dinga]

1 hour ago, Oxx said:

 

And it is the anticipated level of income that provides a basis for determining a share or bond's current value.

 

Bitcoin and gold provide no income, and as such the value is purely arbitrary.  Speculation, not investment.

In the case of gold bullion, data suggests you are wrong in saying it's a speculative investment,  Gold supporters (which includes Central Banks, who now can count their increasing gold holdings as Tier 1 assets) see the physical metal as a store of value  ie.  a safe refuge to preserve value

 

 

[freeman01]

Well the value of bitcoin is derived from its fundamental properties :

- open source

- decentralized

- censorship-resistant

- borderless

- peer to peer

 

Bitcoin literally cannot be stopped or controlled by anyone or any government, and everyone can use it without any discrimination whatsoever.

it takes 12 to 24 words to memorize to secure your bitcoin account and you can cross any border with your bitcoin without being stolen by anyone, try to do that with cash or gold or anything else ...

 

Bitcoin is now 10 years old, with no history of it being hacked, yet it is worth billions so the incentive for hackers is gigantic.

 

Add to that a fix monetary policy, the amount of bitcoin being created is set to be cut in half every 4 years for a total of 24 millions bitcoins maximum in the year 2140.

Opposed to that the US dollars whose money supply keep increasing like candy, guess where this is going ?

 

Do you homerwork and you will see it's a really good investment and so far history did not disappoint if you hold long term.

[baansgr]

The Bitcoin boat sailed a few years ago.....some made shedloads in a few months, millions more lost and are still in debt to this day...leave well alone.

[digibum]

12 hours ago, dinga said:

In the case of gold bullion, data suggests you are wrong in saying it's a speculative investment,  Gold supporters (which includes Central Banks, who now can count their increasing gold holdings as Tier 1 assets) see the physical metal as a store of value  ie.  a safe refuge to preserve value

 

 

 

Gold also has tangible value though.  It is used in making electronics, jewelry, and various other products, so it differs greatly from Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies in that it has tangible value outside of being a store of value. 

[digibum]

11 hours ago, freeman01 said:

Well the value of bitcoin is derived from its fundamental properties :

- open source

- decentralized

- censorship-resistant

- borderless

- peer to peer

 

Bro, you need to stop.  You're just parroting the Bitcoin BS. 

 

What value does it being opensource give it?  There are tons of opensource projects in GitHub that are worth $0. 

 

It is decentralized.  Ok.  So is Bittorrent.  Nobody is telling you to invest all of your money in Bittorrent.  Being decentralized is worth exactly $0. 

 

I don't know what censorship-resistant means.  If anything it seems like you're trying to describe an inherited trait of decentralization as an entirely new trait.  Sort of like saying that "It's black.  It absorbs heat."  The second statement is easily derived from the first one as the second is a property of the first. 

 

Borderless . . . well, depends on how you define it.  If I am in the US, I have to use an exchange that will trade is USD.  If I come to Thailand, I now have to use an exchange that transacts in THB.  So, the process of moving USD to THB is way more complicated than just transferring money bank to bank or via Transferwise.  And, to be honest, it's often cheaper when you factor in the volatility and spread of bid/ask prices and the double exchange fees.  

 

In order move money from USD to THB, I do a bank transfer of money to the USD Bitcoin Exchange.  I then purchase Bitcoin.  There is a bid/ask price, so I will lose money right away if I tried to sell it.  Plus I pay an exchange fee.  Then I have to move my Bitcoin to the THB Bitcoin Exchange.  There, I can sell my Bitcoin.  I have to take the market rate on the THB Bitcoin Exchange which may be lower than what I just paid on the USD Bitcoin Exchange because the price is always fluctuating.  And I also pay a fee to sell.  Then I receive THB and I have to transfer that money to my Thai bank account. 

 

Or, I could go online and request to send $1,000 USD to my Thai bank and let the bank handle the conversion and pay one fee. 

 

So, is it really borderless if it's actually more difficult to do than just transferring money like you can already do today?  Value $0

 

It's peer-to-peer.  Yes, you've already established that it's decentralized and yet you've named two features of decentralization as separate features as if they are completely separate from the decentralization.  Again, Bittorrent is peer-to-peer.  Doesn't make it valuable.  Value $0

 

Absolutely nothing you mentioned has intrinsic value.  Being peer-to-peer is not itself valuable.  Being open source is not in itself valuable.  None of what you said creates value by itself. 

 

Quote

Bitcoin literally cannot be stopped or controlled by anyone or any government, and everyone can use it without any discrimination whatsoever.

 

First off, if you would have read those two previous articles that I linked to, one of Bitcoin's problems is that is controlled by people.  Who makes the decision to fork the code base?  People.  Who controls the mining?  An increasingly small number of people.  "Whales" are constantly being accused of manipulating the market, and whales are people.   

 

Also, Bitcoin becomes worthless the second you have no internet connection.  

 

Quote

it takes 12 to 24 words to memorize to secure your bitcoin account and you can cross any border with your bitcoin without being stolen by anyone, try to do that with cash or gold or anything else ...

 

Yes, but please also describe how you can lose all of your Bitcoin if you forget those 12 - 24 words.  Get bonked on the head in a car accident?  Sorry bro.  Starting to get early dementia?  Sorry bro.  Grandpa put all of his money into Bitcoin and died without telling anyone the password?  Sorry Timmy, no college for you. 

 

It also increases your personal risk.  If the only place that the keys to the vault exist are between your two ears, you are far more likely to be kidnapped and tortured for your Bitcoin.  And because one of its "features" is that it is totally untraceable, that increases the incentive to steal it.  

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/singapore-crypto-consultant-kidnapped-for-1-million-ransom

 

https://micky.com.au/lure-of-cheap-bitcoin-leads-to-kidnapping-and-torture/

 

https://www.ccn.com/dutch-bitcoin-trader-suffers-brutal-torture-with-a-heavy-drill-in-violent-robbery/

 

https://btcmanager.com/thieves-kidnap-drug-beat-torture-south-african-bitcoin-enthusiast/

 

Quote

Bitcoin is now 10 years old, with no history of it being hacked, yet it is worth billions so the incentive for hackers is gigantic.

 

I've been with my bank for 25 years and they have hundreds of billions of dollars and I haven't lost a single penny.  So what? 

 

Quote

 

Add to that a fix monetary policy, the amount of bitcoin being created is set to be cut in half every 4 years for a total of 24 millions bitcoins maximum in the year 2140.

Opposed to that the US dollars whose money supply keep increasing like candy, guess where this is going ?

 

 

Haven't you heard?  Bitcoin is no longer a currency.  Yep, it's been declared that Bitcoin is now a store of value.  So why are you using the old monetary policy arguments for something that isn't a currency? 

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/bitcoin-is-no-longer-a-currency/274859/

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-not-currency-never-will-be-expert-blog

 

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-no-longer-looks-like-digital-gold-by-one-measure

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/18/the-simple-reason-bitcoin-will-never-be-a-currency/

 

[Please note that two of those sources are from crypto-friendly news sites]

 

Bitcoin was at $20,000 a couple of years ago, today it's about, what, $9,600?  The USD has not fallen 50% in value in that time period but Bitcoin has. 

 

This is what makes it completely unsuitable as a currency.  Unless a country is in an economic death spiral, most of the major world currencies stay pretty stable.  You could easily lose 20% or 30% of your money overnight with Bitcoin. 

 

But, you'll say, it could go up too, right?  Yes, it can go up.  But the vast majority of people value currency stability.  When I get my paycheck on Friday, I want it to buy the same number of eggs that it could on Monday.  I don't want to gamble that it might go up or not have enough money to buy eggs. 

 

Even if things go the other way, let's say that Bitcoin keeps rising in value, it is still a horrible currency.  Because the USD is stable, I have no problem taking out a 30 year mortgage based in USD. 

 

But would you want to take out a 30 year mortgage that had to be repaid in Bitcoin?  If you believe Bitcoin is going up, you would be insane to pay back a loan with something that will be worth more tomorrow than it is today.  So people HODL/hoard Bitcoin rather than transacting with it (which is why the Bitcoin community now claims that Bitcoin is no longer a currency). 

 

And ironically, it's the hard cap of 21 million coin that causes this behavior.  Touted as a feature of Bitcoin, it all but assures that if more and more people were to adopt Bitcoin and the cap was hit, the price of Bitcoin would increase, meaning that nobody would want to spend Bitcoin today when they think it will be worth more tomorrow. 

 

There are already stories in the media bout the guy that bought a pizza with $30 worth of Bitcoin which would have been worth $80 million USD at one point. 

 

It might sound like this is an argument for investing in Bitcoin but it's actually not if you understand the implications. 

 

It's basically implying that Bitcoin has already failed, it just doesn't know it yet. 

 

In order for Bitcoin to be a viable thing, the price needs to stabilize.  But most of the value of Bitcoin today is derived from its volatility which attracts speculation. 

 

If Bitcoin becomes stable, it is no longer attractive to speculators who will abandon it, driving the price down.  And the HODL crowd will eventually lose faith as their losses increase which will drive them out and the price of Bitcoin even lower. 

 

So, in order for Bitcoin to become the thing that most Bitcoin advocates claim that it is, they have to lose money. 

 

The other option is the path that we are already on which is the constant building and popping of speculative bubbles which will eventually destroy any confidence in Bitcoin. 

 

Quote

Do you homerwork and you will see it's a really good investment and so far history did not disappoint if you hold long term.

 

Man, this is the "greater fool theory" in action.  HODL.  Every Bitcoin guy sitting on losses is always saying that you have to hold on.  It's a long-term investment.  LOL. 

 

 

[freeman01]

7 hours ago, digibum said:

Bro, you need to stop.  You're just parroting the Bitcoin BS. 

Hey kido how about you grow the hell up and focus on the argument and the topic and quit you childish bully behaviour ? Otherwise go choke on you belt moron.

[digibum]

5 hours ago, freeman01 said:

Hey kido how about you grow the hell up and focus on the argument and the topic and quit you childish bully behaviour ? Otherwise go choke on you belt moron.

 

I have responded in great detail to everything you've said.  If Bitcoin can't stand up to what I've said, maybe it's not the great investment you claim it is. 

[freeman01]

16 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

I have responded in great detail to everything you've said.  If Bitcoin can't stand up to what I've said, maybe it's not the great investment you claim it is. 

well next time maybe try that without getting personal and trying to pick up a fight or whatever that is ? maybe ?

I am just a single individual investor trying to make money and discussing investment online in an open and peaceful way, not some kind of zealot trying to convert non believers as you have been portraying me.

 

who do you think has time to read that kind of monstrous wall of text ?

 

Now this kind of beg the question, why does one as to put so much effort and energy to go against bitcoin and crypto in general ? This is typically what one do to hold onto a belief.

if anything that gets me more confident than ever in my investment in bitcoin. What I highlighted earlier about bitcoin wasn't an opinion but actual facts.

Edited February 23, 2020 by freeman01

[Airalee]

45 minutes ago, digibum said:

 

I have responded in great detail to everything you've said.  If Bitcoin can't stand up to what I've said, maybe it's not the great investment you claim it is. 

Ummm...where to begin.  First, I want to thank you for explaining (in all your previous posts) so rationally and simply what I have wanted (needed?) to hear for so long.  I have had people try to get me to buy bitcoin but when I tell them that I don’t understand it (I don’t have the smarts to even understand the concept of blockchain) and am not interested, the insults start.  It just seems kinda fishy the way it’s touted.
 

If you don’t mind...I’d like to further delve into the subject of investing vs speculation.  I do have a BS in Economics but frankly...I find it to be fairly worthless.

 

You mentioned gold.  I do own some, but I don’t see it as an investment or as speculation.  It was purely an emotional purchase based on someone’s recommendation who I considered to be one of those crazy genius types.  I bought it after selling my house in 2005 when I saw what was coming down the line due to all the Neg-am liars loans (stated income).  However....I can’t even understand my own rationale for owning it (don’t have any plans to sell) beyond thinking “if it’s good enough for central banks to hoard, maybe I should have some too”.

 

I guess I don’t really have any specific question, but would rather just hear your general opinion with regards to it.

 

Thanks again.

[Why Me]

I have a question about bitcoin which I've never really had an answer to.

 

But first let me say I believe (without knowing much economics) that a fiat currency like the USD has intrinsic value in that it is supported by the full faith and credit blah blah of the US Govt. or something along those lines. Which means to my mind that as long as the US doesn't collapse into a heap the value of the USD stays. For the converse see Zimbabwe.

 

So where does bitcoin derive its value? There's no government or asset behind it (which is claimed to be a good thing). Seems to me that it's kind of like artwork, which is worth as much or little as people care to bid.

 

I would love to know the answer.

 

Btw, to the OP: if you are looking to speculate that's your business, good luck and have fun and I wish you success. On the other hand, if you're looking for a reasonably safe long-term investment I would strongly recommend a broad market index fund.