ExpatOilWorker Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, DrTuner said: The source of those figures has always been a mystery. My going theory would be wild guessing or King Power's stats (the only place where they'd know your nationality). And please don't say mastercard, they get their stats from TAT. 100% agree. TAT's arrival numbers are rock solid, but when they try to estimate how much tourist spend it is at best fabricated lies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, DrTuner said: The source of those figures has always been a mystery. My going theory would be wild guessing or King Power's stats (the only place where they'd know your nationality). And please don't say mastercard, they get their stats from TAT. The official story is that TAT uses sampling, over 16,000 tourist related businesses supply data every week which is then consolidated and reported. Hotels report nationality, nights stay, total bills, tour costs, restaurants supply data, assumptions are made about mom and pop businesses spends. Don't shoot me, I'm just telling you how I understand they derive tourist spend. FWIW sampling can be very reliable if done properly, it's a technique that is used extensively in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 23 minutes ago, saengd said: The official story is that TAT uses sampling, over 16,000 tourist related businesses supply data every week which is then consolidated and reported. Hotels report nationality, nights stay, total bills, tour costs, restaurants supply data, assumptions are made about mom and pop businesses spends. Don't shoot me, I'm just telling you how I understand they derive tourist spend. FWIW sampling can be very reliable if done properly, it's a technique that is used extensively in the West. The problem is how, if they are really doing such, would they ever be able to distinguish between the customers nationalities. Hotels would have some data from TM30, restaurants.. I've never been asked my nationality when I went for a dinner. Might well be my somtam thai went to the Greenland column. It's just not feasible in a cash society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teee Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) On 2/26/2020 at 12:39 PM, Tropicalevo said: They are all staying in private villas. Much cheaper and more flexible. AirBnb has a lot to answer for. It is killing the hotel industry Hotels need to rent rooms at a good rate for 1 month...why on earth would you come to Thailand and pays daily rates at hotels when if your planning to visit lots of places outside say Bkk for just 3 days at a time...need to leave luggage somewhere....people now rent a condo for a month and go away come back when they need to. Edited February 27, 2020 by Teee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 5 hours ago, DrTuner said: The problem is how, if they are really doing such, would they ever be able to distinguish between the customers nationalities. Hotels would have some data from TM30, restaurants.. I've never been asked my nationality when I went for a dinner. Might well be my somtam thai went to the Greenland column. It's just not feasible in a cash society. If in doubt tick box and take guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mmushr00m Posted February 27, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 27, 2020 Wow Truly Amazing Thailand. Only country in the world that is buckling and international trend. Next thing we will hear...Thailand moves up international democracy rankings! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton Rd Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Mrs works part time for 3 big hotel chains in Bkk. Came home yesterday to say she has been cut from 2, floors closed in all the hotels, staff laid off and even the internet cut off. Large one in Siam has almost no guests at all. Many people will be hurting next month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xylophone Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Orton Rd said: Mrs works part time for 3 big hotel chains in Bkk. Came home yesterday to say she has been cut from 2, floors closed in all the hotels, staff laid off and even the internet cut off. Large one in Siam has almost no guests at all. Many people will be hurting next month. Interesting point, and I saw a post earlier about hotels reporting one thing and another, and I have it on good authority (executive of one particular top-class hotel) that things like the occupancy rate of hotels are often fudged as hotels try and "outdo" one another with regards to occupancy rates.........as in, "we are a top quality hotel which is shown by our occupancy rate, however we still have a few vacancies". Along those lines anyway. So how much store does one put on these figures and those from the industry in general?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ExpatOilWorker Posted February 28, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted February 28, 2020 ATTA are reporting a 74.1% drop in tourist for the February 1-20 periode according to the Post today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 (edited) The crash in the markets has been the steepest and quickest in history, it's likely the fall in the number of tourists will be similar. But in the same way that markets will hit bottom, start to recover and claw back lost ground, so too will the tourist numbers and that can happen surprisingly quickly. And I do think that very soon there will be a serious buying opportunity for Thai markets, they say to buy when everyone else feels fear and sell when they feel exuberant. Edited February 28, 2020 by saengd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavideol Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 5 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said: ATTA are reporting a 74.1% drop in tourist for the February 1-20 periode according to the Post today. are you referring to "Atta is a member-driven trade association that promotes tourism to Africa from all corners of the world". in anyway not Thailand ATTA, because the one here in Thailand claims increase not drop 555 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieBob18 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 TaT counts all border arrivals as tourists, when the truth is that many people are not tourists - many are visiting friends/relos, or they have returned from doing that, or they are itinerant workers, plus miscellaneous others (inlcuding border runners). Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics - when they are not accountable they grow and grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Is this real Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Actually, saying there was a 2.48% rise actually shows how bad things were a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrTuner Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said: ATTA are reporting a 74.1% drop in tourist for the February 1-20 periode according to the Post today. Also from a Post article, only 703 tourists from China in February, a 99.7% year-on-year drop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saengd Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Bank of England Governor Carney says BOE has detected fewer tourists in the UK along with weakened and disrupted supply chains, he expects UK to take an economic downgrade as a result of the virus. Anyone hoping for a better Pound Baht exchange rate may be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabhand Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 20 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said: ATTA are reporting a 74.1% drop in tourist for the February 1-20 periode according to the Post today. ATTA (Association of Thai Travel Agents) figures are generated only from their members and represent those travelers who use their travel services. I would expect that the vast majority of customers would be those using package tours, which, in the case of China, have now been banned by their home country. No big surprise that these numbers have fallen off a cliff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mavideol Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 18 hours ago, Mavideol said: are you referring to "Atta is a member-driven trade association that promotes tourism to Africa from all corners of the world". in anyway not Thailand ATTA, because the one here in Thailand claims increase not drop 555 I guess the poster with the ATTA comment doesn't have a sense of humor...... he could just correct to ATA 555 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now