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Peterw42

US Stock market, the elephant in the room

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What are peoples thoughts on the current market fall ? Down 10%, the biggest one day fall in history.

Is it the beginning of the end, a blip that will bounce back ?

 

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I by now means am an expert, but have had most of my money in the US markets for 35 years.

 

This has to be one of the biggest over reactions I have ever seen due to the CDC statement. 

And I agree, tremendous buying opportunity I bet the Dow will be 30,000+ by the end of the year.

 

 

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3 hours ago, digibum said:

The market seems to be reacting less to the scare and more to the ways that reactions to the virus will impact businesses.  Tourism is taking a huge hit.  Conferences and conventions are being cancelled.  Some manufacturing sectors are already having trouble getting product out of China.    People are less likely to go out and go shopping.  People are starting to talk about the impact on the Summer Olympics. 

 

Bottom line is, from a business perspective, the market is reacting partly out of hysteria but there is a real threat to the world's economies as a result of this.  Even if it's a quarter or two of lowered economic output, it's going to hit earnings. 

I would say the US markets at least have overreacted.  I don’t follow tourism or airline type stocks, but watching Microsoft (ultimate rent-seeking company at this point, that people cannot avoid paying) dropping 14% in a week seems irrational.  (Granted they are up 6% in the last 3 months.)

 

It is pretty hard to draw any conclusions at this point on the real effects of the disease. About the only solid data I can find, that is easily corroborated, is that when you have more than 1 person in a population of 10,000 requiring hospitalization you are likely to overwhelm the system and have accelerating impacts on survival.

 

Oh, and that people all over the world lie and make poor decisions in order to protect tourism.

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Irrational hysteria, Greenspan might say. I put in 30k yesterday. According to the futures I am going to lose off the gong today. But I expect to be ahead late next week.

 

Go ahead, virus, prove me wrong. I dare you, I double dare you.

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I'm shorting, I wouldn't be surprised if we get down to 2009 levels.

 

Correction way overdue, central banks don't have much ammo to fight it, but I'm sure they will helicopter money as much as they can and the Apples will buy back stocks like they do... but with the massive supply chain disruptions and spread of this disease, I think it's going to take a very long time to get back to the all time highs we just experienced.

 

We will see a slow staircase down over the coming months. 

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16 hours ago, Peterw42 said:
16 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Down 10%, the biggest one day fall in history.

1) Down more than 10% this week

2) The biggest 1-day fall in history for the Dow Jones

2a) The Dow Jones is 30 "industrials" - does not include AMZN, GOOG/GOOGL, FB, BRK-B.  It includes Visa but not Mastercard, includes Verizon but not ATT 

2B) The Dow is price-weighted.

3) The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted.  The biggest 1-day fall was 20.47% on the 19th Oct. '87

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, unsubscribe said:

I'm shorting, I wouldn't be surprised if we get down to 2009 levels.

The market is up 438.329% (with dividends  re-invested) since 2009.

Your lifestyle would have been some much better; rather than the $3,000/m you live on today, you could be living on $13,000/m.

 

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16 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Is it the beginning of the end, a blip that will bounce back ?

Its a blip that will bounce back. An overreaction to a virus that will burn itself out. Question is timing ... when to buy the dip?

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Langsuan Man said:

The virus may have psychology started the down slide but the black and white evidence of this administration's total incompetence is what sustained it

 

Trump's hyperbole on all subjects has finally sunk in to the masses, they no longer buy his BS

Yes and no.  They weren't reassured by his ridiculous lies about corona, but they are still going to vote for him.  

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