Household debt hit Bt13 trillion by end of 2019

[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, CGW said:

I don't remember all the details now, believe the house cost was 2.2m for a basic unit, I borrowed 1m, main reason I did borrow was I wasn't a 100% sure that the developer was Kosher, they were, that was a good house rented out for years at 30k a month! Sold it 7 years ago - should have kept it.

Definitely should have kept it if you were getting 30k/month.  But...as you have demonstrated, your situation was far different than the average Thai home buyer.  
 

How many Thais are putting down 50%+?  I’ll bet not many.  In fact, I would be willing to bet that one of the reasons that most Thais prefer new builds isn’t because of ghosts as so many people seem to believe, but rather the fact that builders and bankers are usually in bed together and the lending standards are far looser thereby allowing the Thais to enter that rarified status as a h̶o̶m̶e̶o̶w̶n̶e̶r̶ homedebtor.

[Airalee]

 

6 minutes ago, saengd said:

BTW I resent that you suggest I have no integrity, I said you'd have to take it at face value and if I'm wrong I will admit to being so. 

 I never said that you have no integrity.  It is quite questionable, however.  You delightfully spin your replies in most of the economic discussions on the forum and cherry-pick data to try to bolster your supposed knowledge.

 

9 minutes ago, saengd said:

The numbers don't add up because you don't think they are possible and in your world they probably aren't. But in a Thai world in Thailand they almost certainly are, they would have to be given the relatively low price of real estate.

 

 

Math is math regardless of the country.  Numbers don’t lie if one has access to all the numbers.  When I have questioned you before regarding this, you don’t reply.

 

Trick question for you...when is property appreciation a good thing and when is it bad?  Try wrapping your head around that.

[CGW]

9 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Definitely should have kept it if you were getting 30k/month.

The rent dropped to 22k a month for the last five years I owned it, there were so many houses being built and on the market by then, still should have kept it! ???? 

[saengd]

There's plenty of web sites out there listing houses in Chiang Mai Province for under 1 mill. Baht, here's one:

https://www.dotproperty.co.th/en/properties-for-sale/chiang-mai?max_price=1000000&page=2

 

TBH houses at that level wouldn't normally be sold through an agent I wouldn't have thought so this must be tip of the iceberg stuff.

[ChaiyaTH]

22 minutes ago, saengd said:

That house is no different from thousands of other houses in the the North of Thailand so I estimate there must be tens of thousands of mortgages valued under 1 million baht dating back many years, spcially in the secondary market.

The smallest 2 bedroom houses in Sansai with almost no gardens at all cost easily 1.1M baht already, often Thais take the longest possible terms of 30 years.
With interest they then easily pay 2.2-2.5M baht in total if including all the interest. We rent one cheap but our neighbour got it 4 years ago, he regrets it now, can't sell it too. Very low quality and many issues on the houses already now, doubt it lasts the 30 years in the first place.

Often those village projects offer flexible requirements if it comes to income and such, making people willing to pay more for the houses than they are worth.
Simply easier to get the mortgage on it and often just small down payments.

Edited February 29, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, Airalee said:

 

 I never said that you have no integrity.  It is quite questionable, however.  You delightfully spin your replies in most of the economic discussions on the forum and cherry-pick data to try to bolster your supposed knowledge.

 

Math is math regardless of the country.  Numbers don’t lie if one has access to all the numbers.  When I have questioned you before regarding this, you don’t reply.

 

Trick question for you...when is property appreciation a good thing and when is it bad?  Try wrapping your head around that.

OK I get it now, I couldn't figure out why you were so precious about me relaying what my BiL said, it took a while but now the coin dropped. You don't like my involvement in other threads regarding economics in Thailand but rather than participate in them and challenge something I've said at the time, you're using this as a proxy to vent your angst, what is it, shy, lacking in confidence, don't know, you only understand mortgages.....sad. 

 

I think we're absolutely done here on any subject.

[saengd]

2 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

The smallest 2 bedroom houses in Sansai with almost no gardens at all cost easily 1.1M baht already, often Thais take the longest possible terms of 30 years.
With interest they then easily pay 2.2-2.5M baht in total if including all the interest. We rent one cheap but our neighbour got it 4 years ago, he regrets it now, can't sell it too. Very low quality and many issues on the houses already now, doubt it lasts the 30 years in the first place.

Often those village projects offer flexible requirements if it comes to income and such, making people willing to pay more for the houses than they are worth.
Simply easier to get the mortgage on it and often just small downpayments.

Sure, I'm in Mae Rim just down the road from you and the situation here is similar, I don't think there's any new houses to be had at under 2 mill. unless you build it yourself but there's a lot of older, second market stuff that's very cheap. And people buy those places and they need mortgages.

[ChaiyaTH]

9 minutes ago, saengd said:

Sure, I'm in Mae Rim just down the road from you and the situation here is similar, I don't think there's any new houses to be had at under 2 mill. unless you build it yourself but there's a lot of older, second market stuff that's very cheap. And people buy those places and they need mortgages.

Well actually there is plenty of plots that are double the size I rent already at around 300K baht, they are already prepared with higher ground, electric and water + main road. You could easily build something on that with another 700K, if you would have 1.5M even 3 bedrooms etc.

But most of the pre build villages I agree with you, the tiny ones without any garden and watching into your neighbours living room, 1-1.3M easily already.
The ones where you also have a bit more garden and perhaps 3 bedrooms easily get to 1.7M and it goes over 2M if wanting a real garden.

Personally we just going to mortgage the land (10 years max) and build with our own money later on, so we have something regardless if we live back in Europe.
Eventually put the land in my son his name and put a 30 year lease on the house with my own name. Then he can decide to kick me out, not the miss.

Edited February 29, 2020 by ChaiyaTH

[Thongkorn]

How much is not documented . Loans by the Big money people who have never ending pay back scheme.

[saengd]

8 minutes ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Well actually there is plenty of plots that are double the size I rent already at around 300K baht, they are already prepared with higher ground, electric and water + main road. You could easily build something on that with another 700K, if you would have 1.5M even 3 bedrooms etc.

But most of the pre build villages I agree with you, the tiny ones without any garden and watching into your neighbours living room, 1-1.3M easily already.
The ones where you also have a bit more garden and perhaps 3 bedrooms easily get to 1.7M and it goes over 2M if wanting a real garden.

Personally we just going to mortgage the land (10 years max) and build with our own money later on, so we have something regardless if we live back in Europe.
Eventually put the land in my son his name and put a 30 year lease on the house with my own name. Then he can decide to kick me out, not the miss.

Around me it's easily possibly to buy ex-paddy (on a road) for 10/12k tw, quite a few Thai people have bought, filled up the land and built and made some really nice houses for under 2 mill. PM me if you need details.

[Mitkof Island]

Like everybody else in the world . You need to show everyone around you your new car. Forget about food on the table. A huge crash is coming that will make 1997 look like nothing. It will be the best thing for Thailand. Millions will suffer from their own greed and shear stupidity. Don,t spend money you don,t already have. Personally i have never been in debt. Guess what ? It ain,t that hard.

[Airalee]

45 minutes ago, saengd said:

OK I get it now, I couldn't figure out why you were so precious about me relaying what my BiL said, it took a while but now the coin dropped. You don't like my involvement in other threads regarding economics in Thailand but rather than participate in them and challenge something I've said at the time, you're using this as a proxy to vent your angst, what is it, shy, lacking in confidence, don't know, you only understand mortgages.....sad. 

 

I think we're absolutely done here on any subject.

I understand much more than mortgages.  All you have is google to back up your assertions.  I have no need to get involved with your economic discussions as it is you (and your posturing) against people who can only scream “it’s gonna crash!”.  Does it make you feel better posting page upon page of googled statistics in order to prove something (very little IMO) to people who aren’t even worth arguing with?    
 

Every time I have commented on the other threads, you have avoided anything that I have mentioned either through a dismissive off topic comment or outright silence.  Perhaps you feel threatened?  Feel free to ignore me...no skin off my back.  Meanwhile, I’ll just watch from afar and chuckle to myself.

[saengd]

25 minutes ago, Airalee said:

I understand much more than mortgages.  All you have is google to back up your assertions.  I have no need to get involved with your economic discussions as it is you (and your posturing) against people who can only scream “it’s gonna crash!”.  Does it make you feel better posting page upon page of googled statistics in order to prove something (very little IMO) to people who aren’t even worth arguing with?    
 

Every time I have commented on the other threads, you have avoided anything that I have mentioned either through a dismissive off topic comment or outright silence.  Perhaps you feel threatened?  Feel free to ignore me...no skin off my back.  Meanwhile, I’ll just watch from afar and chuckle to myself.

Well I'm sorry if you feel left out or ignored, that wasn't intentional, I genuinely do try and answer any and all questions put to me but I'm sure I miss some from time to time. But in going forward, if I don't answer your question in the future it's probably going to be because I didn't see it, after this waste of time of an exchange it's because you'll almost certainly be on my ignore list.

[kingdong]

23 hours ago, saengd said:

Not really. Sub prime loans were nothing new, the problem was they were securitised, packaged and sold as grade one debt, which they weren't, if banks and brokerages had understood that they wouldn't have bought them in the first place.

Just go,'es to show how clever banks are in buying a load of gash debts,or were they blinded by the sniff of an earner,I ask again not a banker are you?

[saengd]

1 minute ago, kingdong said:

Just go,'es to show how clever banks are in buying a load of gash debts,or were they blinded by the sniff of an earner,I ask again not a banker are you?

I am retired but still have a keen interest in economics, specifically economics in Thailand. I did work for a bank for three years in the US but in the IT function so no, I am not and never was a banker.

[Airalee]

33 minutes ago, kingdong said:

Just go,'es to show how clever banks are in buying a load of gash debts,or were they blinded by the sniff of an earner,I ask again not a banker are you?

It wasn’t “subprime”...subprime just was term used for someone with a particular FICO score.  Alt-A was the next step up and Prime...well...I’m sure you get the point.  Where the issue lied was with the way the negatively amortizing (pick-a-pay) loans were structured.  They were designed to fail regardless of the credit worthiness of the borrower.  
 

If you run the numbers on the loans, you can see where the payment would triple when the interest rate reset and the loans recast (reset and recast are two completely different things).  Then...add “stated income” to the mix where people were given the ability to fudge their incomes on the loan application in order to *stretch* and get into that “dream home”.  Combine that with human nature (greed, desire etc) and no matter the credit score...as soon as the pen hit the paper, the fuse was lit.

 

Angelo Mozilo was quoted as calling his loans “dog vomit” at one point and Bear Stearns had emails that disclosed them calling their securitization offerings “sacks of sh#t”.

 

They knew what they were doing.

[Denim]

Who's worried about debt ?

 

Not this junta government. They are already thinking of another ' chim  shop chy ' promotion which will solve the debt problem by getting people to borrow to spend more.

Sell more bonds to the Chinese , bring in more hot money. After all, the junta are immune from prosecution , so fiddle while the country burns.

 

We can all see that a little way down the road from here, within the next 12 months, all of the countries many problems will come to a head together. Economic meltdown , drought , rising food prices , ongoing viral epidemics , etc.

 

Then at last , happiness will have been returned to the people in full measure.

[saengd]

23 minutes ago, Denim said:

Who's worried about debt ?

 

Not this junta government. They are already thinking of another ' chim  shop chy ' promotion which will solve the debt problem by getting people to borrow to spend more.

Sell more bonds to the Chinese , bring in more hot money. After all, the junta are immune from prosecution , so fiddle while the country burns.

 

We can all see that a little way down the road from here, within the next 12 months, all of the countries many problems will come to a head together. Economic meltdown , drought , rising food prices , ongoing viral epidemics , etc.

 

Then at last , happiness will have been returned to the people in full measure.

It's worth reminding that the IMF urged Thailand to operate a larger budget deficit, aka, run more debt, simply because they hadn't been borrowing enough for their own good. So the idea of borrowing to build out infrastructure is one that was recommended and endorsed by the IMF and World Bank. It's also worth repeating that public debt is under 42% of GDP, a level that is considered to be extremely low.

Edited February 29, 2020 by saengd

[Airalee]

21 minutes ago, Denim said:

Who's worried about debt ?

 

Not this junta government. They are already thinking of another ' chim  shop chy ' promotion which will solve the debt problem by getting people to borrow to spend more.

Sell more bonds to the Chinese , bring in more hot money. After all, the junta are immune from prosecution , so fiddle while the country burns.

 

We can all see that a little way down the road from here, within the next 12 months, all of the countries many problems will come to a head together. Economic meltdown , drought , rising food prices , ongoing viral epidemics , etc.

 

Then at last , happiness will have been returned to the people in full measure.

Some people think you can borrow yourself to prosperity.  Go figure.