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Coronavirus spreads in three continents; markets brace for global recession

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Coronavirus spreads in three continents; markets brace for global recession

By Stephanie Nebehay, Ryan Woo

 

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Employees work on a medical supply production line at a factory in Huaian, Jiangsu province, China February 28, 2020. China Daily via REUTERS

 

GENEVA/BEIJING (Reuters) - Countries on three continents reported their first cases of the coronavirus on Friday as the world prepared for a pandemic and investors dumped equities in expectation of a global recession.

 

Share prices were on track for the worst week since the global financial crisis in 2008 as virus-related disruptions to international travel and supply chains fueled fears of recession in the United States and the Euro zone.

 

Asian stocks followed a plunge on Wall Street, where the benchmark S&P 500 index fell more than 4% on Thursday, extending a rout that has sliced more than 10% off of its closing peak on Feb. 19.

 

“The coronavirus now looks like a pandemic. Markets can cope even if there is big risk as long as we can see the end of the tunnel,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

 

“But at the moment, no one can tell how long this will last and how severe it will get.”

 

Mainland China - where the virus originated late last year - reported 327 new cases, the lowest since Jan. 23, taking its tally to more than 78,800 cases with almost 2,800 deaths.

 

Four more countries reported first cases, taking the number of countries and territories outside China with infections to 55, with more than 4,200 cases killing about 70 people.

 

Countries other than China now account for about three-quarters of new infections.

 

An Italian man who arrived in Nigeria this week was confirmed as the first coronavirus case in Africa’s most populous country. And a person who returned on a flight from Iran became the first in New Zealand.

 

In eastern Europe, Belarus and Lithuania reported their first cases.

 

World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said all nations should prepare.

 

“This virus has pandemic potential,” Tedros said in Geneva on Thursday. “This is not a time for fear. This is a time for taking action to prevent infection and save lives now.”

 

Ratings agency Moody’s said a pandemic - usually taken to mean a disease spreading quickly in different places - would trigger global and U.S. recessions in the first half of the year.

 

‘DECISIVE’

 

Mongolia, which has yet to confirm a case, placed its president, Battulga Khaltmaa, in quarantine as a precaution after he returned from a trip to China, state media reported.

 

Scientists say much remains unknown about the virus, which can lead to pneumonia, and a vaccine could take up to 18 months to develop.

 

A Chinese official called the epidemic the most difficult health crisis in the country’s modern history. Another said some recovered patients had been found to be infectious, suggesting the epidemic may be even harder to eradicate.

 

In addition to stockpiling medical supplies, governments ordered schools shut and canceled big gatherings to try to halt the flu-like disease known as COVID-19.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration was considering invoking special powers to expand production of protective gear.

 

In Europe, France’s reported cases doubled, Germany warned of an impending epidemic and Greece, a gateway for refugees from the Middle East, announced tighter border controls.

 

The death toll in Italy, Europe’s worst-hit country, rose to 17 and the number tested positive increased by more than 200 to 655.

 

Germany has about 45 cases, France about 38 and Spain 23, according to a Reuters count.

 

Tedros told reporters that Iran, Italy and South Korea were at a “decisive point” in efforts to prevent a wider outbreak.

 

OLYMPIC DOUBTS

 

South Korea has the most cases outside China, and reported 571 new infections on Friday, bringing the total to 2,337. The outbreak, which has killed 13 people in South Korea, has also dented President Moon Jae-in’s popularity, a poll showed.

 

The head of the WHO’s emergency program, Dr Mike Ryan, said Iran’s outbreak may be worse than realized. It has suffered the most deaths outside China - 26 from 245 reported cases.

 

U.S. intelligence agencies are monitoring the spread of coronavirus in Iran as well as India, where only a handful of cases of have been reported, sources said.

 

Japan is scheduled to host the 2020 Olympics in July but Ryan said discussions were being held with organizers about whether to go ahead.

 

Olympic organizers will decide next week on the ceremonial torch relay. It is due to arrive on March 20 for a 121-day journey past landmarks including Mount Fuji and Hiroshima’s Peace Memorial Park.

 

As of Friday, confirmed cases in Japan topped 200, with four deaths, excluding more than 700 cases and four more deaths from a quarantined cruise liner, Diamond Princess.

 

Tokyo Disneyland will close from Saturday to March 15.

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to take whatever steps necessary to prevent a severe blow to an economy already teetering on the brink of recession.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-02-28

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Update on COVID-19 outbreak with Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Christl Donnelly

 

Main takeaway for me: using Singapore as a baseline for detection rates, 2/3 of cases leaving Wuhan for other countries by air were missed.

 

& of course Singapore didn't catch 'em all...

Edited by onebir
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Well the recession is here allready along with the virus but don’t worry whipping boy pence is getting set up for the fall trump is trying to blame the democrats and lie storming to deflect blame other than that America is preapared not! It’s gonna hit the fan big time interesting times indeed

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My annuity  took a major hit. and I am getting ready to retire, I should had moved it to a low low risk basket.

Very ,Very stupid!!  

now I need to wait until this thing is resolved and maybe the market rebounds. 

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2 hours ago, onebir said:

Update on COVID-19 outbreak with Professor Neil Ferguson and Professor Christl Donnelly

 

Main takeaway for me: using Singapore as a baseline for detection rates, 2/3 of cases leaving Wuhan for other countries by air were missed.

 

& of course Singapore didn't catch 'em all...

and I thought it was telling that in UK .. if you feel sick .. do NOT go to hospital or GP to check - but ring and discuss the issue first with NHS ...

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There may just be a usable virus within 5-6m - assuming the two periods mentioned can't overlap at all - if this isn't just some overconfident CEO shooting his mouth off:


 

Quote

 

Separately, Israel’s state-funded Migal Galilee Research Institute said it had identified similarities between COVID-19 and Infectious Bronchitis Virus, which affects poultry, that could allow it to develop a vaccine to battle the deadly outbreak. It said it was working to quickly adapt its IBV vaccine for use against COVID-19.

 

Human trials have not yet been approved.

 

“Our goal is to produce the vaccine during the next 8-10 weeks, and to achieve safety approval in 90 days,” Migal CEO David Zigdon said in a statement.

 

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-firm-says-it-developed-kit-to-diagnose-coronavirus/

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2 hours ago, tgw said:

as this is a movement caused by external causes and amplified by fundamentals plus the need for a correction, I don't expect the market to rebound, everybody will be afraid to buy while the virus is spreading.

this will hit me hard too.

let's hope this doesn't panic the retirement funds holders into selling, because then all hell breaks lose.

 

I still have my long term retirement accounts. However just out of pure luck I completely eliminated my trading account last week to build a house. Looking to get back in but not doing it yet. Fridays are notorious for sell offs in the last two hours. Nobody wants to hold with the uncertainty over the weekend.

 

I think I will do some bargain shopping on Monday. You might want to look around as buying now could help repair the damage sooner. I wouldn't go full blown cruise liner stocks and stay far far from oil. 

 

If you use index funds I strongly suggest you to rebalance into funds that you can pick sectors and make sure not to be in energy at all. I would stay put until the elections. If Trump wins your stocks probably surge and if not well you are going to be given everything for free and stocks are simply for the rich. 🙂 

 

I think right now it is likely another leg or two down from here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, tgw said:

as this is a movement caused by external causes and amplified by fundamentals plus the need for a correction, I don't expect the market to rebound, everybody will be afraid to buy while the virus is spreading.

this will hit me hard too.

let's hope this doesn't panic the retirement funds holders into selling, because then all hell breaks lose.

I was afraid to look, today I looked,and my annuity has lost 10% of its value. 

  I know the fundamentals are wrong but with  interest rates so low, there is really very little option , other then the wall street casino, to park money. I expect bargain buying just as soon as a resolution to the virus is found. or if the summer heat buts it into remission. 

At least I am hopping. 

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3 minutes ago, Kelsall said:

How much do you charge Trump to live in your head 24/7?

We are sick of the constant trolling and the shame he has brought on the office of potus that beeing said hopefully this recession won’t be as bad as the last one this is a supply side problem so commerce is basically at a standstill if we can get a handle on the virus get things flowing again hopefully all will be ok

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11 hours ago, sirineou said:

My annuity  took a major hit. and I am getting ready to retire, I should had moved it to a low low risk basket.

Very ,Very stupid!!  

now I need to wait until this thing is resolved and maybe the market rebounds. 

If you are from UK, you can use drawn down or partial withdrawal option to tide you over. No need to purchase an annuity now

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7 hours ago, Cryingdick said:

I still have my long term retirement accounts. However just out of pure luck I completely eliminated my trading account last week to build a house.

Of course. Of course. After coming on this forum and constantly pumping the likes of Boeing and Apple and predicting the Dow would rise 10,000 more points, "just out of pure luck" you got out of the markets at the top!  How many times have I heard this? 

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13 hours ago, Tug said:

Well the recession is here allready along with the virus but don’t worry whipping boy pence is getting set up for the fall trump is trying to blame the democrats and lie storming to deflect blame other than that America is preapared not! It’s gonna hit the fan big time interesting times indeed

Can you actually provide some credible references to all these malicious statements?

Pence is being setup for a fall? Our President puts the number two man in the country as head of the team handling this and all you think about is failure? Sounds like you already know the outcome of this situation, please  share your crystal ball. I think Mike Pence’ experience working with many Government Agencies at al levels of government is a positive thing, and I do care when he was Governor he did not support the needle exchange program which the morons are now saying was his mishandling of theAIDS outbreak. At the time needle exchange was illegal in his state, it became legal during his administration.

If You don’t have any credible facts why do you need to post such trash? Please provide some credible references to support your statement, if you can’t use spellcheck why should we think you do any factchecking?

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9 minutes ago, CaptRon2 said:

Our President puts the number two man in the country as head of the team handling this and all you think about is failure?

Yep, I'm sure Pence will do a good job. Who better to get down on his knees and pray to Almighty God for America's salvation from the pestilance born upon us by Satan? (aka Xi Jinping).

 

 

Edited by DannyCarlton
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