FarFlungFalang Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, saengd said: I will have more confidence in the numbers when I see what the fatality rate is in countries outside China, all the indicators are the Chinese stats. are very unreliable. I think you will have to settle for a reasonable estimate which is probably going to be very helpful for dealing with future outbreaks of this nature.To be fair to the Chinese stats they can only test those cases that are presented to them and I seen "reasonable estimates" that only 1 in 19 cases are being diagnosed,again another guess from one of the most reliable institutions in England considered one of the best in the world and even they stress that it is the best guess and not to be considered definitive in any way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayaout Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said: Well we probably will not know because of the 80% of cases that get the infection will have recovered without life threatening complications.This statement I've just made is a "reasonable estimate" in other words a "guess" on my part without definitive data to support it but note that I've inserted the word "probably" which is not definitive.We have been brainwashed into accepting these definitive statements as something akin to fact and make irrational decisions and statements perpetuating misconceptions without accommodating the idea that a "reasonable estimate" is a guess. To "know" when this is finish one would have to test everybody (not nearly everybody) with a conclusive test that can if indicate that someone has been infected even though they have recovered. Sorry Tayout that most of my answer is directed at rabas's post. Not only will you have to test everyone alive but one would have to test everybody that has died since the outbreak started even though many will have been cremated which I would imagine would be somewhat difficult. I understand but while the SARS epidemic was going on the estimate was 3% fatality rate but once it went away expert said it was 10%. They probably did not test everyone but they had more time to review all the data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 2 hours ago, smedly said: Has anyone noticed the supply of bread has dried up - very simple thing but I have been unable to buy my fav loaf all this week - why is that ?, I have asked in 7/11 and familymart and they just say they cannot get - why ? anyway we all have our opinions about this place we live - for me something just isn't adding up - it would take a lot to convince me otherwise I have noticed this shortage but fortunately I make most of the bread (rolls) in one of those little glass convection ovens available at most supermarkets they're also great for pizzas.Why the shortage?Well with the advice being offered of stocking up panic buying sets in and people's will to survive kicks in even at the expense of other's needs which is why I get rather peeved at the relentless sensational reporting by the media in order to get as many clicks they can to generate more advertising revenue.. This publishing of sensational falsely definitive information is creating unnecessary and harmful fear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemonjelly Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) I’m starting to think that they won’t release genuine stats as to avoid panic. They know they cannot control it, it’s too virulent and the Thai penchant for open food markets, families drinking from same water bowl etc cannot be undone so easily. It’s just a case of panic control now, when it gets really bad, schools will be used as emergency hospitals and martial law (curfews, neighbourhood quarantines etc) will be implemented. Edited February 29, 2020 by lemonjelly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, Tayaout said: I understand but while the SARS epidemic was going on the estimate was 3% fatality rate but once it went away expert said it was 10%. They probably did not test everyone but they had more time to review all the data. I agree that collecting as much data as possible is a huge benefit in combating these outbreaks.Data collected on previous outbreaks I would suggest has saved many lives in this outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zydeco Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 3 hours ago, saengd said: The billion dollar question for me is why the number of confirmed cases is so low in all the Western Pacific countries, with the exception of Korea. Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia even Singapore are very low to quite low. The easy answer is the true numbers are being covered up, but by all those countries? In the case of the US, it simply is because they aren't testing people. Less than 500 people out of a population of 330 million has been tested. The US, especially Trump, doesn't want to know, because the true numbers would wreck Trump's favorite barometer of his popularity, the stock markets (should say wreck them "even more"). Trump is taking a page out of the Thai handbook. No tests = No infections = No problem. Or, as Trump says, "it's a miracle!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhood Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 I am very sure Thailand has hundered or thousends of infected people! After thailand has no strategic prevention, furthermore, any information is withheld and manipulated, I would not be surprised if the spread of the virus has progressed so far that effective measures can no longer be taken. Why does a country fly its inhabitants out of Thailand ??? When I see what efforts are being made in Europe to contain the infection circle, I can imagine what is not going on here! God save this country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotchilli Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 14 hours ago, saengd said: That is slightly surreal, every country in the world is counting cases and Thailand is only now asking hospitals to report centrally, have I got this wrong? You've got it right.... Thailand who said they're in control got it wrong.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haecksler Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Don't rely on data from Thailand. I wouldn't believe them. Make your own picture by assessing data from around the world even though nobody can give 100% sure data as this is not possible at this time. Only estimates are possible. One interesting point I find is why nobody returns from Thailand to western countries and becoming sick? In Germany a couple return from Italy and become sick people return from Japan and South Korea and becoming sick but is there any case of a returnee from Thailand becoming sick? I am think there are much more cases out there without being tested / reported but how ever the situation is still some sort of relaxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caldera Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 These clowns hold a meeting without sporting face masks? Let's hope Ai Anutin doesn't see that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inepto Cracy Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 555 I was not reported as positive early Jan. Told it could effect tourists coming here. 555 lick chinese a..e folks, When you all get sick, I will laugh at your demise, you liars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redline Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) Surreal-I mean really great coordination ???? Edited February 29, 2020 by Redline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cake Monster Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 19 hours ago, bluesofa said: That seems to give the impression that up to now this hasn't been happening? And if its true, then thats why the numbers of infected people is abnormal. compared to the stats that other Nations are reporting. It also raises the question " and what else is not being reported " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emptypockets Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 10 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said: The billion dollar question for me is "does any body know what the unconfirmed case number is and hence what the fatality rate is.Nobody knows if it's the same as the normal flu or not yet the media are state what they think is the fatality rate without saying they don't know.Why?Why are they allowed to do this scaremongering? The only scaremongering I'm aware of is on this esteemed forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarFlungFalang Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, emptypockets said: The only scaremongering I'm aware of is on this esteemed forum. Don't get out much?Sorry but you left the door open.I'm pretty sure I've contributed to it a bit here,although I do try to balance it out as I get a bit wishy washy,not to mention confusing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emptypockets Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Inepto Cracy said: 555 I was not reported as positive early Jan. Told it could effect tourists coming here. 555 lick chinese a..e folks, When you all get sick, I will laugh at your demise, you liars. Maybe you weren't positive? Did you see definitive results of whatever test you had? Happy you recovered from whatever it was you had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emptypockets Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said: Don't get out much?Sorry but you left the door open.I'm pretty sure I've contributed to it a bit here,although I do try to balance it out as I get a bit wishy washy,not to mention confusing. No problem. Every thread on the forum seems to go down the same path, no matter what the subject is. The Thais hate us and are determined to make our lives hell until we leave apparently. Or some variation of the theme. In this case it is the thousands upon thousands of infections that the big bad Thais are hiding from us, The forum is a hotbed if conspiracy theorems, mostly promulgated by people who don't live here. I recommend the forum for entertainment value alone. Edited February 29, 2020 by emptypockets 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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