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German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

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German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

 

2020-03-17T214114Z_1_LYNXMPEG2G2MF_RTROPTP_4_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-GERMANY.JPG

Empty chairs and tables are seen on a square during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Cologne, Germany, March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic is likely to take about two years to run its course, the head of Germany's public health agency said on Tuesday, adding that much depended on the speed with which a vaccine against the virus was developed.

 

Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that eventually some 60% to 70% of the global population would have been infected, recovered and acquired immunity, but it was impossible to say how fast that would happen.

 

"Our working assumption is that it will take about two years," he told a news conference on Tuesday, adding that the timing depended on how long it takes to get a vaccine developed and deployed.

 

"We do not yet know what the death rate will look like in the end," he told reporters.

 

The institute said the number of confirmed cases in Germany had risen by more than 1,100 to 7,156 with 13 deaths.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose government on Monday announced strict social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus, urged Germans to avoid panicking about food and money shortages.

 

"I would like to urge the public to stick to the official statements instead of believing the many rumors that are unfortunately circulating around," Merkel said. "We are doing everything to inform (the public) in a transparent way. Such fears are baseless."

 

Wieler said that without the strict measures Germany could end up facing millions of coronavirus cases.

 

"We want to avoid that," he said, adding the institute was raising the risk level in Germany to "high." He said hospitals would have to at least double their intensive care capacity as one in five cases was serious.

 

(Reporting Thomas Escritt; Writing by Madeline Chambers and Joseph Nasr; Editing by Leslie Adler)

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-18

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They are starting clinical trials on the anti malaria/hiv drugs that kill it.

 

 

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Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

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The Spanish flu of 1918/19, thought to have originated in Kansas, came in three waves, with the mutated second wave being the most aggressive and deadly. 
 

if you are fit and healthy better to get it and join the herd. Older and at risk people need to severely alter their lifestyles for a couple of years, avoiding crowds, for example. 
 

A vaccine will be problematic if this thing mutates, although if you get it it’s likely any further contraction will be less severe. 

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Posted (edited)

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy 🙂

 

 

Edited by GeorgeCross
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9 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy 🙂

 

 

I have been in lock down for 4 year, can't say I'm not enjoying it, lots to do whilst at home.

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