German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

[webfact]

German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

 

Empty chairs and tables are seen on a square during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Cologne, Germany, March 17, 2020. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic is likely to take about two years to run its course, the head of Germany's public health agency said on Tuesday, adding that much depended on the speed with which a vaccine against the virus was developed.

 

Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that eventually some 60% to 70% of the global population would have been infected, recovered and acquired immunity, but it was impossible to say how fast that would happen.

 

"Our working assumption is that it will take about two years," he told a news conference on Tuesday, adding that the timing depended on how long it takes to get a vaccine developed and deployed.

 

"We do not yet know what the death rate will look like in the end," he told reporters.

 

The institute said the number of confirmed cases in Germany had risen by more than 1,100 to 7,156 with 13 deaths.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose government on Monday announced strict social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus, urged Germans to avoid panicking about food and money shortages.

 

"I would like to urge the public to stick to the official statements instead of believing the many rumors that are unfortunately circulating around," Merkel said. "We are doing everything to inform (the public) in a transparent way. Such fears are baseless."

 

Wieler said that without the strict measures Germany could end up facing millions of coronavirus cases.

 

"We want to avoid that," he said, adding the institute was raising the risk level in Germany to "high." He said hospitals would have to at least double their intensive care capacity as one in five cases was serious.

 

(Reporting Thomas Escritt; Writing by Madeline Chambers and Joseph Nasr; Editing by Leslie Adler)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-03-18

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[leeneeds]

7 minutes ago, webfact said:

The institute said the number of confirmed cases in Germany had risen by more than 1,100 to 7,156 with 13 deaths.

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

9 minutes ago, webfact said:

eventually some 60% to 70% of the global population would have been infected, recovered and acquired immunity, but it was impossible to say how fast that would happen

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

[UbonThani]

People need to return to normal.

[Virt]

I just hope the virus won't mutate into to many strains until we get a vaccine. 

The world is allready looking at a whole lot of pain, when it comes to the economy and lost job. 

This one if affecting us all no matter if we care or not. 

Returning home from Thailand Thursday and looks like I'm returning to some sort of post apocalyptic Europe. 

 

[RichardColeman]

14 minutes ago, leeneeds said:

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is : 

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

[UbonThani]

They are starting clinical trials on the anti malaria/hiv drugs that kill it.

 

 

[Chazar]

2 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is : 

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

and keep  eating bats to wait for the next  one

[UbonThani]

Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

[swissie]

2 years? An infection rate of 70% required to immunize enough people to break the cycle?

Great. That would eliminate 30 % of pensioners, thus saving Pension-Funds, Social-Security Concepts in distress from going under.

Perfect, one problem solved.

[GeorgeCross]

49 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is : 

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

 

quite possibly a day of reckoning for every human on the planet

 

and possibly more than once as it still hasn't been scientifically confirmed that surviving the virus provides full immunity and for how long (though most likely it does)

 

[OneMoreFarang]

56 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

Very scientific! Are your a Trump advisor?

[AlexRich]

The Spanish flu of 1918/19, thought to have originated in Kansas, came in three waves, with the mutated second wave being the most aggressive and deadly. 
 

if you are fit and healthy better to get it and join the herd. Older and at risk people need to severely alter their lifestyles for a couple of years, avoiding crowds, for example. 
 

A vaccine will be problematic if this thing mutates, although if you get it it’s likely any further contraction will be less severe. 

[englishoak]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is : 

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

 

2 years would leave only the above option, most arnt going to isolate for 2 years, let alone able to. plus and heres the kicker...

It wouldn't immunise you from other strains or mutations... there are already 2  and the way C19 attacks the lungs it could make catching it again even more deadly. Findings are scarring of the lungs occurs and as yet there isnt any data about them repairing or not... 

 

Bottom line.... A LOT of people are going to die in the next couple of years from this... thank you China. 

[GeorgeCross]

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy ????

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by GeorgeCross

[4MyEgo]

9 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy ????

 

 

I have been in lock down for 4 year, can't say I'm not enjoying it, lots to do whilst at home.

[PatOngo]

10 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Are you sure China is responsible for this, could have been a traveller who ate at China and spread it there,

Could have been Martians too, but it wasn't, GET REAL! It came from CHINA!

[LomSak27]

These Are the same people who said don't bother with masks. Now masks are not 100 per cent effective but not surprisingly they are effective. And the reason that this health agency and many others in Europe and North America came out with this sage piece of health advice was

. .... Wait for it ... 

 

That did not have enough masks for health workers who needed them. 

 

 

[englishoak]

16 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

only the weak and elderly are sent to their graves early.

 

 

 

actually the data as its growing is showing a large amount of healthy young are being hit and hit hard, yes the older and weaker will be the first obvious victims but an example is 50% in italy critical cases  are under 60 and in the Netherlands its 50% under 50... as this burns through populations I suspect it will turn out to be far worse than currently reported in the 30 - 50 healthy demographic.

 

Having watched a lot of what was going on in China it became clear whole families were getting wiped out, old, mid age and young.... the world isnt going to look anything like the same by the time this is over.

Edited March 18, 2020 by englishoak

[PatOngo]

1 hour ago, UbonThani said:

Whole world hates China now

….and why shouldn't they! They have inflicted this misery on the entire world, *****!

[sezze]

Do not hate Chinese for this . Yes this virus originated there , but other virus are around always and they mutate all the time . There are many cases and deaths of unknown virus every year , in every country . Sooner or later the virus does hit a jackpot , which in this case was in China . The more people who are on this planet , the more chance for it , so expect more of these disease breakout , as long as world population keeps rising .

[nobodysfriend]

2 hours ago, leeneeds said:

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

There are people who had been infected , cured , and reinfected . Immunity , if acquired , might only last a short time .

[car720]

1 hour ago, swissie said:

2 years? An infection rate of 70% required to immunize enough people to break the cycle?

Great. That would eliminate 30 % of pensioners, thus saving Pension-Funds, Social-Security Concepts in distress from going under.

Perfect, one problem solved.

You are obviously quite young, or you are being snide.

[Tayaout]

2 hours ago, leeneeds said:

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

There is some evidence that suggest immunity only last about a year. 

[spiekerjozef]

That's almost as long as the war.

 

(Don't mention the war !)

[nobodysfriend]

2 hours ago, Chazar said:

and keep  eating bats to wait for the next  one

Wildlife will need to be left where it belongs , not on ( seafood ) markets .

[nobodysfriend]

2 hours ago, UbonThani said:

People need to return to normal.

Welcome to the new normal ...

[Dumbastheycome]

25 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

….and why shouldn't they! They have inflicted this misery on the entire world, *****!

And mean while people forget ( or choose to ignore )      https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm#d

Not so clever to point  a crooked  finger.

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Seems the best plan the top boffins have is : 

1. Catch it.

2. If you survive it, you are OK

except that there have been several cases where people have caught it twice after recovering from the first illness, this is going to be like the flu, no real immunity, like the flu, corona will mutate slightly every year making a vaccine less effective.

[spiekerjozef]

2 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

except that there have been several cases where people have caught it twice after recovering from the first illness, this is going to be like the flu, no real immunity, like the flu, corona will mutate slightly every year making a vaccine less effective.

Until the chinese release a new one...

[PatOngo]

11 minutes ago, Dumbastheycome said:

And mean while people forget ( or choose to ignore )      https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm#d

Not so clever to point  a crooked  finger.

We're not talking H1N1, we are talking Corona Virus, Wuhan Flu!