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German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

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2 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

We all owe the Chinese a lot.  After the initial slow response in Wuhan, they vigorously addressed the epidemic at a national level and successfully slowed it's spread to the rest of the world.  In addition to the direct effect they demonstrated effective measures to control transmission.  The governments of Italy, the US, the UK, Spain, and other countries could have benefited from the two month lead time, but they dropped the ball.

 

South Korea, by contrast, obtained genetic material on corona in Dec. and initiated a program to develop test kits for use on a national scale.  They tested, isolated positives, and tracked contacts reaching a new case rate that is currently very low.  That's competent government by contrast to the countries listed above.  

Yes, unfortunately by the time they put Wuhan in lock down 50% of the population had already left and spread it to the rest of the world.

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Just now, cmarshall said:

We all owe the Chinese a lot.  After the initial slow response in Wuhan, they vigorously addressed the epidemic at a national level and successfully slowed it's spread to the rest of the world.  In addition to the direct effect they demonstrated effective measures to control transmission.  The governments of Italy, the US, the UK, Spain, and other countries could have benefited from the two month lead time, but they dropped the ball.

 

South Korea, by contrast, obtained genetic material on corona in Dec. and initiated a program to develop test kits for use on a national scale.  They tested, isolated positives, and tracked contacts reaching a new case rate that is currently very low.  That's competent government by contrast to the countries listed above.  

Excellent points. Still, it's not a sure thing that the Chinese have stopped the virus. Instead, maybe they've just hit the pause button. Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong, which were rightly praised for their efforts are now seeing a resurgence of cases. So it may be that once the Chinese are no longer isolating themselves - and sooner or later they have to get back to work - the epidemic will return.

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5 hours ago, leeneeds said:

The double effect, coming to a place near you.

 

So is it best to catch it,  recover from it and be immune, the understanding of reoccurrence and to what extent its effect has on the immune system, has a long way to go, sadly many more deaths till we get to that point.

That would depend on two things - your health/age profile and your attitude to risk.

 

Clearly if you are over 70 and have some sort of pre-existing illness, your chances of dying because of the illness is very high. If you are 30, fit and healthy, your chances of dying because of the infection is low.

 

But even in the case of a fit and healthy 30-year-old, the risk of dying because of the disease is not zero!

 

So it depends on your attitude to risk. If you are prepared to take the risk (assuming that your risk is low), then yes.

 

With two caveats. It APPEARS that you get immunity after recovery from Covid-19. But it is not clear if that applies to everyone and it is not clear if the immunity is long lasting. You could in theory get Covid-19 and get it again a year later.

 

Second caveat - everyone talks about mortality but there has been little talk about morbidity - that latter term refers to any long-lasting health issues that the virus might leave behind. In the case of Covid-19, the concern would be with long-term effects on the lungs. This is something that we just do not know at this stage as there is not enough data.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, unfortunately by the time they put Wuhan in lock down 50% of the population had already left and spread it to the rest of the world.

But they never needed to put a full quarantine on any other cities subsequent to Wuhan and Hubei.  They learned and we could have learned from their example, but we didn't.  The US could have been Guangdong, but will be Lombardy instead.

Edited by cmarshall

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3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Excellent points. Still, it's not a sure thing that the Chinese have stopped the virus. Instead, maybe they've just hit the pause button. Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong, which were rightly praised for their efforts are now seeing a resurgence of cases. So it may be that once the Chinese are no longer isolating themselves - and sooner or later they have to get back to work - the epidemic will return.

All true, but they avoided overwhelming their healthcare facilities resulting in a spike in deaths.  The Chinese are gradually reducing the restrictions now.  I expect that they will reimpose them as necessary.

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10 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

But they never needed to put a full quarantine on any other cities subsequent to Wuhan and Hubei.  They learned and we could have learned from their example, but we didn't.  The US could have been Guangdong, but will be Lombardy instead.

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

But it is absolutely right that our governments learnt nothing from the Chinese. I saw a German expert criticise China for effecting the Wuhan lockdown AFTER half the population had left that city, but it's hardly like the US, UK or Germany acted in a decisive fast fashion. By the time they closed the borders to Chinese the virus was already in each of those countries. Too late to close borders.

 

Every country was let down by its government.

 

They probably could not prevent infections, but as sure as there's money in Church, they could have reduced the numbers by acting decisively and fast. What is the point of closing borders after you incubated the disease?

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4 hours ago, swissie said:

2 years? An infection rate of 70% required to immunize enough people to break the cycle?

Great. That would eliminate 30 % of pensioners, thus saving Pension-Funds, Social-Security Concepts in distress from going under.

Perfect, one problem solved.

We may well laugh at that, I did too, but is this not natures way? Darwin's 'survival of the fittest' in action. We've all read about 'herd immunity' haven't we? In practice the stronger, younger members of the herd survive and gain immunity whilst the older and weaker fall prey to the lions.

 

And I'm not being callous here, I am one of the more vulnerable members of the herd, but most of those who die were on their way to the exits anyway. In my view mankind is facing far greater threats to its survival than this minor viral attack.

 

Now where's my 'global warming' banner!

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18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

But it is absolutely right that our governments learnt nothing from the Chinese. I saw a German expert criticise China for effecting the Wuhan lockdown AFTER half the population had left that city, but it's hardly like the US, UK or Germany acted in a decisive fast fashion. By the time they closed the borders to Chinese the virus was already in each of those countries. Too late to close borders.

 

Every country was let down by its government.

Some governments did quite a good job including China after Jan. 21, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.  The rest have been rubbish.

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5 hours ago, AlexRich said:

Older and at risk people need to severely alter their lifestyles for a couple of years, avoiding crowds, for example. 

You are jokin' aren't you? It's just NOT POSSIBLE to avoid it once people realise that sitting at home isn't any way to live and resume normal activities.

Once it becomes endemic in the population, it will be somewhat like the flue, from which thousands die every year.

If anyone thinks all us oldies are going to hide away and watch tv reality shows for 2 years they had better think again. Better to catch it and die than live like that.

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52 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Most experts however say the second wave was more aggressive because of the 1st World War.

 

We are not in a world war now, and we have  respirators, antibiotics, HIV drugs and much else which should mean that the conditions of 1918 will not be replicated.

The more I read on this and previous pandemics, the more complicated it becomes. If we are to make any progress we have to get away from the childish name blame game. Up to 50 million may have died in the "Spanish flu" epidemic. It was only called the Spanish flu because they didn't have wartime reporting restrictions, and told the truth about the extent of the problem first. One of the most likely origins is still - after years of research and numerous papers - considered to be Kansas USA. 

Unless we have brain dead Trumpitis, we should drop the "Wuhan flu, it's all China's fault" line.

 

This is a grim international problem and needs a determined co-operative international adult response. Sadly many international leaders are incapable of doing the adult bit.

 

A Data Scientist relation of mine says that modelling this thing is very simple, and although the detail is way beyond me, the gist is as follows.

population of Europe say 500M

proportion infected to reach herd immunity, or point where vaccination effects infection limitation.

say 60%. 

Proportion of deaths per infection say 1%

Number dead in Europe 3M. (Mainly older people).

 

Well maybe they will call it the boomers comeuppance. No longer will the young have to work all their lives to pay for the inflated pensions that we have awarded ourselves. 

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4 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

2 years of lockdown sounds like hell, on the bright side at least it won't be cold and TVF will be busy 🙂

 

 

2 years lockdown ? might get through Stephen Kings The Stand - or half way anyway

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Posted (edited)

The virus will vanish along with the bluebells.

Edited by evadgib

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Every country was let down by its government.

Sooooo, lets say for the debate that every western government had closed their borders, destroyed the economies even sooner than is happening now, and it turned out to be not as bad as it has. What would citizens be saying about their governments now? I'm sure it wouldn't be complimentary.

Sometimes in a democracy it's just a best guess as to the correct option. I don't blame the government for not acting sooner. It's life and in life <deleted> happens.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Virt said:

I just hope the virus won't mutate into to many strains until we get a vaccine. 

The world is allready looking at a whole lot of pain, when it comes to the economy and lost job. 

This one if affecting us all no matter if we care or not. 

Returning home from Thailand Thursday and looks like I'm returning to some sort of post apocalyptic Europe. 

 

sadly the human race is going the way of the dinosaurs, its been fun kids.  mother nature will win in the end.

Edited by malibukid
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3 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

The more I read on this and previous pandemics, the more complicated it becomes. If we are to make any progress we have to get away from the childish name blame game. Up to 50 million may have died in the "Spanish flu" epidemic. It was only called the Spanish flu because they didn't have wartime reporting restrictions, and told the truth about the extent of the problem first. One of the most likely origins is still - after years of research and numerous papers - considered to be Kansas USA. 

Unless we have brain dead Trumpitis, we should drop the "Wuhan flu, it's all China's fault" line.

 

This is a grim international problem and needs a determined co-operative international adult response. Sadly many international leaders are incapable of doing the adult bit.

 

A Data Scientist relation of mine says that modelling this thing is very simple, and although the detail is way beyond me, the gist is as follows.

population of Europe say 500M

proportion infected to reach herd immunity, or point where vaccination effects infection limitation.

say 60%. 

Proportion of deaths per infection say 1%

Number dead in Europe 3M. (Mainly older people).

 

Well maybe they will call it the boomers comeuppance. No longer will the young have to work all their lives to pay for the inflated pensions that we have awarded ourselves. 

You don't say what you would do, but if they keep destroying society as they are, there won't be much to carry on with after it's over.

I'm for the nuclear option- carry on as normal and let the chips fall where they may, but I accept that that won't be a very popular option.

 

Whatever happens I'm not going to be on a ventilator- my living will forbids me being resuscitated.

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