German institute: Two years for pandemic to run its course

[Logosone]

Yes, SARS had a much higher mortality rate, but we're not dealing with SARS. It is pretty clear that mortality rate with Covid19 is more akin to H1N1 than to SARS.

[Logosone]

8 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

It's based on other coronavirus research. 

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25685

 

Yes, that's what the UK chief medical adviser said as well, that most likely there will be immunity.

 

Of course there are still exceptions to this, as the Japanese reinfection shows. So just pray you're not the exception.

[AussieBob18]

8 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Very scientific! Are your a Trump advisor?

You can make fun out of this over-reaction panic, or you can dover play the seriousness of the matter - all good.

 

But making politics out of it on every occasion is a very sad thing for you to do day after day after day.  Take a break and let that all go for now - we will get back to that later.  Right now we have something either very silly or very serious to deal with.

 

[cmarshall]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, SARS had a much higher mortality rate, but we're not dealing with SARS. It is pretty clear that mortality rate with Covid19 is more akin to H1N1 than to SARS.

Spanish Flu had a mortality now estimated to be from 10% to 20%.  See what I mean?

[ravip]

A Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating an investigational vaccine designed to protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute (KPWHRI) in Seattle. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is funding the trial. KPWHRI is part of NIAID’s Infectious Diseases Clinical Research Consortium. The open-label trial will enroll 45 healthy adult volunteers ages 18 to 55 years over approximately 6 weeks. The first participant received the investigational vaccine today.

The study is evaluating different doses of the experimental vaccine for safety and its ability to induce an immune response in participants. This is the first of multiple steps in the clinical trial process for evaluating the potential benefit of the vaccine.

The vaccine is called mRNA-1273 and was developed by NIAID scientists and their collaborators at the biotechnology company Moderna, Inc., based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) supported the manufacturing of the vaccine candidate for the Phase 1 clinical trial.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins

[cmarshall]

From Phase 1 to FDA-approved is usually years.

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Spanish Flu had a mortality now estimated to be from 10% to 20%.  See what I mean?

No, it was 1-6%.

 

And that only because there was a world war on, which exarcebated transmission.

 

And they did not have all the medicine options available today.

[AussieBob18]

IMO this will be a very silly event, and not a very serious one - 10s of millions will not die IMO. Take care and take precautions as we all should be because I could be wrong - but much of the evidence now emerging is all pointing in the same direction - the  declaration by WHO has caused a massive over-reaction worldwide. 

 

I can understand why WHO did what it did - the 2009 Swine Flu (H1N1) was caught by 700 million and killed about 500K (less than 1%). But it was the 2nd version of the Spanish Flu of 1918 that killed 25 million to 50 million - they dont really know.  WHO thinks it would be better tyop ve safe than sorry - but the truth is it is looking like they over-reacted.  

 

Below is from a respected scientific website: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.

 

Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 (new official name) are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

 

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

 

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). 

 

So when you hear/see talk of death rates being at 3-5%  - keep in mind that such a rate is only of those extremely sick and being tested.  Many people will have nil to mild symptoms and they wont be tested so they are nopt counted. It is very early days and WHO has gone overboard IMO.  In the future it is very likely that this virus will have a much lower rate than 3.4% - as with H1N1 which was also said to be very high death rate but later studies showed it wasnt.

 

Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?

 

The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.  In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. 

 

 

[cmarshall]

8 minutes ago, Logosone said:

No, it was 1-6%.

 

And that only because there was a world war on, which exarcebated transmission.

 

And they did not have all the medicine options available today.

Accepted current estimate of 1918 deaths ranges from 50 million to 100 million at least.  World population was 1.9 billion.  So at the low end estimate of deaths that would be 2.5% of the entire world population even though not everyone was infected by a long shot.  High end estimate would mean 5% of the entire world population.  So, given that infection rates were much below 100%, an estimated mortality rate of 1% to 6% makes no sense.  Infection rates were probably around 25% leading to the 10% to 20% best estimate of mortality.

 

The World War was confined to a narrow slice of France at the time.

Edited March 18, 2020 by cmarshall

[OneMoreFarang]

35 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

You can make fun out of this over-reaction panic, or you can dover play the seriousness of the matter - all good.

 

But making politics out of it on every occasion is a very sad thing for you to do day after day after day.  Take a break and let that all go for now - we will get back to that later.  Right now we have something either very silly or very serious to deal with.

 

It is very serious now. And it was already obvious for the experts that it will be serious.

But there was and is this idiot who didn't want to believe that. He somehow thought he is smarter than the experts and because of him the problem grew faster and bigger. Should we pretend that idiot did all he could? Should we pretend that he behaved like a grown up competent leader? I don't think so. Let's call an idiot an idiot.

[puipuitom]

9 hours ago, swissie said:

2 years? An infection rate of 70% required to immunize enough people to break the cycle?

Great. That would eliminate 30 % of pensioners, thus saving Pension-Funds, Social-Security Concepts in distress from going under.

Perfect, one problem solved.

Merkel said: 60 million ( out of the 80 mln) Germans will get the disease.

The Dutch PM, Mr Rutte, said Monday (at the first broadcastr to the nation in 47 years of a Dutch PM) he expected 60% of all Dutch to get the disease. A Dutch microbiologic Prof at Erasmus Uni and adviser to teh government confirmed: with the present knowledge, 1-2% casualties, so yeas, for NL, that will be a 40-80.000 dead.

When we had a 1000 people officially confirmed, a 120 at intensive care and with a 25 casualties, one head of the gocv. health system estimated, already 6000 Dutch had the disease. 

What I would like to know: how much chance for persons above 70, and how much chance with people with alrerady a lung problem, like me with astma.

So... imagine... just as during the Plague, 1345-1352, a part of the population stayed uneffected, in one country more as in another ( Germanic: less, a 30-50% Roman : more a 60-90%).

So, again, let 30 % be uneffected, 30% real sick and 5% very seriously (1 in every 6), with 0,5% of the entire population to die, but 10 % with a lung problem, 20% elderly and .. 80% with already a lung disease... I will be one of your 30% pensioners to die.

 

Protests ?  When you believe in a God..... and have an address...

 

[cmarshall]

4 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

Merkel said: 60 million ( out of the 80 mln) Germans will get the disease.

The Dutch PM, Mr Rutte, said Monday (at the first broadcastr to the nation in 47 years of a Dutch PM) he expected 60% of all Dutch to get the disease. A Dutch microbiologic Prof at Erasmus Uni and adviser to teh government confirmed: with the present knowledge, 1-2% casualties, so yeas, for NL, that will be a 40-80.000 dead.

When we had a 1000 people officially confirmed, a 120 at intensive care and with a 25 casualties, one head of the gocv. health system estimated, already 6000 Dutch had the disease. 

What I would like to know: how much chance for persons above 70, and how much chance with people with alrerady a lung problem, like me with astma.

So... imagine... just as during the Plague, 1345-1352, a part of the population stayed uneffected, in one country more as in another ( Germanic: less, a 30-50% Roman : more a 60-90%).

So, again, let 30 % be uneffected, 30% real sick and 5% very seriously (1 in every 6), with 0,5% of the entire population to die, but 10 % with a lung problem, 20% elderly and .. 80% with already a lung disease... I will be one of your 30% pensioners to die.

 

Protests ?  When you believe in a God..... and have an address...

 

I have read an estimate that 8% to 9% of people over 80 in the US will die.  However, I suspect your real question is not how likely you are to die, but how to survive.  I can answer that question.  Stay home.  Do not go out for any reason, if at all possible. Limit the people you let in to no more than a few close friends/family.  Order grocery deliveries to your home.  Pay bills online only.  

 

If you can keep to this program you will still be alive asthma and all when it is over sometime between a few months from now and two years or so.  Once you go out that door you will be subject to those percentages you mention.

[puipuitom]

10 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

And where you get that "weak strain" from ? ? 

And I presume, you voluntarily will be one of that top 10% to get this totally experimental injection? 

Always nice to read comments from people, who think to know it better als al microbiologists on this planet together.

[Matzzon]

10 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

Why don´t just use 150% strain on you and create a vaccin out of you? Only glad to contribute, right?

Edited March 18, 2020 by Matzzon

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, Isaanbiker said:

After the initial slow response in Wuhan, they vigorously addressed the epidemic at a national level and successfully slowed it's spread to the rest of the world.  In addition to the direct effect they demonstrated effective measures to control transmission.

 

 

You've got to be kidding!

 

Did you not see the poor Chinese guys who reported on social media such as Youtube on how the government kept quiet about the disease?

 

  Without these bat eating people, there wouldn't be a pandemic that scares the shi_e out of people all around the world.

 

  Anybody who's telling the opposite must be mentally retarded. 

It's China's fault that the other nations were informed way too late with not exact facts. 

No. Anybody who believes anything they see on Youtue must be mentally retarded.

 

The truth will come out, but it wont be Youtube, guaranteed.

[puipuitom]

8 hours ago, LomSak27 said:

These Are the same people who said don't bother with masks. Now masks are not 100 per cent effective but not surprisingly they are effective. And the reason that this health agency and many others in Europe and North America came out with this sage piece of health advice was

. .... Wait for it ... 

 

That did not have enough masks for health workers who needed them. 

Where in Europe you want to get any mask ? The Chinese, being nearly the only mass producer, did not export anything for 2 months. I hope the EU governments ( and others) learnt one thing: strategic goods.. be sure at leat 50% is prduced in your own area / country / EU

See : https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/editienl/artikel/5059491/noodkreet-huisartsen-lever-mondkapjes-corona family docters in Netherlands ask their patients.. if they even have even a dust mask at home... please hand it to your doctor. YOU MIGHT need it next week, next month or maybe even never, but your doctor... needs it TODAY ! 

In Belgium an order of 5 million masks order acceptance was a fake, and the half million to arrive 16th March, only 100.000 arrived, thanks to Alibaba.

[puipuitom]

29 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

I have read an estimate that 8% to 9% of people over 80 in the US will die.  However, I suspect your real question is not how likely you are to die, but how to survive.  I can answer that question.  Stay home.  Do not go out for any reason, if at all possible. Limit the people you let in to no more than a few close friends/family.  Order grocery deliveries to your home.  Pay bills online only.  

 

If you can keep to this program you will still be alive asthma and all when it is over sometime between a few months from now and two years or so.  Once you go out that door you will be subject to those percentages you mention.

My hope is to end up at the end of the infection line, with already a succesful anti-medicine to work. To stay forever out of the line to be infected.... how long ever I stay at home... does not work.

Pity.

Remind the Columbus exchange: 90-95 % of all indiands died, not by the diseases itsself, but.. because nobody to go for hunt to bring "food on the table". ( De Sosa in what is now Luisiana and around ) 

Edited March 18, 2020 by puipuitom

[puipuitom]

The REAL worry should be th USA, where a 30 million people cannot afford to stay away from work, as they need the income to survive. Have no medical insurance, so.. will continue to spread the disease till they die.

In Europe, no one shall be without money to survive, nobody has no medical support. 

 

Why the USA did not set this up ?  Why rediculous fees are charged at level the max a market can bear ( US$ 0,5 million for a helicopter rescue, US$ 10.000 for an ambulance trip, US$ 5 to the pationt, but US$ 500 to his employer) and a medical insurance twice the amount as at average in Europe ? ? Ask the US politicians + voters for at least the last 50 years.

[ravip]

Just now, Traubert said:

No. Anybody who believes anything they see on Youtue must be mentally retarded.

 

The truth will come out, but it wont be Youtube, guaranteed.

Strange but true. Millions rely 100% on youtube, FB and the internet!

[AussieBob18]

54 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It is very serious now. And it was already obvious for the experts that it will be serious.

But there was and is this idiot who didn't want to believe that. He somehow thought he is smarter than the experts and because of him the problem grew faster and bigger. Should we pretend that idiot did all he could? Should we pretend that he behaved like a grown up competent leader? I don't think so. Let's call an idiot an idiot.

As the great James Woods says #Instablock 

[Dap]

9 hours ago, Tayaout said:

There is some evidence that suggest immunity only last about a year. 

How is that even possible when the world has only been aware of the coronavirus for about 4 months (over est.) max 

[justin case]

haha, 2 years, wow

 

and then a vaccine that works as good as the FLU vaccine, aka NOT

 

vaccine, vaccine

 

not a word about intravenous vitamin C that China is been testing with

 

we are not talking 1 x 500 mg but 30-100 grams in IV per day

[justin case]

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

The REAL worry should be th USA, where a 30 million people cannot afford to stay away from work, as they need the income to survive. Have no medical insurance, so.. will continue to spread the disease till they die.

In Europe, no one shall be without money to survive, nobody has no medical support. 

 

Why the USA did not set this up ?  Why rediculous fees are charged at level the max a market can bear ( US$ 0,5 million for a helicopter rescue, US$ 10.000 for an ambulance trip, US$ 5 to the pationt, but US$ 500 to his employer) and a medical insurance twice the amount as at average in Europe ? ? Ask the US politicians + voters for at least the last 50 years.

because USA needed 1000's of nuclear warheads, never to be used, same as ex-USSR that bankrupted both nations instead of investing in a dirty SOCIAL (for everyone) healthcare

 

and off course a big strong army to play policemen of the world, costing trillions

 

know your priorities

[Matzzon]

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

No. Anybody who believes anything they see on Youtue must be mentally retarded.

 

The truth will come out, but it wont be Youtube, guaranteed.

So, if you do not trust Yuotube, that´s one thing. I just wonder if you seen all the articles online from trusted sources that focus on that the virus originates from bats?

[GeorgeCross]

Quote

World health officials say the respiratory disease spreads through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing as well as germs left on inanimate objects. The coronavirus can go airborne, staying suspended in the air depending on factors such as heat and humidity, they said.

 

Health officials use the information to make sure WHO’s guidance is appropriate, and “so far ... we are confident that the guidance that we have is appropriate,” she added. Health officials recommend medical staff wear so-called N95 masks because they filter out about 95% of all liquid or airborne particles.

 

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html

 

can we put the "masks are useless" myth to bed now please.

 

truth is their isn't enough masks for the populations of first world countries so to prevent panic a narrative was spun, a narrative many believed but which is fundamentally flawed. anyone with half a brain would have noticed that everyone who works for a government has a mask on! be it doctors, nurses, police, army, hell even the dudes spraying disinfectant around have them on

 

wake up, they are not wearing them for fashion, they work

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by GeorgeCross

[wabothai]

12 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Inject everyone with a weak strain say 10% of the top. Build up basic immunity.

"people need to return to normal"

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, puipuitom said:

The REAL worry should be th USA, where a 30 million people cannot afford to stay away from work, as they need the income to survive. Have no medical insurance, so.. will continue to spread the disease till they die.

In Europe, no one shall be without money to survive, nobody has no medical support. 

 

Why the USA did not set this up ?  Why rediculous fees are charged at level the max a market can bear ( US$ 0,5 million for a helicopter rescue, US$ 10.000 for an ambulance trip, US$ 5 to the pationt, but US$ 500 to his employer) and a medical insurance twice the amount as at average in Europe ? ? Ask the US politicians + voters for at least the last 50 years.

Even if meds are discovered that can dispatch COVID quickly, this epidemic should wake up Americans to how dangerous Trump is to healthcare in this country. He's just one Supreme Court justice away from getting rid of protection for people with preexisting conditions. And it may even happen with the court he's got now. That's going to be a very potent and scary issue for Americans. Even more powerful than it was in 2018.

[shy coconut]

12 hours ago, soalbundy said:

except that there have been several cases where people have caught it twice after recovering from the first illness, this is going to be like the flu, no real immunity, like the flu, corona will mutate slightly every year making a vaccine less effective.

Have these people been tested initially, positive, tested again, negative and then

tested positive once again?

 

I would love to know how one group of people can be tested 3 times when

99.9 % of the world's population haven't been tested once.

[PhonThong]

15 hours ago, puipuitom said:

The REAL worry should be th USA, where a 30 million people cannot afford to stay away from work, as they need the income to survive. Have no medical insurance, so.. will continue to spread the disease till they die.

In Europe, no one shall be without money to survive, nobody has no medical support. 

 

Why the USA did not set this up ?  Why rediculous fees are charged at level the max a market can bear ( US$ 0,5 million for a helicopter rescue, US$ 10.000 for an ambulance trip, US$ 5 to the pationt, but US$ 500 to his employer) and a medical insurance twice the amount as at average in Europe ? ? Ask the US politicians + voters for at least the last 50 years.

Not my job to pay for someone else's medical care. When they stop giving free medical care to illegals, then maybe I will have a change of heart. Illegals getting free medical care while veterans are living on the streets is just not acceptable.

[ThaiBunny]

3 minutes ago, PhonThong said:

Not my job to pay for someone else's medical care

So you don't have health insurance then? That's all it is - everyone paying for the few who need it