Officials forecast 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Thailand

[webfact]

Officials forecast 400,000 COVID-19 cases in Thailand

 

FILE PHOTO: Commuters wearing protective masks walk inside the Skytrain BTS in Bangkok, Thailand February 24, 2020. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa

 

Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus, COVID-19, by the end of next year.

 

According to the Emergency Response Center of the Department of Disease Control, Thailand has used data from China, Canada, Hungary, Sweden and the World Health Organization, as well as data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, to try and predict how many people will become infected with the virus.

 

Officials are working on three scenarios. 

 

The first scenario, which health officials believe is most likely, is that up to 400,000 people will become infected with the virus by the end of 2020 and that after an initial spike in cases, the number of infections will settle, with the virus becoming a seasonal disease like common influenza. This prediction is based on each infected person going on to infect a further 1.6 people. 

 

The second scenario estimates as many as 9.9 million people infected with the virus by the end of 2020, with cases peaking between Thailand’s cool period - next January and February. 

 

The third scenario, deemed to be the worst case scenario and the one which officials believe is least likely to occur, is that as many as 16 million people will be infected with the coronavirus by the end of next year.

 

Health officials say across all predictions, the number of critical COVID-19 cases is around 5 percent of those infected, while the mortality rate is around 2 percent. 

 

Officials also stress that the number of predicted cases will be greatly reduced if the public adhere to the preventive measures put in place by the government to help reduce the spread of the virus.

 

On Tuesday, the Thai government announced that all schools and entertainment venues will close in Bangkok and neighbouring provinces. Pattaya and Phuket have also announced that its bars, nightclubs and entertainment venues will be closed until 31 March.

 

Meanwhile, screening has been stepped up at border points nationwide, with foreign tourists required to show a medical certificate to prove they do not have COVID-19, as well as proof they have medical insurance. They will also be asked to download a mobile app so they can be monitored after arriving in the country. 

 

While the Thai government has placed no restrictions on travel within the country, and restaurants, supermarkets and convenience stores remain open, people are urged to undertake so-called ‘social distancing’ by keeping a distance of at least 1 metre between themselves and others when outside, especially from those coughing or sneezing. 

 

People are also urged to wear a face mask when outside and regularly wash their hands with soap and water and an alcohol based hand sanitizer.

 

Sources: Thansettaki | ThaiPBS

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-03-18

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[zydeco]

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

[ianezy0]

People are also urged to wear a face mask when outside.......

 

Back to this old chestnut again!

[VocalNeal]

I think it is safe to say that we will all get it in one from or another. Eventually. just like any other strain of flu.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

Too many.

 

Still, nice to see a realistic number in the context of TL. So much for goverment hopes of keeping the real number a state secret. 15 cases my sweet bippy.

 

 

[dukeandduke]

32 minutes ago, ianezy0 said:

People are also urged to wear a face mask when outside.......

 

Back to this old chestnut again!

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

[DLock]

And if it hits 4% death rate as it is now, that will be 16,000 deaths...

 

Not bad for "all under control".

[KhunKenAP]

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

[sweatalot]

47 minutes ago, webfact said:

Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus,

if they start real diagnosing and true reporting probably much earlier

[smiggley]

16000 deaths should be acceptable after all that is less than the current road deaths.

[4MyEgo]

I just hope those farangs who can afford private health and don't have it, get some real soon.

[rvaviator]

14 minutes ago, dukeandduke said:

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

Not the doctors in China ....   Yes medical workers must have masks (first) .. and they work with a bit more than just masks ..  I assume you have seen the YouTube videos from China hospitals ..

[Jingthing]

How can people get a certificate that they don't have it?!? 

 

Tests are not on demand. They are only for people with either symptoms or an obvious direct exposure. 

 

They may as well just totally ban entries from their blacklist nations. 

 

Ironically Thailand will be on many lists as well. 

[Jingthing]

13 minutes ago, KhunKenAP said:

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

And anyone that believed that I'm selling a bridge cheap. 

[Isaanbiker]

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

Most government hospitals do not have rooms to separate patients with contagious diseases.

 

And way too many patients from Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and other countries.

 

They already use all floors, how should they be able to separate them? Impossible, in my eyes. 

 

A German friend passed away after a heart attack.

 

The cause of death was various lung infections that he'd gotten from other patients in the ICU.

We had him in a single room, but when his health got worse, they had to bring him back to the main ICU with all the diseased people.

The hospital was the Sapphasit in Ubon Ratchathani. 

 

I need to stop reading news about the virus for a while. Time to do some urgently needed stuff. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Isaanbiker

[TheAppletons]

58 minutes ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

5-10%, based upon data compiled to date from worldwide cases.  So 20,000-40,000 ICU patients.  

[Rimmer]

Off topic and reply removed

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Health officials in Thailand have forecast that at least 400,000 people may be diagnosed with the coronavirus, COVID-19, by the end of next year.

Sure bet the 3 farang with it get accused of giving it to 399,997 !

[Thailand]

Finally. Maybe the government can now confirm they have been lying from day one. 

Probably not.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, dukeandduke said:

Wonderful.  "Officials" say this.  As opposed to all of the doctors who say otherwise, unless you're sick, a health care worker, etc.

Well, look at it from their POV. They have no clues. It's like a drowning man clutching at straws. and assuming (probably rightly), that the proletariat are just too dim to know any different. One of the advantages of keeping them poor and uneducated; they'll believe pretty much anything.

 

Just wait for the folk magic to start: A dead person riding in on a celestial white chariot to slay the Covid-19 dragon and save the Nation..

 

Wait and see.

 

 

[chricha]

13 minutes ago, Isaanbiker said:

Most government hospitals do not have rooms to separate patients with contagious diseases.

 

And way too many patients from Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and other countries.

 

They already use all floors, how should they be able to separate them? Impossible, in my eyes. 

 

A German friend passed away after a heart attack.

 

The cause of death was various lung infections that he'd gotten from other patients in the ICU.

We had him in a single room, but when his health got worse, they had to bring him back to the main ICU with all the diseased people.

The hospital was the Sapphasit in Ubon Ratchathani. 

 

I need to stop reading news about the virus for a while. Time to do some urgently needed stuff. 

Sorry to hear about the death of your friend in hospital. But I have to pass comment based on my experience of hospitals in Thailand

I have had an operation in Pitsanevuj private hospital in Phitsanulok and had a wonderful  experience.

I had the best medical treatment and my son was born there as well in August 2019.

In January 2020, I was admitted to Khao Kho public hospital as a result on marijuana overdose.

I took too many big tokes after years of abstinence ????

After initial tests I was wheeled up a ramp to the ward and was surrounded by 7 other beds with sick Thai patients.

I was not really sick - Gott sei dank - and I checked out as fast as I could as I could feel the bacteria and viruses pinging my force field!

You would not survive a week if ill with COVID19 in a government hospital IMHO

Edited March 18, 2020 by chricha

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, VocalNeal said:

I think it is safe to say that we will all get it in one from or another. Eventually. just like any other strain of flu.

Yes probably there will be massive global infection. But it's not just another strain of flu. The fatality rate from it is at least 10 times normal seasonal flu. This is much more like the 1918 plague flu than a normal seasonal flu.

 

If I sound matter of fact about this, well I was living in San Francisco when the HIV virus peaked before people even knew what it was and people were dropping like flies. 

 

That virus is hard to get and fairly easy to prevent once you know the facts.

 

This one is super easy to get and no amount of hand washing is really going to stop it. We can slow it though. 

 

Viruses don't have passports.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Finally. Maybe the government can now confirm they have been lying from day one. 

Probably not.

Definitely not. That's not how most governments roll.

 

However, I think people should be seeing this as good news in the sense that the authorities here are FINALLY facing the seriousness of this.

 

But it would have been much better news if they had done that months ago.

 

It's a quite similar situation to the USA but with many specific differences as well. 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

How many required ICU beds does this translate into?

 

Based on the 10 million infections and 5% needing critical support about 50,000 by my dodgy calculations.

[NCC1701A]

but but but the experts on this forum said this would not happen in Thailand.

 

i was specificity assured this would not happen. 

 

something about it being too hot. 

 

WEAR A MASK

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, KhunKenAP said:

Hold On! The General told us in January the situation is 100% under control. 

 

He lied. Or he straight up didn't have a clue what he was talking about. So either he was ignorant or dishonest. Either way, TL loses.

 

Big surprise.

[Chazar]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

This prediction is based on each infected person going on to infect a further 1.6 people. 

I  thought that  number was 4?

[Chazar]

3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

but but but the experts on this forum said this would not happen in Thailand.

 

i was specificity assured this would not happen. 

 

something about it being too hot. 

 

WEAR A MASK

DONT WEAR  A  MASK

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, NCC1701A said:

but but but the experts on this forum said this would not happen in Thailand.

 

i was specificity assured this would not happen. 

 

something about it being too hot. 

 

WEAR A MASK

It was a hopeful theory especially about heat suppressing it. Understandable that people would hope.

 

On the mask thing, well, I have been on the anti-mask team but there is a good reason to wear masks. They don't protect the wearer but they are definitely needed if you have symptoms. However if you don't have symptoms you may still be infected and this could infect others. So that is a reason to wear a mask -- to help protect others just in case. So maybe people really should wear masks. If the government here is pushing it, there is going to be a lot of social pressure to do so anyway.

[NCC1701A]

Just now, Chazar said:

DONT WEAR  A  MASK

why are you doing this?