Jump to content
BANGKOK
techietraveller84

What (ethical) ideas are people talking about for profiting off the current crisis?

Recommended Posts

This COVID-19 crisis is scary, especially for biz owners and those considering starting a businesses.

 

But in most disasters, some people come out better off than before.

 

Other than setting up a toilet paper factory at home, what ideas are you hearing about, or do you think would work, for turning this horribly sour lemon into lemonade?

 

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/11/21174720/coronavirus-amazon-robots-air-purifiers

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, timendres said:

None of these "investments" are cheap enough yet, in my opinion. We've got a lot farther to go. Rushing into this fire is a fool's move. I recommend keeping your powder dry for at least 3 to 6 months until the extent of this pandemic becomes clear. The economic ripples have just started. They have a long way to go.


Very hard to judge these things, but the current thesis I'm betting my money on is that the markets react to sudden events by guessing the worst case scenario based on the little information they initially have available. Then, as more information flows in, a consensus emerges that more closely reflects the likely reality, and reality rarely matches the worst case scenario. So, you pretty much always get a boost to prices, with the exception of the clear losers (cruiselines etc).

It is not healthy to worry too much about getting the absolute lowest possible price, you'll just drive yourself crazy. During the last big crash, a friend had around $200K to invest from a house sale. As an owner of the first iPhone (which was not a huge seller) I was convinced that Apple were really on to something. As the stock price smashed down through 100 and plummeted on past 90, 80, 70, 60, I urged my friend to buy, but he was scared to jump in because the price might keep dropping, meaning he would "lose" money. Then, the next day, the price rose back past 70 and he still wouldn't buy because he didn't want to pay more than it had been just yesterday. I felt like smacking my head off the wall. Or maybe his.

"Listen to me: ANY price below 100 is a bargain, just pull the trigger. Once we leave this territory, that's it, this won't happen again" I said but, by then, he was paralyzed. He came to his senses a few days later at around 140. It was still a good move. When you include dividends, currency fluctuations, and the 7-to-1 stock split in 2014, he made around 20 times his money over ten years, despite paying double what he could have on the initial drop.

So, yes, the market may well dip further, but there is no way to predict exactly when or how far. Unless you want to become a day trader, watched every movement, it makes more sense to just recognize that the prices we have right now are a big enough discount on what the prices will be in a year's time.

For this stage of the crash, I'm all in on Bitcoin and Ethereum because, being naturally more volatile, they will bounce back up far faster than the stocks, so better to grabs gain there over the next month or so before converting into stocks for the long haul. If anyone took my advice when I posted yesterday in another thread here yesterday, they would already be up 20%, whereas stocks are still finding their footing.

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best place to be is cash USD.

 

If you could get hold of 100% pure alcohol in any large quantity I would imagine you could make 150% on handgel and still undercut competition.

 

Buying handwash 70% in large bottles and selling online in smaller qtys

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Digital nomads in demand now and the future.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has the price of Oil bottomed out if so that looks a good bet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just buy the whole US stock market through an index fund.  The US economy will recover and buying it now is cheap.  Or wait.  The virus hasn't peaked yet, so the market hasn't bottomed yet, although trying to time the actual bottom is always dicey.  

 

There is now more analysis showing that coronavirus displays seasonality.  If this research holds up to scrutiny it may mean that the virus may soon dissipate as the US warms up in April and May.  Here's the abstract

 

This theory would also explain the absence of community spread in Thailand, although other explanations are also possible.

 

Temperature, Humidity and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

Abstract

Background: A significant number of infectious diseases display seasonal patterns in their incidence, including human coronaviruses. Betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV are not thought to be seasonal.

Methods: We examined climate data from cities with significant community spread of COVID-19 using ERA-5 reanalysis, and compared to areas that are either not affected, or do not have significant community spread.

Findings: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel.

Interpretation: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

Edited by cmarshall
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Timing" the market is extremely difficult.  Persons who claim to do it, or have done it, have actually benefited from luck, rather than judgement. 

 

Time in the market is a much better bet over the long haul and doesn't require any special skills.  Those who climbed into stocks during the market crash of 2008, and held their positions, are still showing a return of 2-3 times their original investments, despite the huge falls of late.

 

Theorising doesn't enrich anyone.  Kipling said it best in "If", "if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs" . . .   It takes clear thinking, and ACTION, in times like these.  If history repeats itself, one will be rewarded handsomely in the future,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have a careful and long look at the stock exchanges around the globe. There are shares out there, massively underpriced at the moment, which have real substance. You might have to wait some time to see the share going back to where it fell from two, three weeks ago though. Keep away from companies not producing anything and do it only with money you could, worst case scenario, lose. Inmidst of difficulties lies opportunity ......... 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been shorting gold and especially GBP, and made $h!t load of money😁 thanks to GBP becoming worthless, literally made months worth of profits in just a few days hehe

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, donnacha said:


Very hard to judge these things, but the current thesis I'm betting my money on is that the markets react to sudden events by guessing the worst case scenario based on the little information they initially have available. Then, as more information flows in, a consensus emerges that more closely reflects the likely reality, and reality rarely matches the worst case scenario. So, you pretty much always get a boost to prices, with the exception of the clear losers (cruiselines etc).

It is not healthy to worry too much about getting the absolute lowest possible price, you'll just drive yourself crazy. During the last big crash, a friend had around $200K to invest from a house sale. As an owner of the first iPhone (which was not a huge seller) I was convinced that Apple were really on to something. As the stock price smashed down through 100 and plummeted on past 90, 80, 70, 60, I urged my friend to buy, but he was scared to jump in because the price might keep dropping, meaning he would "lose" money. Then, the next day, the price rose back past 70 and he still wouldn't buy because he didn't want to pay more than it had been just yesterday. I felt like smacking my head off the wall. Or maybe his.

"Listen to me: ANY price below 100 is a bargain, just pull the trigger. Once we leave this territory, that's it, this won't happen again" I said but, by then, he was paralyzed. He came to his senses a few days later at around 140. It was still a good move. When you include dividends, currency fluctuations, and the 7-to-1 stock split in 2014, he made around 20 times his money over ten years, despite paying double what he could have on the initial drop.

So, yes, the market may well dip further, but there is no way to predict exactly when or how far. Unless you want to become a day trader, watched every movement, it makes more sense to just recognize that the prices we have right now are a big enough discount on what the prices will be in a year's time.

For this stage of the crash, I'm all in on Bitcoin and Ethereum because, being naturally more volatile, they will bounce back up far faster than the stocks, so better to grabs gain there over the next month or so before converting into stocks for the long haul. If anyone took my advice when I posted yesterday in another thread here yesterday, they would already be up 20%, whereas stocks are still finding their footing.

 

 

Ha! Yes. My eldest Son will never forgive me for having bought Apple in the 90s and selling when Steve Jobs was relived of command. I could be retired  ... wait, I am retired. oK, I could have been retired much more comfortably! I bought a handful of Apple shares at $150.00 not too long ago ... yep. Again should have bought substantially more.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find it a lot more than sick, if people want to make a profit from others misery.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...