Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

[Dukeleto]

If your taking bets I’ll put everything I own on it conservatively trebling that figure by the end of April. Of course you could slow or stop testing to arrive under that figure but the fact will remain this is going to spread like a bush fire and there is not much anyone can do about it unfortunately as that time has already passed and the failure of this government and every other government to act when it should have was 3 months ago this virus would have already stopped. Leaving borders open with a wait and see was the mistake and I for one said it. Suck it up initially and get back to normal quicker which was only common sense after all.

[madmitch]

31 minutes ago, lamyai3 said:

A hundred a day, 30 days in April. He just worked it out on the calculator.

And he forgot to add the existing cases.

 

3,000 is more likely to be reached this time next week.

[orang37]

2 hours ago, Timwin said:

Tropical weather is lowering the R0 a lot. Otherwise Thailand with 5 times more Chinese tourists than Italy per year would have been a lot worse a month ago already. Coronavirus family seasonality:

Scientific evidence for Thailand weather lowering R0 ? 

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

 

Quote

 

From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather.

 

 

How do you know that Thailand is not "worse" ? You believe cases here are fully reported, or recognized, or large-scale testing has been done ?

 

~o:37;

Edited March 27, 2020 by orang37
memory recovered after alien abduction

[ftpjtm]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

You're assuming that Thailand's testing capacity will increase exponentially, which it won't. 

 

Sadly the bulk of deaths will occur amomg the elderly at home in rural areas, and will not register in any official statistics. 

[DrTuner]

Diagnosed cases yes. For real situation add a couple of zeroes.

[Ventenio]

CALL ME CRAZY....

 

I'm actually thinking most of us got this last year.  The dry cough, flu.....so most Thais got it as well.

 

we thought it was from pollution.  it wasn't.

 

About a year ago.....   don't be the house on this logic.  lol

Edited March 27, 2020 by Ventenio

[wensiensheng]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

You are right of course, but consider this. If there are 50,000 cases as you say, of which, say, 5,000 become severe and are tested, then the number of cases is 5,000. 
 

in other words, the number of cases can never exceed the number of tests. The remainder are the unknown.

[radjag]

Chinese tourists from Wuhan are said to have brought the virus to Thailand back in early January, just before CNY. This might be called the "first wave". Despite that, the number of infections/deaths have, so far, been relatively minor and the authorities are now saying that the recent rapid escalation is primarily due to the "second wave" brought by returnees from Europe, etc., to Thailand.

 

But in any case the amount of reliable testing has, so far, been very limited and other countries have already identified that probably 60%+ of infections do not cause the carriers to exhibit serious symptoms and go completely undetected - but they are infectious. Nobody knows the real number of infections in Thailand, nor do they know how deadly the virus might be.

[ebean001]

thailand is better off than USA were the president fired the pandemic team because a man of color (Obama) organized it. Racism by the USA president has cost 1000s of lives...we must all know that. 

Everything i read shows thailand is very much in control. they can stop it if you help by doing what is right. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by ebean001

[DeeMak9]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

Yes. 3000 is wishful thinking. However the R0 is greatly reduced with widespread face mask wearing, social distancing and perhaps, but not proven yet, warm weather. So it might not grow this fast.

Edited March 27, 2020 by DeeMak9

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

And that is if the improbable current figures are taken as true.

Truth is nobody has any idea of the current scale of the pandemic in Thailand or how many people will end up infected.

[jasonsamui55]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

I think those numbers seem overly optimistic.  Look at America where cases are doubling every 3-4 days and they actually have millions of free tests available almost everywhere now and full lockdowns in most states. That's what scares me the most.

[RJRS1301]

22 minutes ago, justaphase said:

Umm, when it takes hold the number of infections will double every 3 days. Thailand is about 2 weeks behind the UK. They're just hitting 10,000, and the UK is 2 weeks behind Italy.

I've been following this since Jan 10th, can't anyone see the severity?

Contagion high, mortality mostly older folk, who generally will have comorbidites(cardiac, diabetes,eneral lower immunity) , currently most exposed will recover seems that rate is around 95% or higher, depending on several factors.

Mortality rate higher in Italy as they have a much older population (percentage wise) compared with other western countries

 

Italy

Age structure:

0-14 years: 13.6% (male 4,326,862 /female 4,136,562)

15-24 years: 9.61% (male 2,994,651 /female 2,984,172)

25-54 years: 41.82% (male 12,845,442 /female 13,183,240)

55-64 years: 13.29% (male 4,012,640 /female 4,261,956)

65 years and over: 21.69% (male 5,817,819 /female 7,683,330) (2018 est.)

 

sUSA

Age structure:

0-14 years: 18.62% (male 31,329,121 /female 29,984,705)

15-24 years: 13.12% (male 22,119,340 /female 21,082,599)

25-54 years: 39.29% (male 64,858,646 /female 64,496,889)

55-64 years: 12.94% (male 20,578,432 /female 22,040,267)

65 years and over: 16.03% (male 23,489,515 /female 29,276,951) (2018 est.)

 

[Boomer6969]

2 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

This isn't exponential either, it is a simple ax² function. Exponential would be a^x. We'd be dead soon. 

High school 6 maths were I come from. But that was 50 years ago as far as I am concerned.

[Wonderboy]

13 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

CALL ME CRAZY....

 

I'm actually thinking most of us got this last year.  The dry cough, flu.....so most Thais got it as well.

 

Guess it is just wishful thinking, but must admit I been thinking along those lines as well.. 

[mike787]

Guaranteed!!!

[joecoolfrog]

3 hours ago, stuhan said:

I think 9000 by mid to end april if it continues, but i prey it does not come to that.

It would be a miracle if there were only 9000 cases by the end of April. There well may be more than that already ( without wholesale testing its purely guesswork ).

Why would you even worry about 9000 , most countries would love to keep infections so low.

 

 

[tomster]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

 

Thailand had more inbound tourists from Wuhan than any other country in the World when the infection was raging there.

 

Think that there may need to be just a tad more testing to get the true numbers of infections.

[Misty]

1 hour ago, MaiDong said:

I remember when a Thai Scientist came forward and pronounced that Thailand would suffer(marginally) less than some other nations with rising sea levels. He turned out to be correct, despite many comments of derision - including mine.

 

So let's give this fella a chance, shall we? As others have said, the temperature here could help prevent the spread, the amount of people wearing facemasks could help prevent the spread too, as in Italy I don't believe many wore masks in the early stages?...

 

Anyhow, don't we all WANT him to be right in his conservative estimate? Or even overestimating the numbers?

How many get the virus depends a lot on how closely people follow physical distancing now, as well as how widely the government tests and makes results public (so that clusters can be contained).  So I'm not sure we can predict a number at a certain time - should be a range of possible outcomes.  And as others have pointed out, I'm not sure we have accurate numbers for where Thailand is right now.

 

[Boomer6969]

2 minutes ago, RJRS1301 said:

Contagion high, mortality mostly older folk, who generally will have comorbidites(cardiac, diabetes,eneral lower immunity) , currently most exposed will recover seems that rate is around 95% or higher, depending on several factors.

Mortality rate higher in Italy as they have a much older population (percentage wise) compared with other western countries

 

Italy

Age structure:

0-14 years: 13.6% (male 4,326,862 /female 4,136,562)

15-24 years: 9.61% (male 2,994,651 /female 2,984,172)

25-54 years: 41.82% (male 12,845,442 /female 13,183,240)

55-64 years: 13.29% (male 4,012,640 /female 4,261,956)

65 years and over: 21.69% (male 5,817,819 /female 7,683,330) (2018 est.)

 

sUSA

Age structure:

0-14 years: 18.62% (male 31,329,121 /female 29,984,705)

15-24 years: 13.12% (male 22,119,340 /female 21,082,599)

25-54 years: 39.29% (male 64,858,646 /female 64,496,889)

55-64 years: 12.94% (male 20,578,432 /female 22,040,267)

65 years and over: 16.03% (male 23,489,515 /female 29,276,951) (2018 est.)

 

Russia and Thailand, for instance have life expectancies that are even lower than in the US, which could explain to some extent why the infection can proceed silently with fewer deaths in these two countries. I think the whole problem is to assess the impact of the virus crisis in terms of reduced life expectancy, which may end up being of only a few months. In years coming historians might write that the virus has reduced the global life expectancy by a couple of years, while the subsequent collapse of the economy reduced it by a couple of years.

[joecoolfrog]

1 hour ago, pjuk said:

I think he means the end of March.

 

Was possibly close at the end of feb.

[Skallywag]

5 minutes ago, tomster said:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html

 

Thailand had more inbound tourists from Wuhan than any other country in the World when the infection was raging there.

 

Think that there may need to be just a tad more testing to get the true numbers of infections.

We would all have had the CV by now if we were infected by the Chinese visitors last month....Tour buses from China were halted early February

[Tarteso]

 NOT believe a word... come on to the real world!.

[justaphase]

I'm going with the "we've all got it already" thing, and it's just hanging around.

I've had a sore throat for weeks but my temp is just half a degree up and i feel great...for 48

[Misty]

13 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

Russia and Thailand, for instance have life expectancies that are even lower than in the US, which could explain to some extent why the infection can proceed silently with fewer deaths in these two countries. I think the whole problem is to assess the impact of the virus crisis in terms of reduced life expectancy, which may end up being of only a few months. In years coming historians might write that the virus has reduced the global life expectancy by a couple of years, while the subsequent collapse of the economy reduced it by a couple of years.

True, although Russia remains in the top 3 countries in the world for the lung disease tuberculosis.  (India, China, then Russia).  So Russia may generally have younger, but less well, people.

 

[joecoolfrog]

7 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

We would all have had the CV by now if we were infected by the Chinese visitors last month....Tour buses from China were halted early February

How would you know , how many of you or your friends have actually been tested. Bear in mind that many people will display no or very mild symptoms.

[joecoolfrog]

1 hour ago, smudger1951 said:

Whatever the projected number of infections and deaths, I just want accurate stats.

Only possible by wholesale testing.

[SymS]

3 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

Another person who doesn't understand exponential spread.

 

The infections double every six days (or less) depending upon what measures are taken in a particular country.  (In the USA, it's been every 3-4 days.)

 

Thailand will have in excess of 50,000 cases by the end of April if cases double every six days.   

Just a few days ago, almost nobody wore masks in my area, but this morning I went to the market, and everybody was wearing a mask, so hopefully it can be somewhat contained.

[Rimmer]

A post dragging Mr Trump into the topic has been removed.

 

A post in giant bold fonts has been removed also replies. If you wish your post to stay up do not post in this manner

[Boedog]

When will the Thais realize silence is a form of intelligence, today they have 1045 cases, we have been told it doubles every 3 to 4 days so just on those figures the number will be closer to 260,000 infected, but history shows when it comes to numbers and figures they can't help themselves, and because like every other rule and law in Thailand they don't apply God help you