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Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

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1) People that don't understand math shouldn't be in positions like this.

2) they're still not testing a lot of people, I'm sure there are more than 3,000 already.

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46 minutes ago, Boomer6969 said:

This isn't exponential either, it is a simple ax2 function. Exponential would be ax. We'd be dead soon. 

High school 6 maths were I come from. But that was 50 years ago as far as I am concerned.

The models are a bit more complex than that. Feel free to play around with this one, the SEIR model: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

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6 hours ago, webfact said:

COVID-19 infections will increase to about 3,000 by the end of April

I think there he's confused his months. The way everyone in Bangkok scattered throughout Thailand from the bus stations last week, I believe he means 3,000 by the end of March

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3000 only????? That would be amazing. My bet is it will be between 10,000 and 20,000

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6 hours ago, flyingtlger said:

Wishful thinking....There'll be a lot more than 3000.

 

 

...i agree..what a clever klutz he is, being able to multiply 30 x 100 and get 3,000..but he forgot to add on the 1,000..and then they probably left of two more zeroes at the end.

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16 minutes ago, SymS said:

Just a few days ago, almost nobody wore masks in my area, but this morning I went to the market, and everybody was wearing a mask, so hopefully it can be somewhat contained.

It doesn't need to be contained, it needs to be carefully monitored for mutations and allowed to spread to people that won't die to allow them get immunity, in the same way that most other viruses that we get every year do. When RO1 is reached (infects less than one person per infected person), it will start to go away.

 

Keeping older and vulnerable people locked up at times of serious flu outbreaks is good practice and common sense as there isn't a vaccine yet - there is no need to crash economies and lock populations down unless the virus could wipe out loads of people that wouldn't be dyng anyway.

 

This virus is clearly not that serious - the ridiculous 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is fiction, more and more data now says it's less than 1%, probably way less:

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

 

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The effect of Thailand's heat and humidity on transmission of the virus, together with the partial lockdown which was enacted relatively early compared with western countries (and which will be extended to a full one, if need be), should prevent us from becoming another Spain or Italy. Just how bad it will get, though, before things start to improve is anybody's guess. Let's hope it peaks soon and things can start getting back to normal in a month or so.

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4 hours ago, PatOngo said:

Thailand’s COVID-19 cases might reach 3,000 by end of April

I trust TAT will be handling the books!

Are they using the same calculator?

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21 minutes ago, ian007 said:

3000 only????? That would be amazing. My bet is it will be between 10,000 and 20,000

Is there any betting sites where we can place such bets? I'd like to see what the market makers would say. I'd place a bet too!

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One reason that infection rates in Thailand and other SE Asian countries may turn out to be lower than in some other countries may be cultural. E.O.Wilson would argue that cultural traits such as wai-ing, not touching of heads, limited physical contact in public, removal of shoes when entering houses, frequent bathing etc, that we see throughout Thailand and the neighbouring countries may have been selected for at the community level, through the viral epidemics that have been routinely emerging in SE Asia and Southern China for 1,000's of years. 

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One would expect that the infection rate would be exponential, but I would think that the important thing is to realize it is just a flu, basically ! In previous years, at a certain time of the year, a flu would sweep through Pattaya and many people would catch it, myself included. As soon as it was down the throat and into the lungs I would be off to the pharmacy to get some antibiotics, which did work but took around 5 days. Last time it went through, I decided to try something different. A half a lemon, skin and all (VERY important, it,s all in the skin !) in a blender until completely mashed, pour into large glass, add honey to make it palatable (it,s revolting otherwise), top up with hot water, and the results were amazing. Much better and more effective than taking any pills 🙂

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25 minutes ago, tomster said:

the ridiculous 3.4% mortality rate from the WHO is fiction,

"Criminal intent" would be the phrase I would use.

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3 hours ago, Timwin said:

 

Tropical weather is lowering the R0 a lot. Otherwise Thailand with 5 times more Chinese tourists than Italy per year would have been a lot worse a month ago already. Coronavirus family seasonality:

 

 

 

coronaviruses.jfif 40.14 kB · 17 downloads

This is the only poster I have seen so far who has a clear idea of the science behind the outbreak. Thank you, and please keep speaking up! Misinformation and anxiety do almost as much damage to society as the illness itself.

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