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Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis


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17 hours ago, Logosone said:

So does this mean Chinese hospitals are better than American hospitals?

 

I mean it's just that China was surprised, ambushed. Whereas the US had a few months to learn the lay of the land.

 

More money too.

 

So how come China has less cases?

Here is an interesting article on that https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3905788?fbclid=IwAR36-jlTkF5dSGsmpocDqsQAUBAEn_1W3oytEuOVgeutsDYlahPxp0KVrbA

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16 hours ago, Logosone said:

That's just the point, there is no study which proves social distancing is effective.

 

You're right, travel restriction is not exactly the same as the social distancing we're forced to endure, but unless you have a better study, that's the best there is.

 

I don't have to prove social distancing is not effective. Social distancing extremists have to prove that it is.

I was also putting the massive travel restrictions in with social distancing, but you are correct they are not the same thing

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10 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Nations that were impacted by SARS were more wary than others.  For instance, South Korea had a plan that included reacting quickly to a previously unknown and potentially fatal respiratory disease.  SK was "unlucky" in that a low number of infected individuals returning to SK attended large gatherings and became or created super spreaders.

South Korea's government also ignored the many warnings from experts. They were not prepared. The South Korean government failed like everywhere else, they did not prepare fully and they did not react on time. This is evidenced by the fact that they did not have test kits at the start like everyone else.

 

What happened in South Korea is that companies started to produce test kits as soon as China published the genome of the virus, just as was done in Germany. It was private companies and doctors and scientists that saved Korea. Not the government, which failed to prepare adequately and took no action while watching Wuhan, like everyone else.

 

South Korea toward the end of March was able to do 70000 tests a week, less than half of what Germany is able to do. However, they have taken the fight to the virus and really made an effort to identify and isolate the carriers.

 

And the most important difference: They did not use the drastic lockdown measures other countries have used. Because the South Koreans understood that isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. They concentrated on isolating the infected.

 

So South Korea is a perfectly example that if you take intelligent steps to isolate the infected, identify them and, track them, then extreme social isolation and lockdown of the healthy are not necessary.

 

So yes, good work Korea. But despite the governments early failure and its failure to prepare adequately.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And the most important difference: They did not use the drastic lockdown measures other countries have used. Because the South Koreans understood that isolating the healthy from the healthy is pointless. They concentrated on isolating the infected.

Change of policy...

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-26/south-korea-reports-91-new-coronavirus-cases-total-9-332-kcdc

 

Plus...

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

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On 3/27/2020 at 4:07 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

But Dr. Trump says you can go to packed church services in time for Easter!!!!!   :clap2:

 

If he can't be impeached out of office by the Republicans in the U.S. Senate, can they at least yank his medical license!!!!

Should that not be charged  with  practicing Medicine without a license?

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There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

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22 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

And the source for these fake statistics is?

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21 minutes ago, candide said:

And the source for these fake statistics is?

#1 should have been listed as CVD...cardiovascular disease. Source WHO

https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases/#tab=tab_1

 

#2 Source WHO and CDC

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

 

#3 Source MercyCorps and WHO

https://www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition

 

#4 depending on source can possibly be revised down to between 2000-7000

https://mosquitoreviews.com/learn/disease-death-statistics

https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/vector_ecology/mosquito-borne-diseases/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito-borne_disease

 

#5 Source WHO and IDF and can possibly be revised much higher depending on source

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes

https://www.idf.org/aboutdiabetes/what-is-diabetes/facts-figures.html

 

#6 Source CDC and Forbes

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2018/12/31/every-24-seconds-someone-dies-death-toll-on-worlds-roads-worsens/#d93edd03e79d

 

#7 Source WHO and UNAids

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/

https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet

 

#8 Source NIH and WHO

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

#9 revised and rounded up to 500/day based on number of known deaths (at this very moment) divided by 60 days since Covid 19 became widely known. This mortality number is rising, but is also subject to the number of days divided in to that number. 88 days would probably be more accurate and yield a daily death rate of 328 per day presently, but the higher number used above was erring on the side of caution. At the end of it...as with the seasonal flu, deaths are divided by 365, to be an accurate comparison the total number of deaths in 2020 from Covid 19 will also have to be divided by 365. 

 

#10 Source National Geographic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning/

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2 hours ago, Sujo said:

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...

 

when assessing trump news the smartest thing to do before reacting is to wait 

48 hrs....it will usually be reported as misinformation.

 

This seems like a classic case of made up nonsense...the kind you like to traffic in.

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1 hour ago, Skeptic7 said:

#1 should have been listed as CVD...cardiovascular disease. Source WHO

https://www.who.int/health-topics/cardiovascular-diseases/#tab=tab_1

 

#2 Source WHO and CDC

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

 

#3 Source MercyCorps and WHO

https://www.mercycorps.org/blog/quick-facts-global-hunger

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malnutrition

 

#4 depending on source can possibly be revised down to between 2000-7000

https://mosquitoreviews.com/learn/disease-death-statistics

https://www.who.int/neglected_diseases/vector_ecology/mosquito-borne-diseases/en/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito-borne_disease

 

#5 Source WHO and IDF and can possibly be revised much higher depending on source

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes

https://www.idf.org/aboutdiabetes/what-is-diabetes/facts-figures.html

 

#6 Source CDC and Forbes

https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tanyamohn/2018/12/31/every-24-seconds-someone-dies-death-toll-on-worlds-roads-worsens/#d93edd03e79d

 

#7 Source WHO and UNAids

https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/

https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet

 

#8 Source NIH and WHO

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

#9 revised and rounded up to 500/day based on number of known deaths (at this very moment) divided by 60 days since Covid 19 became widely known. This mortality number is rising, but is also subject to the number of days divided in to that number. 88 days would probably be more accurate and yield a daily death rate of 328 per day presently, but the higher number used above was erring on the side of caution. At the end of it...as with the seasonal flu, deaths are divided by 365, to be an accurate comparison the total number of deaths in 2020 from Covid 19 will also have to be divided by 365. 

 

#10 Source National Geographic

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/lightning/

Ok I acknowledge your estimates were accurate. However it does not make sense to calculate the number of death per day for the coronavirus pandemic as it is very far from its peak at the world level. As you mention, that would make sense only at the end of this year.

 

However, your estimates may be a good way to assess the magnitude of coronavirus daily figures, I.e. today more than 3500 new deaths, so in the range of deaths by diabetes. When it is in the same range as deaths by CVC, that will be quite significant.

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4 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

There needs to be a GLOBAL "Tick By Tick" DEATH SCOREBOARD every day on every website and Television channel...even after this "End of World" event passes, just to keep things in proper perspective. Since there isn't., here are the approximate averages...

 

Average deaths/day from heart disease: 45,000

Average deaths/day from tobacco related: 21,000

Average deaths/day from malnutrition: 20,000

Average deaths/day from mosquitoes: 7000

Average deaths/day from diabetes: 4300

Average deaths/day from motor vehicle: 3700

Average deaths/day from HIV related: 2100

Average deaths/day from seasonal flu(s): 1000 

Average deaths/day from Covid-19: 460

Average deaths/day from lightning: 10

#9 has/had potential to dwarf them all.

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5 hours ago, Slosheroni said:

Lol...the same principles apply.  Social distancing works. 

No, because influenza is transmitted differently to Covid19. With Covid19 transmission is much faster and that is because 50% of the infected show no symptoms, there are also other transmission differences.

 

So one can't just take influenza social distancing data and apply it to Covid19 as if it were the same virus. It's not.

 

Because Covid19 transmission is so fast it is more likely that herd immunity will be achieved before social distancing can even cause any small delay. It's basically pointless. Precisely because Covid19 transmission is different and much faster. Post a study that shows social distancing works with Covid19. There is no hard data on this at all. It's just a belief. A hope. A hunch. 

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1 hour ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...

 

when assessing trump news the smartest thing to do before reacting is to wait 

48 hrs....it will usually be reported as misinformation.

 

This seems like a classic case of made up nonsense...the kind you like to traffic in.

Whats dodgy about the source.

 

If you believe anything trump says i know its dodgy, he dies have prior form as the liar in chief.

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1 hour ago, Sujo said:

Whats dodgy about the source.

 

If you believe anything trump says i know its dodgy, he dies have prior form as the liar in chief.

 

hmmmm....you are going to find yourself increasingly isolated in your echo chamber

of trump hate. His approval on handling the crisis has skyrocketed according to an ABC

poll yesterday (google it).....his daily briefings have shown him too be a guy who suffers

no idiot journos.....gives hope and courage to millions.....so much so that CNN has decided to stop airing 

them. 

 

Trump has proven that posturing saints like governor Cuomo are just liars who cry wolf about ventilators

when they actually have them sitting in stockpiles. 

 

liar in chief??? LOL....it's sad to see a grown up (presumably) getting all their critical thinking fodder from

a lying sewage outlet like CNN.

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5 hours ago, JHolmesJr said:

 

you need to stop spewing these crappy urls from dodgy sources...in.

Crappy URLs? Uninformed nonsense - comes from a Rupert Murdoch owned media group - a well known trump supporter

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4 hours ago, Logosone said:

No, because influenza is transmitted differently to Covid19. With Covid19 transmission is much faster and that is because 50% of the infected show no symptoms, there are also other transmission differences.

 

So one can't just take influenza social distancing data and apply it to Covid19 as if it were the same virus. It's not.

 

Because Covid19 transmission is so fast it is more likely that herd immunity will be achieved before social distancing can even cause any small delay. It's basically pointless. Precisely because Covid19 transmission is different and much faster. Post a study that shows social distancing works with Covid19. There is no hard data on this at all. It's just a belief. A hope. A hunch. 

Influenza is transmitted the same way as Covid 19, but since it is easier to catch Covid 19 the virus spreads more rapidly.  That is an argument for social distancing.  The claim that 50% show no symptons (evidence also shows these people do not spread the virus as effectively) is also an argument for social distancing.

 

Herd immunity will be achieved eventually with slow transmission, then we will see how effective it is.  Low transmission rates allow health care systems more time to prepare.

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