Wake up guys!

[Logosone]

30 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Healthland let you in? 

 

Yes, but this was before the virus. Now thanks to this idiot Imperial College paper that even UK newspapers are laughing about we of course have LACKDAWWWN so nobody can get into Healthland or a spa with attractive masseuses.

 

Thank you UK.

[Logosone]

41 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

If you think so much of Ning, why didn't you marry her?

Don't think I haven't considered it. As well as a massage goddess she looks like an Asian version of a young Phoebe Cates. Above all she really cares. You know she'll dig for that muscle knot until she finds it, then stretches you at the end. The effort she puts in, my God.

 

But these Asian women are expensive, and I already have one. I bet Somchai has been a drain on the purse over the years. Imagine two of them. Even if this were Indonesia and we were all muslims, I don't think it's viable.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[Vigilante]

 

..

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Vigilante

[URMySunshine]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

Everyone will be pleased to know that two 63 year olods who had the virus in Australia have fully recovered and are back in USA.  That is right - Tom Hanks and his wife are fine now and back in the USA - thank goodness - I was so worried and I assume you all were too of course ????

 

Clearly this is a catastrophic infection that is going to kill millions. And it is not as if there are any other causes of humans dieing in the world in such numbers - not true - otjherwise surely we would be told about it.  It is all fake news when they talk about the millions who have died from TB and Malaria and Hepatitis and HIV/AIDs and car accidents etc etc. I dont klnow anyone - so it is just not true.  No - this virus is real and it will kill millions I tell you - millions.  I am so glad they have shut down the world's economies and crashed all the stock markets and created massive business losses and inevitable bankruptcies and many millions of unemployed.  No I am serious - stop laughing at me.  And - now they know how to do it I hope it stays forever.  That way we can maybe stop climate change and the planet's catastrophic death within 12 years - true - AOC said so.

 

Satire? What satire?? This is too serious to joke about.

Hi Bob hope you will be volunteering at ER when they need a hand for this pesky flu. They sure could do with a helping hand. 

[Vigilante]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Don't think I haven't considered it. As well as a massage goddess she looks like an Asian version of a young Phoebe Cates. Above all she really cares. You know she'll dig for that muscle knot until she finds it, then stretches you at the end. The effort she puts in, my God.

 

But these Asian women are expensive, and I already have one. I bet Somchai has been a drain on the purse over the years. Imagine two of them. Even if this were Indonesia and we were all muslims, I don't think it's viable.

You are in the wrong thread bud!

[URMySunshine]

1 minute ago, Vigilante said:

You are in the wrong thread bud!

He may well be but I'm glad I looked her up.

 

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, AussieBob18 said:

 

 

Perhaps those not aware of all this because they are uninformed or comfortable in their village may soon begin to realise the economic damage that is being done.  Based on the predictions of WHO 'experts' - a few of which are now saying 'we didn't mean that' - the world's economies may never recover. The potential ramifications on people's lives is severe. 

 

 

Severe is to put it mildly...catastrophic may be more appropriate.

 

After the pandemic will come the bill and it will be a doozy, in the trillions of dollars, to add to the existing bill which was already gigantic.

 

I maintain my (and others) estimate of 5 to 10 years of economic hardship.

 

Of course, things could go faster if (some) governments seize the opportunity of the state of emergency to implement drastic changes...such as "sorry man but your pension has been cut in half (or more)" and "no cash anymore, only crypto, and sorry for the small percentage of your money we will take every month to rebuild the economy" and so on...

[URMySunshine]

1 hour ago, Olmate said:

Healthland let you in? 

 

Needs must. 

[Blue Mango]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Here we have the good Dr Neil Ferguson on record:

 

"Our estimates – while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available – suggest that the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the twentieth century."

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-rate-estimated-imperial-scientists/

 

Fast forward one month and it's:

 

"UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower"

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

 

And he's saying he didn't back-peddle, that sly little weasel....

 

He can go sit on a Christmas tree this stupidass Dr Ferguson. He's had the whole world closed down because 0.003% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks, the majority of whom are over 80 years old and would have died anyway.

You say "He's had the whole world closed down because 0.003% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks"

 

So you're saying all the governments across the world are following the advice of one British guy? And some say the British no longer have any influence... ????

[Lacessit]

47 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

He may well be but I'm glad I looked her up.

 

Dammit, can't enlarge to take a gander at the legs.

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, Blue Mango said:

You say "He's had the whole world closed down because 0.003% of the population of the UK may or may not die in the next few weeks"

 

So you're saying all the governments across the world are following the advice of one British guy? And some say the British no longer have any influence... ????

We have definitely witnessed a world wide adoption of Dr Ferguson's social distancing fetish.

 

Not completely of course, there are exceptions:

 

The Netherlands has so far chosen a softer set of measures than most Western European countries; it was late to close its schools and restaurants and hasn’t ordered a full lockdown. In a 16 March speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus among the groups least at risk of severe illness while making sure the health system isn’t swamped with COVID-19 patients. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other#

 

However, even the Americans were influenced by this infernal piece of <deleted> report from Neil Ferguson:

 

"American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Some said governments should treat the report’s projections about suppression policies with the same caution. It says social distancing measures might have to be imposed for 18 months or more, at least intermittently, until a vaccine is developed and tested. But the report acknowledges this is uncertain, given the possibility of drug treatments and the mystery of how the virus is transmitted.

 

British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Part of the reason why the Americans looked at the Imperial College, apart from the fact that it was IC and it was in English was of course that Neil Ferguson deliberately flirted with the US in a coquettish manner and also refers to the US in his paper.

 

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

 

So basically everyone is following the wrong model. The UK model. Yes, your highly benign influence again screwing up the world for generations to come. Hello Palestine, Syria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Northern Ireland, Malaysia, Cyprus, Nigeria, there is nothing the British will not mess up. Of course this is a new scale. 

[URMySunshine]

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

We have definitely witnessed a world wide adoption of Dr Ferguson's social distancing fetish.

 

Not completely of course, there are exceptions:

 

The Netherlands has so far chosen a softer set of measures than most Western European countries; it was late to close its schools and restaurants and hasn’t ordered a full lockdown. In a 16 March speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus among the groups least at risk of severe illness while making sure the health system isn’t swamped with COVID-19 patients. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other#

 

However, even the Americans were influenced by this infernal piece of <deleted> report from Neil Ferguson:

 

"American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Some said governments should treat the report’s projections about suppression policies with the same caution. It says social distancing measures might have to be imposed for 18 months or more, at least intermittently, until a vaccine is developed and tested. But the report acknowledges this is uncertain, given the possibility of drug treatments and the mystery of how the virus is transmitted.

 

British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Part of the reason why the Americans looked at the Imperial College, apart from the fact that it was IC and it was in English was of course that Neil Ferguson deliberately flirted with the US in a coquettish manner and also refers to the US in his paper.

 

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

 

So basically everyone is following the wrong model. The UK model. Yes, your highly benign influence again screwing up the world for generations to come. Hello Palestine, Syria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Northern Ireland, Malaysia, Cyprus, Nigeria, there is nothing the British will not mess up. Of course this is a new scale. 

Boris. Did.It We were warned. Trump's gonna be furious so please don't tell him. 

 

Joking aside though that's your spin on the NYT report and doesn't quite explain why ER's are overwhelmed with multiple additional deaths when the virus reaches a critical mass in its host countries.Time and time again. It's like the Y2K bug if it all goes well then folk will say was it worth it. If it is ultimately inconsequential as you suggest then a world rest may turn out to be a healthy way to start the world and countries on a different trajectory. A system reboot that cleans out a load of accumulated <deleted> that was taking us nowhere. The bubble to end all bubbles had to pop in the end and the world needs to move to more domestic production and a more equitable way of organising society. This changes have already begun.

 

If Trump wants to go that way then up to him here in the Uk we will wait it out for a couple of months,  get enhanced healthcare facilities in place and support our population - because that's what we do. And in Thailand a great reckoning is long overdue - bring it on. And of course the US is basically a rogue English colony - it's in your DNA. Korea,Vietnam,Cambodia,Laos,Iraq to name but a few if we are in the business of cataloging clusterf&cks - it's what Empires do after all. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, URMySunshine said:

Boris. Did.It We were warned. Trump's gonna be furious so please don't tell him. 

 

Joking aside though that's your spin on the NYT report and doesn't quite explain why ER's are overwhelmed with multiple additional deaths when the virus reaches a critical mass in its host countries.Time and time again. It's like the Y2K bug if it all goes well then folk will say was it worth it. If it is ultimately inconsequential as you suggest then a world rest may turn out to be a healthy way to start the world and countries on a different trajectory. A system reboot that cleans out a load of accumulated <deleted> that was taking us nowhere. The bubble to end all bubbles had to pop in the end and the world needs to move to more domestic production and a more equitable way of organising society. This changes have already begun.

To be fair Boris was probably innocent here. He was clearly embarrassed by this Neil Ferguson, one of his main advisers. First he published a model which suggested the UK should go for herd immunity. Then he suddenly completely revised his paper and went a different way, strong suppression. Poor Boris didn't know which way his head was spinning and his crack team didn't prevent him from becoming infected. Or the health secretary. Looks like something in that Cobra meeting room needs to be washed.

 

But joking aside indeed, because this is serious, obviously it is not inconsequential for those who are affected and whose immune system can not defeat the virus. There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that despite exceptions this will mostly be older people, those who die are around the 80 years age mark. In terms of health, it will be inconsequential for most, even this Dr Frankenstein, sorry, Ferguson, now concedes the number of deaths in the UK will be 20,000 or considerably less. So that's what, 0.003% of the population of the UK, of mostly the very old over 80.

 

However, something of course Dr Frankenstein Ferguson has not calculated through in his rather huge brain is the economic consequences of the total lockdowns which the world is now doing because of his half-arsed fly by the elbow seat of his pants spreadsheet calculations. Imagine how many people have been ruined, their lives destroyed because this guy can't get his figures right. He had one job. One. And he bocked it up.

 

 

 

[Logosone]

And you know, frankly this argument 'oh we were going into a huge recession anyway'...that's nonsense.

 

It is these lockdowns and the massive economic freak-out the UK, US, EU and everyone else did which will ensure the giant recession will come.

 

This was totally avoidable. It need not have happened the way it did. People did this. It was not some inexorable law of economics. Don't believe that.

[URMySunshine]

24 minutes ago, Logosone said:

To be fair Boris was probably innocent here. He was clearly embarrassed by this Neil Ferguson, one of his main advisers. First he published a model which suggested the UK should go for herd immunity. Then he suddenly completely revised his paper and went a different way, strong suppression. Poor Boris didn't know which way his head was spinning and his crack team didn't prevent him from becoming infected. Or the health secretary. Looks like something in that Cobra meeting room needs to be washed.

 

But joking aside indeed, because this is serious, obviously it is not inconsequential for those who are affected and whose immune system can not defeat the virus. There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that despite exceptions this will mostly be older people, those who die are around the 80 years age mark. In terms of health, it will be inconsequential for most, even this Dr Frankenstein, sorry, Ferguson, now concedes the number of deaths in the UK will be 20,000 or considerably less. So that's what, 0.003% of the population of the UK, of mostly the very old over 80.

 

However, something of course Dr Frankenstein Ferguson has not calculated through in his rather huge brain is the economic consequences of the total lockdowns which the world is now doing because of his half-arsed fly by the elbow seat of his pants spreadsheet calculations. Imagine how many people have been ruined, their lives destroyed because this guy can't get his figures right. He had one job. One. And he bocked it up.

 

 

 

Advisors advise ministers decide is an age old British mandarin mantra. So the buck stop with Boris I'm afraid and his team in the end. If this was China though and what you say turns out to be true poor old Professor Ferguson would be facing a firing squad. Of course what will likely happen is we all show off how we can respond and pull together as a nation and we wind this down sooner rather later and pat all ourselves on the back at what a good job we have done. 

 

Finally there is a fair bit of triumphalist hindsight in your analysis now with 3 months of data in to make these assumptions. We can all predict the lottery numbers the day after the draw. Now what do I do with cupboards full of pasta , flour and beans.....and bleedin oxygen can you believe !

 

And here you go the dirty secret if that's what it is will remain to most just that, a secret , for most it will be declared a triumph for public health policy in the short to medium term. 

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975

Edited March 28, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Blue Mango]

36 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

I don't have the inclination to fact check all of your claims, but here's what I found on Germany after a 2 second search.  Sounds pretty much in line with the measures the UK implemented? 

 

Before entering quarantine, Merkel tightened Germany's lockdown measures including banning gatherings of more than two people. Last week, she called the disease the country's biggest challenge since World War II.

Germany has already closed down schools, non-essential shops and urged people not to gather in groups

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-merkel-in-quarantine-as-country-bans-gatherings-of-more-than-two-to

 

 

 

[bartender100]

260 died yesterday in the UK, one of those i knew personally, and she dies in complete agony France had even more deaths

 

And some clowns think this is not serious

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Blue Mango said:

I don't have the inclination to fact check all of your claims, but here's what I found on Germany after a 2 second search.  Sounds pretty much in line with the measures the UK implemented? 

 

Before entering quarantine, Merkel tightened Germany's lockdown measures including banning gatherings of more than two people. Last week, she called the disease the country's biggest challenge since World War II.

Germany has already closed down schools, non-essential shops and urged people not to gather in groups

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-merkel-in-quarantine-as-country-bans-gatherings-of-more-than-two-to

 

 

 

German hasn't banned gatherings of more than two people, more than two people can still congregate outside if they are from the same household. The actual German distance prescription is smaller 1.50 m, not 2 m like in the UK. There are also a few other differences, but the key difference of the German approach is this:

 

From the start Germany has aggressively tested, identified and isolated carriers. This was possible in Germany because they had a lot of test kits which were produced quickly, and also a lot of icu beds (28000 to the UK's 5000), more respirators.

 

The UK has not tested in the same way as Germany, though recently BJ has announced he will. It is not testing in the same way however. Germany's testing approach is more aggressive.

 

But yes, in recent days there has been a convergence in that countries that hitherto had adopted different approaches, such as testing and isolating (Germany and Singapore or SKorea) or herd immunity (Netherlands) have  in fact also added the social distancing favoured in the UK, except Germany that had it a bit earlier than the UK. The UK of course has to rely on social distancing more because at least initially they do not have the testing or treatment facilities of others like Germany. That's what Neil Ferguson said in his report, that they did not consider testing because they did not have the test kits.

 

The reason why all the others are jumping on the social distancing bandwagon is perhaps that they saw the UK change from herd immunity approach to social distancing (suppression). This was because Neil Ferguson revised his paper radically and suddenly came to a very different conclusion.

 

Other countries would have seen how much the UK relies on social distancing and no doubt added it to the repertoire because it was seen as another measure, which probably works if the UK relies on it so much.

 

The evidence that social distancing works at all is very flimsy though, and is basically based on influenza pandemics. However the influenza virus is fundamantally different and transmission is different. Transmission with Covid19 is much quicker, because it's asymptomatic, ie by stealth, and because 50% of those infected show no symptoms at all. This means that the speed of the transmission works against social distancing. If it is the case that the UK is approaching 60% of infected then social distancing would make no sense anymore as herd immunity would be close. Not that it made that much sense to start with, as it merely delayed transmission a little bit, due to the speed of Covid19 transmission. That was not known when Ferguson penned his paper.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[URMySunshine]

27 minutes ago, bartender100 said:

260 died yesterday in the UK, one of those i knew personally, and she dies in complete agony France had even more deaths

 

And some clowns think this is not serious

Sorry to hear of your loss. For some sadly this is going to be very serious indeed , whatever the eventual outcome society wise. 

[geriatrickid]

33 minutes ago, bartender100 said:

260 died yesterday in the UK, one of those i knew personally, and she dies in complete agony France had even more deaths

 

And some clowns think this is not serious

You are being charitable.  Ignorant, malicious, and mentally ill are more appropriate terms. It is their personal therapy to cope with a crisis that they cannot otherwise manage. They need to find a solution to a problem which overwhelms them, and so they  cling  to crazy claims.

[Logosone]

Yes, for example I saw one fool claim that there is no immunity to Covid19, because people don't develop immunity to Aids. He didn't know that the Aids virus is a stealth virus which is makes it much harder for the immune system to break down. Completely different illness. Imagine what a fool.

 

A lot of people talk a lot of nonsense on here. You really have to be careful.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Logosone

[URMySunshine]

22 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, for example I saw one fool claim that there is no immunity to Covid19, because people don't develop immunity to Aids. He didn't know that the Aids virus is a stealth virus which is makes it much harder for the immune system to break down. Completely different illness. Imagine what a fool.

 

A lot of people talk a lot of nonsense on here. You really have to be careful.

Sometimes I think I'm through with here but wise guys like you come along and make it worth the while. 

[Susco]

I have said it in another thread and will say it here again.

 

From the early start of the measures taken, I have advocated this is all about controlling people.

 

Big brother and suppression, and testing how far they can go with it.

 

I don't want to claim the virus was created for that purpose, but it was man created for a certain purpose, and i don't think it were the Chinese.

 

In my opinion, the Chinese have done a pretty good job containing the virus in their own country by locking down almost an entire country, but that is not too difficult in a communist country.

 

The other countries in the world have seen an opportunity in this, to test how far they can go with their own population.

 

I agree about the seriousness of the infections in countries like Italy and Spain, but the infections are concentrated to certain areas and 90% of the fatalities worldwide are in a certain age group, so no need to lock down a complete country.

 

Have you also noticed that for the past few months most of the famous investors were mostly in cash, but were still advocating that the markets were healthy?

[URMySunshine]

37 minutes ago, Susco said:

I have said it in another thread and will say it here again.

 

From the early start of the measures taken, I have advocated this is all about controlling people.

 

Big brother and suppression, and testing how far they can go with it.

 

I don't want to claim the virus was created for that purpose, but it was man created for a certain purpose, and i don't think it were the Chinese.

 

In my opinion, the Chinese have done a pretty good job containing the virus in their own country by locking down almost an entire country, but that is not too difficult in a communist country.

 

The other countries in the world have seen an opportunity in this, to test how far they can go with their own population.

 

I agree about the seriousness of the infections in countries like Italy and Spain, but the infections are concentrated to certain areas and 90% of the fatalities worldwide are in a certain age group, so no need to lock down a complete country.

 

Have you also noticed that for the past few months most of the famous investors were mostly in cash, but were still advocating that the markets were healthy?

At market peaks most of the institutional investors are taking profits whilst shilling the rigged game to retails before the blow. I got out based on the science at the end of February and am back in based on the science and as an ex scientist this was an easy call to make. The markets haven't been healthy for years - just Ponzi shored up with QE and herd mentality. Sadly many and some here thought it was a one way bet. There's no such thing. I'm not a spiv but if I see free money I pick it up , oh and don't follow Trump he's a bankrupt and liar. Another easy call.  

Edited March 28, 2020 by URMySunshine

[Susco]

1 minute ago, URMySunshine said:

At market peaks most of the institutional investors are taking profits whilst shilling the rigged game to retails before the blow. I got out based on the science at the end of February and am back in based on the science and as an ex scientist this was an easy call to make. The markets haven't been healthy for years - just Ponzi shored up with QE and herd mentality. Sadly many and some here thought it was a one way bet. There's no such thing. 

 

That's also what I'm saying, but I think there is more behind this.

 

The working class got too wealthy, so encourage them to buy equities, which is easy in a never ending bull market.

 

Then let the markets crash while the 1% is in cash already. Rinse and repeat

[URMySunshine]

5 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

That's also what I'm saying, but I think there is more behind this.

 

The working class got too wealthy, so encourage them to buy equities, which is easy in a never ending bull market.

 

Then let the markets crash while the 1% is in cash already. Rinse and repeat

The shoeshine boy moment. Twas ever thus hopefully those robbed will scale the walls of the elites and burn them down to teach them a lesson rather than turn on those less fortunate. 

 

Vive La Liberte !

 

 

[AlexRich]

13 hours ago, Logosone said:

"Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong."

 

Dr Yoram Lass is an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School.

 

Thankfully the German health system was well prepared and is even able to take in patients from Italy and France as it has spare capacity. 

 

So clearly this particular country had the hospitals and equipment and skilled manpower.

 

Why not the UK or US? The point is that many reputable people warned a long time that a pandemic was coming. Governments failed to prepare. They should have. You think inreasing testing capacities would not have made a difference early on? It certainly would have.

 

The governments have failed. Miserably. And the people who will end this virus will not be government. Even while Boris Johnson and Neil Ferguson, the biggest social distancing fanatics, espouse their social distancing religion for which there is no hard data that it works with Covid19 whatsoever, they are lying in bed nursing a Covid19 infection. They are fortunately contributing to herd immunity, however, the economic cost of their lockdowns will be payed for by our children's children. The governments have failed on all fronts.

The Germans got their act together and tested. If they hadn’t they’d be having the same issues as other countries. So far Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have done likewise, with good results. They all learned the lessons from previous outbreaks like SARS. 

[Blue Mango]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

German hasn't banned gatherings of more than two people, more than two people can still congregate outside if they are from the same household. The actual German distance prescription is smaller 1.50 m, not 2 m like in the UK. There are also a few other differences, but the key difference of the German approach is this:

 

From the start Germany has aggressively tested, identified and isolated carriers. This was possible in Germany because they had a lot of test kits which were produced quickly, and also a lot of icu beds (28000 to the UK's 5000), more respirators.

 

The UK has not tested in the same way as Germany, though recently BJ has announced he will. It is not testing in the same way however. Germany's testing approach is more aggressive.

 

But yes, in recent days there has been a convergence in that countries that hitherto had adopted different approaches, such as testing and isolating (Germany and Singapore or SKorea) or herd immunity (Netherlands) have  in fact also added the social distancing favoured in the UK, except Germany that had it a bit earlier than the UK. The UK of course has to rely on social distancing more because at least initially they do not have the testing or treatment facilities of others like Germany. That's what Neil Ferguson said in his report, that they did not consider testing because they did not have the test kits.

 

The reason why all the others are jumping on the social distancing bandwagon is perhaps that they saw the UK change from herd immunity approach to social distancing (suppression). This was because Neil Ferguson revised his paper radically and suddenly came to a very different conclusion.

 

Other countries would have seen how much the UK relies on social distancing and no doubt added it to the repertoire because it was seen as another measure, which probably works if the UK relies on it so much.

 

The evidence that social distancing works at all is very flimsy though, and is basically based on influenza pandemics. However the influenza virus is fundamantally different and transmission is different. Transmission with Covid19 is much quicker, because it's asymptomatic, ie by stealth, and because 50% of those infected show no symptoms at all. This means that the speed of the transmission works against social distancing. If it is the case that the UK is approaching 60% of infected then social distancing would make no sense anymore as herd immunity would be close. Not that it made that much sense to start with, as it merely delayed transmission a little bit, due to the speed of Covid19 transmission. That was not known when Ferguson penned his paper.

 

 

So, in a nutshell, Germany have also implemented social distancing. Therefore Germany are also following Ferguson. 

 

This Ferguson chap seems to wield more power and influence over Earthlings than General Zod ????

 

[Blue Mango]

1 hour ago, AlexRich said:

The Germans got their act together and tested. If they hadn’t they’d be having the same issues as other countries. So far Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea have done likewise, with good results. They all learned the lessons from previous outbreaks like SARS. 

Spot on. As nasty as it was, SARS was a great rehearsal for those countries. 

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Curt1591 said:

There's is right, there is wrong, and then there is reality. 

One of the few things we know for sure is that, whether it's a true pandemic, or just a global conspiracy,  until the numbers go down, restrictions will continue. 

Agree.

Till a vaccine is available there will probably be a second, third etc wave. Will they lock us up for the year till the vaccine is available? How many broken marriages and partnerships are acceptable, how many cases of domestic violence are acceptable, how many millions of unemployed are acceptable, how many bankrupt businesses are acceptable?

What I do know is that the government has the power ( police ) to force us to stay in our accommodation regardless of the consequences.

 

There are 7 billion people on the planet. What % are really under threat? Last time I heard it was less than 10%. How many people would normally die during a similar time period? Are they going to destroy the village to save it?

 

Something that is likely to happen, is a significant increase in injuries caused by people injured doing DIY at home. Falling off ladders apparently causes more than a few injuries requiring hospitalisation, but I don't know the actual numbers.

When I was working in orthopedics a lot of our cases were old ladies falling over and breaking their hips- that isn't going to change. Problem is if there will be space in hospital for them, and if they will get infected when they go into hospital.