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5 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Just like the modelling to claim climate change will destroy the planet in 12 years?  Sorry - off topic but I had to say that.

Back to it ...........

Sadly that's already had a head start in your country. 

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Posted (edited)

Its hard to imagine that a planet wide plague could become such an internet bore..and that gross perseveration is the order of the day.

 

Altho' Albert Camus would have,quite possibly, agreed

 

Stay safe,be careful.

Edited by Odysseus123

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2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And now it is Dr Fauci himself who is revising his death predictions waaayyyy down!

 

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/

 

You either succumb to White House pressure to color the facts, you resign, or you are fired. There is no grey area with this president. 

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19 hours ago, Logosone said:

We have definitely witnessed a world wide adoption of Dr Ferguson's social distancing fetish.

 

Not completely of course, there are exceptions:

 

The Netherlands has so far chosen a softer set of measures than most Western European countries; it was late to close its schools and restaurants and hasn’t ordered a full lockdown. In a 16 March speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus among the groups least at risk of severe illness while making sure the health system isn’t swamped with COVID-19 patients. 

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other#

 

However, even the Americans were influenced by this infernal piece of <deleted> report from Neil Ferguson:

 

"American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Some said governments should treat the report’s projections about suppression policies with the same caution. It says social distancing measures might have to be imposed for 18 months or more, at least intermittently, until a vaccine is developed and tested. But the report acknowledges this is uncertain, given the possibility of drug treatments and the mystery of how the virus is transmitted.

 

British officials recognize that their health service faces a moment of truth. All non-urgent operations in England will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to free up 30,000 beds to help tackle the coronavirus.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

 

Part of the reason why the Americans looked at the Imperial College, apart from the fact that it was IC and it was in English was of course that Neil Ferguson deliberately flirted with the US in a coquettish manner and also refers to the US in his paper.

 

There is no question that many governments copied what the US and UK were doing. Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands being some of the notable exceptions, and coincidentally being the most successful in mitigating deaths. 

 

So basically everyone is following the wrong model. The UK model. Yes, your highly benign influence again screwing up the world for generations to come. Hello Palestine, Syria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Northern Ireland, Malaysia, Cyprus, Nigeria, there is nothing the British will not mess up. Of course this is a new scale. 

Your whole rambling really comes down to the last paragraph where your prejudice surfaces. I am sure Countries have their own minds 

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Not at all, that's just a fortuitous convergence of facts.

 

The fact is that Neil Ferguson's first IC model failed. He revised it and again it looks very questionable.

 

Where's the evidence that social distancing works with Covid19? Do you have the paper that shows this is the case?

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3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Meanwhile Neil Ferguson has said the lockdown will last at least until June in the UK

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

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3 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

Well if it takes say another 2 weeks to peak, 2 weeks to level, off 4 weeks ease down is not inconceivable

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11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Absolutely no chance of keeping the public locked down till June... Not without major casualties, which would kind of defeat the purpose of the lock down !!

Exactly. What I don't get is that in Ferguson's paper he says at least 12 to 18 months is required for the lockdown to work.

 

Now it's two months. He changes his tune more than Robbie Williams.

 

I totally agree, that a lockdown in the long term is bound to fail.

 

"Angry crowds rioted near the Chinese city of Wuhan"

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162773/Chinas-coronavirus-epicentre-Wuhan-lifts-lockdown-travel-restrictions-time-two-months.html

 

If the Chinese don't do it without showing their displeasure, I'd like to see how the British and German populace will react.

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9 minutes ago, 473geo said:

Well if it takes say another 2 weeks to peak, 2 weeks to level, off 4 weeks ease down is not inconceivable

 

That might be the time scale for the virus but I don't think the public will stay locked up for 8 weeks... There will be major riots before then I would think ?? Maybe be wrong and everyone just gets on with it !! Who knows 

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11 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

That might be the time scale for the virus but I don't think the public will stay locked up for 8 weeks... There will be major riots before then I would think ?? Maybe be wrong and everyone just gets on with it !! Who knows 

Where are the public going to go, unless they do something like let the kids back to school, and under 60s back to work

 

 

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Bad news for social distancing rapturists. They've been doing it all wrong.

 

MIT study shows that 8 m is required, not 1.5 or 2 m.

 

Chinese study shows Covid19 virus is stronger than influenza virus and can survive in warm swimming pool.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162697/Social-distancing-EIGHT-metres-avoid-coronavirus-risk.html

 

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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Exactly. What I don't get is that in Ferguson's paper he says at least 12 to 18 months is required for the lockdown to work.

 

Now it's two months. He changes his tune more than Robbie Williams.

 

I totally agree, that a lockdown in the long term is bound to fail.

 

"Angry crowds rioted near the Chinese city of Wuhan"

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162773/Chinas-coronavirus-epicentre-Wuhan-lifts-lockdown-travel-restrictions-time-two-months.html

 

If the Chinese don't do it without showing their displeasure, I'd like to see how the British and German populace will react.

Or Ozzie’s, ABC news this arvo, did you see the old chap  just back into  Aust setting up in an Ibis backpacker hotel,smaller than my dunny,bunks and all and with 14 days to go.This Scomo is a control freak unhinged now with no sitting parliament for next 5 months!

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These lockdown social distancing policies have brought untold sorrow on people, that story of the Russian woman and her son is also outrageous.

 

But good news:

 

On 26 March, Robert Bosch GmbH announced it had developed a new Covid-19 test system, which could diagnose whether a patient was infected in less than 2.5 hours instead of days and could be run automatically at the point of care. According to Bosch, the test would be available in Germany in April and could check for 10 respiratory pathogens simultaneously with an accuracy of more than 95%.

 

Soon in a pharmacy near you.

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10 hours ago, christophe75 said:

Plus, how many of those old 27000 victims would have died anyway during the year ?

This is a valid point. I was listening to a discussion today around the importance of distinguishing between people who have died 'of' Covid 19, and people who have died 'with' Covid 19. There must be many for whom the virus simply fast forwarded their deaths by a few days or weeks.  

 

Not that this makes the situation any less sad. 

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