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11 hours ago, Logosone said:

I'm sure the infection rate is indeed much higher than we know. 

 

Yes, things have been dramatic in Italy, the worst affected country of all, over 10000 people have died.

 

And yet Italy has by far the strictest social distancing rules of any country on earth.

 

What does that tell you?

For Italy I gather the virus was able to spread rapidly under the radar, before it's citizens knew of the threat. The typically tactile Italian people with all the hugging and kissing were the perfect vessels for helping the virus to spread. Their social distancing came later, by which time it was too late. 

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Exactly.

 

Just like the identified cases are not all cases the patient zeros are not the real patient zeros.

 

Nothing is what it seems with this virus. Isn't it odd how we, that think we are the smartest animals on earth are being tricked and outsmarted by an entity so small it's only visible under a lab conditions?

 

If there are ten million viruses in one drop of water, maybe the viruses are the secret rulers of this planet.

 

Whatever we do, it looks like this virus is always a step ahead. Like it does whatever it wants. Like it's invincible.

 

And it is. Even if we get this wave under control, there will be further waves. He will never go away.

 

Unless he wants to.

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I can just see the highly decorated OBE recipient Dr Ferguson with his Oxford Diploma on the wall, furiously calculating all variables, all the available data calculated in complex mathematical formulas, trying to predict the best way to stop the virus. Discussing his findings with his fellow Doctors and agreeing on a thought out strategy, satisfied he has done everything, thought of everything. Presenting it to the head of government.

 

And on goes the tiniest of tiny of entities. Unstoppable. Invincible. Outsmarting the Doctor at every turn. Invalidating his paper and models. Doing whatever it wants. Conquering 200 countries in the space of 3 months.

 

So tiny. So much smarter.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

So the excellent study which proved that the virus was not man-made also postulated that the virus has been around for a while BEFORE the Wuhan market event was possible.

 

This is because a specific receptor in the virus is specifically adapted for humans, unlike the bat version of the virus which is not. So there must have been 'adaption to humans. This means the virus would have spread some time before Wuhan ever happened. That was just the first time the virus was noticed. No wonder lockdown was not useful in China.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Edited by Logosone

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If you could post the gist would be great, the link does not open.

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19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

If you could post the gist would be great, the link does not open.

it works with Brave...

here's 1st and last paragraphs.

and see it is just another Forum site 

 (and they want donations) 😱 

image.thumb.png.d460b6a76fb188728afe0ebdeb4850ff.png

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Interesting, not with Chrome or Firefox. I'm definitely downloading Brave.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Here is another right on spot analysis...

 

http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=20136

 

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

Edited by Tagged

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16 minutes ago, Tagged said:

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

You imply that all governments follow the same policies and impose the same restrictions on their populations, but this is not true...at all!

 

Some governments, notably in Western Europe, have gone into full panic mode, locking down their whole populations, and in return getting the worst results.

 

Some governments have searched for the right balance, notably in Asia (see the example of Singapore described by another member), and are getting the best results.

 

Following the latter is being wise, while following the former is being a lemming...

 

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16 minutes ago, Tagged said:

It is different between panic and being wise. We see now in many countries, they have to postphone critical surgeries, because of corona demanding all of its resourches, just to handle one single thing, critical corona sick. Im not in panic, im not worried about me, Im worried about those who need help. Nothing else, and the last thing I would do, oppose my government, and rather obey for this single case, and help out the way I can, and that is to stay a F home.

 

If everybody do that, well we get back to normal faster, and can get the society up and rolling again as normal. The longer people F up, the longer will the shut down be! Not hard to understand. Quit simple. 

 

It doesnt mean you panic, it doesnt mean you are scared, it doesnt mean you are a sheep, it is just for this single cause. 
 

There'a a lot of panic and fear going on, but not much wisdom.

 

You're right that operations have been cancelled in the UK for 3 months for instance, so that 30,000 beds can be put aside for Covid19.  Of course what that means is that care for those with critical conditions other than Covid19 will be greatly impaired. Already some people can not get an operation that they need. So if this period of time is extended until June or say for 12 or 18 months, as the social distancer in General Neil Ferguson has decreed, then there is a strong likelihood that due to the impaired care for non-Covid19 sufferers over this longer period of time the number of additional deaths of people who have critical conditions unrelated to Covid 19 will be increased. And for what benefit if doctors can not save a lot of Covid19 patients, no therapy, no vaccine, no key materials? All they do is intubate and watch them die by all accounts.

 

We will of course not get back to normal faster if we self-isolate for 12 or 18 months. We would get back to normal much faster if we do not social-distance. The reason that is not being done is just not to overwhelm health workers. Nobody even expects they will be able to do much for Covid19 patients of 81 year old who would have died anyway.

 

You talk about wisdom. Wouldn't it be wise to first determine if your governments course of action is the correct one before you obey it? Why slavishly obey something that is wrong?

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

You imply that all governments follow the same policies and impose the same restrictions on their populations, but this is not true...at all!

 

Some governments, notably in Western Europe, have gone into full panic mode, locking down their whole populations, and in return getting the worst results.

 

Some governments have searched for the right balance, notably in Asia (see the example of Singapore described by another member), and are getting the best results.

 

Following the latter is being wise, while following the former is being a lemming...

 

There was somebody who mentioned earlier each country have different risk potential than others. 

 

Why is Thailand not infected at same rate as Europeen countries? Is it because of handshaking, kissing, ? Clima? Or as you and more mention, sick and healthy people are put together? There is so many factors we do not know yet, but for Norway, almost complete lock down have in fact worked so far. Only 25 dead, and it is older sick people. 

 

When looked at sweeden, right now, they are at 110. Norway are half population. 

 

 

Well, as someone said, it doesnt match up the numbers just to measure the population, and brake up numbers as percent. 

 

Usa,  900 to go, and same deathrate as China, but passed in numbers of infected. 

 

The good thing about this discussion, we will know in few months what will happens. But still sure we will discuss the same, even numbers will be at table. 

 

A mild heads up for what can come in near future. Hopefully we will learn something. 

Edited by Tagged

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Logosone said:

There'a a lot of panic and fear going on, but not much wisdom.

 

You're right that operations have been cancelled in the UK for 3 months for instance, so that 30,000 beds can be put aside for Covid19.  Of course what that means is that care for those with critical conditions other than Covid19 will be greatly impaired. Already some people can not get an operation that they need. So if this period of time is extended until June or say for 12 or 18 months,

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to normal quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand, the country I am at now, that people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

Edited by Tagged

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2 minutes ago, Tagged said:

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to noraml quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand the country I am at now, people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

You are right about that.

I imagine these farangs are mostly concentrated in places like Pattaya or Phuket, which are a magnet for these types...

 

Personally I respect the restrictions imposed in Thailand because I find them reasonable.

 

I hope Thailand is taking advice more from Singapore than from Italy...

 

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