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2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

And locking them down made things worse, because infected people were told to remain inside with other, not yet infected, members of their family.

 

 

Yesterday i watched an interview with an Italian doctor, basically what he said, is that Vitamin D can fight successfully against the virus.

From google:

A human body produces vitamin D as a response to sun exposure. A person can also boost their vitamin D intake through certain foods or supplements.

Vitamin D is essential for several reasons, including maintaining healthy bones and teeth. It may also protect against a range of diseases and conditions, such as type 1 diabetes.

Despite its name, vitamin D is not a vitamin, but a prohormone, or precursor of a hormone.

Vitamins are nutrients that the body cannot create, and so a person must consume them in the diet. However, the body can produce vitamin D.

In this article, we look at the benefits of vitamin D, what happens to the body when people do not get enough, and how to boost vitamin D intake.

 

 

 
During sun exposure, a person’s body produces vitamin D.

Vitamin D has multiple roles in the body. It assists in:

  • promoting healthy bones and teeth
  • supporting immune, brain, and nervous system health
  • regulating insulin levels and supporting diabetes management
  • supporting lung function and cardiovascular health
  • influencing the expression of genes involved in cancer development

...So, apparently, locking the people indoors, you deprive them of Vitamin D, just saying..

 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Tagged said:

I was talking about bying time, by complete lock down, and then open slowly. Thats what China have done, that is what Norway is doing as well. Quite simular model, and if every country reacted the same way, we could have avoided the dramatic numbers of infected , and more likely managed to come back to noraml quicker. 

 

And Im not saying every government do it right, it is just when something is decided, people have to follow up! It doesnt help if Thailand the country I am at now, people do not follow up, and hell brakes loose with army posts at every corner. Do we want same situation as spain? Thailand have given a soft warning havent they? 

 

Still I see pics of falangs who do not give a F, and do what they want. Is that good for you and me if you living here as me? 

You're right, a lock down at the beginning would have made sense, it would have avoided the dramatic numbers. But now that the virus has spread widely, that logic is becoming very flimsy.

 

China did not just lockdown. China used a variety of intervention measures simultaneously, including testing, identifying and isolating the infected, clinical management and restrictions of mobility. Chinese studies have not been able to determine how much of a reduction in transmission is to be attributed to each measure. So, basically there are three main measures:

 

1. Testing, identifying and isolating the infected

2. Clinical management of infected cases

3. Restrictions on movement

 

What if, it is 1 and 2 that are by far the most effective methods, and 3 only provides very small benefits? Why focus on that measure and not on the other two?

 

China is not a success story btw, it has one of the highest mortality rates. It remains to be seen what future waves will bring. In a way China is to blame for this social distancing focus.

 

What if it what was decided, ie restrictions on travel, social distancing, was wrong? What if taking the fight to the virus by testing and isolating is much more successful? Why follow a wrong decision? Personally I think the focus is on social distancing because it's much easier to set up a road block than to test, find and isolate the infected. The UK only focused on it because it had no test kits, so the testing and isolating option was not available to them.

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

Edited by Logosone

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

For your catastrophip economic cost, I will say it is a mild reminder for our sick economic system, that we can not forget it will come bad times, that will put our system on test. In my lifetime, I have now experienced 3 cracks, this is the last one. First time just finished army, starting establishing me with job, house, gf. Second time a new company, and this time as well, a new company. The difference this time from before, I have a large buffer, and I expected it. Not a virus, but I expected a new crack coming shortly in few years. 

 

As we should expect the virus take human life, we should also expect the virus to set us back on the economic side. No doubt about it will hurt, but we will manage, and we should learn from it. 

 

Every country should be more sustainable from catastrophes like this, and not live day by day thinking what we have today will last forever, and take if granted. 

 

Humans will always experience growth and wealty times, and set backs. Nature law. There is no quick fix to that. 

 

I do not believe in mask, if not you self  is sick, and know how to use the mask not to transfer the virus to others. 

 

But for me it was a relief to put the mask on, so I did not have to see all the fear and anger behind the mask people I met, so therefor I use a mask. 

Edited by Tagged
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1 hour ago, Logosone said:

The lockdown duration in the UK was just ramped up to six months

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-restrictions-could-last-six-months-deputy-chief-medical-officer

 

They'll do this until they hit 12 or 18 months most likely, as Ferguson suggested in his paper.

There will be civil unrest, or more, long before that...

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@Brunolem

 

I had to aggree with you on this one. It might lead to something bigger out of our hands. And for you and me, foreigners in rural district in Thailand. What is your plan? Heading out before to late, or waiting it out? 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Logosone said:

The lockdown duration in the UK was just ramped up to six months

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/uk-coronavirus-restrictions-could-last-six-months-deputy-chief-medical-officer

 

They'll do this until they hit 12 or 18 months most likely, as Ferguson suggested in his paper.

There's no need for such long periods. All that's needed is to bring the R0 below 1. What there is, is a need for each individual to be alert and have their brain switched on all the time. Unfortunately, if that is too much to ask, the only choice then is enforced lockdown.

Edited by DrTuner

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4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

You are right about that.

I imagine these farangs are mostly concentrated in places like Pattaya or Phuket, which are a magnet for these types...

 

Personally I respect the restrictions imposed in Thailand because I find them reasonable.

 

I hope Thailand is taking advice more from Singapore than from Italy...

 

“Imagine all the people”! Cheezus 🤮

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14 minutes ago, Tagged said:

@Brunolem

 

I had to aggree with you on this one. It might lead to something bigger out of our hands. And for you and me, foreigners in rural district in Thailand. What is your plan? Heading out before to late, or waiting it out? 

 

 

At this point you have to make a judgment call.

 

I am married to a Thai, I have a Thai child, and I have been here for more than 20 years...so I have become part of the landscape.

 

On top of that, I don't see social unrest coming to Thailand, at least not to Isaan, if they keep navigating the crisis as they have until now.

 

Looking at the big picture, I have always considered East Asia, along with some South American countries, as the best place to withstand the incoming tsunami, which I have been expecting for years.

 

Of course, if the West goes at war with China later on...a likely possibility...things could become hot around here...but at that stage, there won't be much safe places left...

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Tagged said:

For your catastrophip economic cost, I will say it is a mild reminder for our sick economic system, that we can not forget it will come bad times, that will put our system on test. In my lifetime, I have now experienced 3 cracks, this is the last one. First time just finished army, starting establishing me with job, house, gf. Second time a new company, and this time as well, a new company. The difference this time from before, I have a large buffer, and I expected it. Not a virus, but I expected a new crack coming shortly in few years. 

Yes, this is my fourth blip, got hit in 2000 and 2008 and got wiser. The silver lining, one could hope, is that people will start saving for the rainy day again, something that's been completely forgotten for decades.

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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

There's no need for such long periods. All that's needed is to bring the R0 below 1. What there is, is a need for each individual to be alert and have their brain switched on all the time. Unfortunately, if that is too much to ask, the only choice then is enforced lockdown.

That's what I've been saying. But you may want to tell that to Neil Ferguson, remember the infernal flawed paper from hell which is the whole blueprint for the madness says:

 

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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20 minutes ago, Logosone said:

That's what I've been saying. But you may want to tell that to Neil Ferguson, remember the infernal flawed paper from hell which is the whole blueprint for the madness says:

 

"The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more).

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Not to throw cold water here, but there are actually around 25 vaccines available, and none of them is against a coronavirus. 

 

In other words, coronaviruses, not only the actual one, have proved to be very tough nuts to crack until now. 

 

There is no reason to believe that this is going to change overnight because we say so... 

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9 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Not to throw cold water here, but there are actually around 25 vaccines available, and none of them is against a coronavirus. 

 

In other words, coronaviruses, not only the actual one, have proved to be very tough nuts to crack until now. 

 

There is no reason to believe that this is going to change overnight because we say so... 

It's a fair point, there's been no vaccine for HIV, but for Covid19 it should easier to find a vaccine. It's a not stealth virus and few mutations. Plus resources will be thrown at it no end. So it could happen, and maybe sooner than 18 months, who knows.

 

Still, to expect social distancing for 12 months or 18 months is highly optimistic. 

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7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It's a fair point, there's been no vaccine for HIV, but for Covid19 it should easier to find a vaccine. It's a not stealth virus and few mutations. Plus resources will be thrown at it no end. So it could happen, and maybe sooner than 18 months, who knows.

 

Still, to expect social distancing for 12 months or 18 months is highly optimistic. 

Soon, they will have several vaccines, if not already. It is the testing that takes time.

 

The general stages is

  • Exploratory stage
  • Pre-clinical stage
  • Clinical development
  • Regulatory review and approval
  • Manufacturing
  • Quality control

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html

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