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7 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Wrt finding a vaccine, it seems the UK government are more than doing their bit. I realise this is a UK gov link (so might be biased), but I can't find any source disputing it: 

 

 

The race to find a vaccine for coronavirus will be boosted by £210 million of new UK aid funding, the Prime Minister announced today (26th March) following a virtual summit of G20 leaders.

To date, this is the largest single contribution by any country to the key international fund to find a coronavirus vaccine.

CEPI has announced that it requires $2 billion additional funding from international governments to develop the crucial vaccine. If all G20 governments pledged $100 million funding this shortfall would be met instantly. The UK has already gone beyond its share by committing £250 million to CEPI to date, and the UK is asking all governments to contribute to this important international goal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-record-funding-to-find-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

 

Interesting. This is CEPI: https://cepi.net/

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Wrt finding a vaccine, it seems the UK government are more than doing their bit. I realise this is a UK gov link (so might be biased), but I can't find any source disputing it: 

 

 

The race to find a vaccine for coronavirus will be boosted by £210 million of new UK aid funding, the Prime Minister announced today (26th March) following a virtual summit of G20 leaders.

To date, this is the largest single contribution by any country to the key international fund to find a coronavirus vaccine.

CEPI has announced that it requires $2 billion additional funding from international governments to develop the crucial vaccine. If all G20 governments pledged $100 million funding this shortfall would be met instantly. The UK has already gone beyond its share by committing £250 million to CEPI to date, and the UK is asking all governments to contribute to this important international goal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-announces-record-funding-to-find-a-coronavirus-vaccine

 

 

Absolutely, excellent work being done in the UK. It's a veritable world race to develop the vaccine. Lots of countries are doing excellent work, also on producing fast tests.

 

It's one thing to produce another vaccine, another to produce one that works. For swine flu, the vaccine works 50% of the time only. And that's an influenza virus.

 

Regarding the UK's contribution to CEPI, it's good the UK has started to contribute something, after the body was founded  by a consortium that included the governments of Norway, Japan, and Germany, The Wellcome Trust, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation the UK initially didn't join and didn't contribute anything. After many countries contributed hundreds of millions of dollars for years, it is absolutely right the UK should start contributing. 

 

It's nice that in times of need the UK has had a change of heart on this. The EU's and Germany's 740 million US$ will probably also help.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Epidemic_Preparedness_Innovations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Logosone
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12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

For swine flue, the vaccine works 50% of the time only. And that's an influenza virus.

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

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48 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

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1 minute ago, Logosone said:

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

Hard to say. Herd immunity is also a local thing, remember those remote amazon tribes that got wiped out when explorers found them?

 

One strategy would be to surround yourself with layers of those that have already had COVID-19 and presumably have immunity. Could possibly work for somebody evil and wealthy enough.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

Yes, it does, because of the speed of infencted who occupie critical resourches, we need for other critical patients. 

 

 

Edited by Tagged
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Unfortunately resources are finite, they're not infinite.

 

So if you cancel all operations for 3 months and give 30,000 beds to Covid 19 patients, those beds are not available to non-Covid 19 patients that are criticial. Already we are seeing non-Covid19 patients being shipped literally out to sea on a ship, in New York. What kind of compromised care they will get is anyone's guess.

 

The longer the social distancing is done to drag out the impaired compromised care of non-Covid19 patients, the more deaths of criticial Covid19 patients we will see.

 

And by all accounts even American doctors are just intubating the Covid19 patients and watching them die, no therapy, no vaccine, no materials, no real anything that could make a difference for those unfortunate plus 80 year olds who are seriously affected by Covid19.

 

In China 20% of Covid 19 patients needed hospital care. If we do end up say 20 or 30 million people infected, as some models have suggested, just imagine how hospital could cope. They couldn't.

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37 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And by all accounts even American doctors are just intubating the Covid19 patients and watching them die, no therapy, no vaccine, no materials, no real anything that could make a difference for those unfortunate plus 80 year olds who are seriously affected by Covid19.

If it gets bad enough soon we'll see this:

 

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What is happening is probably a lot worse than that, that looks almost idyllic by comparison of the stories doctors are telling in the media.

 

Imagine being a doctor and not have any weapons that really make a difference, and being told to go in this fight.

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Posted (edited)

I think we have a guinea pig for herd immunity: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belarus-alexander-lukashenko-vodka-sauna-countryside-tractors-a9434426.html

 

Quote

“You should drink the equivalent of 40-50ml of rectified spirit daily. But not at work.”

Mr Lukashenko advised repeated visits to the sauna, or banya, followed by up to 100ml of vodka.

“Go to the banya. Two or three times a week will do you good,” he said.

“When you come out of the sauna, not only wash your hands, but also your insides with 100 millilitres [of vodka].”

 

Vodka, sauna and football. In Finland football was replaced by drinking tar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_tar ). Can't play in -38 DegC. That was in the 1800's I think. 

 

I suppose this goes down well together with it:

 

 

Edited by DrTuner
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4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

 

[ I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.]

 

Nooooo....  Thats Amnesia !!!  :hit-the-fan:

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Logosone said:
4 hours ago, DrTuner said:

50% would still bring down the R0 a lot. But there's the usual caveat with vaccines: When they are rolled out in mass vaccinations, there could be individuals with allergies or other underlying conditions who react badly. I think it was H1N1 that had a vaccine that caused narcolepsy in some? Memory fails.

Will it really matter though, if this virus continues its unprecedented spread, won't so many people be infected that herd immunity will be achieved without a vaccine?

 

Theoretically yes... until it mutates. 

 

There is enough research into Influenza that the next mutation can be predicted (kind-of) and we can vaccinated before the outbreaks occur (H1N1 outbreak in 2009 caught everyone out though). 

 

With similar research it may be possible to immunise against specific Coronaviruses. 

 

Ultimately the end goal is be immunise against all influenza types and coronaviruses. 

 

Of course, the frightener is then the next ’new thing’.... I wonder if as we evolve alongside these virus that our coexistence is essential and should we [humans] go too long without viral outbreaks we risk catastrophic impact far greater than we are seeing today.

 

 

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1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

I think we have a guinea pig for herd immunity: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belarus-alexander-lukashenko-vodka-sauna-countryside-tractors-a9434426.html

 

 

Vodka, sauna and football. In Finland football was replaced by drinking tar ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_tar ). Can't play in -38 DegC. That was in the 1800's I think. 

 

I suppose this goes down well together with it:

 

 

Lol, coal tar was of course in a widely used shampoo sold in the UK, T-Gel, by Neutragena. Apparently it worked wonders, very popular with the British. Illegal in overcautious Europe due to minimal cancer concerns.

 

Very good advice by Lukashenko, exercise and banya both strengthen the immune system. I went to the Banya in Russia myself, very invigorating. He's definitely on to something. I will show this article to a friend, much merriment will ensue. Of course I can't even go to the steam room in my Virgin Active gym because the Thai leaders have bought into the social distancing mania, the worst of all measures.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Theoretically yes... until it mutates. 

 

There is enough research into Influenza that the next mutation can be predicted (kind-of) and we can vaccinated before the outbreaks occur (H1N1 outbreak in 2009 caught everyone out though). 

 

With similar research it may be possible to immunise against specific Coronaviruses. 

 

Ultimately the end goal is be immunise against all influenza types and coronaviruses. 

 

Of course, the frightener is then the next ’new thing’.... I wonder if as we evolve alongside these virus that our coexistence is essential and should we [humans] go too long without viral outbreaks we risk catastrophic impact far greater than we are seeing today.

 

 

Yes, but coronaviruses don't mutate as much as influenza viruses.  So when and if we get Coronavirus vaccines they should provide immunity longer. Because the number of mutations are small with coronaviruses, compared with influenza viruses, and thus the chance of new strains is reduced. In fact sometimes the mutations work in our favour, the SARS virus last a part of its genome related to transmission, which helped us. A mutation can be good as well. They've checked for mutations with SARS Cov2 and there aren't that many, and none of any consequence.

 

But yes, there is no guarantee that immunity will last as long as with smallpox. Every virus has its own story in its interaction with humans. We will have to see if we even get a vaccine that works 50% of the time like with swine flu.

 

If you think it through, and think a SARS1 that could spread like this, with a mortality rate of 10%, or a new virus that could be even worse that is terrifying. The precautions taken, the funding to fight pandemics, this will all increase and it will change our lives. Less funding for other diseases, what will air travel look like. Germany is giving immunity certificates, essential workers get pay raises, others don't and lose their jobs, crime will increase. It's a new world of fear. I pity my children, I really do.

 

You know a virus is Dr Evil when a virus can infect a bacteria. Viruses are so bad, they even infect bacteria.

 

And the worst: As far as human pathogens are concerned Viruses are the new kid on the block, the emerging superstar. Because the very vast majority of human pathogens are bacteria, but virus make up two thirds of new human pathogens. Why have viruses suddenly started to target us? Simple mathematics, since there's so many of us we make a good host. The virus needs cells. Just pure chance.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3427559/

 

It almost makes you think someone designed a limitation on upper population, if you didn't know better. Uncanny.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Logosone
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