Jump to content
BANGKOK

Recommended Posts

On 3/30/2020 at 11:15 AM, Logosone said:

You're right, a lock down at the beginning would have made sense, it would have avoided the dramatic numbers. But now that the virus has spread widely, that logic is becoming very flimsy.

 

China did not just lockdown. China used a variety of intervention measures simultaneously, including testing, identifying and isolating the infected, clinical management and restrictions of mobility. Chinese studies have not been able to determine how much of a reduction in transmission is to be attributed to each measure. So, basically there are three main measures:

 

1. Testing, identifying and isolating the infected

2. Clinical management of infected cases

3. Restrictions on movement

 

What if, it is 1 and 2 that are by far the most effective methods, and 3 only provides very small benefits? Why focus on that measure and not on the other two?

 

China is not a success story btw, it has one of the highest mortality rates. It remains to be seen what future waves will bring. In a way China is to blame for this social distancing focus.

 

What if it what was decided, ie restrictions on travel, social distancing, was wrong? What if taking the fight to the virus by testing and isolating is much more successful? Why follow a wrong decision? Personally I think the focus is on social distancing because it's much easier to set up a road block than to test, find and isolate the infected. The UK only focused on it because it had no test kits, so the testing and isolating option was not available to them.

 

Yes, the Thai request so far has been less draconian than it could be, but the restrictions are still very harsh. A lot of Thai business, owned by your fellow Thais, will go bankrupt and will never return. Have you thought about the catastrophic economic cost of the lockdown?

 

Yes, Farangs not wearing masks might be to your benefit, as it is more likely that herd immunity will set in in Thailand before mass testing would ever stop the virus, and social distancing can not stop the virus. The sooner everyone gets herd immunity the better it will be.  Obviously relying on the Thai government to test, identify and isolate all the infected is useless, as they have shown they are not able to do that.

 

 

 

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm...

 

Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/health/smart-thermometers-flu.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/31/2020 at 5:34 PM, bristolboy said:

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

Harsh measures, including stay-at-home orders and restaurant closures, are contributing to rapid drops in the numbers of fevers — a signal symptom of most coronavirus infections — recorded in states across the country, according to intriguing new data produced by a medical technology firm...

 

Since 2018, when it had more than 500,000 thermometers distributed, its predictions have routinely been two to three weeks ahead of those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which gathers flu data on patient symptoms from doctors’ offices and hospitals.

To identify clusters of coronavirus infections, Kinsa recently adapted its software to detect spikes of “atypical fever” that do not correlate with historical flu patterns and are likely attributable to the coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/health/smart-thermometers-flu.html

Yeah, that study is old news, it's from a company touting its temperature scanners. It has not been independently reviewed.

 

The reduction in fevers could just be because people are a lot of more careful now, washing their hands, so there is less flu and common cold, hence the drop in fevers. Just counting any and all spike in fever as Covid19 of course does not make it so. It could easily be a flu or cold related temperature. Kinsa didn't check.

 

Their data is pretty useless.

 

But no doubt we will see claims that "see social distancing works" when the numbers go down. As several measures are thrown at the virus simultaenously it is not really possible to untangle which measure caused what degree of reduction in transmission. So social distancing fanatics can easily take the credit for a reduction in cases that is really due to testing and isolating the infected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yeah, that study is old news, it's from a company touting its temperature scanners. It has not been independently reviewed.

 

The reduction in fevers could just be because people are a lot of more careful now, washing their hands, so there is less flu and common cold, hence the drop in fevers. Just counting any and all spike in fever as Covid19 of course does not make it so. It could easily be a flu or cold related temperature. Kinsa didn't check.

 

Their data is pretty useless.

 

But no doubt we will see claims that "see social distancing works" when the numbers go down. As several measures are thrown at the virus simultaenously it is not really possible to untangle which measure caused what degree of reduction in transmission. So social distancing fanatics can easily take the credit for a reduction in cases that is really due to testing and isolating the infected.

Or face masks in places where required by the owner!😂😂😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Or face masks in places where required by the owner!😂😂😂

Face masks do nothing to end the virus.

 

Totally useless.

 

Germany is a case in point. Hardly anyone wears masks and still half the mortality rate of South Korea. Wearing a mask is not really required to combat this virus.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Face masks do nothing to end the virus.

 

Totally useless.

 

Germany is a case in point. Hardly anyone wears masks and still half the mortality rate of South Korea. Wearing a mask is not really required to combat this virus.

Swoooosh!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...