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I don't pretend to be an economics expert, I know a bit that i picked up on the hoof but by no means an expert.

 

I was wondering, depending on how hard the thai economy gets hit, do you think it may be possible for the thai government to make the decision to dabble with 'quantitative easing'?

 

If they do decide to do some, I can see the baht taking a bit of a hit, which would be very beneficial to people who bring in money from abroad as the exchange rate would improve.

 

If this economic disruption drags on for months, I can't see how they could avoid it, if only to stop huge public dissent against the government.

 

All the major economies are having to do it.

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2 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Looking at what Thais get as a pension ( 500 baht/month at 60 ), I don't think there's any danger of the government going overboard on the money printing front.

A strong baht means tanks, aircraft and submarines are less expensive. You can join the dots from there.

But surely the Baht is going to be weakened anyway by the mere fact that Thailand has now closed her borders to foreigners and suspended tourism. that in itself is going to make demand for the Baht fall off a cliff and demand for a currency is what gives it its strength, or at least it is the main factor.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Susco said:

You do understand that demand for virtually every other currency in the world falls at the same time?

Not countries who rely on tourism for 12% of their GDP, and the USD by the way is absolutely flying.

 

For example, i can't see why demand for the AUD or the EURO or the GBP would fall at the same rate as the THB. Usually a country looks for an excuse to devalue its currency to keep its exports healthy.

 

An economy doesn't grow because of the domestic part of its economic system,. it only grows because of the money it brings in from outside in the form of exports and tourism.

 

Like I said, I am no economics expert.

 

I was watching the Keiser report the other day and Max Keiser (and he knows economics) suggested that this could see virtually the whole world hit the print button.

Edited by Brewster67

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16 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

But surely the Baht is going to be weakened anyway by the mere fact that Thailand has now closed her borders to foreigners and suspended tourism. that in itself is going to make demand for the Baht fall off a cliff and demand for a currency is what gives it its strength, or at least it is the main factor.

The Baht weakening is relative...when the US Dollar is being forced down by 0% rates and quantitative easing again....the big fish determines the relative strength of the pair. the only reason there hass been any strengthening of the Dollar is as the safety trade...same for the Japanese Yen...when things go completely off the rails...Dollars and Yen are the only things people want to own. I don't expect much change from where we are no respective to Baht/Dollar....only when the US changes it's posture in any economic stabilization will there likely be any real movement. 

 

 

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Don't forget everything is 100% under control the PM said so but may need some tactical adjustment coincidentally also 100%  🤔

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48 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

But surely the Baht is going to be weakened anyway by the mere fact that Thailand has now closed her borders to foreigners and suspended tourism. that in itself is going to make demand for the Baht fall off a cliff and demand for a currency is what gives it its strength, or at least it is the main factor.

So far the baht isn't going off a cliff.....

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5 minutes ago, Youlike said:

So far the baht isn't going off a cliff.....

Well on Friday it went from 37.42 to the GDP to 40.55 that is an 8.5% change in a single day and only being held off because of the weekend where most major trading is suspended... Wait till the forex markets reopen tomorrow., and that is against the GBP which is taking a battering from its own problems.

 

This change didn't happen against the USd because I think the USD is going to possibly take its own hit.

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57 minutes ago, Brewster67 said:

I was watching the Keiser report the other day and Max Keiser (and he knows economics) suggested that this could see virtually the whole world hit the print button.

This would be a great opportunity to have a global reset because most governments are over extended by conventional standards and most will suffer a hit to GDP.

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