How the Pandemic Will End

[Jonathan Fairfield]

How the Pandemic Will End

 

 

The U.S. may end up with the worst Covid-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.

Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

 

A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable. In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his TED Talk. In 2018, I wrote a story for The Atlantic arguing that America was not ready for the pandemic that would eventually come. In October, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security war-gamed what might happen if a new coronavirus swept the globe. And then one did. Hypotheticals became reality. “What if?” became “Now what?”

 

So, now what? In the late hours of last Wednesday, which now feels like the distant past, I was talking about the pandemic with a pregnant friend who was days away from her due date. We realized that her child might be one of the first of a new cohort who are born into a society profoundly altered by COVID-19. We decided to call them Generation C.

 

As we’ll see, Gen C’s lives will be shaped by the choices made in the coming weeks, and by the losses we suffer as a result. But first, a brief reckoning. On the Global Health Security Index, a report card that grades every country on its pandemic preparedness, the United States has a score of 83.5 — the world’s highest. Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed.

 

“No matter what, a virus [like SARS-CoV-2] was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems,” says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine. More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.

 

Full story: https://medium.com/the-atlantic/how-the-pandemic-will-end-c6200beea706

 

[Sharp]

https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/dr-fauci-concedes-coronavirus-death-rate-like-bad-flu/

[jaideeguy]

3 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.

We'll [I'm the US now] pay the price that the 'ORANGE BABOON' imposed by trivializing it in the beginning when it could have made a difference.  Now, he is rushing to catch up with the 'third world' and pushing his snake oil and making supply promises that can't be fulfilled on such short notice, meanwhile patting himself on the back to position himself for the next 4 years and people are stupid enough to believe him.

[dayward1]

37 minutes ago, Proboscis said:

while all the other statistics are at their quarterly average, coronavirus is still ramping up. If we did nothing and based on the current version of the virus and its mortality rate, you could be looking at 60million to 100million. A more virulent version would give us a far higher mortality rate.

 

This would be many times mortality stated in the other statistics.

blah blah blah .... baaaa, baaaa, baaaaa  Do you think that the other averages aren't ramping up as well? Due to this BS?

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by dayward1
.

[Antonymous]

13 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

 

Can we all please stop this silly speculation. C'est la vie. If COVID-19 doesn't wipe us out, global warming surely will.

 

(Oh dear, now I've caught the speculation virus!).

[allanos]

I was told recently that babies born during the pandemic will in future be called "Coronials"!

[ChrisKC]

The number of global infections as at 14.00, 30 March is 723,700, not the "now" 446,000- hopelessly out of date!

[RedPill]

Yes, great statistics ... only 21k from corona ... not worth the effort.

 

Just let it run, do nothing ... is that what people are suggesting when posting these 'other statistics'?

 

Also, cigarettes, alcohol, HIV/AIDS ... a little bit different, I could avoid this if I take care.

 

If there are 2 million ppl infected with a fast spreading corona virus around me, that's a bit of a different story, or not?

 

People who post stuff like this, should book a flight to India ... almost nothing there, yet. 

It's a relative safe place, compared to all the 'other statistics'.

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by RedPill

[30la]

It has never happened before that the world population was so controlled and willing to follow all the rules imposed by governments ... isn't it perhaps a general test for something bigger?

[Krataiboy]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US front man for managing the "pandemic," has just written an article that ought to be titled: I WAS WRONG AND THIS IS MY CONFESSION.

 

Writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, March 26, under the heading "Covid-19 - Navigating the Uncharted", Fauci states: "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. (my itals).

 

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968). . . "

In case there is any doubt, those "pandemic influenza seasons" of 1957 and 1968 did NOT result in any lockdowns.  People went outdoors.  They mingled.  They sat in stadiums.  They went to their jobs. 

 

Which begs an obvious question. . . 

 

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/29/turn-the-economy-back-on-even-fauci-is-confessing/

 

Snap! On the advice of its health experts, the UK Government officially downgraded the threat of the virus eleven days ago, stating on the Public Health UK website it was "no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease".

 

The surprise good news was studiously ignored by UK mainstream media, and a week later the British government's draconian "lockdown" Bill sailed through Parliament.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82qsclco1Oo

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Krataiboy

[xtrnuno41]

 

 

 

 

So Corona isnt there yet, not in time , not in cases and losts, just started.

Then we couldnt do a thing bout it and so today we cant, but to keep distance and minimum contact. its up to our selves what we make of this

[Ebumbu]

Exponential growth. Doubles every three days. 1% fatality rate is 10x that of the flu. Either one comprehends the difference from flu, or they don't. 

[Logosone]

6 minutes ago, Ebumbu said:

Exponential growth. Doubles every three days. 1% fatality rate is 10x that of the flu. Either one comprehends the difference from flu, or they don't. 

Or either one comprehends mortality rates or one doesn't.

[tomazbodner]

It's 20,000 baht/night private hospital accommodation for COVID infected now that public hospitals are full.

 

I wonder if any of you above, saying COVID is a less concern than more or less everything else in that list, is willing to get infected and then enjoy 2 months (which seems to be the time patients stay hospitalised in Thailand) - collected up-front in case you kick the bucket in between - to prove your point?

 

Maybe also explain this one:

 

 

It is all nothing, right? You can live without lungs, piece of cake...

 

[JayBird]

The question I have is:

 

Given how many people die from those other items on the list, why don't we discuss, report, or otherwise worry about them to the same scale of how we respond to COVID-19.

 

 

[jak2002003]

1 hour ago, xtrnuno41 said:

 

 

 

 

So Corona isnt there yet, not in time , not in cases and losts, just started.

Then we couldnt do a thing bout it and so today we cant, but to keep distance and minimum contact. its up to our selves what we make of this

Back in that day I bet they had more social distancing naturally then we are having now with the stay safe advice.  I mean, they did not have crowded subway trains, they were not packed like sardines in airplanes or airports, were not panic buying and jostling for position in supermarkets, and were not crammed into shopping malls on weekends or on month long holidays on a cruse ships with the population of a small city.  

15 minutes ago, JayBird said:

The question I have is:

 

Given how many people die from those other items on the list, why don't we discuss, report, or otherwise worry about them to the same scale of how we respond to COVID-19.

 

 

Because that is old news and not exciting for the media to report on.  This thing is brand new, never been seen before and grabs peoples attention, and with all the social media and hyped up reporting on the TV it causes mass panic, wild rumours, panic buying, social unrest at all levels.  

 

I am not saying we should ignore it or play it down, that would be foolish.  But so is scaremongering, always reporting on worst case scenarios and the mad fake news abounding on social media.  

Edited March 30, 2020 by jak2002003

[Billy Bloggs]

Why wouldnt America have a great big problem when you have a Mayor screaming your not going to lock New York down, nah let em all scatter and infect more people.

 

[RedPill]

2 hours ago, CGW said:

^Please change forum name to "blue pill" might give you more optimism?

You can put whatever color you want ... just follow what's going on re infection rates and how would it look like if nothing is done?

 

I'm usually a very optimistic person, just can't follow some of those comments ... comparing the death of alcohol, cigarettes, HIV (where ppl have a choice to take that risk) to 'only' 21k corona death cases (where ppl don't have that much choice, if ppl around you are infected)  ... and these are not the final numbers.

 

Maybe I'm just too realistic.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by RedPill

[CharlieH]

A post with unsubstantiated material and no source has been removed along with any responses quoting it.

 

If you are going to quote facts or figures you need to have a reliable credible source and a valid link to it or it will be removed.

[RedPill]

I always wonder what the hidden agenda/goal is from those ppl who put these 'unrelated' stats together?

 

I find this completely dumb and uneducated. And others just blindly sharing it, that's not smarter either.

 

Just 2 weeks ago I've been in a very good clinch with one of my old FB 'friends', sharing all kind of weird stuff ... 

"... 80% of ppl in China are recovered, meanwhile everyone in Europe is in panic mode?". As if this would be totally unjustified.

 

And now look, 2 weeks later ... what happened in Europe, and the US now?

 

If I look what's going on in India at the moment, with 1.4 billion ppl ... that's a bomb going to explode, sooner than later.

I truly hope not.

 

Optimism, sure yes, but only up to a realistic level. 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by RedPill

[Sheryl]

Post spouting unproven conspiracy theory has been removed.

[natway09]

Far too many of your posts are using days old information .

Have a look at Italy's death toll last night & weep.

Now "the goose" has woken up in the US even he predicts 100,000 deaths in the US,

rather than we will all be at Church at Easter

The writer got so carried away he forgot to use his crystal ball & tell us the ending.

I for one think that 5 months from now things may get back to normal

[rickudon]

Right time for a dose of reality. So far covid-19 has infected only 0,01% of the worlds population, but has so far killed over 30,000 people. Lets say for every diagnosed person there are 4 more who are not and only have mild symptoms (this is one area for which there are no reliable data), so lets say 0.05% of the population have it. If allowed to spread, shall we say eventually 20% of people catch it, but that might take a couple of years. How many times greater than 0.05% is 20%? Answer, 400 times. 400 x 30,000 = 12 million dead. Not exactly flu.

 

Or take Italy. In one month, covid-19 has killed nearly 11,000 people. But so far it has still not infected even 1% of the population. The eventual death toll will be more like 200,000 (but could be a factor of 10 lower or higher....), hardly a normal flu season. These 'experts' are just being optimistic, probably because they have been ordered to do so.

 

What it all boils down too, is do you want to save people or the economy? A stark choice.

[Jip99]

[Sheryl]

9 minutes ago, rickudon said:

Right time for a dose of reality. So far covid-19 has infected only 0,01% of the worlds population, but has so far killed over 30,000 people. Lets say for every diagnosed person there are 4 more who are not and only have mild symptoms (this is one area for which there are no reliable data), so lets say 0.05% of the population have it. If allowed to spread, shall we say eventually 20% of people catch it, but that might take a couple of years. How many times greater than 0.05% is 20%? Answer, 400 times. 400 x 30,000 = 12 million dead. Not exactly flu.

 

 

On the contrary. New strains of flu can be very deadly.

 

Spanish flu killed somewhere between 17 - 50 million people and some think even more...a hundred years ago when the world's population was much smaller.

 

Seasonal flus kill smaller (but still significant numbers) of people because there is already a fair amount of acquired immunity in the population.

 

For decades now there has been fear of what would happen when, inevitably, a new strain of the  influenza virus capable of fast spread got loose. As it happens it occurred not with an influenza virus bit a corona virus but this distinction is not especially important. What is important is that there is no pre-existing immunity and it spreads efficiently and fast.

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

26 minutes ago, rickudon said:

What it all boils down too, is do you want to save people or the economy? A stark choice.

It's not that binary, it just feels like that now because preparedness wasn't anywhere near the level it should have been and we're seeing hard core countermeasures tried out because of the lack of time. 

 

If, and that's a very big if, the time gained from those measures is used well and more subtle methods are developed during the lull, then the need for curfews and such diminishes and the stark choice might not have to be done at all.

Here's some thoughts about it: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

And that doesn't even include using state of the art AI tech to trace and isolate clusters.

[TheDark]

I'm guessing coronavirus will come back multiple times. 

 

While there is going to be global shutdown of people traveling from one location to another, that will isolate countries from each others. There will be a lot nationalistic talk between populations of the big world powers. Mainly USA and China.

 

Russia has already sent thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks to the Ukrainian border. What comes next, well, hopefully nothing. 

 

As economies go down, unemployment increases, this will increase crime rate around the world during and after the first stage of epidemic (3-6 months).

 

Hopefully the populations around the world will see the difference between real and populist leaders during the times of crisis. 

 

Nobody will talk about silly stuff and universities are open again for real debates without safe places. 

 

In a way covid-19 is a worldwide reality check and leads to more sustainable and basic values.

[Krataiboy]

5 hours ago, Ebumbu said:

Exponential growth. Doubles every three days. 1% fatality rate is 10x that of the flu. Either one comprehends the difference from flu, or they don't. 

Not so. Read my subsequent posting on the downgrading of the latest corona virus threat by the experts in the US and Britain.

[bermondburi]

12 minutes ago, Krataiboy said:

Not so. Read my subsequent posting on the downgrading of the latest corona virus threat by the experts in the US and Britain.

Not exactly a downgrading, but there is clarity here. 

 

https://reason-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&fbclid=IwAR1wv-ovjUBm5cNYTXxPNX8pF4tuyr0kGnUJjUgQ7qpVkk18ZX7caOKH4gc&amp&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15855796779782&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Freason.com%2F2020%2F03%2F27%2Fno-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths%2F

[mike787]

with a vaccine.