Thailand reports 136 new COVID-19 cases

[sandrabbit]

21 minutes ago, wasabi said:

There is near universal consensus on Thai Visa that the numbers are unreported however I don't form that opinion based on a few anecdotal reports of virus sightings. Thai's love to gossip and as much as this virus is a nightmare it is a dream come true for spreading rumors.

I agree 100% with your view but I'm concerned about the lack of information regarding infections in Rayong (and elsewhere) especially now that after the emergency decree only the government is allowed to publish covid 19 news about Thailand infections. If anyone has a link to the latest official data I would be grateful.

 

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/important-notice

[pedro01]

1 hour ago, robblok said:

I read that now that infections in provinces rise faster than in BKK. Probably because of returnin Thais and the lax attitude outside Bangkok and its surroundings.

 

Could skyrocket in the provinces unless they starting to do what BKK did.

 what BKK did????

 

Skytrain, airport link, MRT all still open. Everyone still going to work. Bangkok is a covid petri dish.

 

 

[simtemple]

1 hour ago, GordyS said:

If you look at the whole world there are only a few countries at present getting absolutely hammered by this.

 

HK still only has 4 deaths

Singapore - 3 deaths

Japan - 130 million people and only 54 deaths

 

Every country using different testing levels and cause of death.

 

Hard to work out at the moment if this is worth closing the world down for 

New Zealand has a population of approx 4.8 million. Transmission and mortality models, based on hospital resources, suggested that approx 80,000 New Zealanders would die if they didn't implement a stage 4 lockdown. To date one death has occurred. 

[emptypockets]

4 minutes ago, simtemple said:

New Zealand has a population of approx 4.8 million. Transmission and mortality models, based on hospital resources, suggested that approx 80,000 New Zealanders would die if they didn't implement a stage 4 lockdown. To date one death has occurred. 

And that was from boredom.

[robblok]

29 minutes ago, pedro01 said:

 what BKK did????

 

Skytrain, airport link, MRT all still open. Everyone still going to work. Bangkok is a covid petri dish.

 

 

All sports events are cancelled, restaurants closed, whole malls closed. People are wearing masks. Sure there are some risk places but if you  hear what they are doing in the provinces is that thye havent closed a thing and people are partying not doing a thing.

[Berkshire]

I was watching CNN this morning and some people--even doctors--were still hoping that the warm weather might slow down or stop the COVID in the USA...sort of like what happens with influenza.  I hate to burst their bubble, but it's hotter than heck in Thailand and we've still got the COVID!

[Timwin]

The sister virus SARS and temperature:

 

"Abstract

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log₁₀) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS."

 

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

Glad I only use the Aircon set at 28 in the condo, and in the room I am in at the time, the others stay off and the condo stays at about 30 on Average.  I also use a humidifier to keep the moisture the air creates so I do not dry like a prune, also run air purifiers.  I have plenty of filtrate at least enough to last 6 months.  I hope this is enough, but then its an unknown.  Stay safe folks, and try and maintain a positive attitude that will keep you from being depressed.

Edited March 30, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[emptypockets]

11 minutes ago, Timwin said:

The sister virus SARS and temperature:

 

"Abstract

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log₁₀) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS."

 

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

 

 

Report is nearly 10 years old. The only mention of sister virus is your comment.

I do hope hot weather has a mitigating effect on the virus but I'm not confident that that will be the case sadly

[dinsdale]

34 minutes ago, Mung said:

the US has tested over 300,000 people, the UK now over 100,000 people, South Korea over 350,000 people, and then we have Thailand with... less than 15,000 (most recent data I could find) 

Says a great deal about the current situaltion. Times test by ten or twenty here and maybe 10,000+ cases. no science to this, Just a gues.

[Timwin]

16 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Report is nearly 10 years old. The only mention of sister virus is your comment.

I do hope hot weather has a mitigating effect on the virus but I'm not confident that that will be the case sadly

 

Wrong, they are both coronaviruses. The name for this current virus is actually SARS-CoV-2...

[NordicDemon]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Over 2000 by end of the wk. Maybe more. It depends how they are testing and assigning cause of death. Heard that Germany is putting cause of death down to underlying conditions. If you get the virus and that complicates the uderlying condition that leads to death then it's the underlying condition that killed you. The fact that this would not have happened if you did not get the virus doesn't matter. Germany as of yesterday: 62,465 cases with 541 deaths. Anyway I still think Thailand's numbers do not reflect what's happening. Back to Don't test. Don't tell. And also how are they determining cause of death. Still where i am there's high 90% wearing masks. The next couple of wk should show if this is flattening out. Of course if there was more much testing we would be seeing a different picture.

I agree with most of what you wrote. But while I'm not stating that you're wrong about Germany, I doubt that's true in its case. The mortality rate of covid-19 in Germany is only a bit higher than in Norway, where it's about 0.55%, and Norway doesn't automatically attribute the cause of death to an underlying condition either. While every infected person who've died in Norway have had an underlying condition, the causes of death for those are still registered as covid-19. https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/

 

But I definitely agree with you that Thailand's numbers may not reflect what's happening. As you wrote, it comes down to testing and assigning cause of death. Because of those issues, we might not see an exponential growth in the infection rate or death rate in Thailand at all, especially if testing doesn't become more widespread. The mortality rate of covid-19 in Thailand will likely appear to remain very low as well. But something similar might happen with large-scale testing too, as seen in Germany and Norway. Both countries have tested a relatively large number of people and identified several cases in every age group ranging from 0-100+. As most people won't become seriously ill from covid-19, and young and healthy people cope better with the infection than others, that brings the mortality rate down statistically.

[emptypockets]

7 minutes ago, Timwin said:

 

Wrong, they are both coronaviruses. The name for this current virus is actually SARS-CoV-2...

Yes I know that. The report did not mention a sister virus. Only you did. I stand by my comment. But that is nether here nor there. The important 'what if' is the question of ambient temperature. I don't think anyone knows with any degree of certainty just yet.

Edited March 30, 2020 by emptypockets

[NightSky]

25 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Yes I know that. The report did not mention a sister virus. Only you did. I stand by my comment. But that is nether here nor there. The important 'what if' is the question of ambient temperature. I don't think anyone knows with any degree of certainty just yet.

I hope the theories are right about the climate making a difference..

 

As you say there is no certainty at all yet that this is the case..

 

I just hope its true.

Edited March 30, 2020 by NightSky

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, Berkshire said:

I was watching CNN this morning and some people--even doctors--were still hoping that the warm weather might slow down or stop the COVID in the USA...sort of like what happens with influenza.  I hate to burst their bubble, but it's hotter than heck in Thailand and we've still got the COVID!

If the weather made no difference then we would have hundreds of thousands of cases.

 

Nobody said hot weather stops it dead, if someone coughs in your direction no matter how hot it is then you're going to catch it easily.

[GordyS]

12 minutes ago, ukrules said:

If the weather made no difference then we would have hundreds of thousands of cases.

 

Nobody said hot weather stops it dead, if someone coughs in your direction no matter how hot it is then you're going to catch it easily.

Thailand's flu season is in a couple of months.

They could easily get a second wave then

[Dap]

5 hours ago, Eibot said:

Read that aswell. I believe it was on The Express. Their other article was that they found an Alien skull on Mars that looked suspiciously a lot like an ordinary rock ????

 

Covid-19 has a very distinctive death. You choke. You cannot simply put that down to another cause than Covid-19. I have a feeling that other countries question the numbers of Germany (aswell as the USA), due to the low death numbers. Truth is that they just test and have been testing a lot more than other countries and therefore it shows the true numbers. Just like SK has. 

"and therefore it shows the true numbers"     Awfully sure of yourself just reading the same things as everyone else, eh? Especially knowing the "true" of it all. That's one h*llova' crystal ball you got there mate  

[Berkshire]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

If the weather made no difference then we would have hundreds of thousands of cases.

 

Nobody said hot weather stops it dead, if someone coughs in your direction no matter how hot it is then you're going to catch it easily.

I would love to believe that hot/humid weather can diminish this virus.  Truth is nobody knows for sure.  But Thailand is in a nationwide lockdown in the middle of summer, so this theory is not being taken seriously by the medical community.

[ThailandRyan]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

If the weather made no difference then we would have hundreds of thousands of cases.

 

Nobody said hot weather stops it dead, if someone coughs in your direction no matter how hot it is then you're going to catch it easily.

So there goes sitting on my balcony, the downstairs neighbor can cough and then I guess I am just <deleted>......

Edited March 30, 2020 by metisdead
8.) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.

[Sheryl]

6 hours ago, sandrabbit said:

Unless there are people going round deliberately spreading rumours these figures seem wrong. Over the weekend my BIL told my wife that near where he lives ( a town NE of Rayong city, not giving exact place scared of prison ) that 3 people had died and 6 were infected and the locals were scared now. My BIL is far from a rumour monger so he must believe it. Also, the same day I was told that a resort worker had been diagnosed with the infection

 

There is a middle ground between deliberately spreading false rumors and being totally correct.

 

There is unintentionally spreading false rumors (because you believe the person who told it to you) and there is also actual facts being read into/elaborated. 

 

Somebody has the flu, assumes it is COVID, tells others it is, but later it turns out it wasn't. Too late, already enshrined locally as fact and probably by the 3rd retelling up to 3 people with COVID.

 

Someone dies in the hospital, assumed immediately to have been a COVID death but maybe wasn't, same pattern makes the rounds and gets amplified.

 

Someone gets tested, that is all it takes to be assume COVID and by the time it reaches the 3rd person's ear it is 5 people and one of them died.

 

Not saying there are no cases in your BIL's town, but things people say based on what they have heard/assumed/been told by others are not very reliable in the best of times and least of all now.

 

 

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed. 

 

A post using a video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed. 

[ParkerN]

6 hours ago, GordyS said:

Thailand's flu season is in a couple of months.

They could easily get a second wave then

Well, call me a pessimist, but I don't think Covid-19 has finished with Thailand, not by a long way, and Prayuth will be acknowledged as having cooked the books. Of course it won't be his fault, it'll be someone else's fault. Naturally.

 

[ThailandRyan]

53 minutes ago, ParkerN said:

Well, call me a pessimist, but I don't think Covid-19 has finished with Thailand, not by a long way, and Prayuth will be acknowledged as having cooked the books. Of course it won't be his fault, it'll be someone else's fault. Naturally.

 

Yes as A Nut In has said it will be because a dirty foreigner brought it here, of course blaming the west and not China.

[sandrabbit]

5 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

There is a middle ground between deliberately spreading false rumors and being totally correct.

 

There is unintentionally spreading false rumors (because you believe the person who told it to you) and there is also actual facts being read into/elaborated. 

 

Somebody has the flu, assumes it is COVID, tells others it is, but later it turns out it wasn't. Too late, already enshrined locally as fact and probably by the 3rd retelling up to 3 people with COVID.

 

Someone dies in the hospital, assumed immediately to have been a COVID death but maybe wasn't, same pattern makes the rounds and gets amplified.

 

Someone gets tested, that is all it takes to be assume COVID and by the time it reaches the 3rd person's ear it is 5 people and one of them died.

 

Not saying there are no cases in your BIL's town, but things people say based on what they have heard/assumed/been told by others are not very reliable in the best of times and least of all now.

 

 

I think the biggest problem is that we are not being updated like we would be if we were in our original countries. I can't find any clear information about the situation in Rayong, I'm not scared of the virus but I am wary and would like to be appraised of the infections in our state. Up until Saturday night the bars and restaurants were still open as normal here and even still today there were Bangkok tourists who had driven here, there is so much conflicting information such as Bangkok being in lockdown and travel between states being restricted. I realise there is a difference in education here and what the government tell their citizens but I would prefer the truth.

[humbug]

5 hours ago, sandrabbit said:

I think the biggest problem is that we are not being updated like we would be if we were in our original countries. I can't find any clear information about the situation in Rayong, I'm not scared of the virus but I am wary and would like to be appraised of the infections in our state. Up until Saturday night the bars and restaurants were still open as normal here and even still today there were Bangkok tourists who had driven here, there is so much conflicting information such as Bangkok being in lockdown and travel between states being restricted. I realise there is a difference in education here and what the government tell their citizens but I would prefer the truth.

These gangsters will never do mass free testing, or even mass testing on a par with Germany, US, Taiwan, S.Korea, forget the gangsters in CCP China, their numbers are a joke too 

 

so you have Thailand for 10-12 weeks of known public infections, true infections could go back to December, that means already lightly infected, meaning people who won’t know they even have the virus, and never need hospital treatment, are already in 100’s of thousands, or touching low millions,

 

it’s much better now to allow ‘herd immunity’, that means the virus will find it difficult to gain new hosts, when so many have had the virus from tiny to serious infections, better to protect the older generation, or those most at risk, prepare more icu beds, and put out public awareness messages constantly with hygiene practices, and open up the economy

 

this hiding behind the news of New York and London, and giving out cash handouts, hoping to be a savior and game more followers, cannot last into May, they are now pushing 20-30 million to the brink of bankruptcy, and every day issuing roughly 100 new infections and 9 deaths in 10 weeks, it’s becoming twisted

 

I would never want to downplay any infectious virus, especially from virus capital China, but just playing with peoples minds and livelihoods, and letting rumors go crazy, will just send people into constant meltdowns, they either take it seriously with testing and protecting those at most risk, or just stop the pretense and let the virus run it’s course 

Edited March 31, 2020 by humbug

[ParkerN]

9 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yes as A Nut In has said it will be because a dirty foreigner brought it here, of course blaming the west and not China.

Best thing in my opinion, is to look after number one and to look after the health of number one, and let the rest look after themselves. This is not my original POV, this is the attitude I have been forced to take after many years watching Thais blame foreigners for things they should be taking responsibility for themselves.

 

So I'm going to look after number one (that’s me) and my health, and I'm not going to fret about Thais. Their problem is their problem, not mine. If they want to put up with an ex-Army officer who has his own agenda managing them and their country, that's up to them. If they want to go through life blaming other people for problems they cause or tolerate, that's up to them too. Similarly, NMP.

 

It serves me right really for expecting First World mentality from Third World people. Still, we live and learn, life is a learning process. It's not a mistake I will make again.

 

As for COVID-19, I am of the view that there's quite a lot we don't know about this and it has the potential to be very destructive in Thailand, given the almost legendary incompetence and indiscipline of Thais. I don't believe the origins of the virus have been truthfully described by either China or the USA and, particularly in Thailand, I don't believe the impact has been properly documented, or anything like it.

 

I will not however be a victim if I can avoid it. Thais always look after themselves first and everybody else second. From now on that is going to be my policy as well and if they don't like it,  well, that's a bit of bad luck, they've had all they're getting out of this little black duck.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by ParkerN

[ParkerN]

21 hours ago, webfact said:

No new deaths were reported, and the overall death toll stood at seven since the outbreak began in January.

I seriously doubt this number is even close to the reality.

[Yadon Toploy]

17 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Report is nearly 10 years old. The only mention of sister virus is your comment.

I do hope hot weather has a mitigating effect on the virus but I'm not confident that that will be the case sadly

He's on every thread with the same nonsense.

 

Better off ignored.

[dinsdale]

20 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Over 2000 by end of the wk. Maybe more. It depends how they are testing and assigning cause of death. Heard that Germany is putting cause of death down to underlying conditions. If you get the virus and that complicates the uderlying condition that leads to death then it's the underlying condition that killed you. The fact that this would not have happened if you did not get the virus doesn't matter. Germany as of yesterday: 62,465 cases with 541 deaths. Anyway I still think Thailand's numbers do not reflect what's happening. Back to Don't test. Don't tell. And also how are they determining cause of death. Still where i am there's high 90% wearing masks. The next couple of wk should show if this is flattening out. Of course if there was more much testing we would be seeing a different picture.

Wrong about Germany. Sorry. The low numbers seem to be down to a huge testing regime now 500,000 per day. Identify as many vectors as poss. and isolate them from society or early medical intervention will reduce death rate. Along with this Germany does have an excellent medical system.

[fcbkk]

22 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Wrong about Germany. Sorry. The low numbers seem to be down to a huge testing regime now 500,000 per day. Identify as many vectors as poss. and isolate them from society or early medical intervention will reduce death rate. Along with this Germany does have an excellent medical system.

 

Friends in Germany told me the acceleration of testing is beginning now. Not sure it is 500k, but it seems to signal a shift of strategy towards the South Korea model with aggressive testing and contact tracing. 

 

At the beginning there was not so much testing and similar to Thailand people with mild symptoms wishing to be tested were rejected, unless they were in a high risk group (recent CN travel etc). 

 

I guess the relatively low death rate so far rather reflects the quality of the medical system only, with more staff and beds for the population compared to many other countries. Hence their ability to take in patients from Italy and France. 

 

Physical distancing was not followed well at the beginning, but seems much better now. Hope this helps to reduce the number of new infections, otherwise their systems could become overwhelmed too.