Grim forecast of coronavirus infections refuted by senior health official

[webfact]

Grim forecast of coronavirus infections refuted by senior health official

 

 

A senior doctor at Thailand’s Disease Control Department (DCD), has dismissed as “very unlikely” the grim forecast by some doctors that by April 15th COVID-19 infections in Thailand will reach 350,000, with about 7,000 fatalities.

 

DCD Deputy Director-General Dr. Thanarak Phlipat said on Facebook today that he has received many enquiries about whether forecasts of an exponential rise in the number of infections and fatalities is reasonable. He responded by saying it is “very unlikely.”

 

With less than 20 days to go before April 15th, Dr. Thanarak said that the predictions of 7,000 fatalities for Thailand, in the case of no lockdowns, and 485, if a lockdown is imposed, are inflated. Thailand’s death toll up to March 29th stood at 7, out of the 1,388 confirmed COVID-19 infections.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/grim-forecast-of-coronavirus-infections-refuted-by-senior-health-official/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-03-30

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[Thailand]

Assuming the current figures are correct.

 

Otherwise,who knows.

[Justgrazing]

10 minutes ago, webfact said:

senior doctor at Thailand’s Disease Control Department (DCD), has dismissed as “very unlikely” the grim forecast by some doctors that by April 15th COVID-19 infections in Thailand will reach 350,000, with about 7,000 fatalities

What does he base his scepticism on .. In every country this has gripped the number's have dramatically increased day on day with a mortality rate of at least 5% in some countries despite the best efforts to contain it .. and yet here again they are batting away what could and may well happen with their customary head in the sand outlook .. 

 

Nowt so blind as those who don't want to see .. 

[Andrew Dwyer]

The number of cases and fatalities in Thailand on April 15th will be whatever they tell us that they are on that day.
 

Unless anyone has a way of disclosing the actual figures other than the government figures ??

[ThailandRyan]

I have seen into the future.....the numbers daily will always be in the 100's...

[madmitch]

The number of cases is driectly proportional to the number of people tested.....probably.

 

That will generally be the case when the numbers tested are low. Increase etesting and you'll get a more realistic trend.

[Andy from Kent]

We will all  face the ravishes of this  pandemic equally  short of the opportunities  the mega rich have to avoid it.

 

It won't be easy for most of us but  that's just how it is.

 

Worrying about what we can't control seems like a waste to me.

 

I'd rather think about  flowers or anything else   rather than how bad things are.

 

Maybe this is the time for  all the "fire and Brimstone" members to come forward if that's what  get them interested. 

 

[dinsdale]

Don't Test. Don't Tell. Assign cause of death to underlying health issues and he's probably right.

[dinsdale]

26 minutes ago, Andy from Kent said:

We will all  face the ravishes of this  pandemic equally  short of the opportunities  the mega rich have to avoid it.

 

It won't be easy for most of us but  that's just how it is.

 

Worrying about what we can't control seems like a waste to me.

 

I'd rather think about  flowers or anything else   rather than how bad things are.

 

Maybe this is the time for  all the "fire and Brimstone" members to come forward if that's what  get them interested. 

 

We can all help control it. NPI everyone. The govt didn't close the borders early enough (listened to CCP and WHO) and people didn't employ NPI soon enough BUT everyone has a role to play. Head in the sand may not be the best way to go. If everyone thought this way then we will be forced into it a 24hr ongoing curfew. Protecting others from yourself and yourself from others is a must.

[lujanit]

In any country controlled by an authoritarian regime, a dictator or a military ‘government’ the truth is what they say it is.  China, North Korea, Burma and Russia are examples.  If you think Thailand falls into any of categories so be it.

 

They have no interest in telling the truth on any subject.  They want people dumb in case the truth causes people to revolt.

 

Mushrooms and dark places come to mind.

[OneeyedJohn]

This is depressing me.

We have had no village water for 6 days now, our well is quite deep, but it is not enough for my wife and I to wash and to water the garden.

If it doesn't rain soon we will be out completely.

A groundwater drill will cost 100,000 baht apparently, so when I suggested we do this my wife said what's the point we may not be here in 2 years.

I am thinking at this rate we may not see Christmas.

[GordyS]

12 minutes ago, OneeyedJohn said:

This is depressing me.

We have had no village water for 6 days now, our well is quite deep, but it is not enough for my wife and I to wash and to water the garden.

If it doesn't rain soon we will be out completely.

A groundwater drill will cost 100,000 baht apparently, so when I suggested we do this my wife said what's the point we may not be here in 2 years.

I am thinking at this rate we may not see Christmas.

have a shower in the garden, kills two birds with one stone

[OneeyedJohn]

The garden is two acres, but thanks anyway.

Edited March 30, 2020 by OneeyedJohn

[DrJack54]

5 minutes ago, OneeyedJohn said:

The garden is two acres, but thanks anyway.

Good to see your priorities are in order. 

#1 water for my huge garden.

Get a grip.

[DrTuner]

I hope Thais are taking the names. Once it does hit, then they know who to move to permanent "inactive position".

[ben2talk]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

Assuming the current figures are correct.

 

Otherwise,who knows.

The figures ARE correct - except that in China they stated that these are ONLY the 'confirmed' cases, which means ones which have been tested. Keep testing down and you keep the figures down...

 

There are a few thousand WAITING to be tested, and we have no idea about other people as it spreads in the community. My guess is that if they don't get very sick, they'll keep it quiet.

[loong]

57 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

We can all help control it. NPI everyone. The govt didn't close the borders early enough (listened to CCP and WHO) and people didn't employ NPI soon enough BUT everyone has a role to play. Head in the sand may not be the best way to go. If everyone thought this way then we will be forced into it a 24hr ongoing curfew. Protecting others from yourself and yourself from others is a must.

What is NPI?

[sammieuk1]

Amazing Thailand where amulets are on the frontline and now the only hope????

[sameasb4]

hundreds of tests everyday will keep a lid on the stats and hospital admissions

do thousands and it will resemble euro zone and fill ICUs

Hospitals will have lots of spare capacity with less road fatalities due to less economic activity

no one is dodging this bullet

Govt have a tight reign on information so far

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by sameasb4

[dinsdale]

36 minutes ago, loong said:

What is NPI?

Non pharmaceutical interventions. masks, washing hands, self distancing that sort of thing.

 

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, Thailand said:

Assuming the current figures are correct.

 

Otherwise,who knows.

7 fatalities that they know of as cov-19, the rest were heatstroke.

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, OneeyedJohn said:

This is depressing me.

We have had no village water for 6 days now, our well is quite deep, but it is not enough for my wife and I to wash and to water the garden.

If it doesn't rain soon we will be out completely.

A groundwater drill will cost 100,000 baht apparently, so when I suggested we do this my wife said what's the point we may not be here in 2 years.

I am thinking at this rate we may not see Christmas.

100k sounds inflated, I had one drilled (28 meters) for around 20k. Why water the garden? it is normal here that everything drys up in the hot season and when it rains everything is green again.

[Dogmatix]

Hopefully he is right but, since no one has any idea how many infections there are now and we will still won't be close to knowing on 15th April, there is little point in making or refuting predictions. The only think we know for sure is that there are a lot more infections than the number of reported cases.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Dogmatix

[RickBradford]

Test everyone, isolate those with the virus (who may be asymptomatic) and tell the rest to keep dancing.

 

It worked in one Italian town in the middle of that country's danger zone.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

 

It also helps to keep the economy rolling along.

[Misterwhisper]

I fear the number of infections and deaths will rise proportional to the number of pathetic official denials and white-washing deflections.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Misterwhisper

[RichardColeman]

I wonder if Thailand would ever announce the figures as 55, 555, 5555, or 55,5555

[DrTuner]

47 minutes ago, RickBradford said:

Test everyone, isolate those with the virus (who may be asymptomatic) and tell the rest to keep dancing.

 

It worked in one Italian town in the middle of that country's danger zone.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/eradicated-coronavirus-mass-testing-covid-19-italy-vo

 

It also helps to keep the economy rolling along.

Yes, but with 600-700 tests done a day, Thailand is magnitudes off from the amount of testing that is needed.

[Katy Gorice]

now I look forward to april ...  test 100 people per day, lol ...  cannot have 101 sick people

[bluedoc]

3 hours ago, GordyS said:

have a shower in the garden, kills two birds with one stone

Give the wife a spade

[natway09]

I wonder how long before BBC taken off the air for "scaremongering