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What do you mean with'Phase 3"?

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1 minute ago, Puccini said:

What do you mean with'Phase 3"?

the next deeper draconian level...

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Posted (edited)

Picked up a new Lancet paper on my radar, it shows a lower CFR and IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) than previous estimates: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext#

 

It's a slow read and I'm digesting it, the data seems to be mostly from China which is natural as these studies take some time. There is one thing there that caught my eye:

Quote

It is clear from the data that have emerged from China that case fatality ratio increases substantially with age. Our results suggest a very low fatality ratio in those under the age of 20 years. As there are very few cases in this age group, it remains unclear whether this reflects a low risk of death or a difference in susceptibility, although early results indicate young people are not at lower risk of infection than adults.28 Serological testing in this age group will be crucial in the coming weeks to understand the significance of this age group in driving population transmission.

 

They are pointing out the asymptomatic cases might be mostly in the younger demographics group and they might have acted as the vector without knowing it and they then make the usual comment for more testing, in this case serological meaning testing for antibodies so they can figure out the true spread among the population.

 

It's an interesting thought, could there be an army of young, socially mobile people that have already gotten it but didn't notice? Only widespread testing will tell.

 

EDIT: Just rolling that idea in my head and thinking of all the Yais stored up in the sticks with the youngsters working in factories and the long delay in the onset of the epidemic in Thailand.. hmm.

Edited by DrTuner
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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Picked up a new Lancer paper on my radar, it shows a lower CFR and IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) that previous estimates: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext#

 

It's a slow read and I'm digesting it, the data seems to be mostly from China which is natural as these studies take some time. There is one thing there that caught my eye:

 

They are pointing out the asymptomatic cases might be mostly in the younger demographics group and they might have acted as the vector without knowing it and they then make the usual comment for more testing, in this case serological meaning testing for antibodies so they can figure out the true spread among the population.

 

It's an interesting thought, could there be an army of young, socially mobile people that have already gotten it but didn't notice? Only widespread testing will tell.

Sure , younger people have more social contact . Schools , everybody close together , work also many contacts . Elderly , normally spend more times in home or with relatives then spending close contact with others . Younger people generally have no problem surviving , but it does happen ( yesterday a 12y old healthy girl and last week there was a healthy 30y old nurse , both died in Belgium of corona ) , and many times they also suffer no symptoms . But having contact everywhere does spread it around , especially if they do not know they got it . This way they bring it to the more vulnerable people ...

 

As of phase 3 , means contacts are unknown and spreading in local community . ( thats what i heard ... can be corrected if i'm wrong ) .

phase 1 contracted elsewhere

phase 2 contracted from known source which came from elsewhere

Edited by sezze

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From tomorrow - I did see in 'China Daily News' - They will start publish daily numbers to show how many are reported Asymptomatic.

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3 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

I am no scientist, but i thought it was obvious since this virus saga started.

Asymptomatic transmission was debated in the early days. Maybe it's far more widespread than thought. Impossible to know without antibody testing. But it would sort of explain a few strange discrepancies in the timeline.

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Posted (edited)

Ok some more about it: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-experts-express-concerns-over-rise-in-asymptomatic-coronavirus-carriers

 

None of the asymptomatic carriers would have been tested in Thailand, unless they were connected to known cases: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

The plot thickens.

 

OP: Phase three would be exactly this, uncontrolled community transmission of unknown origin.

Edited by DrTuner

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Ok some more about it: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-experts-express-concerns-over-rise-in-asymptomatic-coronavirus-carriers

 

None of the asymptomatic carriers would have been tested in Thailand, unless they were connected to known cases: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

The plot thickens.

 

OP: Phase three would be exactly this, uncontrolled community transmission of unknown origin.

Ergo last weeks mass exodus from Bangkok into the provinces, and now the new cases popping up.  Could these asymptomatic folks going home have transferred the virus to others in the north, or South, or were some of those that are now positive from Bangkok, and are they now being reported as statistics on the 10th day of here being home....

Edited by ThailandRyan
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1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Ergo last weeks mass exodus from Bangkok into the provinces, and now the new cases popping up.  Could these asymptomatic folks transferred the virus to others in the north, or were some of those from Bangkok that have now become statistics on the 10th day of here being home....

The timeline would match. Asymptomatic younger BKK dwellers went back to Yai and she got sick. If only they had those fast test kits.

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1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

The timeline would match. Asymptomatic younger BKK dwellers went back to Yai and she got sick. If only they had those fast test kits.

Yes, I am still trying to source some that I can get here. However, until they start to test more folks, and randomly a few younger folks as a test group, who are asymptomatic, we can not see if they have the antibodies. In essence we are still in a no mans land.  Within the next 7 days I would hope we see the bigger picture as it plays out.  This can not stay hidden and covered over for much longer.

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2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Perhaps our dear leaders would have better to lift all restrictions, and let us go for "herd immunity" before it's too late.

That's still a bit too hard core, the Korean model of testing, testing and more testing and isolating the infected and using big data to predict next clusters would still be possible if they acted right now. Unfortunately it looks like the incompetence of the usurpers will drive it to herd immunity uncontrolled. Comes with a higher death toll that will likely linger until there is a vaccine.

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