Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference

[webfact]

Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference

 

Picture: Sanook

 

A deputy in charge of battling the Covid-19 crisis in Thailand has told the Thai people that their behavior can make a big difference to how many people get infected. 

 

He has also debunked claims online that Italians have suffered so badly because they wear shoes in the house. 

 

Dr Thanarak Phaliphat gave three scenarios for the spread of the virus in April:

 

Scenario 1: If Thais didn't follow rules and practice social distancing there would be 24-25,000 cases. 

 

Scenario 2: Social distancing practised and 50% of the rules would mean 17,000 cases. 

 

Scenario 3: Social distancing and 80% compliance would lead to 7,000 cases. 

 

Dr Thanarak said that these figures were not meant to worry Thais, but show by acting responsibly they could make a difference. 

 

He also dismissed ideas circulating in Thailand that Italians were suffering badly because the infection was spread on shoes they wore in their houses.

 

He said this was nonsense. He stressed that the disease is spread through droplets that come into contact and enter the body through the eyes, nose and mouth.

 

Source: Sanook

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-04-01

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[smedly]

how will they detect the infections if they are not testing in any significant numbers  

 

WHO and experts around the world are very clear about this - MASSIVE TESTING IS PARAMOUNT to controlling this virus 

 

Shouldn't be a problem for Thailand as they appointed themselves the "Medical HUB" of South East Asia - maybe the world

[SkyFax]

[Canuck1966]

When virus testing gets stepped up: The Philippines has a sudden surge of cases - 538 today alone. More than 15,000 tests now from 3,000 last week. At least it is getting a clearer picture of the reality.

[scubascuba3]

How many ventilators have they ordered? I'm guessing zero

[cornishcarlos]

40 minutes ago, smedly said:

 

WHO and experts around the world are very clear about this - MASSIVE TESTING IS PARAMOUNT to controlling this virus 

 

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case I'm in complete agreement with you though.. 

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!! 

 

[pegman]

How many tests have been done?  The answer to that would show whether enough was being done.

[dinsdale]

21 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case I'm in complete agreement with you though.. 

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!! 

 

Germany 500,000/day.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

how will they detect the infections if they are not testing in any significant numbers  

To be fair he didn't mention that they would be "detected" but rather that there would "be" that many infections,sounds like he is treading carefully.

[FarFlungFalang]

54 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

How many ventilators have they ordered? I'm guessing zero

Enough to treat the infected elite I would guess.

[stouricks]

2 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

If you only test 500/day then worse case scenario at 100% infection would only be 6000 cases !!!

No comprendez. Sorry, don't understand this statement.

[cornishcarlos]

3 minutes ago, stouricks said:

No comprendez. Sorry, don't understand this statement.

 

Why not ??

 

If you only test 500 people a day, then by the end of April worse case scenario can only be 6000 cases.. If they all test positive !!

 

Comprendez ??

 

[stouricks]

1 minute ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Why not ??

 

If you only test 500 people a day, then by the end of April worse case scenario can only be 6000 cases.. If they all test positive !!

 

Comprendez ??

 

Sorry, did not realise you mean testing 500 every day until end of April. What a Fool I am.   

[Susco]

Last week the prediction was 3000 cases by the end of April

[Enoon]

 

25,000, in a "best case" scenario, is more likely the number of deaths that will result.

 

Approximately 1 in every 2700 people.

 

I give that guestimated figure because UK is "hoping" for best case 20,000 or less deaths.

 

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Enoon

[WineOh]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

He has also debunked claims online that Italians have suffered so badly because they wear shoes in the house. 

Evidence of the collective Thai neural network going into overdrive right here..

Edited April 1, 2020 by Liverpoolfan

[CLW]

3 hours ago, SkyFax said:

So those laboratories could do testing in theory. 

Would be interesting how much of them are conducting lab tests right now and where's the bottleneck?

 

Equipment, reagents, staff???

 

Approximately 500 tests per day are hilarious (green column, orange is backlog / pending).

[Lemonltr]

3 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Germany 500,000/day.

I read that figure might be weekly at the very highest. 

[leggo]

in one month the UK went to 25000 and they behaved pretty stupidly but nothing like as this band !

[Raymonddiaz]

4 hours ago, SkyFax said:

How much does it cost ?

[30la]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid-19: Worst case scenario for April is 25,000 cases but Thais told: YOU can make a difference

The hypothetical numbers are decreasing, a few days ago there was talk of over 30,000, it would be better to wait and see where this "epidemic" takes us ...

[TheFishman1]

Where is this guy getting his numbers from I don’t believe it T IT

[marko kok prong]

Songkran will be the real test if Thai people are sensible and stay put it will definately help,if it is buisness as usual,expect a large spike in the weeks after. I know it is officially banned but most people travel back to their home town's village to drink,eat,and party,for the 4 days,sure they may attend the parade but that is 1 day out of four.

[brain150]

Hollywood did a good job with movies like "Outbreak" and "Contagion" because

everybody obviously believes that these movies have anything to do with reality !

 

A 5 minute research would tell everybody that a VIRUS just does not behave like this !!!

 

This whole thing is based on the idea of UNLIMITED exponential growth which NATURE never does !

Every tree grows exponential ... until it stops growing !

 

20,000 people die in Germany EVERY YEAR from infections caused in hospitals !

2,500 people in Germany die every day on average !

Nobody thinks about these numbers because they are never in the media !

 

Now people are scared of 25,000 CASES at a mortality rate of 0.1% = 25 people !!!

 

There are more people dying from falling out of bed than from this Scandemic !!!

[Dogmatix]

Must be 50,000-100,000 cases already.  Predictions are meaningless without widespread testing and no plans to implement it.

[elliss]

10 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

WHO also said travel restrictions weren't necessary back in February, so I wouldn't believe all the "experts"... In this case,

 

 

 Links ...

[CGW]

1 hour ago, elliss said:

 Links ...

WHO were weak! they never really said much at all! Preferring to go with the Politically correct agenda! https://www.who.int/news-room/releases/2

[mok199]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand has told the Thai people that their behavior can make a big difference to how many people

While foriengers will be blamed (again) if the numbers rise.

[Bert got kinky]

1 minute ago, mok199 said:

While foriengers will be blamed (again) if the numbers rise.

 

While foreigners are still refusing to mask up. 

[Yadon Toploy]

The thermometer being used in the picture in the OP is a cheap Chinese made POS, not meant for testing body temperature and will be wildly inaccurate, and will even not be able to accurately tell whether people have a fever.