Contagion must be curbed before rainy season, Chula expert warns

[snoop1130]

Contagion must be curbed before rainy season, Chula expert warns

By THE NATION

 

 

A clinical virologist at Chulalongkorn University says Thailand’s measures against Covid-19 have been “moderately effective”, but more must be done to get the deadly disease under control.

 

“Currently the reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19 in Thailand has come down from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5,” Dr Yong Poovorawan, of Chula’s Faculty of Medicine, said in a Facebook post on Wednesday (March 1).

 

“This means that an infected person in Thailand will spread the virus to an average 1.5 people, instead of 2.5 people which was the Covid-19 infection rate before we employed social distancing measures.

 

“However, this rate remains unsatisfactory until we bring it down to 1 or below.”

 

To achieve this, he said, we must strictly observe the following measures:

 

1) Maximise the speed of diagnosis as well as the number of people getting tested. We must test wider groups of suspected cases and get results back as soon as possible. The sooner we can identify and isolate those who test positive the better we can control the spread of the virus. Early diagnosis also helps promote effective treatment and survivability.

 

2) Reduce the risk of contracting the virus in daily life. This includes measures that the government has been promoting such as regular hand washing, eating properly cooked foods with separate utensils, keeping a distance of at least 2 metres between persons and wearing face masks in public.

 

3) Reduce movement of the population. Measures that limit transport between provinces must be strictly followed to prevent the virus from spreading from one area to another. Measures such as postponing Songkran, locking down provinces and working from home must be maintained until the situation improves.

 

4) Be disciplined. As we can see, people in countries like China and some in the West have more discipline and respect for the law than many people in Thailand. They have managed to contain the virus until they have no new local infections, only imported cases of those returning from overseas.

 

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385195

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-01

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[jmccarty]

R0=2.5 to R0=1.5 is encouraging.  I have no problem following the rules if it starves the virus out.  Keep up the effort all and thanks for the info to Dr. Yong.

[Topdoc]

We cannot wait for the rainy season to arrive in the North of Thailand...... to give our respiratory organs a bit of fresh air for a change.

[marko kok prong]

What?

[dinsdale]

And these numbers are based on a complete lack of testing hence are meaningless.

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

1) Maximise the speed of diagnosis as well as the number of people getting tested. We must test wider groups of suspected cases and get results back as soon as possible. The sooner we can identify and isolate those who test positive the better we can control the spread of the virus. Early diagnosis also helps promote effective treatment and survivability.

Yes. But not just suspected cases. Go into clusters and test widely. Outside of clusters test randomly or set up testing centres. Test, test and test. Problem with this is the true situation which the 'junta' is may be covering up will come to the surface.

 

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

Interesting. "more difficult" infers it's already difficult. I'm not sure how this can be unless the tests they are using are giving false negatives and false positives or they simply don't have enough tests.. Whatever it is this comment leaves the way open to say that incorrect diagnoses may be happening.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by dinsdale

[rabas]

The rainy season, or Thai flu season, when people get respiratory illnesses because they spend much more time indoors together.

 

Good thing we are in lock down, at home, together. 

 

(?)

[holy cow cm]

Rain will typically start on and off in about 2 weeks. Good luck to that one. 

[tomazbodner]

Can't see 3) and especially 4) happening unless there's army on the streets in total lockdown. Maybe 50% of people at its best, probably far less than that. Most people still don't care.

[DrTuner]

How would they be able to make any accurate estimates of R0 if they don't test the asymptomatics general population. It's just a guess.

[DrTuner]

43 minutes ago, rabas said:

The rainy season, or Thai flu season, when people get respiratory illnesses because they spend much more time indoors together.

 

Good thing we are in lock down, at home, together. 

 

(?)

Indeed self isolation only works if you don't let half the village in for a communal meal and shared spoons every 15mins. I don't think Thais understand this.

[DrTuner]

27 minutes ago, holy cow cm said:

Rain will typically start on and off in about 2 weeks. Good luck to that one. 

One can hope, or people will start kicking the bucket because of dehydration. Water from the city pipes is now a distant dream in many places.

Edited April 1, 2020 by DrTuner

[FarFlungFalang]

22 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Indeed self isolation only works if you don't let half the village in for a communal meal and shared spoons every 15mins. I don't think Thais understand this.

Sounds like you've been watch our place as the custom is after a day on the farm they (the workers) all come around for a free feed and a few drinks.

[humbug]

same hospital that ten years ago, refused to treat anyone who didn’t wear a light color, something creepy is going on,  no way can you say it’s down to 1.5 infection rate, when they will never care about large testing like Germany, they know they are fooling the population, in parroting the instructed information to keep the lockdown going, they must be believing their research, lockdowns keep millions begging for handouts, saviors score well in popularity marks 

[Borzandy]

12 hours ago, marko kok prong said:

What?

What ? would he like to say raining season or rain fall?

[HOAX]

12 hours ago, dinsdale said:

And these numbers are based on a complete lack of testing hence are meaningless.

Yes. But not just suspected cases. Go into clusters and test widely. Outside of clusters test randomly or set up testing centres. Test, test and test. Problem with this is the true situation which the 'junta' is may be covering up will come to the surface.

 

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

Interesting. "more difficult" infers it's already difficult. I'm not sure how this can be unless the tests they are using are giving false negatives and false positives or they simply don't have enough tests.. Whatever it is this comment leaves the way open to say that incorrect diagnoses may be happening.

 

There's a reason for the systematic testing. You can't just place motorbike-sized lab machines around every corner. There are very few of them available, they need to be in a sterilized and controlled environment, not enough swab kits available, one test takes around 45 minutes and it's a limit to how many test can be done per machine, and most importantly there are not enough qualified personell to handle swab tests and run the tests at the labs.

 

Another reason for not cluster testing is pretty obvious, hence why governments are trying to prevent people from cluster.

[Assurancetourix]

11 hours ago, DrTuner said:

How would they be able to make any accurate estimates of R0 if they don't test the asymptomatics general population. It's just a guess.

Which two countries have had very few hospital patients?

South Korea and Germany.
Why ?

Simply because they did a massive free screening and only isolate people who are Covid-19 positive

The day when the Thai generals understand that doing certain things for free will save them billions of US dollars has not yet come ...

[Farmerkev]

Awesome news, infection rate dropped to 1.5. That means today we should only see 27 new cases based on yesterdays 1771 confirmed cases

[HOAX]

10 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

Which two countries have had very few hospital patients?

South Korea and Germany.
Why ?

Simply because they did a massive free screening and only isolate people who are Covid-19 positive

The day when the Thai generals understand that doing certain things for free will save them billions of US dollars has not yet come ...

Screening is just a fancier word for temperature testing, which Thailand literally does everywhere you go. Swab testing is something else. Very few countries, if any, does mass-testing as its physically impossible due to the lack of test machines, swab kits and qualified personell.

[Assurancetourix]

6 minutes ago, HOAX said:

Screening is

It is true that when we look for the little beast .... we find it ..
If you find out a little more, you will notice that I had the wrong word;
South Korea and Germany have done (for Korea) and are currently doing (for Germany) a massive test of their population which obviously has nothing to do with taking a temperature.
Does that suit you as an explanation?

[alant]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

That may be the case in areas not effected by the huge pollution effecting all in the areas where the burning season is currently.

For us in these areas, the rain may bring some respite to both the smog and Covid19 I feel. 

[BigFun]

4) Be disciplined. As we can see, people in countries like China and some in the West have more discipline and respect for the law than many people in Thailand.

 

Just about anywhere else... ????

[generealty]

Difficult to keep washing hands etc when we keep having our water turned off as shortage here. We do have hand sanitizer but what about toilet facilities and dish washing ? Our house hope the rains come for general cleanliness

[Assurancetourix]

10 minutes ago, generealty said:

Difficult to keep washing hands etc when we keep having our water turned off as shortage here. We do have hand sanitizer but what about toilet facilities and dish washing ? Our house hope the rains come for general cleanliness

You don't have a well ?

[Chassa]

20 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

You don't have a well ?

Drilled but water saline!

[Assurancetourix]

2 minutes ago, Chassa said:

Drilled but water saline!

No luck;

but to wash your hands and wash the dishes it should be enough

[Nyezhov]

35 minutes ago, generealty said:

Difficult to keep washing hands etc when we keep having our water turned off as shortage here. We do have hand sanitizer but what about toilet facilities and dish washing ? Our house hope the rains come for general cleanliness

why arent you filling a cistern when the water runs.

 

Siem Reap is having spradic water pressure problems. I have a drinking jug and a washing jug (just in case). Just like I have candles, a flashlight and canned food.

 

And Bingo Tickets!

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“However, this rate remains unsatisfactory until we bring it down to 1 or below.”

Zero is the truth... one person can kick it all off again, just like it began in the first place.

[rabas]

1 hour ago, BigFun said:

4) Be disciplined. As we can see, people in countries like China and some in the West have more discipline and respect for the law than many people in Thailand.

Yes, be disciplined, like in China where people were disciplined, dragged out of cars, locked up, some whose homes were welded shut. 

 

[generealty]

Assurancetourix & Neyezhov - No we do not have a well but have a tank but with 9 people in our house when the water stops (often without notice) it drains quickly. No we do not fill the cistern as we have a tank as that automatically fills but when they close the water down for whatever reason the tank drains. I cannot have a well installed as we live inside a MooBaan. Anyway what has that got to do with the fact that they keep turning the water off - we still hope for rains very soon

[Cake Monster]

Item4 highlights the most pressing issue that the Authorities have in Thailand, and it urgently needs to be addressed in order to curb the Virus

A complete lack of respect for the law here, by many Citizens who are putting innocent people at risk through their own selfish and ignorant actions.