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Contagion must be curbed before rainy season, Chula expert warns

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Contagion must be curbed before rainy season, Chula expert warns

By THE NATION

 

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A clinical virologist at Chulalongkorn University says Thailand’s measures against Covid-19 have been “moderately effective”, but more must be done to get the deadly disease under control.

 

“Currently the reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19 in Thailand has come down from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5,” Dr Yong Poovorawan, of Chula’s Faculty of Medicine, said in a Facebook post on Wednesday (March 1).

 

“This means that an infected person in Thailand will spread the virus to an average 1.5 people, instead of 2.5 people which was the Covid-19 infection rate before we employed social distancing measures.

 

“However, this rate remains unsatisfactory until we bring it down to 1 or below.”

 

To achieve this, he said, we must strictly observe the following measures:

 

1) Maximise the speed of diagnosis as well as the number of people getting tested. We must test wider groups of suspected cases and get results back as soon as possible. The sooner we can identify and isolate those who test positive the better we can control the spread of the virus. Early diagnosis also helps promote effective treatment and survivability.

 

2) Reduce the risk of contracting the virus in daily life. This includes measures that the government has been promoting such as regular hand washing, eating properly cooked foods with separate utensils, keeping a distance of at least 2 metres between persons and wearing face masks in public.

 

3) Reduce movement of the population. Measures that limit transport between provinces must be strictly followed to prevent the virus from spreading from one area to another. Measures such as postponing Songkran, locking down provinces and working from home must be maintained until the situation improves.

 

4) Be disciplined. As we can see, people in countries like China and some in the West have more discipline and respect for the law than many people in Thailand. They have managed to contain the virus until they have no new local infections, only imported cases of those returning from overseas.

 

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30385195

 

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-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-04-01
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Rain will typically start on and off in about 2 weeks. Good luck to that one. 

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Can't see 3) and especially 4) happening unless there's army on the streets in total lockdown. Maybe 50% of people at its best, probably far less than that. Most people still don't care.

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22 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Indeed self isolation only works if you don't let half the village in for a communal meal and shared spoons every 15mins. I don't think Thais understand this.

Sounds like you've been watch our place as the custom is after a day on the farm they (the workers) all come around for a free feed and a few drinks.

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same hospital that ten years ago, refused to treat anyone who didn’t wear a light color, something creepy is going on,  no way can you say it’s down to 1.5 infection rate, when they will never care about large testing like Germany, they know they are fooling the population, in parroting the instructed information to keep the lockdown going, they must be believing their research, lockdowns keep millions begging for handouts, saviors score well in popularity marks 

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12 hours ago, marko kok prong said:

What?

What ? would he like to say raining season or rain fall?

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12 hours ago, dinsdale said:

And these numbers are based on a complete lack of testing hence are meaningless.

Yes. But not just suspected cases. Go into clusters and test widely. Outside of clusters test randomly or set up testing centres. Test, test and test. Problem with this is the true situation which the 'junta' is may be covering up will come to the surface.

 

Yong said all four measures must be observed strictly before the rainy season, when cases of respiratory disease would rise. “[Then] it will be more difficult to differentiate whether the symptoms of a patient are caused by Covid-19 or other respiratory diseases,” he said.

Interesting. "more difficult" infers it's already difficult. I'm not sure how this can be unless the tests they are using are giving false negatives and false positives or they simply don't have enough tests.. Whatever it is this comment leaves the way open to say that incorrect diagnoses may be happening.

 

There's a reason for the systematic testing. You can't just place motorbike-sized lab machines around every corner. There are very few of them available, they need to be in a sterilized and controlled environment, not enough swab kits available, one test takes around 45 minutes and it's a limit to how many test can be done per machine, and most importantly there are not enough qualified personell to handle swab tests and run the tests at the labs.

 

Another reason for not cluster testing is pretty obvious, hence why governments are trying to prevent people from cluster.

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