Contagion must be curbed before rainy season, Chula expert warns

[carlyai]

14 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Rain will typically start on and off in about 2 weeks. Good luck to that one. 

Maybe pre-rainy season starts up here today, with thunder around.

[ParkerN]

Even allowing for the delay in onset of the rainy season (due to the current drought conditions), the only conclusion an intelligent man can come to is that this government has not coped well and is not coping well and surely can't be expected to cope well at any point in the future.

 

Given that. I strongly believe that 'Thailand is already seriously ge <deleted> d'.

 

The only course of action for me, I have concluded, is to play tortoises and withdraw into one's shell and wait for the chariot of fire transporting the presiding genius of Thailand to come and rescue us.

 

Or get down the wat and have a nice pray to whoever you believe is watching over us.

 

Because this government just doesn't have a clue what's going on let alone what to do about it. It's an 'amateurocracy', full to the brim with people who just don't know when to shut up and listen, with even more huffersandpuffers waiting in the wings for their chance to balls it up.

 

Tell me I'm wrong.

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by metisdead
8.) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.

[Guderian]

Latest indications are that the UK's voluntary isolation and social distancing measures have cut R₀ from 2.6 to 0.62. I guess that's probably because many people there (though certainly not all) take the measures seriously and act accordingly. Here in Thailand, far too many people see it all as a bit of a joke, or mai pen rai, or surely this doesn't apply to me, I'm young and healthy.

 

"Research by Imperial College London has suggested that as many as one in 37 Brits - around 1.8million people - may already have caught the coronavirus and be unrecorded. And separate statistics published yesterday suggested the true death toll is 24 per cent higher than believed when deaths outside of hospitals are included.

But there are reasons to be hopeful - early research suggests the UK's lockdown is starting to work and may have cut the number of people each patient infects from 2.6 to 0.62, a number too low for the outbreak to sustain itself."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8176097/Scotland-records-16-coronavirus-victims-UKs-death-toll-increases-1-805.html

[holy cow cm]

30 minutes ago, carlyai said:

Maybe pre-rainy season starts up here today, with thunder around.

I can only hope so for CM

[Dogmatix]

He is right. The rainy season is Thailand flu season.

[SantiSuk]

19 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

He is right. The rainy season is Thailand flu season.

Not what a local doctor told me when I enquired about a flu jab last August. He said that November in advance of cool season was the best time to immunise.

 

Of course TIT and maybe he had ulterior motives. Then of course the Chula expert seems to think rainy season is dodgy so maybe I got wrong advice. I would be interested in the source of your statement Dogmatrix

Edited April 2, 2020 by SantiSuk

[HOAX]

1 hour ago, Assurancetourix said:

It is true that when we look for the little beast .... we find it ..
If you find out a little more, you will notice that I had the wrong word;
South Korea and Germany have done (for Korea) and are currently doing (for Germany) a massive test of their population which obviously has nothing to do with taking a temperature.
Does that suit you as an explanation?

Little evidence that mass testing has any impact, nor does Germany have few corona patients hospitalized. It's around average compared to the rest of the world. The only countries sticking out here are Spain (50%+), Belgium (40%+) and France (40%+). The rest are between 3% (Austria) and 20%. Many countries have less corona patients than Germany.

 

Germany

- Tested: 1 million+ (currently 50.000 per day)

- Total cases: 77.981

- Hospitalized: 12%

- Fatality rate: 1.19%

 

South Korea

- Tested: 410.564 (as of 31. March)

- Total cases: 9.976

- Hospitalized: Unknown

- Fatality rate: 1.69%

 

Norway

- Tested: 95.000 (currently around 3.000 per day)

- Total cases 4.877

- Hospitalized 6.6%

- Fatality rate: 0.90%

 

Norway has a focus on self-quarantine, closing down unnecessities, social distancing and hygiene, rather than on testing. Testing is very useful for statistics and data, but otherwise it's irrelevant for the spread of the virus. The infection rate has been stable for the last two weeks, which was the goal for Norway, to spread the infected over a longer period of time so the medical services doesn't become overloaded, or run out of medicine and medical supplies.

 

I can't see there being much evidence that less testing has much effect on the spread of the virus either. Most likely there's no significant  difference whether countries mass test or not. On the other hand, as I said, mass testing is very beneficial to gather useful scientific data. So on that basis I'd like more testing, but not on any other grounds.

[stouricks]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

and wearing face masks in public

Another post says that it is LAW to wear a mask when driving your car ALONE.

[sawadee1947]

Good man. 

However He's talking and dealing with stupid soldiers only. 

Or with "I know all better"

So mission impossible because of greediness when imagining Chinese to come back next. 

[Aspaltso]

16 hours ago, rabas said:

The rainy season, or Thai flu season, when people get respiratory illnesses because they spend much more time indoors together.

 

Good thing we are in lock down, at home, together. 

 

(?)

That's exactly right. If you don't use aircon, and are able to keep your distance from folks you ought to be able to avoid respiratory illnesses in the rainy season. I got a flu back in June 2017, and it was due to the fact I was teaching in a classroom where the A/C was constantly blasting at me the entire period.

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, sawadee1947 said:

Good man. 

However He's talking and dealing with stupid soldiers only. 

Or with "I know all better"

So mission impossible because of greediness when imagining Chinese to come back next. 

 

Yes. Maybe. I don't think the Chinese are coming back. Nor the Europeans (including the Russkys). Nor the Americans.

 

The goose that laid the golden eggs is reclining in the basting dish, it's now dead.

 

Perhaps Buddha will help...

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by ParkerN

[Isaanbiker]

Thailand doesn't do much testing, so I truly believe these numbers are wrong. It sounds better to have an RO of 1.5 than 2.5. 

Here's some info on "RO"

 

 

If you saw the 2011 movie “Contagion,” about a worldwide pandemic of a new virus, then you’ve heard the term “R0.”

 

Pronounced “R naught,” this isn’t just jargon made up in Hollywood.

 

It represents an important concept in epidemiology and is a crucial part of public health planning during an outbreak, like the current coronavirus pandemic that’s spread globally since it was first identified in China.

 

 

 

More here: https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/how-scientists-quantify-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-covid-19

Edited April 2, 2020 by metisdead
Edited as per fair use policy.

[Mavideol]

most interesting is point #4

[hotelbri]

Watch results from Sweden & Brazil, neither are on lockdown..one cold and the other tropical. might be interesting.????????

[overherebc]

15 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Indeed self isolation only works if you don't let half the village in for a communal meal and shared spoons every 15mins. I don't think Thais understand this.

Some of my neighbours for sure haven't got the idea yet.

[Guderian]

44 minutes ago, SantiSuk said:

Not what a local doctor told me when I enquired about a flu jab last August. He said that November in advance of cool season was the best time to immunise.

 

Of course TIT and maybe he had ulterior motives. Then of course the Chula expert seems to think rainy season is dodgy so maybe I got wrong advice. I would be interested in the source of your statement Dogmatrix

 

Correct, the rainy season is wet but it's still warm, and hot when it's not cloudy and raining (which is most of the time here in Pattaya, to be honest we never seem to get much of a rainy season). In my experience after 16 years of living here, most of the colds in this part of Thailand (I've never seen anybody get flu, which is a much worse animal than the common cold) start in November or December when the cool, dry weather returns. Nothing at all to do with the rainy season.

[RichardColeman]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

“Currently the reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19 in Thailand has come down from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5,” Dr Yong Poovorawan, of Chula’s Faculty of Medicine, said in a Facebook post on Wednesday (March 1).

I'm confused as to how he can make that comment without actually any mass testing - seems pulling numbers from thin air again

[whiteman]

We have been in lock down for 3 week and loving it. We live on one rai plenty of food and drink.

 

But our neighbor both DRS.

 

We only have one  neighbor are still going out and socializing, and even there 76 year father goes out drinking, and they have 2 workers that go out in the morning on the motor bike to get food to cook for the old man plenty of ways to catch the infection but they do not seem to care. Amazing Thailand.

[DrTuner]

18 minutes ago, whiteman said:

We only have one  neighbor are still going out and socializing, and even there 76 year father goes out drinking, and they have 2 workers that go out in the morning on the motor bike to get food to cook for the old man plenty of ways to catch the infection but they do not seem to care. 

Well, the old timer is already on the winning side:

[Bell1234]

April 1st not march 1st

[Redline]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/01/i-returned-thailand-january-with-fever-103-i-wasnt-tested-coronavirus/
 

well, this was January 

[Acharn]

21 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Rain will typically start on and off in about 2 weeks. Good luck to that one. 

Where do you live? I live in Nakhon Sawan, have lived in Nakhon Ratchasima, Chon Buri, and Bangkok, and have never seen the rains start earlier than the end of May, most usually early in June. I know many Thais say the Rainy Season is supposed to start with Songkhran, and I recall there was one year when it did rain several times between the middle of April and the end of May, but I don't remember wnat year that was. It was unusual.

[Monomial]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I'm confused as to how he can make that comment without actually any mass testing - seems pulling numbers from thin air again

 

He's likely just citing the output of one of the many SIR models floating around that says this is what you can expect if you implement the following measures.  It is very unlikely he has any empirical data to back up this statement. Given that R0 hasn't even been completely settled yet, just his statement that the previous R value was 2.5 seems "unreliable" to put it nicely.  And we have even less data now that the restrictions are in effect, so he is obviously just quoting a model. Hopefully a model he was personally involved in creating, but more likely someone else's model he just heard about.

[holy cow cm]

7 minutes ago, Acharn said:

Where do you live? I live in Nakhon Sawan, have lived in Nakhon Ratchasima, Chon Buri, and Bangkok, and have never seen the rains start earlier than the end of May, most usually early in June. I know many Thais say the Rainy Season is supposed to start with Songkhran, and I recall there was one year when it did rain several times between the middle of April and the end of May, but I don't remember wnat year that was. It was unusual.

CM for over 20++ years. Every year around the water festival it start raining here.

[billd766]

9 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

You don't have a well ?

We don't have a well either. We are on a downhill slope with granite about 2 metres down. We rely on the tessaban and the firetrucks for water delivery.

[billd766]

We have just had the rainy season for April in rural Khampaeng Phet.

 

A 5 minute shower. enough toe wet the concrete but leave no puddles and the smell of parched earth were the surface got damp.

 

[Ketyo]

This dude is on the money. Are any of the government people employing him? Or are they letting those imbeciles like Anutin and Prayut speak?

[unblocktheplanet]

We really, really hope the good doc was not quoted from MARCH 1. They do mean April 1, right???

[Mulambana]

On 4/1/2020 at 5:51 AM, snoop1130 said:

Be disciplined. As we can see, people in countries like China and some in the West have more discipline and respect for the law than many people in Thailand.

THis guy is completely blind or what? Which Westrn country is able to contain it effectively? Only poor countries are able to contain it. Even Bangladesh is doing better than any western countries. THe reason Westrn countries are not able to contain it becuase of Tom (truck drive), Dick (Plumber), Harry's(brick layer) arrogancies and their Dunning Kruger syndrome.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Mulambana

[rickudon]

On 4/5/2020 at 5:30 PM, Mulambana said:

Only poor countries are able to contain it.

Rubbish. Poor countries had the advantage of little chinese tourism, so only got cases much later, when travelers from USA and Europe brought it back. And, of course, there is little testing and most cases go unreported. Those poorer countries will hit the headlines in May.