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Contagion raging because employees not sent home: health chief

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I think it is important to keep in mind that epidemiologists have run SIR models on this with very good data now for several weeks.  What is relatively obvious at this point is there is essentially no amount of social distancing or lock down that will stop 90+% of the population contracting this virus given any reasonable movement to buy food and essentials. The only ways this virus comes to an end are 1) everybody develops immunity, 2) a vaccine is developed and administered to everyone, or 3) the technology is invented to detect and isolate infected individuals within 24 hours of contracting the disease.

 

Under any other assumptions, you flatten the curve, but eventually everyone catches it. The virus doesn't die on its own after a few weeks of isolation. This is a fantasy that nobody is acknowledging.  Either everyone gets it, everyone is vaccinated, or they learn how to detect it and quarantine very early while you are still asymptomatic.

 

So whatever restrictions the government is putting in place, you need to expect are going to be around for months. And the more restrictive you are, the more you flatten the curve, the longer the lockdown is going to be needed.  The stress you inflict on a population during this time has a real effect on people and weakens their immune system, making them more vulnerable. There is a genuine question of which is worse, the virus or the "cure".

 

Before you jump on the bandwagon of "more restriction", consider carefully the costs. I personally am not sure they are worth it. Every attempt to flatten the curve further gives you less marginal utility than the last restriction, and stresses your population further. Remember: everyone is going to get the disease unless one of the 3 cases above happens. A stressed population with weakened immunity is a bad, bad thing in this situation.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Monomial said:

I think it is important to keep in mind that epidemiologists have run SIR models on this with very good data now for several weeks. 

The data is nearly useless thanks to highly selective admission criteria and throttling of the diagnostics pipeline.

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

The usurpers have introduced an unknown systematic error into the data set with their antics.

 

And now it seems they've further tightened the criteria to get tested, as the pending results number suddenly plummeted by thousands, but the confirmed count remained basically the same per day. A new bag of tricks. They think people are stupid.

Edited by DrTuner

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Official data from the MoPH is provided here. 

 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php?fbclid=IwAR0ixW-BFIkXyKaF6vln4wQnGVAD7kd8opjEgm9vEY8oM_KS8tyIhFM7LLk

 

Note:

In Thailand, there have been 1,651 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Among the confirmed
cases, 416 patients have recovered and returned home, nine patients have died, and four are in
critical condition. Of the remaining 18,446 PUI, 10,853 cases returned negative laboratory results,
and results are pending for 7,593 PUI.
The median age of the confirmed cases is 34 years old (ranging from 5 months to 84 years
old). 915 cases are male, and 650 cases are female (ratio of male to female: 1.41:1) and gender
data is not available for 86 cases.

 

Who thinks these numbers are "just made up" ? Like many countries, they are testing those who present with symptoms and in the 'at risk' category. As up to 20-25% of cases are asymptomatic (estimate from South Korea), then yes there could be those spreading the virus unknowingly, but the testing kits must be saved for those presenting symptoms. It seems to me a large percentage of the results are coming back as negative.

 

Note also the young median age of the infected. This may account for the current low death / serious case rate. 

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Germany now has 900 people who died of covid (or at least "with" covid). Now each year Germany records around 900 000 deaths.

 

At the end of the year the all-year death statistics may not even show any covid effect. In other word no more people will have died in 2020 than died in previous years.

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22 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well it looks like all those people who wanted the 70 and above crowd and the under 5 crowd to stay at home just ensured the whole rest of us no longer can socially distance an exercise in the fresh air.  At this rate I see June when we may see daylight again.  So much for mental health, better prepare for more than just Covid-19 bodies piling up. 

Do you actually exercise after 10PM or before 5AM?  The rant seems unfounded. 

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Posted (edited)

A Panda delivery guy today was coughing hard outside my condo and nearly keeled over!  The pointed sombrero hasn't reached the tip yet. With virtually no testing its an explosion on the way 

Edited by pixelaoffy

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22 hours ago, Moonlover said:

This 'work from home' directive appears to have become an international mantra. Yet I do wonder whether it is really a practical option.

 

Ok, there are the minority of people who do work remotely via their phones and computers. But for the great majority, they need to be at their workplace, be it desk, workshop, kitchen or whatever.

 

Life must go on. And for the most part that means, for the great majority, getting on with their job and accepting the risk that they may become a Covid casualty. And let's face it, for the great majority that simply means going through a few days of minor illness and a short period of isolation.

 

Yes correct, my friend runs a workshop with many CNC machines, surely he can't

take home all the machines and work from home.

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19 minutes ago, asiaexpat said:

Do you actually exercise after 10PM or before 5AM?  The rant seems unfounded. 

People don't actually read, they just assume the worst!

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, pixelaoffy said:

A Panda delivery guy today was coughing hard outside my condo and nearly keeled over!  The pointed sombrero hasn't reached the tip yet. With virtually no testing its an explosion on the way 

Home deliveries are only as safe as the people cooking and delivering them. Want to be sure, cook your own meals and cook them well. Not sure if nuking in a microwave would kill the virus, but since it's coated in fat and heat sensitive, I would assume so.

 

EDIT: Seems I assumed right: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-014-0171-3

Quote

MS2 coliphage used as a human model virus was aerosolized and exposed to the direct microwave irradiation for ~2 min at three different power levels (700, 385, and 119 W). In addition to the survival rate, the viral genes before and after the microwave treatments were also examined using PCR and gel electrophoresis. Direct exposure of airborne MS2 viruses to the microwave irradiation at 700 W for less than 2 min was shown to result in more than 90 % inactivation efficiency, about 65 % at medium power level (385 W), and 50 % at the lowest level (119 W). 

That's as aerosol, droplets will probably take more nuking.

 

Also, there might be a significant amount of asymptomatic carriers that are infectious: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext#

 

Even if they don't cough, they might be carriers for things other than your food.

Edited by DrTuner

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On 4/1/2020 at 7:08 PM, Wiggy said:

I completely agree. When I see figures of around 100 new cases/day, out of 60 million people, I’ll be honest and say I don’t take it too seriously. If the figures were 1,000s with 100s dying each day I’d think differently. If that sounds irresponsible so be it. But I don’t think of it in that way. 

It will be 1000s if we did nothing. Look at America. 1000+ deaths daily already

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On 4/1/2020 at 7:08 PM, Wiggy said:

I completely agree. When I see figures of around 100 new cases/day, out of 60 million people, I’ll be honest and say I don’t take it too seriously. If the figures were 1,000s with 100s dying each day I’d think differently. If that sounds irresponsible so be it. But I don’t think of it in that way. 

It will be 1000s if we did nothing. Look at America. 1000+ deaths daily already

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What the real number of infections in Thailand is nobody knows. OK, it is not at European levels. But the situation can change rapidly. UK had its first death on the 5th March, now over 5,000 dead (and this doesn't include deaths outside hospitals). Lockdowns and the other measures take about 3-4 weeks to show up in improved death rates, you have to act quickly to control it. 

 

The practicality of a lockdown in a country like Thailand is problematic - about  50% of people are self employed or work in family business and often live hand to mouth. They cannot stop working or they have no money to pay bills and buy food. 

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He should provide an example to others and go home.

 

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The numbers in the west, especially the US are greatly exaggerated.  This epidemic is the biggest money and power grab since Y2K and 9/11.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, sukhumvitneon said:

The numbers in the west, especially the US are greatly exaggerated.  This epidemic is the biggest money and power grab since Y2K and 9/11.

Do you sleep with a tinfoil hat on your head at night, dude?

Do you also believe the US never landed on the moon and the Earth is flat?

Seems about right.

 

The numbers are actually greatly underestimated everywhere. In Italy many people are just dying in their homes (probably Thailand as well), and several studies show the number of victims is probably at least double what the official numbers show (partly because there is still not enough testing, but overall number of deaths is way higher, up to five times higher, than the normal average even without factoring in people who tested positive)).

It is true that many people, apparently, are getting it but not having any symptoms, so mortality rates are probably ballpark correct, but in terms of sheer numbers of dead and infected all numbers you see are way, way below the real numbers.

But sure, come up with some dumb conspiracy theory, a lot easier than figuring out what is really happening.

 

Finally, how retarded is it to call this a power grab? A power grab how? IN Thailand? Hasn't the Junta been in power forever already?

IN America, where the retarded Trump has already been in power forever? Him and his buddies will lose millions thanks to the lock down (and waited too long already to try and safeguard their profits)

You conspiracy theory nuts are so pathetic

Edited by Niteowl45
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