Thailand reports 103 new coronavirus and four new deaths; total cases at 1,978

[spidermike007]

A mere pimple on the cheek on a teenager. For a nation this size, that hosted a million or more Chinese tourists just two months ago to have so few cases is testament to the lack of spread and the devastating effects the heat has on the virus. 

 

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

[Kadilo]

6 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

A mere pimple on the cheek on a teenager. For a nation this size, that hosted a million or more Chinese tourists just two months ago to have so few cases is testament to the lack of spread and the devastating effects the heat has on the virus. 

 

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

BBC Article 5 days old. 
 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1264296/sweden-coronavirus-latest-covid-19-sweden-warning-infections-lockdown

 

This one a few hours ago. 

[Misty]

1 hour ago, Jajazazajaja said:

so where are they hiding these dead bodies then?

Some countries, such as reportedly France, only include people who died in a hospital in their coronavirus death counts.  Anyone know if Thailand has a similar policy?

[transam]

1 hour ago, Jajazazajaja said:

so where are they hiding these dead bodies then?

They don't hang about in LOS, couple of days and you are ash....

[sungod]

Balanced thread, nice to see.

 

He is what i would call a balanced article, UK centric but has some interesting points.

 

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

[DrTuner]

Anybody bother to check if they've further removed details from the reports, like they did to the telling pending test numbers?

[daveAustin]

1 hour ago, trainman34014 said:

I think the numbers of dead are probably fairly accurate because up here in The North there is no evidence to suggest mass deaths occuring; our two local burn sites are no busier than normal at this time of year; indeed, less burning if anything than normal times. 

Likely down to fewer road deaths.

[DrTuner]

21 minutes ago, Misty said:

Some countries, such as reportedly France, only include people who died in a hospital in their coronavirus death counts.  Anyone know if Thailand has a similar policy?

You have to be confirmed case to be counted and the testing criteria already blocks the common Thais that didn't travel, didn't work with tourists or had no contact to previous cases and do not have pneumonia.

Edited April 3, 2020 by DrTuner

[Pravda]

Everyone is skeptical including me. However, just maybe Thai individuals (not the government) are more responsible than people back home.

 

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/04/01/opinion/canada-taking-covid-19-seriously-enough-it-didnt-look-it-my-plane-home 

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, z42 said:

Even in some of the warmer European nations there are 100's dying each day.

Europe is not warm at this time of year, it will be very, very different in June but that's 2 months away.

[Billpro785]

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

Thailand had the first case of Covid-19 recorded outside China on 13th January. As we all know, until very recently the Thai government did little or nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Indeed, by refusing to close the borders to Chinese tourists and even encouraging them to still travel here, it seemed to be actively encouraging the virus to spread further. 

 

We've all seen in Italy, Spain and now the US how alarmingly fast the virus spreads once it gets going, with the number of new cases doubling every few days. And yet somehow that hasn't happened in Thailand, in spite of the government apparently (but hopefully unwittingly) doing its level best to maximise the chances of the pandemic spreading like wildfire here.

 

Some people, I know, will claim that there's a hidden epidemic going on in Thailand with thousands of cases every day being concealed from the public to hide the true numbers, but if that's so then I'm afraid I don't see any evidence of it. We have members with Thai partners all over the country, so where are the live reports from TV members of people collapsing coughing in the streets, or hospitals overflowing with dead bodies and medics desperately triaging patients for the few ventilators available, as is happening in northern Italy and Madrid? I don't see them, so it's not unreasonable to conclude that it's not happening, or on a much smaller scale than some people here seem to think is the case.

 

There may be a number of reasons for this, my favourite explanation is still that the virus doesn't much like the heat and humidity here and so can't transmit itself as effectively as it does in colder, drier climes. The fact that most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors rather than stuck at close quarters in a stuffy small room probably helps as well. It may also be that the original strain back in January was a mild version, while now the world is facing a different, more aggressive mutation, which hasn't has enough time to get going here yet (though the original strain here was presumably the same one that caused Wuhan to be isolated, and that was hardly a mild version given how many deaths it caused).

 

Yes, the official numbers are probably an artifact of limited testing, but they're not inconsistent with what I see when I drive around Pattaya. There's no sign of a plague in action other than the government's response in closing things down, when to judge by what's happened in Europe and the US we should be recording thousands of new cases daily and probably a thousand or more deaths. But I just don't see it happening on the ground, does anybody else?

Excellent, and very sensible post.  A Finnish, and Spain study found 95 percent of cases have been in temperatures between 28, and 50 F . 

[RichardColeman]

Seems to me that Thailand is somewhat shooting itself in the foot with these figures by doing so little tests. If they ARE only doing say 500 tests and every day 100 test positive, I'd pretty much say that is an indicator that 20% of the population have it 

[mixed]

11 minutes ago, Pravda said:

Everyone is skeptical including me. However, just maybe Thai individuals (not the government) are more responsible than people back home.

 

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/04/01/opinion/canada-taking-covid-19-seriously-enough-it-didnt-look-it-my-plane-home 

This is what I'm hearing from countries in the West, it's like they can't comprehend anything going seriously wrong. Australia is a great example, they've had 30 years of growth, no one has gone without for a long time. Young people who have grown up in safe spaces will really struggle.

[ukrules]

40 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

I've seen the videos of what happens when people take no measures against this virus in a colder country, it's incredibly dangerous.

 

Ecuador in this case. There are dead lying in the street for days, when they begin to smell really bad people are cremating them where they lie.

 

The health service is completely overloaded, there's more filled body bags than live patients in at least one of the hospitals, the dead are left in place - even inside peoples houses because nobody is coming to collect them. There was a woman complaining that her husband had died and nobody's come to collect him for multiple days, she wants to arrange a funeral but nobody will come.

 

Very different to Thailand, and yes - we would know.

[jak2002003]

2 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I've seen the videos of what happens when people take no measures against this virus in a colder country, it's incredibly dangerous.

 

Ecuador in this case. There are dead lying in the street for days, when they begin to smell really bad people are cremating them where they lie.

 

The health service is completely overloaded, there's more filled body bags than live patients in at least one of the hospitals, the dead are left in place - even inside peoples houses because nobody is coming to collect them. There was a woman complaining that her husband had died and nobody's come to collect him for multiple days, she wants to arrange a funeral but nobody will come.

 

Very different to Thailand, and yes - we would know.

have you got any links to these reports?

 

 

[Tayaout]

32 minutes ago, Pravda said:

Everyone is skeptical including me. However, just maybe Thai individuals (not the government) are more responsible than people back home.

 

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/04/01/opinion/canada-taking-covid-19-seriously-enough-it-didnt-look-it-my-plane-home 

From what I understand after SARS Canada concluded that airport screening is not effective. Everyone in my home province (Québec) are on lockdown for a couple days already and everything is closed except for supermarket and hospital. My uncle is a dentist and is prohibited to work except for emergency. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Tayaout

[Enoon]

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

But I just don't see it happening on the ground, does anybody else?

 

You won't.

 

10000 deaths over 2 months = 69 per province per month (not counting 4 southern provinces....Islam burials).

 

With crematoriums in virtually every settlement (even the smallest) and city/town sub-district.

 

Who would notice 1 or 2 extra burnings (bear in mind that people are still also dying "as usual") in each one?

 

Even if you concentrate the deaths into more populated "hotspots" what's another 4+ burnings in a busier crematorium with a "healthy" turnover?

 

It's also possible that a significant number of deaths are taking place outside the "system", at home.

 

Which is not unusual.

 

That's a very simplified, coarse analysis, but there is so much "space" for the deaths/cremations to be lost in that they will only register when counted as a whole, collated number, compared to the normal average.

 

And you're not going to get a "real" one of those.

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Enoon

[lovinglife]

My girlfriend was at Hua Hin hospital a week ago with a friend that had a broken wrist after falling of motorbike. Was quieter than normal.

[ukrules]

14 minutes ago, jak2002003 said:

have you got any links to these reports?

You can go and find them yourself, it's very easy, I will explain.

 

Go to Twitter, in the search box enter #Ecuador, press 'ENTER' then click the 'Videos' button then plenty of videos come up - just scroll down to see the horror unfolding over there. They're pretty much all in Spanish of course but if you click the tweet you can read the translation. the videos speak for themselves, it's carnage.

 

I don't know where in Ecuador this is, it looks like it's more provincial than in Quito.

[DrTuner]

13 minutes ago, Enoon said:

 

You won't.

 

10000 deaths over past 2 months = 69 per province per month (not counting 4 southern provinces....Islam burials).

 

With crematoriums in virtually every settlement (even the smallest) and city/town sub-district.

 

Who would notice 1 or 2 extra burnings (bear in mind that people are still also dying "as usual") in each one?

 

Even if you concentrate the deaths into more populated "hotspots" what's another 4+ burnings in a busier crematorium with a "healthy" turnover?

 

That's a very simplified, coarse analysis, but there is so much "space" for the deaths/cremations to be lost in that they will only register when counted as a whole, collated number, compared to the normal average.

 

And you're not going to get a "real" one of those.

 

 

Thanks, I was about to write the same. It's still small percentages from normal so easily burned away. I will try to plug in some numbers and guesses to the SEIR model today to get an estimate when the bodies start to stack up. Although the social distancing and curfew measures might have mitigated the worse peak.

 

Everybody can give it a go: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

[Basil B]

I doubt any country has accurate figures, here in the UK they are only recording those that had tested positive and died in hospital.

 

If Thailand's figures are anywhere as accurate as the UK you are only 20 days behind us...

 

And a night curfew is not going to really reduce the upward trend in numbers, even the UK's measures is only like putting a tuiniqua on, at some point you need to let the pressure  off and it will start to bleed again. 

[Basil B]

10 minutes ago, lovinglife said:

My girlfriend was at Hua Hin hospital a week ago with a friend that had a broken wrist after falling of motorbike. Was quieter than normal.

Hospital is the last place I would want to be right now, lot of reports of people catching it while in hospital.

[samran]

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

Thailand had the first case of Covid-19 recorded outside China on 13th January. As we all know, until very recently the Thai government did little or nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Indeed, by refusing to close the borders to Chinese tourists and even encouraging them to still travel here, it seemed to be actively encouraging the virus to spread further. 

 

We've all seen in Italy, Spain and now the US how alarmingly fast the virus spreads once it gets going, with the number of new cases doubling every few days. And yet somehow that hasn't happened in Thailand, in spite of the government apparently (but hopefully unwittingly) doing its level best to maximise the chances of the pandemic spreading like wildfire here.

 

Some people, I know, will claim that there's a hidden epidemic going on in Thailand with thousands of cases every day being concealed from the public to hide the true numbers, but if that's so then I'm afraid I don't see any evidence of it. We have members with Thai partners all over the country, so where are the live reports from TV members of people collapsing coughing in the streets, or hospitals overflowing with dead bodies and medics desperately triaging patients for the few ventilators available, as is happening in northern Italy and Madrid? I don't see them, so it's not unreasonable to conclude that it's not happening, or on a much smaller scale than some people here seem to think is the case.

 

There may be a number of reasons for this, my favourite explanation is still that the virus doesn't much like the heat and humidity here and so can't transmit itself as effectively as it does in colder, drier climes. The fact that most Thais spend a lot of time outdoors rather than stuck at close quarters in a stuffy small room probably helps as well. It may also be that the original strain back in January was a mild version, while now the world is facing a different, more aggressive mutation, which hasn't has enough time to get going here yet (though the original strain here was presumably the same one that caused Wuhan to be isolated, and that was hardly a mild version given how many deaths it caused).

 

Yes, the official numbers are probably an artifact of limited testing, but they're not inconsistent with what I see when I drive around Pattaya. There's no sign of a plague in action other than the government's response in closing things down, when to judge by what's happened in Europe and the US we should be recording thousands of new cases daily and probably a thousand or more deaths. But I just don't see it happening on the ground, does anybody else?

I suspect we'll never know the real numbers, and I think that many people - including myself - find it hard to trust the current Thai government.

 

Having said that I suspect your post is the closest sensible analysis we are likely to see. We also don't see international agencies questioning the numbers coming out of Thailand, which provides some satisfaction.

 

What I will add, and many people probably don't realise, is that Thailand for many decades has been at the centre for internationally led tropical diseases research and AIDS research and mitigation. The US in particular have a large presence here in that area. As a result of these factors, Thailand's infrastructure to deal with this particular issue is probably one of the better ones in the world, and I suspect that has helped more than most places.

 

[malibukid]

lucky i am not in the States

[sameasb4]

And here is the source...

 

 

[pantsonfire]

The government cant alert the country due to so many small businesses require money to survive.  They continue to operate as the fear of dying of hunger for their family is greater than getting Covid-19.  

 

The government, wont announce such alarming figures as it will affect majority of the public.  Having a curfew is just really supporting the poor so that they can continue to operate without causing much demand for them to ask the government for support.      

 

 

[OneeyedJohn]

33 minutes ago, lovinglife said:

My girlfriend was at Hua Hin hospital a week ago with a friend that had a broken wrist after falling of motorbike. Was quieter than normal.

Agreed, my hospital ( the municipal cheap one one )  in Chiang Rai was quieter than normal, was in and out under an hour where normally it is 3 hours +

8 days ago.

Edited April 3, 2020 by OneeyedJohn

[OneeyedJohn]

25 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Hospital is the last place I would want to be right now, lot of reports of people catching it while in hospital.

Obviously no more than a 100 or so.

And Thailand has 1348 public and private hospitals.

Edited April 3, 2020 by OneeyedJohn

[Dogmatix]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

correct , the current rate seems to around 200 tests per day of which 50% are positive, no report of testing those that have died of viral pneumonia but have not already been tested

 

That is very obviously exactly what is happening and it seems very effective in averting panic.  But it can only work as long as the upcountry hospitals don't get overwhelmed with cases of viral pneumonia and medical staff are taken ill in large numbers.

[wasabi]

Maybe I am in the minority but I think the Thai government is doing a fairly good job given the economic and cultural constraints in place. We all know the Covid test numbers do not reflect reality. They are a sample of a sample but as others have said there are no signs of a crisis happening that I can see or have heard about so what is the harm? The store closings, and messaging about safety has been effective as one could expect in my opinion. Thailand has always done things the Thai way which includes... well unique interpretations of the facts and magic realism also known as TiT This is Thailand. They did it in WWII and never got colonized to any significant extent so maybe there's something to suspension of disbelief common here. But don't misunderstand, I am not an apologist for some of the backwards or even dangerous things that go on in this country it's just that I have learned to live with them or I would not be living here at all. If we look at what's happening in so called 1st world countries like the USA and UK it seems like Thailand is not such a bad place to be right now.

 

Now if they institute a 24 hour lockdown which has proposed I will feel significantly less pleased. However my understanding is even with that at least someone can go get food. Certainly not pleasant to think about it though.

Edited April 3, 2020 by wasabi