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UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

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UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The deadliest peak of Britain’s coronavirus outbreak could be on Easter Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Friday.

 

When asked about reports that the death rate could peak on April 12, Hancock told Sky: “I defer to the scientists on the exact predictions, I’m not going to steer you away from that. That is one perfectly possible outcome.”

 

Reuters reported on Thursday that the British government’s worst case scenario envisaged the COVID-19 death toll of 50,000 if self-isolation was not fully adhered to and that the worst day for deaths was projected to be April 12.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-04-03

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What the UK has done is apply a turquia, at some point they will have to ease it and the bleeding will start again. 

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Been consulting Scripture have you Matt?

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UK peak of coronavirus outbreak could be Easter Sunday, health minister

Come on! You can't leave people in the dark, surely you can do better than that. What time exactly on Easter Sunday

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They hope,somehow i don't think it's so easy to predict.

 

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15 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

They are using predictive modeling. 

 

The salient point is that between now and 12 April the death rate will increase day on day.

Nobody can predict an exact day that infections will start reducing, because a virus is unpredictable, and for a modelling you will need exact numbers of new infections which nobody has.

 

The statement looks more like, it's running out of control and from that day will reduce the numbers we announce.

 

19 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

For weeks the Government ran a ‘herd immunity’ experiment, they have now done a U-turn on that, but the virus has not.

You have a link to that statement, because as far as I know they considered herd immunity, but that was rejected even before it was implemented.

 

Much different from they ran an experiment

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1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

On the matter of predictive modelling, I feel it not my job to fill the gaps in your lack of knowledge on the subject. 

 

On the matter of the Government's 'herd immunity experiment', I refer you to the widely published press reports on the matter. 

 

I'm sorry you don't like the word 'experiment' but trying to combat a completely new virus with herd immunity is an experiment, a very callous experiment but an experiment all the same. They might have been better advised to run some predictive modelling, but that gets us back to square 1. 

So I take it that you don't have any credible sources for your drivel then?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You dp undertand the difference between a proposal and running an experiment, don't you?

 

Well. I think not.

 

 

The UK backs away from “herd immunity” coronavirus proposal amid blowback

 

The UK’s chief science adviser suggested allowing the coronavirus to spread to build immunity. Government ministers said they’ll promote self-isolation instead.

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Here's the question the government needs to answer. 

 

They have made a prediction of when the peak deaths are expected. 

 

How many deaths do they now expect?

 

Putting aside the implausible idea that their scientific advisors didn't provide a number and nobody in government bothered asking, their 50,000 with a blame the public caveat attached needs to be put into perspective. 

 

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10 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

On the matter of predictive modelling, I feel it not my job to fill the gaps in your lack of knowledge on the subject. 

 

On the matter of the Government's 'herd immunity experiment', I refer you to the widely published press reports on the matter. 

 

I'm sorry you don't like the word 'experiment' but trying to combat a completely new virus with herd immunity is an experiment, a very callous experiment but an experiment all the same. They might have been better advised to run some predictive modelling, but that gets us back to square 1. 

Why not explain your first paragraph?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, faraday said:

Why not explain your first paragraph?

 

 

What am I your math tutor already?

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